How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Firstly, everyone should actually read the Budapest Memorandum, it was a pretty flimsy piece of work.  Ukraine took the money for nukes it could not sustain nor really employ, the security guarantee was essentially backstopped by the UN and had holes one could drive buses through:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

“The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated at political level, but it is not entirely clear whether the instrument is devoid entirely of legal provisions. It refers to assurances, but unlike guarantees, it does not impose a legal obligation of military assistance on its parties.^[1][46] According to Stephen MacFarlane, a professor of international relations, "It gives signatories justification if they take action, but it does not force anyone to act in Ukraine."^[45] In the US, neither the George H. W. Bush administration nor the Clinton administration was prepared to give a military commitment to Ukraine, and they did not believe the US Senate would ratify an international treaty and so the memorandum was adopted in more limited terms.^[46]The memorandum has a requirement of consultation among the parties "in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning the ... commitments" set out in the memorandum.^[47] Whether or not the memorandum sets out legal obligations, the difficulties that Ukraine has encountered since early 2014 may cast doubt on the credibility of future security assurances that are offered in exchange for nonproliferation commitments.^[48] Regardless, the United States publicly maintains that "the Memorandum is not legally binding", calling it a "political commitment".^[21]
Seriously this thing ranks up there with the Munich Agreement.  

Regardless, one thing this war has taught me is that strategy in warfare cannot simply be a “theory of victory” in the 21st century, it must also be a theory of defeat for an opponent.  This is a major shortfall in the entire concept.  We have literally been watching Russia figuring out how to lose this thing for about 6 months now. They need to “win at losing”, almost as much as Ukraine does at winning, or none of those policy objectives in this article are going to work.

See below...

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

If true - even half of it - that is a military in the process of systemic failure. It highlight institutional level failures, nearly across the board:

Force Management - inability to conduct troop rotations, plummeting morale and pretty abysmal culture right now.

Force Development - in ability to adapt comms to environment. UAV failures.

Force Sustainment - the entire Artillery problem.

Force Generation - incredibly poor training quality of new troops.

Force Employment - well this one is pretty self evident.

I mean I do not know this source or how reliable it is but this is what military that is failing looks like.

Okay, let us assume that Grigb's source, translation, and so on are correct for purposes of this discussion. You have just stated in the same morning that Russia's military is on the verge of epic failure. You have stated that the Russian state is simply clueless about what to do next, they simply have no idea how to lose this war. So if the Ukrainians smash the Russian army into flaming dust bunnies the way they deserve, and it seems as likely as not they will. Does the Russian regime survive? Does the Russian state survive? They are not quite the same thing. Or are we on an inevitable track towards something at least as dramatic as the Bolshevik revolution?

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Does the Russian state survive? They are not quite the same thing. Or are we on an inevitable track towards something at least as dramatic as the Bolshevik revolution?

I think the problem in trying to assess what happens to the Russian state is the lack of info.  We really don't know the power relationships and who might want to step up that has the backing to do so.  Can Putin push more of a narrative that NATO was responsible?  Does China have a vested interest in stabilizing the Russian regime?  Is the Russian population simply too apathetic to feel that a Russian army withdrawal from Ukraine is more a relief than a cause for revolt?

[danfrodo]

Legacy:  every new person to my simulation group says "fortran sucks, we must convert everything to C++ or python!".  Then we explain that we can spend the next year re-writing perfectly functioning code only to have the same thing we have now after a year of salary, just in a different language and running about the same speed (or worse).  Or they can take a few weeks to become proficient enough at fortran to just add what we need when that comes up.  It's a totally predictable cycle we've been through over & over & over.

Meanwhile, I am just sitting here waiting for the ground to dry.......   RU has 800 km front to cover when that happens.  Gonna be interesting.  Fortunately RU has wisely moved to combined arms by adding naval gun turrets to MTLBs -- this is really next level thinking, bringing the navy onto the land, brilliant.  Because sanctions, corruption, and stupidity has totally not made a dent in RU armored vehicle production.

Edited March 5, 2023 by danfrodo

[dan/california]

48 minutes ago, chrisl said:

One last example on legacy (because I think we're at a point where we more or less agree that some might work and some might not, but we don't want to gamble on it).  In graduate school in the mid 90s I had a piece of legacy test equipment from the 60s.  It had been acquired in the 70s, along with I think ten identical siblings, from the Navy as gov't surplus.  I needed to use it for a few weeks at a time a few times a year.  It was all discrete analog electronics, and IIRC didn't have any tubes.  It was the only one left of the original 11, the others having been scavenged for parts over time.  A modern replacement would have cost a few tens of $K, which we didn't have.  Just about every time I turned it on I'd find some new failure mode and have to take it apart and diagnose and repair it.  Fortunately it was used in continuous operation, so I'd typically turn it on, go through the diagnosis/repair cycle, then leave it on for a few weeks before powering it down and stowing it again. Fortunately it was from an era that was post-tube and pre-chip.  Tubes by then were still marginally available, mostly from I think Hungary and then-Yugoslavia for guitar amplifiers, and had it used any logic chips from the early days of LSI I'd probably have had a hard time getting them by then (ebay was just starting up). 

