How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

24 minutes ago, akd said:

Part 2 (we actually saw part of this earlier with UKR tank and BMP catching Russians fleeing back down tree line):

 

Those Russians were very persistent, despite their losses.

[Taranis]

21 hours ago, Kinophile said:

@Taranis what would this rate do to barrel life? When would replacement be needed? 

Sorry for such a late response. I don't really know the confidentiality of certain information so I will remain vague but the French doctrine for use provided for use in "war" of maintenance teams for a rate of 180 shells per day per gun for a few months (I remain deliberately vague on the months).
So it seems reasonable with the French job.
Barrel life would be around 2500 rounds

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well they really, really wanted that trench.

In annotation to video says "6 meter wide, 30 meters long. Seven days of continuous fights for this small patch of Ukrainian land"

[Astrophel]

Talking about the Putin-Xi meeting, supposed to last three days but finished in two, this link is interesting with a African spin on what the Chinese were setting up as the meeting in Moscow progressed.

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/international/xi-invites-central-asian-leaders-to-first-summit-in-china-4167150

As it seems that no military help is on its way from China, and no details about the construction of the gas pipeline to China were announced, one wonders what the russians did achieve at the meeting.  Curious what Xi and Putin did discuss slowly over tea in front of the fire?

The first meeting between China and the formerly Soviet central asian republics is targeted for May.  The Ukrainians might be setting the agenda with their rumoured spring offensive.

Edited March 26, 2023 by Astrophel
add may timing for meeting

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well they really, really wanted that trench.  A whole lot going wrong for the Russian assaulters, not to mention some pretty basic errors and missing pieces (e.g. No fire base I could see - did not “win the fire fight”, bunched up on the advance - which went bad when mortars came in, no indirect fire support of their own, no AFV or Armor support, likely little to no ISR support, big losses and not much to show for it).  This little action looks like it could represent the entire Russian Winter offensive.

 

What strikes me again and again and again... Russia goes into these situations without any AT capability at all.  Not even RPG-7 in evidence.  Not only is that a bad idea in case the Ukrainians have armor in support, but it also means less punch to take enemy positions.

A few days ago (last week?) we saw the clip of the tank breaking through the treeline and laying waste the retreating Russians.  Now we have better context for it.  Even at the time it was clear that the tank did what it did because it was in contact with the drone operator.  "They are in full retreat on the other side of the treeline, no AT weapons in evidence".  That gives the tank both a target it couldn't see and the reassurance that bursting through to the other side wasn't a suicide charge.

I wish we could have seen more from the engagement at the rear of the trench.  Ukrainians got lucky there as the guy who got shot shouldn't have moved until his buddy threw the grenade.  If he had waited, things might have turned out differently.  Looks like the grenade either bounced back into the main trench or the Ukrainian tossed/kicked it out of his dugout.  Either way, it didn't do what was needed and it seems the Russian lacked either grenades or courage to keep up the fight.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting OpEd from a very accomplished CIA officer. 

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3916787-friendship-means-telling-hard-truths-about-the-endgame-in-ukraine/

The short take on it is to advise Zelensky that he should negotiate concessions on the Donbas and Crimea so that the war can end ASAP.  Reason being that from this guy's perspective there's little chance Ukraine can take back those territories on its own and that the US' willingness to keep Ukraine supplied indefinitely is unrealistic.

Note that this guy is also making the case that defending Ukraine is a vital US interest.  In fact, that's why he is making this argument.  Negotiate while in a position of strength, so to speak.  He even advocates for Ukraine to be brought into NATO in some way that contractually obligates defending Ukraine in the event of another Russian attack.  That's not really a bad outcome for Ukraine, especially if Donbas and Crimea are outside of its reach (not to mention several of us here argue it could weaken Ukraine long term even if taken bloodlessly).

Aside from the probability that Putin isn't showing any signs of wanting to negotiate, we really don't know how much Ukraine can do militarily this year.  This is why I am thinking that Ukraine either has to do something spectacular this year or it will have to either go back to a frozen conflict mentality or it will have to negotiate.  I still lean towards thinking Ukraine will do something spectacular, but I have to concede it might not be possible this year.

Steve

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Writings at the end of video "Despite of heroical resistance we lost this position in next night attack. But it was turned back again during next days by K-2 battalion. Watch our next videos"

I'm pretty sure that thing will end up as a CM scenario or even a small campaign.

[CHEqTRO]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

What strikes me again and again and again... Russia goes into these situations without any AT capability at all.  Not even RPG-7 in evidence.  Not only is that a bad idea in case the Ukrainians have armor in support, but it also means less punch to take enemy positions.

