Grigb Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Let's talk about the Russian economy. The following are notes from an interview with RU economist Milov. This is the point of view of the RU Liberals, but it is backed up by proof. Quote Russia is running out of money, inflation is rising, and the real estate market is in disarray. Milov on Russia's Economy The RU budget deficit in January was 1.76 trillion RUB. Originally, the Russian government projected a 3 trillion RUB deficit for the whole year. The current Russian budget was prepared using a projected deficit of 3 trillion RUB and an oil price $70. The current price is $50. As a result, the real deficit will be twice as large. The Russian government is concerned about the country's deficit and is looking for someone to rob - oil or general industry. In a similar circumstance, the Soviet government stole from oil industry. As a result, oil production fell by half in a few years. Following it, the USSR disintegrated. RU The steel sector is in disarray. Production fell by 16%. Steel transportation fell by 32%. In December, retail turnover decreased by -10.5%. Even the New Year's shopping holidays were ineffective. Industrial production plummeted -4.3% in December as well. According to preliminary January figures, Russian citizens dramatically reduced their purchases. Accordingly, there is no any indications of recovery. Everything falls down. The Russian economy is in a deep recession with no way out. The Russian government's claim that inflation is diminishing is a falsehood. They fiddle with the numbers. The March 2022 inflation rise was a one-time inflation shock. Systemic inflation is now underway. Official figures show that prices on January 23 are 22.5% higher than in January 20. The true figures are close to 25%. The RU government will index salaries by just 11%. The RU government and the Central RU Bank are in conflict. The Russian government wants to lower interest rates (to revive the country's failing economy), but the central bank wants to raise them to combat inflation. Milov quotes the work of several renowned Russian economists: Much worse than a crisis. The Russian economic system and where it is heading - the RU government has no solution to their difficulties. Milov discusses well known RU economist/banker/politician Mikhail Zadornov Forbes interview - RU is at a dead end since it is incapable of replacing imports from the West, neither in terms of technology nor physical parts. Replacing Western equipment with Chinese equipment is actually costly; for example, Chinese vehicles in Russia are very pricey. The mortgage market is a bubble that is still expanding. The Putin-connected elite, however, continues to live in extreme luxury. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 7 minutes ago, Grigb said: Let's talk about the Russian economy. The following are notes from an interview with RU economist Milov. This is the point of view of the RU Liberals, but it is backed up by proof. Well, then lets hope for the best, that russian economy will go tits up within this year. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 No need to worry about speed limit radar controls... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 24 minutes ago, Grigb said: Let's talk about the Russian economy. The following are notes from an interview with RU economist Milov. This is the point of view of the RU Liberals, but it is backed up by proof. Where is that guy who did a drive by a hundred pages back on how the Russian economy was invincible? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, The_Capt said: No I meant “still” as in AirPower appears to have been working like it was designed to on day 1. Unknown is the ISR, could have been a lucky find, crowd sourced or western fed - knowing the west we would have linked AirPower into ISR first because those are the rules we play by. And then at some point it all stopped working, for both sides. It has been termed “mutual denial” or “denial parity” but when was the last time we saw a high profile airstrike like this? There were others but then they dropped off. “Why that happened?” is just one of the big questions of this war. Interesting comment from RU about that period that might help: Quote During the first two days of fighting, there was almost no air defense cover [AD was not provided]; from Chaplinka to Kherson, enemy planes burnt not one, but at least three columns, each of which had more than a dozen men. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Agent Murz reports: many Russian artillerymen were given cumulative BP-540s instead of high-explosive fragmentation shells. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 45 minutes ago, Grigb said: , but at least three columns, each of which had more than a dozen men. I suspect there is a mis-translation here ... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 24 minutes ago, Grigb said: many Russian artillerymen were given cumulative BP-540s instead of high-explosive fragmentation shells. ... and here ... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NamEndedAllen Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 New homegrown Ukrainian long range munition just reported: With little fanfare, Ukraine has developed and used a guided artillery rocket in combat with a longer range and heavier warhead than the vaunted Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) munitions provided by the U.S. and allies. Called the Vilkha-M, it is a modified 7.6m (25-foot) long Soviet BM-30 Smerch multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) artillery rocket. The Vilkha-M has a range of 110km (68 miles) and a 300mm, 485-pound warhead that can hit targets with great accuracy, Ivan Vinnyk, first deputy head of the National Association of Ukrainian Defense Industries, told The War Zone Tuesday. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-is-using-guided-rockets-with-more-range-than-himars-launched-ones 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, The_Capt said: Where is that guy who did a drive by a hundred pages back on how the Russian economy was invincible? Maybe using this plane from Sochi? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) 31 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said: New homegrown Ukrainian long range munition just reported: With little fanfare, Ukraine has developed and used a guided artillery rocket in combat with a longer range and heavier warhead than the vaunted Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) munitions provided by the U.S. and allies. Called the Vilkha-M, it is a modified 7.6m (25-foot) long Soviet BM-30 Smerch multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) artillery rocket. The Vilkha-M has a range of 110km (68 miles) and a 300mm, 485-pound warhead that can hit targets with great accuracy, Ivan Vinnyk, first deputy head of the National Association of Ukrainian Defense Industries, told The War Zone Tuesday. