How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

When I watched it my first thought was "I don't think I've seen a CM vehicle that suffered a mobility kill move that far before stopping. Please fix or do somefink."

Believe me, there's a note about this in my long list of "oh, isn't that interesting to see" moments from this war.

Steve

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Between the difficulty of attacking across a narrow isthmus, American concerns about lunging across a potential redline and the obvious observation that Crimea could be a bigger, more decisive Kherson it's fairly odd to me that this is not being touted as a highly plausible goal of the next UA offensive. In fact, it would be hard to find a more satisfying outcome than a grudging Russian withdrawal from Crimea due to an inability to sufficiently water, feed and supply it.

Back last year I was also concerned that Crimea could be a Russian “red-line” and the threat of losing it could lead to WMD escalation.  That 10km corridor is where it would likely happen.

But I am at the point where I think the Russian “red-line” is further back, likely Russian home soil itself.  My reasoning is that if Putin had the backing and internal justification for WMD release, he would have done it by now.  Russia has not demonstrated a lot of restraint in breaking LOAC so why have we not seen the use of chemical weapons in the attacks in the Donbas?  These were sold as make-or-break assaults and if Putin’s back is up against the wall here (and he could get away with it) we likely would have seen WMD use this winter.  We did not.

So this does not mean Russia will never use them but clearly the calculus has to be far more stark.  I also suspect Putin’s is concerned about western escalation and possible Chinese pressure in the event Russia goes this way. The WMD line clearly has a high bar in the Russia thinking.  Further if Crimea is choked out and simply folds like Kherson did, WMDs are likely not going to save them but could seriously unite the west further - even the most rabid pro-Russian shills are going to have a tough time of it if Putin’s goes in this direction.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

This 'raid' tactic, with 3 BMPs + 1 or 2 tanks crossing an open field to bombard enemy positions (well within RPG range!), then withdrawing again the way they came once the enemy mortars start dropping, seems quite risky.

Is it worth the payoff in (entrenched) enemy killed? The Ukes must have high confidence that the Wagnerite grunts don't have ranged ATGW.

Anyone else care to comment?

Geolocation and (less coherent) highlight reel here:

I had the same feeling about the raid itself.  They either had some reason to suspect the Wagnerites weren't armed all that heavily or they decided to make an extremely risky raid.  Given how poorly Wagner equips its cannon fodder, if UA determined this was a prisoner/mobik unit then they might have made some assumptions.

Some things I took from this:

1.  the difficulties of directing artillery when you aren't sure if you're the only ones playing in the sandbox.  They had much confusion about the hits on the canal being theirs or someone eslse's.  This matters a lot since if they are theirs they need to redirect them, but if they correct based on someone else's hits that could be disastrous. 

2.  it seems some of the time BMPs were simply driving around to confuse or distract the defenders when not providing covering fire.  If that was a predetermined role for those vehicles they probably didn't have dismounts in/on them as all that would do is invite friendly casualties.

3.  these guys, at least, seem to love the 120mm mortars!

4.  one guy seemed to be doing the controls while the other was watching form a tablet.  We've seen this before and it makes a lot of sense.  It allows the controller to concentrate on keeping the drone operating as desired without trying to also make sense of what the drone is seeing.

5.  they don't like going into high zoom mode ("5") presumably because every second they do that they lose situational awareness.  Makes a lot of sense.

Good stuff.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Back last year I was also concerned that Crimea could be a Russian “red-line” and the threat of losing it could lead to WMD escalation.  That 10km corridor is where it would likely happen.

But I am at the point where I think the Russian “red-line” is further back, likely Russian home soil itself.

I get the same feeling.  I also think that Putin might welcome Ukraine investing into Crimea for various reasons, such as hoping they get bogged down there and taking pressure off everywhere else.  Russia could then maybe counter attack in a place like Luhansk or down along the Azov coast to cut off Ukraine's forces in Crimea. 

If the Russians are thinking along these lines, or start to as Ukraine begins to invade Crimea, then I'm sure at that point they'll know they're done for.

The more likely scenario, I think, is as Ukraine approaches Crimea that Russia might get serious about a ceasefire.  I don't think they want to risk having Ukrainian forces cross over into Crimea proper.  It's really dangerous politically and economically for the Putin regime.