Not really. On the video covering the first part, the attack actually opens with a Russian firing a RPG round into the trench. Also, you can see some of them having RPG22/26 on their backs. As to why are they not shooting against the UKR BMP and Tank, I suppose because either the RPG gunners were KIA/WIA by the artillery (rewatching said video, yeah, the guy with the RPG surely catched shrapnel from an artillery hit), or the Ukranians were able to quickly gain fire supperiority vs the Russians, and getting to fire an RPG with a 30mm cannon firing at you has to be a harsh proposition. Also the tanks just "appear" on the video, and we cannot see them actually approaching to those positions, so as far as we know the russians could had been the first to fire their RPGs, however, as you all should know, they are hardly a 100% hit weapon (there was a video the other day of a group of Russian infantry shooting to a tank with their RPGs, and having all of their shots fall short of the tank, it could have easily happened the same here as well).

Edited March 26, 2023 by CHEqTRO

[dan/california]

43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting OpEd from a very accomplished CIA officer. 

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3916787-friendship-means-telling-hard-truths-about-the-endgame-in-ukraine/

The short take on it is to advise Zelensky that he should negotiate concessions on the Donbas and Crimea so that the war can end ASAP.  Reason being that from this guy's perspective there's little chance Ukraine can take back those territories on its own and that the US' willingness to keep Ukraine supplied indefinitely is unrealistic.

Note that this guy is also making the case that defending Ukraine is a vital US interest.  In fact, that's why he is making this argument.  Negotiate while in a position of strength, so to speak.  He even advocates for Ukraine to be brought into NATO in some way that contractually obligates defending Ukraine in the event of another Russian attack.  That's not really a bad outcome for Ukraine, especially if Donbas and Crimea are outside of its reach (not to mention several of us here argue it could weaken Ukraine long term even if taken bloodlessly).

Aside from the probability that Putin isn't showing any signs of wanting to negotiate, we really don't know how much Ukraine can do militarily this year.  This is why I am thinking that Ukraine either has to do something spectacular this year or it will have to either go back to a frozen conflict mentality or it will have to negotiate.  I still lean towards thinking Ukraine will do something spectacular, but I have to concede it might not be possible this year.

Steve

This is actually on the Europeans, mostly. Zelensky can, maybe, concede the DPR/LPR and Crimea if FULL NATO and EU membership was signed on the same day, at the same table, by the same people. The FULL part of that sentence is important. So what does the EU want more, five years of this war blowing hot and cold, or maybe they work round a few pages in the rule book and get this done?

[Astrophel]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting OpEd from a very accomplished CIA officer. 

There are many sane believers in reality politics who will be thinking along with Grenier and trying to figure out how to settle, or freeze, what looks to some like a stalemate.  I think Xi has the timing about right for his May meeting with the Central Asian republics.  We will all know a lot more about the Ukrainian state of readiness and russian morale by then.

This winter russia did what nobody expected - they attacked day after day through the harsh weather.  They did not make much progress but neither did they fold.  I have no idea how the soldiers on the ground feel about this.  If it were me I would be figuring how to shoot my officers and make it out of there.  Russians seem prepared to make yet another suicide run for the glory of mother russia.  On the russian home front the protestors are either in jail or left the country - everybody else it seems is nodding along with Putin.  A revolution seems far from possible.

Opinion polls in US show strong support for Ukraine and stronger even among Republicans.  With an election around the bend nobody is going to abandon Ukraine.  EU too is solid.  Military and economic support continues to flow and even the current Italian government is on-board.  Ukraine is getting stronger by the day, militarily speaking, and the russians must know this.  The Chinese certainly do.  Russia better do something spectacular or the first Chinese-Central Asia meeting in May is going to have a challenging agenda.

Putin is running out of time.  His military is culminating the impossible winter offensive without any success.  His main ally is on the verge of seducing his central asian sphere of influence.  His economists are reduced to endorsing an renminbi currency and trying to sell gold on the quiet through London and Switzerland.  Putin's retort is to threaten stationing tactical nukes in Belarus!  Talk about a loser ....

It would be great when Ukraine could organise a serious counter offensive before the Chinese meet with Central Asia sometime in May.

[Astrophel]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is actually on the Europeans, mostly. Zelensky can, maybe, concede the DPR/LPR and Crimea if FULL NATO and EU membership was signed on the same day, at the same table, by the same people. The FULL part of that sentence is important. So what does the EU want more, five years of this war blowing hot and cold, or maybe they work round a few pages in the rule book and get this done?