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-is-using-guided-rockets-with-more-range-than-himars-launched-ones In subsequent conversations on Wednesday, Vinnyk told The War Zone that the Vilkha-M modification program began in 2018 and that about 100 units have been produced. It's sad when Vinnik, having this post, shows own incompetence. In 2018-19 were produced 98 missiles "Vilkha" with range 70 km, not "Vilkha-M" (110 km). Latter bogged on stage of tests - militaries had some notes and tweaking of issues is dragged on in time. But if this missile really could launch to produce, this is great. On tests in 2019 "Vilkha-M" showed CEP 30 m on 100 km. Since the year CEP was reduced to 15 m on 110 km Edited March 2, 2023 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Kolomna, maybe another "smoking accident"? Time will tell. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Grigb said: Agent Murz reports: many Russian artillerymen were given cumulative BP-540s instead of high-explosive fragmentation shells. Most interesting, that Murz mentioned here special soft for artillery, which should be updated for BP-540 ammunitions. This shows, Russians also have some civil volunteer sector, which try to implement to army some digital things, which can increase speed of calculations and accuracy of firing data. I think these PDA with soft not so common, due to conservatism of generals and absense of initiative among field officers in improving own capabilities, but who wants, he will find. Probably Russian level of technologies of firing data calculation now as in Ukriane in early 2015, when first version of GISArta has appeared. Edited March 2, 2023 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Rare footage of armor vs. armor Two tanks of UKR 53rd mech.brigade (marked by red circles) engaged armored column of 1st "Slavianskaya" DNR motor-rifle brigade in 1,5 km NE from Vodiane village, Avdiivka area. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) HMMWV of Belarusian volunteers of Kalinovskiy regiment in street clashes in Bakhmut. Vehicle was shelled and one 7.62 bullet as claimed in original TG post hit windshield, but didn't penetrate. Edited March 2, 2023 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSBoxer Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Quote “We have no armed forces that are capable of defending [Germany] that is, capable of defending [it] against an offensive, brutally waged aggressive war,” German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said during a meeting with fellow members of the Social Democratic Party. The minister claimed that the German army is understaffed and does not have adequate equipment as it has been neglected from the federal government for decades. https://www.firstpost.com/world/german-defence-minister-says-his-country-cannot-protect-itself-in-war-12232132.html This is concerning 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) 36 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Kolomna, maybe another "smoking accident"? Time will tell. Sound of explosion in Kolomna Edited March 2, 2023 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Grigb said: Let's talk about the Russian economy. The following are notes from an interview with RU economist Milov. This is the point of view of the RU Liberals, but it is backed up by proof. This has a lot of echoes of the credit crunch before the Great Recession. (not suggesting global impact btw, there will be some local to RU but the rest, we'll keep on getting fat Edited March 2, 2023 by Kinophile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, MSBoxer said: https://www.firstpost.com/world/german-defence-minister-says-his-country-cannot-protect-itself-in-war-12232132.html This is concerning 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) After act 1 with RVC in Briansk oblast, now act 2 proceeds. Partisans of "Atesh" in Crimea claimed they prepared to UKR offensive, stored weapon and ammunition in multiple places and expects ZSU in Dzhankoy. With offensive starting they are going to make diversions, attack different military and admninistrative buildings. Thay also send greetings to RVC. Edited March 2, 2023 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yskonyn Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, MSBoxer said: https://www.firstpost.com/world/german-defence-minister-says-his-country-cannot-protect-itself-in-war-12232132.html This is concerning Well, this is what you get when government has cut defense funding for the last decade or two. The Netherlands presides in a similar state and I am sure many EU countries have a similar sorry military status. IF it would come to a conventional war where borders need to be defended on a per country basis. The (political) narrative here in the Netherlands has been that we don't need a conventional war defensive military, but that we are better off with smaller scale but more high tech military in order to assist in NATO ops. (in a nutshell), despite ongoing pleas from within our military to act otherwise. Luckily the narrative seems to be changing and we have NATO. And I don't see a conventional war coming into western europe anytime soon either. But I don't think there is any discussion anymore about the need to bolster military assets and funding for the coming years in NATO countries. Edited March 2, 2023 by Yskonyn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, MSBoxer said: https://www.firstpost.com/world/german-defence-minister-says-his-country-cannot-protect-itself-in-war-12232132.html This is concerning Nothing of this should come as a surprise to anyone here. We German forumites told you so more or less every time when everyone demanded that Germany should deliver Leopards from Bundeswehr stocks to Germany. Edited March 2, 2023 by Butschi 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Intense road traffic %) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Beeb's latest on the response of Putin and his laughable cronies to the Bryansk incursion... Thing that made me chuckle: Quote Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said FSB forces and regular troops on Thursday clashed with "Ukrainian nationalists" who had crossed into Russia and taken hostages. The FSB said the "nationalists" were then hit with a massive Russian artillery strike So they dropped an artillery stonk on the hostage situation... I mean, they probably didn't, from what was said earlier, given that no hostages were taken and the raiders didn't hang about to be blown to smithereens, apparently, but it's so emblematic of the Russian approach to problems; I'm sure they would have, and the Zombies back home would be just as enthusiastic, which would be funny if it wasn't so sad. It's such bull that it its only purpose is internal propaganda, but it remains a bit terrifying that the intended audience will lap this nonsense up like it's vodka. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Haiduk said: Intense road traffic %) Wasn't there a very similar post right when the Kherson count6er attack kicked off? The one that collapsed the northern third of the pocket. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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