How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Astrophel]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm going to wade back into the Brexit issue to tie back into the context of this war and why I brought it up in the first place.  I said this:

One response to this was a perfect illustration of what I was speaking about.  Specifically, a point of view that is primarily emotional in nature and not based on a solid factual foundation.  Challenging the position on a factual basis, therefore, produces an emotional response instead of a reasoned factual one.  The most likely course of action by the one challenged is name calling and/or leaving the discussion in a huff in order to protect the emotionally held belief system from change.  That is "cognitive dissonance" in a nutshell.

The easiest example in the case of Brexit is supporters claim that pulling out of the EU would result in a sudden and massive influx of money into the British treasury from a combination of EU tax relief and increased economic activity freed up from EU regulations.  The argument never stood up to even cursory, common sense challenges, not to mention the application of detailed economic study.  The pro-Brexit movement leaders could have conceded this point and countered the long term gain as worth the price.  However, admitting Brexit would be detrimental to Britain's near term economic future would have likely lost them a huge chunk of support and so the pro-Brexit propaganda used the usual bag of tricks (lies, blame, insults, "whataboutisms", etc.) to maintain an obviously false promise.  Now that reality is crashing down on the British economy those same people use those same tricks in order to avoid taking responsibility for the costs of Brexit.  Brexit isn't to blame for the FUBAR at Dover, it's bad weather (just the most recent example).

Now, what does all of this have to do with Russia and why this was brought up in the first place?  Two things. 

First, Russian disinformation campaigns are not intended to sway large amounts of people to do something they aren't already predisposed to doing.  No, they specifically target "fence sitters" to increase the likelihood Russia gets a result it views as favorable.  Amplifying existing domestic disinformation campaigns is the most effective way to do that.  In the case of Brexit, all Russia had to do was help convince 2 people out of 100 that the British economy would be better off without the EU.  Given the fact that most people understand economics as well as they do quantum physics, this isn't very hard to do.  There is no way to know how much Russia's influence helped push Brexit over the 50% threshold, but it was greater than zero and in the end Russia got what it wanted.  Whatever Russia spent was well invested.

The second reason for bringing this whole thing up is because it shows the difference in scale of cognitive dissonance in Russia compared to Britain, the US, France, Poland, and even Hungary and Turkey.  In Russia there appears to be no significant counter to the irrational belief that Russia is powerful and is right to take whatever it wants however it wants.  Even in Hungary and Turkey there is significant pushback against this sort of mindset, with the autocratic leadership there maintaining their existence by a small amount (+/-5%).  So while it is true that cognitive dissonance about national identity is not a uniquely Russian affliction, it suffers from it to a degree that few countries on Earth do. 

The fundamental point for bringing this whole thing up in the first place is to argue that no matter what the specifics of Russia's defeat in Ukraine turn out to be, the Russian population is unlikely to change its mindset because they are not inclined to do it on their own and nobody will be able to force them into doing so.  Post war Russia will look more like post WW1 Germany vs. post WW2 Germany.  And we all know which Germany was the better one.

Steve

There is a lot I could say on this matter and maybe I will if it is tolerated. To develop one of your themes, the orchestrators of misinformation have recognised the basic fallibility of a democracy in that we count all the votes.  The "enemy" targets segments of voters who may just be enough to swing a few percent and make a majority.

In the Brexit case the Brexit campaign targeted, among others, the anti-immigrant voters.  A future candidate for Prime Minister even looked the electorate straight in the eye and asserted that 80 million Turks were on their way.  In such segments people have a strong pre-existing bias and can be persuaded to elevate the issue to the top of their list and vote according to their instincts. Predisposed to bias, people do not want to deal with the facts because everybody brings their own facts to the fight in a democracy and so facts are relatively less important than their feelings.

Sovereignty was another segment -- English Exceptionalism.  Spending money on the Health Service another.

At the back of this is the money and effort spent over decades to compromise key influencers such that they can be pressured to broadcast the party line at the appropriate moment.  I think we all have our suspicions about these individuals and I have seen the compromise tactic being operated most systematically in China, but Russia is notorious too.  In China and Russia in the 90s they tried to compromise everybody who went there - you never know when it might come in handy.  Of course the best influencer is someone who may actually, plausibly, believe what he or she says but let us not underestimate the amount of blackmail going on.  In London we also have hard evidence of money changing hands.