Bleep me, what was the calibration process like when you made it "work"?

19 minutes ago, sburke said:

I think the problem in trying to assess what happens to the Russian state is the lack of info.  We really don't know the power relationships and who might want to step up that has the backing to do so.  Can Putin push more of a narrative that NATO was responsible?  Does China have a vested interest in stabilizing the Russian regime?  Is the Russian population simply too apathetic to feel that a Russian army withdrawal from Ukraine is more a relief than a cause for revolt?

Well stated, and right on cue...

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746?i=1000602840001

Quote

 

https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/

 

And right on cue Mark Galeotti has some new stuff out, he seems to know as much about it as anyone writing in english.

[chrisl]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Bleep me, what was the calibration process like when you made it "work"?

That was easy.  We had an external calibration standard that you could plug right into it and it only took a few minutes to check and adjust if needed. Fortunately its function depended on well understood physics and there was just one parameter that normally had to be adjusted slightly.

[Kinophile]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

See below...

Okay, let us assume that Grigb's source, translation, and so on are correct for purposes of this discussion. You have just stated in the same morning that Russia's military is on the verge of epic failure. You have stated that the Russian state is simply clueless about what to do next, they simply have no idea how to lose this war. So if the Ukrainians smash the Russian army into flaming dust bunnies the way they deserve, and it seems as likely as not they will. Does the Russian regime survive? Does the Russian state survive? They are not quite the same thing. Or are we on an inevitable track towards something at least as dramatic as the Bolshevik revolution?

The AFRF can fail for a long time and still do a tremendous amount of damage on the dwnslope... 

[Harmon Rabb]

Tension between Girkin and Prigozhin.

Girkin calls for Prigozhin to be removed as head of Wagner. Prigozhin fires back with some colorful language and comes to the conclusion that Girikin is a "woman".

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Tension between Girkin and Prigozhin.

Girkin calls for Prigozhin to be removed as head of Wagner. Prigozhin fires back with some colorful language and comes to the conclusion that Girikin is a "woman".

It is an underrated factor in the survival of Prigozhin and Girkin that as long as one is around the regime will want to other in order to ensure dissension in the ranks of the hard core nationalists. 

[Seminole]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

not sure what your point is.  Does/has the US done some fk'd up stuff?  Yep, lots of it.  Does that make it okay, nope. 

I don’t get celebrating some pilot getting a prison sentence for dropping bombs as ordered on a communications hub.  
In no small part because we do the same stuff, and in a war I think it’s a normal thing and shouldn’t be prosecuted as a crime by the pilot.  
Instead of agreeing that the pilot isn’t a criminal there were prevarications about why it’s ok when we do it.  So I provided another example to show there is no rule, we just do it, like anyone at war would if they could.  

Edited March 5, 2023 by Seminole

[dan/california]

41 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

The AFRF can fail for a long time and still do a tremendous amount of damage on the dwnslope... 

In the absence the War in Ukraine, it could fail slowly for fifty years. But that is not the current reality. The Ukrainians are, by virtually all accounts  about to to take a VERY hard swing at breaking the land bridge. If they really break through they are going to exploit to the the absolute limit of their resources. The Russians have withstood ~20,000 kia/seriously wounded per month. Can they they withstand a 100,000 month? Russian military cadets are already singing songs that glorify their impending certain death in Ukraine. When will the mobiks who serve under them just stop following orders? 

Edited March 5, 2023 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Girkin calls for Prigozhin to be removed as head of Wagner. Prigozhin fires back with some colorful language and comes to the conclusion that Girikin is a "woman".

Girkin's a woman?  Huh, I thought Putin didn't like trans folks.  Though this does explain quite a bit, like the oddly fake looking mustache.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I do not recall a single instance in history of communists being voted to power without rigging the elections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvador_Allende

Not a communist but since socialism and communism even here are used pretty much interchangeably he's a good enough example.

Edited March 5, 2023 by Butschi

[Yet]

posing a question:

or did Putin stop the nuclear START inspections for another reason: he doesnt want the world to see the current state of the nukes.

there have been a lot of international inspections, so we can assume that till last year everything was in top condition, otherwise we would have heard it right?

however, over last year or could be possible that the nuclear warheads are still in good condition, but because the rockets had to be made free (prepared for Ukraine) that now there are some imperfections going on: like lack of platforms to deliver the nukes, uncarefull storage of the warheads or other things.

[Eddy]

8 minutes ago, Yet said:

there have been a lot of international inspections, so we can assume that till last year everything was in top condition, otherwise we would have heard it right?

My understanding is there have been no inspections since the start of Covid, so last three years 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/05/world/europe/trench-warfare-ukraine-frontline.html

 

 

[dan/california]

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, sross112 said:

We should put our faith in the "experts" on Russian military readiness, training, equipment, and capability? Since all of this has kicked off they have about the same success rate as 19th century meteorologists. Not real sure that anything they say should be given any credence.  