EU does NOT have this kind of agenda.  EU is 28 nations figuring out what makes sense for all of us.  Ukraine should figure out what makes sense for Ukraine and EU supports this 100%.

Nato membership requires all Nato members individually to support - including Turkey. EU requires 28 sovereign nations to agree.  Maybe you think this is a weakness, but it is in fact a strength.  You see this now with support for Ukraine both in public and behind the scenes.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-25-2023

Russian leaks channel VChK-OGPU claimed on March 24 that Russian Duma deputy Dmitry Sablin will head a new Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS) volunteer detachment intended for Russia’s political elite to check the box of participating in the war in Ukraine.[65] Russian politicians will likely keep this unit far from the front lines or any unpleasant task while using their “service” to combat criticism that they are detached from the war.

 

I had strongly suspected this was the purpose of the new Gazprom raised unit, but apparently there is a separate effort to provide the elite epaulets without the risk of incoming fire.

Edited March 26, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

Drone defense, or else...

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

EU does NOT have this kind of agenda.  EU is 28 nations figuring out what makes sense for all of us.  Ukraine should figure out what makes sense for Ukraine and EU supports this 100%.

Nato membership requires all Nato members individually to support - including Turkey. EU requires 28 sovereign nations to agree.  Maybe you think this is a weakness, but it is in fact a strength.  You see this now with support for Ukraine both in public and behind the scenes.

I am simply pointing out that if the EU wants Ukraine to make a deal, this is the carrot to get it done. As you say there would be a great deal of consultation involved. My advice would be to lock the relevant government ministries and functionaries in a not too comfortable hotel and tell them to move things along.

[dan/california]

Insofar as I can tel from my Sunday morning read around the Russians payed this bill for at most a few hundred meters of ground gained in a very few places. A few hundred meters might be to generous actually...

Edited March 26, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

@Battlefront.com

I can't find your post with reddit video with assault of Wagner blindage - you wrote, that's amazing how much grenades they need to use to eliminate all Russians inside.

I've seen today interview with soldiers, who conducted this operation, they told Russians had there mattresses for slipping, its were enough thick to protect them from small fragments of grenades. There were three men in blindage. 

All operation took three days - in first day there was only recon from drones and it was too hard to find all enemy foxholes, because its were narrow and masked with fallen branches. Even on the second day, when soldiers entered to tree-plant, one of them suddenly encountered on foxhole and by miracle could avoid a shot (there was on video) 

On second day, infantry mopped-up almost all positions around blindage - Wagners by unknown reason didn't spot entering the group to tree-plant and even didn't hear their steps on cracking branches! But after skirmish, Russian mortars opened fire and "Honor" group has withdrown.

On third day blindage area was shelled with snipers, mortars and tank fire. Probably Wagners were mostly shell-shocked, so they just hide in blindage, so assault group could approach not spotted again.  

Edited March 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

One more R-330Zh EW at least damaged

 

[hcrof]

Interesting documentary about the Ukrainians getting trained on challenger 2 with a look into the simulators and other activities. The Ukrainians seem to be a mix of veterans and mobilised personnel.

https://youtu.be/S9-Eghtai3s

 

[akd]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said:

Not really. On the video covering the first part, the attack actually opens with a Russian firing a RPG round into the trench. Also, you can see some of them having RPG22/26 on their backs. As to why are they not shooting against the UKR BMP and Tank, I suppose because either the RPG gunners were KIA/WIA by the artillery (rewatching said video, yeah, the guy with the RPG surely catched shrapnel from an artillery hit), or the Ukranians were able to quickly gain fire supperiority vs the Russians, and getting to fire an RPG with a 30mm cannon firing at you has to be a harsh proposition. Also the tanks just "appear" on the video, and we cannot see them actually approaching to those positions, so as far as we know the russians could had been the first to fire their RPGs, however, as you all should know, they are hardly a 100% hit weapon (there was a video the other day of a group of Russian infantry shooting to a tank with their RPGs, and having all of their shots fall short of the tank, it could have easily happened the same here as well).

Yeah, so that's what I'm talking about in terms of AT.  On the battlefield these days weapons like RPG-22 and ILAW are not really an AT weapon.  Sure, they can do more than annoy a Soviet IFV or make an ERA protected tank think twice, but only if the situation is highly favorable for the shooter.  As we can see in this video that didn't happen.

A platoon sized force attack should have someone with a more capable AT system dedicated to overwatch.  Something better than an RPG-7 would be ideal, but for a situation like in this video it could work out OK.  Why?  Well, for exactly the reasons we saw in this video.  Not only did their attack quickly go from bad to worse when the armor showed up, but they weren't able to extract themselves very well either.