In the Ukraine situation the game changer for me was when Poland opened the borders for the Ukrainian children with their mothers and grandmothers.  The EU followed and suddenly the russians were on the back foot both militarily and morally.  They never expected to lose the lightening attack on Kiev and never expected Europe to take ALL the refugees.  The fact that the children and families are safe must be a decisive morale booster for those who stayed to fight.  But the narrative changed too: Ukraine was seen by the majority to be fighting a just war, and while russian propaganda still seeks to engage swing voters they have lost the information war with the majority.

Edited April 3, 2023 by Astrophel
English Exceptionalism

[akd]

FPV trench assault:

 

[Nastypastie]

First time poster, long time lurker. Firstly I'd like to thank you all for providing me such an insightful and diverse range of opinions and resources throughout this conflict. Really, its been amazing and this has remained a solid go to place for information. Secondly I'd like to thank Steve and his crew for taking the time to moderate this thread (as well as the many hours playing the amazing games).

In regards to the Russian influence discussion I would just like to add that a large part of the damage Russia intends to inflict with this campaign is in having it be so obvious (and often low rent). They stir up one part of society, and they create the illusion that if we stop the influence campaign then the problems might magically go away. The problem is that these are very real perceived issues that are being inflamed here. The campaign itself being so obvious makes it that much harder to rationally address what is at stake here and I feel is a large part of the strategy.

Lets not forget that Putin is being an opportunist here. This is no direct strategy with a specific goal in mind. He's aiming to increase the probability that favorable circumstances shake loose on their own.

[Yet]

48 minutes ago, poesel said:

Aaaand Steve already said it much better

Not going to argue that, but post WWI Germany wasn't that bad. Without the global recession in 1929 there probably wouldn't have been WWII (at least not the one we know and love ).

omg.. lets take this the best way possible and not too serious..  you are soooo NOT saying that post WWI Germany was the better one because it offered us great books and games to enjoy.;)

[Ts4EVER]

7 minutes ago, Yet said:

omg.. lets take this the best way possible and not too serious..  you are soooo NOT saying that post WWI Germany was the better one because it offered us great books and games to enjoy.;)

Probably means the Weimar Republic?

[BlackMoria]

Interesting story of a Ukrainian M109 SP gun taking out a russian helicopter that touched down to drop or pick something up and got nailed by a 155 round just before it lifted off.   https://www.technology.org/2023/04/03/can-artillery-guns-take-down-a-helicopter-m109-paladin-destroyed-a-russian-aircraft/

 

[Seminole]

4 hours ago, Yet said:

so if the goal is 'population drainage' it is excellent.

 

For some reason my phone doesn’t want to post the Russian graph as a picture.  Median trend is also down:
 

https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/2_Probabilistic Projections/1_Population/1_Total Population/Russian Federation.png

[Astrophel]

2 minutes ago, Seminole said:

 

For some reason my phone doesn’t want to post the Russian graph as a picture.  Median trend is also down:
 

https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/2_Probabilistic Projections/1_Population/1_Total Population/Russian Federation.png

This is classic misinformation.  With millions having left voluntarily for the west to continue their children's education, never mind the deportations to the former USSR, how else might an extrapolation look?

Ukrainians in exile I have met have the intention to return and get back to loving.  A baby boom is in prospect assuming the russian run.

[The_MonkeyKing]

new record on bodies in a single trench for me: 

 

[BlackMoria]

Another story of interest concerning chances of China reclaiming Siberia.   https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-borders-need-to-be-redrawn/why-china-will-reclaim-siberia

 

[Battlefront.com]

As Cpl Steiner has been around on this forum for 20+ years, I feel the need to respond directly:

10 hours ago, Cpl Steiner said:

Wow, just read this. As a Brit who voted for Brexit, I think maybe Steve should stick to military matters as this is pretty insulting and frankly bat **** crazy. My reason for voting Brexit, for the record, is that I believe in democracy and the EU is profoundly undemocratic. We got rid of a king in the 1600s because he was overruling our parliament. The EU over the passed decades has imposed thousands of laws on the UK we had to accept by treaty obligation. It was always about democracy and sovereignty for me and many others, not stupidity, irrationality, or Russian manipulation.

