How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

It's always been questionable in my mind that some economists and commentators reckon that globalisation is a force that prevents war. It adds a layer to the decision making but trade as an absolute block on major powers not going into conflict due to economic loss? Seems like economic study/dark arts trying rationalise human decision making, that wealth is all that matters to everybody, especially at a time of violent crisis?

If I cast my mind back to my Uni days about 20 years ago (I'm old now), you have three primary causes for conflict to break out:

- Nationalism / Territorial - "I disagree with you owning that piece of land"

- Ideological - "I disagree with the way you think and do things"

- Ethnic - "I disagree with your religion, language, upbringing, race... I disagree with who you are."

The idea was conflict in 19th and early 20th century was primarily driven by the first point. This switched over to ideological in the run up to WW2 and the Cold War. The post Cold War era has been focused more on Ethnic issues driving conflicts. Now they are generalisations and it's pretty easy to argue that for many conflicts there are more than one driver in play or one is in play while others are used as political smoke screen by political elites to justify entering a conflict. Not to mention outliers or the belligerent sides having different perceptions on what is driving the conflict.

There was no reason not to think ethnic driven issues would continue to be the primary driver most conflict into the 2020's but I think the dangling of the idea of USA pullback/isolationism during the Trump years emboldened a bunch of other global players to start pushing against the west as the 'world cop' was potentially off the beat. Nationalism and Ideology (latter a smokescreen?) have been able to pop up again as a result. If we find ourselves in another 1939 situation but this time the world opts to let it happen because, "we want our trade numbers to stay strong", I think is a bigger cross against humanity and our political systems. The fallout of not responding to unwarranted aggression is also likely to have a bigger impact on global stability.

Mark Twain may have been right all along... "The more I learn about people, the more I like my dog."

Depends on the dog, there are some pretty shady dogs.  To this list I would add “Identity” - who we are.  So much of this war has been about Russian internal identity that I am beginning to think of it as the major cause.  Ukraine was one of Russia’s best customers:

https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/ukr/partner/rus

And this was even after 2014.  We have already debunked the resources grab argument.  There is no real ideological difference here.  And ethnicity is also pretty weak as they were essentially the same ethnic parity as Canada and the US.   So we are back to identity.  Russia started a war because of who they think they are and a driving need to sustain that certainty.  It was in direct collision with Ukrainian certainty about who they are.  And here we are.

 

 

[Astrophel]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good article in Politico on the realignment of the world's nations due to the war in Ukraine.  Primary focus is on relationships with China and the changing mindset of key European nations such as Germany and France away from trade at any cost.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/28/allies-against-china-europe-putin-xi-00089077

What I find most interesting in this article... no real mention of Russian influence.  Seems Russia is out of the game.  Go figure.

Steve

The politico article is well worth a read.  Thanks for bringing it to our attention.

I am surprised how far China is with their construction of an ideology and vision for competing with the west.  We should do some deep thinking about the effectiveness of our democratic models, especially the two party systems in UK and USA particularly.  A number of democracies in the world are teetering on the edge - South Africa particularly, but Brazil, India, and several others including some close to home like Hungary.

[sross112]

13 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

The politico article is well worth a read.  Thanks for bringing it to our attention.

I am surprised how far China is with their construction of an ideology and vision for competing with the west.  We should do some deep thinking about the effectiveness of our democratic models, especially the two party systems in UK and USA particularly.  A number of democracies in the world are teetering on the edge - South Africa particularly, but Brazil, India, and several others including some close to home like Hungary.

I'm curious. Are you advocating a one party system like China, Russia, (enter monarchy or totalitarian dictatorship here), or one with literally dozens like South Africa, Brazil and India? Curious as to which success story we should model ourselves after.

Personally, I am a very big fan of a monarchy in the US, but only if I get to be the monarch!  

[billbindc]

34 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Depends on the dog, there are some pretty shady dogs.  To this list I would add “Identity” - who we are.  So much of this war has been about Russian internal identity that I am beginning to think of it as the major cause.  Ukraine was one of Russia’s best customers:

https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/ukr/partner/rus

And this was even after 2014.  We have already debunked the resources grab argument.  There is no real ideological difference here.  And ethnicity is also pretty weak as they were essentially the same ethnic parity as Canada and the US.   So we are back to identity.  Russia started a war because of who they think they are and a driving need to sustain that certainty.  It was in direct collision with Ukrainian certainty about who they are.  And here we are.

