How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Very bad decision to gather in mob inside poor blindage, when you have seen drone-bomber

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Yet]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/politics/russia-iran-ukraine-weapons/index.html

i guess this is the official end of a technological superpower.

... from first man in space to "we dont understand rockets".

Edited March 11, 2023 by Yet
add it ;)

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Stanislav Posternak, commander of AA-gun battery of AA-battalion of unknown tank regiment (it's starnge, because lt.colonel is a duty for battalion commander). Was killed on 1st of March 2023 near Mykilske village Donetsk oblast (Vuhledar direction) 

Lt.colonel (retired) Denis Gusev, last place of service - Directorate of Rosgvardiya troops in Penza oblast. After war has started he enlisted to service again. Unit unknown. Was killed on 26th of June 2022 in Popasne village (not to be confused with Popasna town), Luhansk oblast, Siverodonetsk direction.

 

 

[ASL Veteran]

I don't know if someone has already posted this, but I ran across this and thought it was pretty funny.  I had no idea the UK's arms shipments to Ukraine were causing such hardship.

 

[Yet]

noop, youre definately about the first... we are having squirrel-week.

[DesertFox]

Red squirrel or grey squirrel that´s the question, 

Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And by opposing end them. 

Erm...

 

[Haiduk]

Colonel Douglas McGregor with news from parallel universe %)

 

[Yet]

... UK must be full of awesome strong Rambo's that they can hunt, kill and eat squirrels. In the USA the squirrels are having the upper hand over humanity. 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/11/squirrel-hospitalizes-anti-squirrel-chicago-alderman.html

[Haiduk]

Some news from Vuhledar direction

Likely Russians conduct "negative advance" during their Vuhledar offensive, so now UKR Maviks can fly free over the center of Mykilske village on southern bank of river and to drop bomblets on their abandoned light armor

11 captured servicemen of Russian 155th naval infantry brigade - UKR soldier asks them how much time they already in army and theese guys say very long terms of service - only one of them served 2 months, other says 3-5 years, 7 years, 10 years and even one 17 years. Then, captives say about their units - only first guy, who served 2 months signed contract exactly with 155th brigade, other - Pacific Fleet sailors, transferred from ships to 155th brigade as infantry.    

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russians blow up own unoperational helicopter Mi-8AMTSh on Hostomel airfield before withdrawing

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Very bad decision to gather in mob inside poor blindage, when you have seen drone-bomber

 

I counted at least 8 soldiers.  It doesn't look like any of them survived.  I just do not understand how dumb, I mean truly DUMB, these guys were.  There was no circumstance at all that would make this a smart move.  Hiding?  Nope, already spotted.  Protection?  A few branches on top stops nothing.  Well, Darwin's Laws at work.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Colonel Douglas McGregor with news from parallel universe %)

 

Yeah, I really think the IRS and FBI should investigate his bank account.  Macgregor can not be THAT stupid and mentally ill, yet also be able to make cohesive sentences.  Most likely he is on a payroll.

"What is stopping Russia from rolling over the Dnepr, taking Kyiv, and going to the Polish border?" he asks.  Well, for starters, Russia is topping Russia.

Good lord.  There's one thing to play Devil's Advocate, it's another thing to be hopelessly bogged down by Cold War logic, but this?  Pure insanity or, as I posit, payment for services rendered.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Some news from Vuhledar direction

Likely Russians conduct "negative advance" during their Vuhledar offensive, so now UKR Maviks can fly free over the center of Mykilske village on southern bank of river and to drop bomblets on their abandoned light armor

Have you seen the double V vehicle identification symbol before?  This is the first I've seen of it and I'm curious about it.

To me it seems there were two BMP-2 that had their cannons removed?  If they were removed in the field, why just the cannon and not the whole vehicle?  If they had the time to remove the cannon, what does this say about their vehicle recovery capabilities?  Nothing good, I think.  Also, why put themselves at risk to recover the cannon?  Shortage of barrels?

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

 

11 captured servicemen of Russian 155th naval infantry brigade - UKR soldier asks them how much time they already in army and theese guys say very long terms of service - only one of them served 2 months, other says 3-5 years, 7 years, 10 years and even one 17 years. Then, captives say about their units - only first guy, who served 2 months signed contract exactly with 155th brigade, other - Pacific Fleet sailors, transferred from ships to 155th brigade as infantry.    

As I was reading your description I was wondering how it could be that the 155th still has long serving contractors after all of the losses.  Your last sentence answered that question... because they were on ships.