I live in a country that is founded on rejecting external authority (in particular, the authority of your predecessors as it happens).  I also live in a part of the country that started the revolution and still idolizes it.  This same part of the country also goes through bouts of "the rest of the country is dragging us down, let them go".  Our country CONSTANTLY debates about the balance of powers between local, state, and national levels of governance.  I think it is both understandable and healthy to have these sorts of beliefs and debates.  Therefore, I don't think you were stupid or irrational for exploring Brexit.

Pro-Brexit voters are not necessarily stupid, irrational, or influenced by Russian propaganda.  Not all pro-Brexit voters are racist either.  However, it is highly probable that 1.9% of Britons who voted for Brexit fit into one or more of those categories.  Russia just had to help convince them to show up and vote for Brexit for whatever reason.  As I said, there is no way to know how much Russia helped make it happen, but they clearly put in the effort and reaped the reward.

Steve

 

[akd]

12 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

new record on bodies in a single trench for me: 

 

Interesting, as it seems to show a position completely neutralized by drones and artillery alone.

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

This is classic misinformation.  With millions having left voluntarily for the west to continue their children's education, never mind the deportations to the former USSR, how else might an extrapolation look?

Ukrainians in exile I have met have the intention to return and get back to loving.  A baby boom is in prospect assuming the russian run.

Yes, and by all historical measures the 1-1.5m that left Russia are not going to come back.  At least not to the same degree as Ukrainians.

That said, what matters is the military impact of the exchanges on the battlefield.  Longer term impacts on demographics should never be a legitimate consideration for warfare.  It is for Russia, thus proving my point

Steve

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

Interesting, as it seems to show a position completely neutralized by drones and artillery alone.

Voice beyond the cadre says that one Mavic wiped out whole unit of 10 wagners with grenade dropping. Also he says we take out daily with Mavics 5-10 enemies as minimum

Edited April 3, 2023 by Haiduk

[A Canadian Cat]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, it is highly probable that 1.9% of Britons who voted for Brexit fit into one or more of those categories.  Russia just had to help convince them to show up and vote for Brexit for whatever reason. 

When the margins are that close a malicious actor can actually change the outcome. The thing is even if they fail to "get the result" they still win because they have sewn division that doesn't go away. Spending time managing those divisions takes time away from paying attention to said malicious actor.

[Seminole]

20 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

This is classic misinformation.  With millions having left voluntarily for the west to continue their children's education, never mind the deportations to the former USSR, how else might an extrapolation look?

Ukrainians in exile I have met have the intention to return and get back to loving.  A baby boom is in prospect assuming the russian run.

But the war did happen and millions have left.  One can readily find an extrapolation from a few years ago:

Source	UN (World Population Prospects 2019)
Date	23 Aug 2021

 

Ukraine's population peaked in 1990 with 51.46 mn people after Ukraine's population decreased year by year. The Ukraine population is projected to reach 40.88 million in 2030 and decrease further to 35.22 million in 2050 and 24.41 million by 2100.

That was prior to current stage of the conflict, which has only made things demonstrably worse and dimmed the prospects for improvement.  
 

How is it ‘misinformation’ to cite this analysis?

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

Interesting, as it seems to show a position completely neutralized by drones and artillery alone.

Yes.  And the defenders were quiet spread out too.  I wonder how long and how much attention was required to get this result.

Also, I suspect that quite a few retreated from the trench.  There's a couple of spots where there's abandoned weapons (a pile in one case) with no soldiers anywhere nearby.  Either they abandoned their weapons after being wounded and died somewhere else in the trench, or they ran away.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Wagners captured administartive quarter of Bakhmut, completely destroying city hall building. In ruins of it they poked Russian and Wagner flags. Prigozhyn after this made a statement that "Wagner juridiaclly captured Bakhmut"

Here is approximate current map, NOEL assums UKR troops could withdraw behind railways to avoid encirclment in northern part of the city. 

And we have repeating of Soledar story. General Syrskiy called "the fake" news about Russian captured city center. Either lower chiefs again didn't want to say "bad news" upward or this is just denial of reality in order to "don't harras the society".