 

 

 

res·sen·ti·ment rə-ˌsäⁿ-tē-ˈmäⁿ 

 

: deep-seated resentment, frustration, and hostility accompanied by a sense of being powerless to express these feelings directly

 

Recent Examples on the Web

"But in between justice and ressentiment is a rich, gray area where schadenfreude can serve a valuable political purpose."
—Lee M. Pierce, The Conversation, 14 Oct. 2020

"This weaponizing of ressentiment — a term borrowed from German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche, capturing the deep grievance produced by feelings of both envy and humiliation — is possibly the defining theme in global politics right now."
—Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post, 26 June 2018 Tharoor, Washington Post, 26 June 2018

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel (old photo in major rank), Dmitriy Lisitskiy, 2nd air-assault battalion commander of 234th air-assault regiment of 7th air-assult division (mountain), Southern military district. He participated in Ilovaisk massacre in 2014 and after this was awarded with the title Hero of Russian Federation.  Allegedly shot himself in own appartments in Russia on 26th of March 2023. Information about his death in combat is not true. Reportedly because of heavy losses in his unit he had conflict with survived personnel of own battlion and as if some investigation was started against him for such style of command. As if because of this he was in deep depression and had commited suicide

 

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Seminole]

10 hours ago, Ithikial_AU said:

It's always been questionable in my mind that some economists and commentators reckon that globalisation is a force that prevents war. It adds a layer to the decision making but trade as an absolute block on major powers not going into conflict due to economic loss? Seems like economic study/dark arts trying rationalise human decision making, that wealth is all that matters to everybody, especially at a time of violent crisis

I think Smedley Butler had it right, in that you could stop war if capital was subject to conscription.  If the oligarchs in any society saw their wealth subject to immediate confiscation and liquidation to fund the war we'd probably find a different way to solve most problems we try to solve with bombs today.

But I think there's no chance of seeing this implemented (at home, or anywhere abroad).

 

[dan/california]

Pretty good psy ops, if true.

[Eddy]

Latest preliminary lessons from RUSI. Haven't read it yet but appears to about the intelligence and unconventional war

Preliminary Lessons from Russia's Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022-February 2023 (rusi.org)

[cesmonkey]

Going on today:

 

[The_Capt]

Just now, Eddy said:

Latest preliminary lessons from RUSI. Haven't read it yet but appears to about the intelligence and unconventional war

Preliminary Lessons from Russia's Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022-February 2023 (rusi.org)

This is pure gold.

[The_Capt]

Among the other tasks that Major General Kulinich is alleged to have received from the FSB through Sivkovich was to exert influence on the higher political leadership of Ukraine to convince it of the need to abandon the course of joining NATO and to adopt a neutral status just prior to the invasion.30 Refusal to join NATO, according to the Russian special services’ plan, along with other Ukrainian concessions to Russia, should have been the impetus for anti-government protests, similar to the Revolution of Dignity in 2014, when President Yanukovych refused to integrate Ukraine into the EU. Mass protests were intended to simplify the task of the Russian special services to destabilise Ukraine internally and paralyse the system of state and military administration, providing the conditions for a Russian military invasion.

https://static.rusi.org/202303-SR-Unconventional-Operations-Russo-Ukrainian-War-web-final.pdf.pdf  (pg 9).  So when your opponent is working this hard to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and EU...we should probably do exactly that.  Further this piece is presenting a lot of evidence that Russia was going to do this thing one way or the other.  Once does not defensively build decades old networks and cells aimed at the level of general political buggery happening here - and even if it could be sold as defensive, one normally waits for an actual crisis before pulling the trigger, not a Tues in Feb because "reasons".

[Astrophel]

47 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I'm curious as to which success story we should model ourselves after.

My own preference at the moment is to build around the proportional representation democratic model we are familiar with in Europe.  Decisions tend to get taken reflecting a broad range of views and after thorough debate, rather than reflecting partisan ideologies.

 

[Haiduk]

On 3/28/2023 at 5:16 PM, Chibot Mk IX said:

Two questions here, not sure if these have been discussed before:

1, While we have occasionally seen some cases of AFV deploy smoke, neither side has used artillery smoke rounds to generate a smoke screen protecting the attack, what is the reason behind that?

 

2, For the BMP-1/2 used by both side (except new built BMP-2M), none seems to carry turret roof ATGM launcher. Are these ATGM Launchers removed from vehicle due to poor maintenance conditions?  

 

 

1. Smoke screens used by mortars and with smoke grenades for local purposes. In this war we have seen multiple clashes of relatively small units (maximum 1-2 reinforced companies, very rare whole battalion at once) on relatively longer front line, than in WWII and as it was intended in Cold War times. In order to set so large smoke screen you have to concentarte enough number of artillery pieces - maybe even a battlion. This is too risky - to gather many assets in one place for long time. So, on battalion level usual mortars or armor can set smoke for local needs. Though, I have seen one video with artillery shot several smoke shells. Usually videos are filming to show elimination of the enemy, but smoke is not interesting. 

Except artillery there were in use special vehicles smoke-generators like TDA, from composition of CBRN-protection units. But they have speciphic tasks, for example to cover the bridge or crossing or some object. 