Steve

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

I get the same feeling.  I also think that Putin might welcome Ukraine investing into Crimea for various reasons, such as hoping they get bogged down there and taking pressure off everywhere else.  Russia could then maybe counter attack in a place like Luhansk or down along the Azov coast to cut off Ukraine's forces in Crimea. 

If the Russians are thinking along these lines, or start to as Ukraine begins to invade Crimea, then I'm sure at that point they'll know they're done for.

The more likely scenario, I think, is as Ukraine approaches Crimea that Russia might get serious about a ceasefire.  I don't think they want to risk having Ukrainian forces cross over into Crimea proper.  It's really dangerous politically and economically for the Putin regime.

Steve

Or, UKR could threaten Crimea, encouraging RUS to reinforce it, and not with ****ty units either. This could weaken/loosen defenses elsewhere, plus concentrating desired targets into a smaller AO.

Kherson 2.0 for sure.

A nice aspect is that once UKR properly drop the bridge then RUS has a serious problem on its hands, and no way could it retreat unmolested like Kherson.

The best part though is that UKR doesn't actually need to finally assault or take Crimea. They just need to sufficiently threaten it (and maintain the threat/degradation) so that RUS unbalances its operational forces structure, sticking important numbers of useful units south into an operational cul-de-sac and logistical chokepoint. Cut the access points and let Crimea wither on the vine while the Ukes go off to kick the living **** out the mobiks south of Donetsk.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The more likely scenario, I think, is as Ukraine approaches Crimea that Russia might get serious about a ceasefire. 

The fascinating question is would Putin still be leading the Russian government that suddenly wanted to negotiate. at SOME point the rest of the silovki are going to realize that every day the war continues there is less to steal.  

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

A nice aspect is that once UKR properly drop the bridge then RUS has a serious problem on its hands, and no way could it retreat unmolested like Kherson.

There's a lot of Crimean coastline and plenty of mainland Russian ports.  They did pretty well without the road and rail capacity that was lost due to the truck bomb, so I'd not count them out so easily.  I thought the Dnepr would be a lot harder on Russia than it turned out to be.

For Ukraine to effectively interdict Russian shipping they will need loitering PGMs and/or a lot more presence on the water itself (suicide boats, anti-ship missiles, etc.).  That may only be possible if they've already established themselves on the western coast and/or deep into the interior.  In either case, Russia would have to already be in big trouble.

Steve

[chrisl]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Believe me, there's a note about this in my long list of "oh, isn't that interesting to see" moments from this war.

Steve

It's not the first time I noticed, just one of the more dramatic.  I've been impressed with the number of T-72s that someone presses the "start toast" button on and yet they keep rolling before they pop.  Like the engines work, and the drivers maybe survived (or are stuck on the controls) while the turret gets ready to do its thing.

[chrisl]

I can't tell if this sounds like a threat or an invitation:

 

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's report has two points up top that we've been discussing here over the past couple of days:

Quote

Russian officials are promoting an information operation that falsely frames Russia’s war in Ukraine as existential to the continued existence of the Russian Federation. In an interview with TV channel Rossiya-1 on February 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that he does not know if "such an ethnic group as the Russian people can survive in the form in which it exists today" if the West succeeds in "destroying the Russian Federation and establishing control over its fragments."[1] Putin accused the collective West of already having plans "set out on paper" for the destruction of the Russian Federation in its current form.[2] Putin also remarked that Russia had to suspend its participation in the START treaty in order to ensure its strategic stability and security in the face of a concerted Western effort to use START to cripple Russia’s strategic prospects.[3]

Interestingly, ISW does not speculate as to the motivation behind Russia switching from a message of confidence in victory to attempting to convince Russians they are on the edge of annihilation.  I've said it already, but I will repeat it... things are much worse within Russia than it appears to us.  I'll elaborate.

Put has consistently lied to Russians as to how the war is going, saying everything is going fine when the exact opposite is true.  Now he is telling the Russians that this war could be the end of Russia as a nation state and as a culture.  The obvious motivation to switch the primary message (or emphasis, because he has hinted at this in the past) is to get the people so fearful that they will both sign up to fight and stay compliant for the sake of everything that is Russian.  Basically, he's going all Götterdämmerung.