Edited April 3, 2023 by Haiduk

[akd]

Did Ukrainians possibly demo the admin building before or after withdrawing?  It looks rather thoroughly demolished compared to surrounding buildings. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

Not going to argue that, but post WWI Germany wasn't that bad. Without the global recession in 1929 there probably wouldn't have been WWII (at least not the one we know and love ).

I agree.  The problem with the Weimar government was it had some shortcomings which were exploited by various nefarious groups.  Nazis being only one of them.  Coupled with economic suffering, especially the amount perceived to be the fault of Britain and France, provided the fuel that led to the destruction of Weimar and the rise of the Third Reich.  Which is why pretty much every historian of any worth thinks the way Germany was treated after the war was counter productive.

I did a thesis paper on this back in university.  Specifically how much the "War Guilt Clause" led directly to WW2.  Which ties in directly to...

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

If that is so, and I happen to agree, did the west have a better long term solution not involving a war like we are seeing? Turning Ukraine into an armed western camp might have been a deterrent. But short of that, Russia was on course for a WW1 type finale even with all types of "talks" and "sanctions". Maybe if the entire world turned them into a complete pariah and stop all relations, this would not have stopped the enviable. So maybe what is playing out is one of the most illogical logical events in history. It's as if Russian is addicted to self destruction. But like an addict, they know they are, but continue addictive behavior because they can't figure out there is a brighter side to life. 

I for one have no idea how to contain Russian aggression long term.  As noted above, trying to hold Russians accountable for their action without also being able to ensure they have a functional democracy is not likely to work.  Breading resentment is a real risk and I don't see that doing anything positive for the long term.

Steve

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Did Ukrainians possibly demo the admin building before or after withdrawing?  It looks rather thoroughly demolished compared to surrounding buildings. 

Somebody wrote we have demolished it, and as if a video is available, but I didn't see it. Maybe this commentator confused it with other known episode, when we destroyed some building with wagners inside.

Edited April 3, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Interesting story of a Ukrainian M109 SP gun taking out a russian helicopter that touched down to drop or pick something up and got nailed by a 155 round just before it lifted off.   https://www.technology.org/2023/04/03/can-artillery-guns-take-down-a-helicopter-m109-paladin-destroyed-a-russian-aircraft/

 

Like helicopters need something else to worry about!  Sounds like a perfect combination of Ukrainian assets being already active in the area the helicopters landed in.  It also sounds like they took far too long to land and get out of there.  When close to the front time is not on a helicopter's side.

Steve

[Seminole]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, and by all historical measures the 1-1.5m that left Russia are not going to come back.  At least not to the same degree as Ukrainians.

The Kyiv Independent news desk

February 28, 2023

One in three Ukrainian refugees in the European Union ultimately wants to return home. At the same time, a similar proportion would like to remain in their host countries, according to a new survey released on Feb. 28 by the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA). 

 …

According to the UN Refugee Agency, since the beginning of Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine, more than 8 million Ukrainian refugees have left for another European country, and about 4.8 million have applied for temporary protection in one of the EU countries.

 

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That said, what matters is the military impact of the exchanges on the battlefield.  Longer term impacts on demographics should never be a legitimate consideration for warfare.  It is for Russia, thus proving my point

Steve

Both Russia and Ukraine were in demographic decline already, the war has only exacerbated this.  The projections remain with a steeper decline in Ukraine than Russia, and Ukraine starts from a much smaller position.  This matters to Ukraine too.

What piqued my curiosity on this subject was an age graph I saw posted that suggested the population of 20-somethings has cratered in Ukraine. That seems militarily significant, especially when the Russians appear bent on attrition as their only hope.  
 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-deaths-demographic-populations-9db5hg7sq

Researchers say the grinding battle and those ahead will make both Ukraine and Russia unrecognisable for generations to come. “It really is awful if you look at Ukraine’s demographic tree. There was already a really tiny proportion of the population in their twenties. Russia has a similar problem,” said Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics and an adviser to Zelensky’s administration.

“Twenty years ago it was the end of the 1990s, the collapse of the Soviet Union, really tough times, particularly in Ukraine. People just put off having children. So we were looking at losing 33 per cent of the population even without talking about the war.”