2. We discussed this question as far as in 2014-2015. But in this time enough number of UKR BMPs and especially BMDs, have driven with launchers on the top. But gradually ATGMs were almost desappered. Just specific of this war turned out them mostly useless. Also in 2014 many mobilized BMP gunners had poor training in ATGM shooting (the same thing was in separatists forces and often in Russian army). In current war is no sense to keep BMPs on first line to repelling of tank hordes. Even no sence to set portable launcher from it pack. The role of close AT-weapon crossed to infantry AT-assets like NLAW and Javelin, which have much more effectiveness, than old Konkurs. Also during ATO/OOS we probably used lot of Fagot/Konkurs missiles (and then so far many of them were outdated and often didn't work properly). Though, we still see Fagots and even Metises in the hands of infantry. 

Russian side doesn't use launchers on-the-top by the same reason. Though, I've seen several times they used portable launchers of BMP/BMD pack. 

Since 2014 and to present time I've seen maybe about dozen+ videos of ATGM usage by light armor and only in two applications - a launch from covered position when there is enough guaranties that you wil not be spotted first and attack of bunker or truck (some shots were in the night). But I never seen that BMP shot ATGM in "cavalry-style" meeting engagements or being in LOS of enemy tank or hypotetical ATGM in tree-line.  

Edited March 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/putin-russia-ukraine-war-us-western-support/673544/

 

 Don't quit when we are winning, and the other guy deserves it.

[danfrodo]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So when your opponent is working this hard to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and EU...we should probably do exactly that

Maybe extend that to the general case: what your enemies want for you is the opposite of what is good for your country.  Specificially, as in candidates for high office. 

[The_Capt]

Just now, danfrodo said:

Maybe extend that to the general case: what your enemies want for you is the opposite of what is good for your country.  Specificially, as in candidates for high office. 

"Within each town the TOG would appoint a garrison commander from the Russian military who would have an assigned detachment of garrison troops. These troops would occupy a building – usually the police or fire station – and set up facilities for detention, processing, interrogation and torture.70 The fact that the layout of these facilities is consistent throughout the country, and the equipment used in torture chambers, including specialised electrocution machines, were the same across multiple oblasts demonstrates that this was a systematic plan and not improvised sadism."

https://static.rusi.org/202303-SR-Unconventional-Operations-Russo-Ukrainian-War-web-final.pdf.pdf (pg 22)

 

[akd]

TOW Bunker Buster RF in Ukraine:

 

[danfrodo]

Slow news day here on the forum, so I'll throw this summary for today in.  bar chart again showing decreasing # of attacks per day.  Reports of signs that RU going over to the defensive.  Melitopol hit by something, plus some nice traffic jams in that area.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/29/2160849/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-looks-to-be-hunkering-down-as-everyone-waits-for-Ukraine-s-counteroffensive

RU on the defensive.  What shape are their troops in, overall?  I get that some will be fine but others probably have been freezing & half starved w bad gear and bad food and bad medical help and no rotations for months.  Hopefully there's a high percentage of those.

And T55s on the way!  As Perun mentioned, it's got some armor & a gun, so is still a dangerous weapon.  I bet RU will place these at various roadblocks along roads to help the mobiks hold.  If there's ammo available I suppose this isn't any dumber than those panther turrets buried in roads in 1945. 

 

[danfrodo]

18 minutes ago, akd said:

TOW Bunker Buster RF in Ukraine:

 

So is not wired guided?  Am I understanding this correctly? 

[akd]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So is not wired guided?  Am I understanding this correctly? 

Yes, all the current production TOW rounds are wireless (2B RF, 2A RF and BB RF).

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, Eddy said:

Latest preliminary lessons from RUSI. Haven't read it yet but appears to about the intelligence and unconventional war

Preliminary Lessons from Russia's Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022-February 2023 (rusi.org)

Great stuff as always from RUSI.

_______

One of the foremost causes of inaccuracy in pre-war military assessments of the likely trajectory of the fighting – both in NATO countries and in the Ukrainian military – stems from the  assumption that the Russian forces would conduct a deliberate military offensive. For example, it was assumed that rail and logistics infrastructure would be targeted. Instead, because the aim was to fix and isolate Ukrainian units, there was very little attempt to destroy them in the first three days. The whole logic of the employment of forces was premised on the success of Russia’s unconventional operations and yet, as already discussed, the preconditions for that success in terms of the political destabilization of Ukraine had not yet been achieved. There remains an unanswered question as to why the Russian leadership decided to begin the invasion without establishing the required preconditions. This may be understood as a strategic error of judgement by Putin personally.

The bulk of Russia’s planning focused on what to do after the invasion.

____________

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.economist.com/china/2023/03/23/china-wants-the-world-to-forget-about-its-crimes-in-xinjiang

What the Chinese have done in Xinjiang is what Putin wants to do in Ukraine. And for the record it is bleeping ugly.

[dan/california]

On a lighter note this beaver is convinced this trench will be his dream home, just as soon as he turns it into a pond.

 

Edit: Can one of the bigger drones deposit him on the Russian side of he line a a place they will regret?

Edited March 29, 2023 by dan/california

[Huba]

Not a photoshop, the are really slapping ERA blocks on the Leo2A4:

 

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Not a photoshop, the are really slapping ERA blocks on the Leo2A4:

 

I wonder Nizh or Kontakt-1 is inside...