This is very much a move of desperation IMHO.  Confidence that he can keep hoodwinking Russians about how things are (militarily, politically, and economically) seems to be very low, otherwise he'd keep the happy face message.  And if this strategy fails, what does he have left?  Nothing.  Which is why I think he's avoided this sort of thing until now.

In short... I think this is a very good thing to be seeing ahead of this...

Quote

Ukrainian military officials continue to respond to Western concerns about Ukrainian capabilities to liberate Ukrainian people and land and suggest that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a spring counteroffensive in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian Deputy Head of the Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadim Skibitskyi stated on February 26 that Ukrainian forces will be ready for a counteroffensive in spring 2023 and that one Ukrainian strategic goal is to split the Russian frontline between Crimea and mainland Russia. Skibitskyi noted that the supply of Western military aid is one decisive factor in determining the timing of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Western officials and news outlets have recently expressed a degree of doubt about Ukrainian forces’ ability to conduct a counteroffensive and the West’s ability to provide long-term military aid to Ukraine, as ISW has previously reported.[9] ISW’s prior assessments of Russian military capabilities along the Zaporizhia Oblast front line suggest that there are opportunities for Ukraine to conduct a counter-offensive in that strategically vital region

Putin does appear to be, in part, preparing Russia for something really bad coming in a few months.  Loss of territory, more strikes on the homeland, lots of dead, more embarrassment in the skies, ships sunk... whatever the case might be, it appears Ukraine is preparing to do something big and Putin is concerned they could pull off enough of it to make the current happy face lies fail miserably.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, chrisl said:

It's not the first time I noticed, just one of the more dramatic.  I've been impressed with the number of T-72s that someone presses the "start toast" button on and yet they keep rolling before they pop.  Like the engines work, and the drivers maybe survived (or are stuck on the controls) while the turret gets ready to do its thing.

Tanks, especially, seem to be able to operate for a couple of hundred meters even with a direct hit to the engine compartment.  Many of the videos I've seen seem to show the tank being abandoned due to smoke buildup in the crew compartments, perhaps before the engine quits.

I've got a decent amount of experience with combustion engines, drivetrains, transmissions, suspension systems, etc.  Sometimes a simple part failure can cause the vehicle to come to a stop pretty quickly, as in meters.  Oh, like a U-joint on a drive shaft shattering while driving up a hill in the snow 12 miles away from the nearest road (you know, random example!).  Vehicle comes to a dead stop right there. 

Other times a failure can involve the vehicle being usable for a while, like a radiator's pressure relief valve getting stuck and rupturing the coolant tank 3 miles away from the nearest road (oh, another random example).  Vehicle can keep going, but returning to base SLOWLY is the best course of action.  Especially with all that coolant messing up the visibility through the windshield (again, random example). 

And still other times fragments can cause damage to an engine, slicing through SOME wires and SOME hoses, but leaving enough for the engine to function for a little while longer (fortunately, not something I've experienced).  In such cases the vehicle might behave absolutely normally, including being able to stop, start, turn, reverse, etc. until whatever got severed is overwhelmed.  It is possible to drive something like a tank with a damaged engine block for a bit until the oil and coolant leaks cause it to seize (trust me, it doesn't take long).

Anyhoo, the point of all this is that there's lots of ways for mechanical failure to manifest itself.  A hit to the engine compartment may mimic the range of problems, not just instant destruction.

Steve

[chrisl]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've got a decent amount of experience with combustion engines, drivetrains, transmissions, suspension systems, etc.  Sometimes a simple part failure can cause the vehicle to come to a stop pretty quickly, as in meters.  Oh, like a U-joint on a drive shaft shattering while driving up a hill in the snow 12 miles away from the nearest road (you know, random example!).  Vehicle comes to a dead stop right there. 

I saw that happen to a guy on the street when I was walking in Boston one evening. He was going about 40 and the car spun when the driveshaft hit the pavement.  He's lucky it didn't dig into a pothole and send him pole vaulting. 

But yeah, there are a lot of things that can make a vehicle stop moving that don't necessarily finish off the engine or happen immediately.  So CM needs more zombie AFVs.

[JonS]

50 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russian officials are promoting an information operation that falsely frames Russia’s war in Ukraine as existential to the continued existence of the Russian Federation.