The graph I was mentioning doesn’t show online anymore, but it was screen capped:

This Russian ‘journalist’s’ tweet has it:

https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1642413293896716289?s=20

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Nastypastie said:

First time poster, long time lurker. Firstly I'd like to thank you all for providing me such an insightful and diverse range of opinions and resources throughout this conflict. Really, its been amazing and this has remained a solid go to place for information. Secondly I'd like to thank Steve and his crew for taking the time to moderate this thread (as well as the many hours playing the amazing games).

In regards to the Russian influence discussion I would just like to add that a large part of the damage Russia intends to inflict with this campaign is in having it be so obvious (and often low rent). They stir up one part of society, and they create the illusion that if we stop the influence campaign then the problems might magically go away. The problem is that these are very real perceived issues that are being inflamed here. The campaign itself being so obvious makes it that much harder to rationally address what is at stake here and I feel is a large part of the strategy.

Lets not forget that Putin is being an opportunist here. This is no direct strategy with a specific goal in mind. He's aiming to increase the probability that favorable circumstances shake loose on their own.

Welcome!  Thanks for chiming in.  Whether this is a one off post or the start of your participation, all contributions are welcomed.

Russia's behavior is opportunistic, for sure.  They take their cues from genuine domestic issues and amplify and antagonize both sides as much as possible.  For example, Russian ops have been caught backing both US White Nationalists as well as Black Lives Matter, two social forces that are diametrically opposed to each other.  They don't care who does what on any particular issue, they just want conflict.  Preferably a civil war.

However, there are times when Russia wants a specific result.  Brexit is an example we just talked about.  Before the vote Britain was tearing itself apart and causing great harm to its relationship with European states.  Even if Brexit had been defeated, the turmoil caused was a win for Russia.  The fact that Brexit passed, ushering in years of disruption and economic pain, was certainly an even better result for Russia.

And this is exactly why some of us were quite surprised by Putin's decision for full invasion of Ukraine.  Spending money to groom movements and people in the West to undermine their own best self interests was an extremely sound and sustainable strategy.  He almost couldn't fail to secure a win of some sort regardless of the chosen circumstances.  Absolutely not the case with a full on war. 

The West should not be glad that Russia invaded Ukraine, but it should be thankful there's now a way to repay Russia for all the kindness it has shown the West over the last 20+ years.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Seminole said:

The Kyiv Independent news desk

February 28, 2023

One in three Ukrainian refugees in the European Union ultimately wants to return home. At the same time, a similar proportion would like to remain in their host countries, according to a new survey released on Feb. 28 by the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA). 

Yup, well aware of this.  Two caveats with it, however.  One, people are most likely to say what they want long term based on what they are experiencing short term.  Once the war in Ukraine is over opinions might change.  Especially if Ukraine progresses in the right direction.  Economic opportunities could be better in Ukraine under the right circumstances.  Too soon to know one way or the other.  What we do know is a large number of Ukrainians who left early in the war have already returned.

Second caveat is the one I explicitly mentioned about proportions.  It's difficult to say, but it would seem that Russians who left Russia won't be going back in any significant number.  This has been the trend for the last 40 years, so with Russia becoming the Fourth Reich I doubt it will encourage a change in that mindset.

8 minutes ago, Seminole said:

Both Russia and Ukraine were in demographic decline already, the war has only exacerbated this.  The projections remain with a steeper decline in Ukraine than Russia, and Ukraine starts from a much smaller position.  This matters to Ukraine too.

Absolutely.  However, one of the reasons behind the flight of Ukrainians over the years has been the result of the economic warfare waged by Russia.  The country has been deliberately pushed into being a difficult and not very fair place to live.  That has been changing since Maidan, but there is also a war at the same time so there's that as well.

In short, Ukraine has some serious demographic issues.  In fact, most of the "industrialized" world does.  How much of Ukraine's specific problem is endemic and predetermined compared to artificially imposed by Russia is yet to be determined.

As an aside, the population gurus in my state constantly get their 10 year projections wrong.  My town was slated to have a 15% net reduction since the last Census, but when the numbers were crunched from this Census we had a slight population increase.

Steve