On the Ukrainian side they have access to a larger variety of AT weapons, perhaps even more so than the average NATO infantry unit.  Platoons have direct access to several systems that are vastly superior to disposable LATW.  Imagine this same scenario with the Ukrainians attacking a Russian trench and Russian armor shows up with even *1* soldier hanging back in the woodline with an NLAW, RPG-7, PzF-3, AT-4, or any number of other systems provided to Ukraine in quantity.  At the very least the infantry would likely have done a lot better extracting themselves.

Yes, there's a hundred battlefield conditions to take into consideration as well as "bias confirmation" from videos to account for as well.  I understand that.  But it seems to me that there is a pattern of Russian units seemingly under armed, or perhaps under motivated, to engage armor.

Steve

 

[Astrophel]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I am simply pointing out that if the EU wants Ukraine to make a deal, this is the carrot to get it done. As you say there would be a great deal of consultation involved. My advice would be to lock the relevant government ministries and functionaries in a not too comfortable hotel and tell them to move things along.

Individual Sticks and Carrots are too complicated for 28 democracies having agreed to do something consequential like supporting Ukraine.  Ukraine will determine when this war is over and if and when to "move things along".  EU is meanwhile on Ukraine's side as stated regularly by the representatives of the European Council and backed by various concrete actions.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Astrophel said:

There are many sane believers in reality politics who will be thinking along with Grenier and trying to figure out how to settle, or freeze, what looks to some like a stalemate.  

Yup.  Some of those voices have been loud and proud since the first days of the war.  They were wrong then, but by the end of the year they might not be.  It really depends on what happens this year.  If Ukraine can't manage to produce a significant result, I think the mood in the West will change.  Especially if there's something else for them to worry about, such as a financial system collapse.

Some of what Grenier was hinting at is that the war has gone on long enough that the chances of support for Ukraine eroding to the point of being significant does exist.  Telling Ukraine, as a friend, that they should be aware of this is sensible.

1 hour ago, Astrophel said:

I think Xi has the timing about right for his May meeting with the Central Asian republics.  We will all know a lot more about the Ukrainian state of readiness and russian morale by then.

I have a feeling that not only did Xi turn down Putin's request for a large scale military support package, but my guess is Xi told Putin to end this thing as soon as possible.  As I recently argued, the longer this thing goes on, the more problems it creates for Xi.

1 hour ago, Astrophel said:

Putin is running out of time.  His military is culminating the impossible winter offensive without any success.  His main ally is on the verge of seducing his central asian sphere of influence.  His economists are reduced to endorsing an renminbi currency and trying to sell gold on the quiet through London and Switzerland.  Putin's retort is to threaten stationing tactical nukes in Belarus!  Talk about a loser ....

Indeed!  And you only touched on a fraction of the things going wrong for Russia.  Which is why I'm still very confident that Ukraine will achieve something major on the battlefield this year.  And if it can't, then I think expectations will need significant readjustment.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

@Battlefront.com

I can't find your post with reddit video with assault of Wagner blindage - you wrote, that's amazing how much grenades they need to use to eliminate all Russians inside.

I've seen today interview with soldiers, who conducted this operation, they told Russians had there mattresses for slipping, its were enough thick to protect them from small fragments of grenades. There were three men in blindage. 

All operation took three days - in first day there was only recon from drones and it was too hard to find all enemy foxholes, because its were narrow and masked with fallen branches. Even on the second day, when soldiers entered to tree-plant, one of them suddenly encountered on foxhole and by miracle could avoid a shot (there was on video) 

On second day, infantry mopped-up almost all positions around blindage - Wagners by unknown reason didn't spot entering the group to tree-plant and even didn't hear their steps on cracking branches! But after skirmish, Russian mortars opened fire and "Honor" group has withdrown.

On third day blindage area was shelled with snipers, mortars and tank fire. Probably Wagners were mostly shell-shocked, so they just hide in blindage, so assault group could approach not spotted again.  

Thanks for the AAR details!  Always great to have this sort of information to go with the video.

Steve

[Huba]

The Orange One says that if elected president, he would end the war in Ukrainein 24h, but apparently by” ending” he means „winning”.  He still scares the Bejezus out of me.

 

[Letter from Prague]

I don't think EU is going to make Ukraine member any time soon. It would be rather suicidal, EU needs to figure out how to get rid of the veto problem, before bringing any new members that are going to make it even more difficult.

If EU can't figure it out, it will go the way of Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth which was also destroyed by internal and external enemies overusing vetos to block things.

But I think with nationalism and fascism on the rise in Europe, we are further and further from solution.