Steve

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I really think the IRS and FBI should investigate his bank account.  Macgregor can not be THAT stupid and mentally ill, yet also be able to make cohesive sentences.  Most likely he is on a payroll.

"What is stopping Russia from rolling over the Dnepr, taking Kyiv, and going to the Polish border?" he asks.  Well, for starters, Russia is topping Russia.

Good lord.  There's one thing to play Devil's Advocate, it's another thing to be hopelessly bogged down by Cold War logic, but this?  Pure insanity or, as I posit, payment for services rendered.

Steve

Ya so this guy is a SAMS grad apparently, which is about as high as one can go on the “smart guy but not command material” career line.  So he has the background and training to know what he is selling is pure BS, which makes this worse.  

So we are to believe that Russia is waging a limited war - after Bucha and criminal missile strikes (I have no doubt he is denying both of those points despite overwhelming evidence) - and accepting attritional bleeding approaching major war levels because…reasons?  If anything his narrative makes Russia even darker and more irrational.  According to him Russia could end this war in a week but is not, and therefore dragging the suffering on both sides out, for some sort of weird “winning the peace” long game restraint?  (He has been selling that one since this thing began).

The guy is a traitor to the military profession…as to the rest, well we will likely have to let the courts decide.

In other news, found another interesting RAND piece - this is a western assessment of Russian assessments pre-war: 

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA100/RRA198-4/RAND_RRA198-4.pdf

Really big and complicated power analysis and assessment models throughout but don’t let turn you off.  What is interesting is that Russia is entirely wired to see the world as a threat space - the entire thing is threat orientated.  

Further, Russia sees itself as anything less than global 1 or 2 as a threat in itself.  This is bigger than NATO or Eastern Europe, it is a society that has to be on top or its existence is in question.  Historically that stark calculus never went anywhere good.  

What struck me is the underlying end-game dichotomy - “we know we will never dominate the world but we have to dominate something”.   There is a tone of insecurity and compensation for that throughout.  This is beyond all the social and physical metrics rubbed all over everything, it speaks to the Russian certainty.  It is too easy to simply write this off as “duh, see Russia”.  It speaks to something we spoke about earlier, the theory of Russian defeat.  So how do you get a nation that is built on that certainty to renegotiate with itself peacefully?

 

[Haiduk]

Sabateurs of "Freedom for Russia" set on fire Su-27 fighter on Tsentralnaya Uglovaya airbase in Artyom town near Vladivostok. 22nd fighter aviation regiment is dislocated there

 

[akd]

Interesting TERRA unit vid that shows them observing Pions firing HE-Frag clusters on Russian position. Also Ukrainian BMP-1s attacking same position at beginning and taking fire from RPGs and artillery:

 

[DesertFox]

Thermal vision drones - efficient pest control

 

 

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, ASL Veteran said:

I don't know if someone has already posted this, but I ran across this and thought it was pretty funny.  I had no idea the UK's arms shipments to Ukraine were causing such hardship.

 

The squirrels have been caught quite by surprise, too.  They all saw the broadcast and decided to get all dressed up and wait in line at posh restaurants in London, only to find out that it was like a twilight zone episode and they were on the menu.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I really think the IRS and FBI should investigate his bank account.  Macgregor can not be THAT stupid and mentally ill, yet also be able to make cohesive sentences.  Most likely he is on a payroll.

"What is stopping Russia from rolling over the Dnepr, taking Kyiv, and going to the Polish border?" he asks.  Well, for starters, Russia is topping Russia.

Good lord.  There's one thing to play Devil's Advocate, it's another thing to be hopelessly bogged down by Cold War logic, but this?  Pure insanity or, as I posit, payment for services rendered.

Steve

well as we are seeing from the Dominion case - saying something and actually believing it are two very different things.  Maybe this is as good as the "Col" can do career wise.  After all somebody has to be the village idiot.

Edited March 11, 2023 by sburke

[dan/california]

52 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya so this guy is a SAMS grad apparently, which is about as high as one can go on the “smart guy but not command material” career line.  So he has the background and training to know what he is selling is pure BS, which makes this worse.  

So we are to believe that Russia is waging a limited war - after Bucha and criminal missile strikes (I have no doubt he is denying both of those points despite overwhelming evidence) - and accepting attritional bleeding approaching major war levels because…reasons?  If anything his narrative makes Russia even darker and more irrational.  According to him Russia could end this war in a week but is not, and therefore dragging the suffering on both sides out, for some sort of weird “winning the peace” long game restraint?  (He has been selling that one since this thing began).