At the same time I totally agree with your point of view. Even if there is a 99% failure rate in the nuclear forces that still leaves more than enough to pretty much get the job done. So it still needs to be respected. Now if rocket fuel could be snorted with the same effect of cocaine I'd bet a body part it had all been sold years ago and replaced with sawdust.  

I'd go a step further.  If 100% of Russia's nuclear arsenal were duds, and either blew up in their silos or smashed into the ground without exploding, the global environmental impact of all that nuclear material would be horrendous.  Plus, the other nuclear powers wouldn't know that they were all duds and would respond with their own strikes which, no doubt, would be far more likely to hit and detonate, thus causing all kinds of horrible results.

Which means Russia's nuclear arsenal is a threat to the world simply because it exists.  Whether it can get off the ground or even get close to its targets is irrelevant.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

47 minutes ago, Seminole said:

I don’t get celebrating some pilot getting a prison sentence for dropping bombs as ordered on a communications hub.

Because he is taking part in a genocidal war of aggression?

47 minutes ago, Seminole said:

 In no small part because we do the same stuff, and in a war I think it’s a normal thing and shouldn’t be prosecuted as a crime by the pilot.  
Instead of agreeing that the pilot isn’t a criminal there were prevarications about why it’s ok when we do it.  So I provided another example to show there is no rule, we just do it, like anyone at war would if they could.  

There should be accountability.  The world has supposedly moved on from its past practices.  If the US were to go off and deliberately carpet bomb civilians like it did in WW2 and Vietnam, I'd be calling for the pilots and everybody above them to be held accountable for warcrimes.  Just because that wasn't past practice doesn't excuse it.

The trials at the end of WW2 established that "just following orders" is not an adequate defense when the accused knew what he was doing was wrong.  I am perfectly fine with that standard and I do think it should be universally applied to all conflicts by all nations.  The Russian pilot should be held accountable just as much for his actions as a civilian who put C4 on a radio tower.

Steve

[Fenris]

From the cutting edge to a pimped out Maxim... As someone says in the comments, this is almost steampunk.  Bags not carrying it though.

 

[Battlefront.com]

13 hours ago, Grigb said:

Here is a bit of unverified rumor:

Officers on the front lines beg for a total shift to a defensive strategy throughout the whole front, claiming they are unable to fulfill the request (some even request withdrawal, stating that they will not be able to keep existing territory anyway). The top leadership appears to recognize it, but they (especially Gerasimov) appear to be unaware of the extent of the RU army's inferiority. So he plans the action, nonetheless, based on his very optimistic estimations.
Furthermore, while Putin is sympathetic toward the concept of shifting to a defensive approach, he demands full control over one of the UKR provinces first.

The RU's "meat assaults" are still on the menu.

I think some of this is getting lost as the thread is currently in yet another nuclear rabbit hole

If we look at the RU Nats' rantings, there seems to be some awareness on the Russian side that its military forces are not well equipped to fight a defensive war.  However, for this to change the top level has to a) acknowledge reality, b) design a better alternative, and c) implement it.  In an autocratic system acknowledging reality is risky, so leadership tends to dance around it.  Since the systems (not just military) are deliberately designed to shield the top echelons from accountability, the people that are most needed to implement change are the ones least motivated to do so.  They are also often the least capable of doing so because ruthless political maneuvering is usually what got them into those positions, not competency.

Accountability at the top levels is generally achieved by replacement or worse (windows, heart attacks, suicide, etc) by someone higher up.  The problem is the new guy in charge faces the same exact circumstances as the guy that was just replaced.  The system is so rotten that meaningful change is unlikely. 

Each successive replacement at the senior level hopes that he can smoke & mirror his way out of the immediate crisis.  This can work pretty effectively in most situations in peacetime, but for extreme events such as war or a financial crisis, probably not.  Which means the replacement is probably going to fail and then find himself replaced or worse.  The next guy coming in faces the same situation.  So on and so forth until the situation fundamentally changes.  In this case, the hope seems to be that Ukraine and/or the West tires of the war and agrees to a ceasefire on Russia's terms.

Steve

[danfrodo]

31 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Now that is interesting..... using jets as a flexible, mobile air defense against drone/glider attacks.  Very interesting. 

[Fenris]

More weird equipment - UKR is getting Bradleys and Strikers, RU is getting these

 

[kevinkin]

5 hours ago, poesel said:

Functioning nukes are the linchpin of this regime.

Functioning yes. Accurate no. Accuracy mean nothing unless you are trying to win an all out nuclear exchange where silos and specific hard targets need to be destroyed. But 10 nukes hitting 10 suburbs of 10 major US cities is enough of a threat to be geologically effective. At least in the mad man first strike scenario. Even if Russia is annihilated in response with high accuracy, would anyone want to live in a country that is partially annihilated by MIRVs with terrible accuracy? And we got out of sorts about dirty bombs back in the day. 

[chuckdyke]

Ingenious design, you can get LOS when you shoot over the fence.

[kevinkin]

WSJ:

Russia’s Wagner Troops Exhaust Ukrainian Forces in Bakhmut
- Deadly fight against the penal battalions threatens Kyiv’s ability to mount spring offensive -

Will see if I can find the rest of this published 2 hours ago.