The guy is a traitor to the military profession…as to the rest, well we will likely have to let the courts decide.

In other news, found another interesting RAND piece - this is a western assessment of Russian assessments pre-war: 

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA100/RRA198-4/RAND_RRA198-4.pdf

Really big and complicated power analysis and assessment models throughout but don’t let turn you off.  What is interesting is that Russia is entirely wired to see the world as a threat space - the entire thing is threat orientated.  

Further, Russia sees itself as anything less than global 1 or 2 as a threat in itself.  This is bigger than NATO or Eastern Europe, it is a society that has to be on top or its existence is in question.  Historically that stark calculus never went anywhere good.  

What struck me is the underlying end-game dichotomy - “we know we will never dominate the world but we have to dominate something”.   There is a tone of insecurity and compensation for that throughout.  This is beyond all the social and physical metrics rubbed all over everything, it speaks to the Russian certainty.  It is too easy to simply write this off as “duh, see Russia”.  It speaks to something we spoke about earlier, the theory of Russian defeat.  So how do you get a nation that is built on that certainty to renegotiate with itself peacefully?

 

Quote

Based on Figure S.1, one scenario could involve Russian perceptions of an imminent loss of credibility of its nuclear and strategic nonnuclear deterrence potential.

There is a rather good argument the the credibility of Russia's nonnuclear anything is pretty much gone...

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I counted at least 8 soldiers.  It doesn't look like any of them survived.  I just do not understand how dumb, I mean truly DUMB, these guys were.  There was no circumstance at all that would make this a smart move.  Hiding?  Nope, already spotted.  Protection?  A few branches on top stops nothing.  Well, Darwin's Laws at work.

Steve

Maybe that little "stick hut" was just the covered entrance to a bigger dugout?

Still I don't get why they wouldn't at least try to shoot at the drone.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Very bad decision to gather in mob inside poor blindage, when you have seen drone-bomber

On a distantly related note: the device in the upper right corner of the film looks like the Ostrogski family coat of arms. Is the unit related anyhow to hetman Ostrogski?

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, sburke said:

well as we are seeing from the Dominion case - saying something and actually believing it are two very different things.  Maybe this is as good as the "Col" can do career wise.

Someone needs to sue him, and get discovery. Interesting question who would have standing to do that? Fox's epic mistake was to get in the legal version of a razor blade cage match with someone who had very clear and obvious standing to claim injury, and enough money for a real legal team. 

Edited March 11, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

A really skeptical part of me thinks there was a movement to sell Russia as more dangerous than it was for various reasons. 

I am going to give RAND and the others who wildly overestimated Russia's capabilities prior to the war and guess the single biggest reason for their errors was adopting the "assume the worst case and plan accordingly" mentality rife within the defense industry.  Every time something comes before them they think "what is the worst scenario", select that to study, and discard the rest.  Over time they forget how to be objectively analytical and that mindset becomes culturally entrenched.

What I have a much harder time explaining away is how some can not adjust after being proven so wrong.  What they should do is take their prewar assumptions, trash them, and start fresh from where things are right now instead of where they thought they would be.  This is my beef with Kofman.  Even though he has shifted his point of view significantly, he seems to still base his predictions on discredited thinking.

That said, Kofman's depth of knowledge is still valuable to tap into.  His presentation style is also very good, which is why I still listen to what he has to say.  The video that cesmonkey posted is a good example of why Kofman should still be paid attention to, despite his blinders.  His breaking down of what has already happened was informative, even for someone like me who has been following this in detail.  For example, his more detailed analysis of why the Russians were unable to execute their battle plan effectively was quite good.  He also fleshed out, with details, what I've been saying about Russian military structure since before this war started... Russia came up with a half assed plan, then they half assed its implementation.  Kofman's look at the specifics of how it was poorly designed and then (repeatedly) compromised after is definitely good stuff to listen to.

Why someone with all this knowledge and insight didn't see this disaster coming, and still struggles to project forward, is still baffling to me.

Steve

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

On a distantly related note: the device in the upper right corner of the film looks like the Ostrogski family coat of arms. Is the unit related anyhow to hetman Ostrogski?

Yes, full unit name: 30th mech.brigade named after kniaz' (prince) Kostiantyn Ostrozkyi. Dislocation - Zviahel' town (former name Novohrad-Volynskyi), Volyn', ancestral land of Ostrozkyi's dinasty. 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Haiduk