I mean ... is that really false framing? It probably was in the second half of Feb 2022, but now? Given how poorly things have gone, it's probably not unreasonable to see "Russia’s war in Ukraine as existential to the continued existence of the Russian Federation" now.

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by JonS

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

I can't tell if this sounds like a threat or an invitation:

 

Interestingly, the first photo shows palletization.

The second photo...naturalization (with the elements)

 

[GAZ NZ]

Interesting interviews with a British volunteer fighting in Ukraine 

Ukraine forces have been taking according to him moderate to heavy losses

It's an interesting perspective about life on the lines and what he has seen

https://youtu.be/YqWUyjpbJX8

Edited February 28, 2023 by GAZ NZ

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Interestingly, the first photo shows palletization.

The second photo...naturalization (with the elements)

 

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

I can't tell if this sounds like a threat or an invitation:

 

Given that the entire economy of Transnistria (and Moldova for that matter) since 1990 has been smuggling and trafficking in stolen goods, I feel like the solution involves an additional pallet, of crisp 20 Euro notes. 

It is 100% certain there are no-neck gentlemen in Odessa who can handle that transaction with very little fuss, to the profit and satisfaction of all parties concerned, save Mr. Putin.

[GAZ NZ]

My auntie who was teaching English  in one of the African states for one of the big multi national companies prior to covid said the ports were completely run by the Russians and it was very corrupt 

They were warned to stay well away from those areas 

So with what's going on in other parts of Europe I'm not surprised 

New Zealand is overrun with gangs and corruption at the moment and crime is through the roof 

It's similar to a Russian criminal take over in some respects but more out of control

It's not great here plus we have massive storm damage 

Young people under age of 16 are committing serious crime  and nothing happens as they cannot go to jail 

It's all over social media 

Our system is broken and with all the mental heath issues probably 50 percent of the population have it's not a great situation 

If nothing is done i can see serious consequences 

It's getting really bad in NZ 

 

 

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by GAZ NZ

[sburke]

1 minute ago, GAZ NZ said:

It's getting really bad in NZ 

I think it is @JonS fault.

[JonS]

26 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

New Zealand is overrun with gangs and corruption at the moment and crime is through the roof 

It's similar to a Russian criminal take over in some respects but more out of control

lol.

Maybe, I don't know ... travel a bit?

[JonS]

25 minutes ago, sburke said:

I think it is @JonS fault.

well, d'uh.

It's important to have hobbies, and ambitions. What's yours?

[Kinophile]

50 minutes ago, GAZ NZ said:

My auntie who was teaching English  in one of the African states for one of the big multi national companies prior to covid said the ports were completely run by the Russians and it was very corrupt 

They were warned to stay well away from those areas 

So with what's going on in other parts of Europe I'm not surprised 

New Zealand is overrun with gangs and corruption at the moment and crime is through the roof 

It's similar to a Russian criminal take over in some respects but more out of control

It's not great here plus we have massive storm damage 

Young people under age of 16 are committing serious crime  and nothing happens as they cannot go to jail 

It's all over social media 

Our system is broken and with all the mental heath issues probably 50 percent of the population have it's not a great situation 

If nothing is done i can see serious consequences 

It's getting really bad in NZ 

 

 

 

Sorry for your troubles. Do you have Russian artillery destroying your cities,  Russian missiles murdering civilians in their apartments,  Russian criminals torturing,  raping and murdering women and children,  has NZ lost tens of thousands of its people to military action in an utterly pointless invasion? 

No? 

Then maybe whine about your nonsense above somewhere else. 

You got it good and you don't even know it. 

[hcrof]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

This is probably more accurate than firing them from a helicopter, and takes a twentieth of the resources.

Note the added stabilizer legs and the fact they are firing quite slowly. Definitely going to be more accurate than earlier in the war when they would just spray off rockets from the back of an unmodified pickup. 

[Butschi]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Sorry for your troubles. Do you have Russian artillery destroying your cities,  Russian missiles murdering civilians in their apartments,  Russian criminals torturing,  raping and murdering women and children,  has NZ lost tens of thousands of its people to military action in an utterly pointless invasion? 

No? 

Then maybe whine about your nonsense above somewhere else. 

You got it good and you don't even know it. 

I'm also a bit confused how the situation in NZ relates to Ukraine but the world isn't divided into war zones and unicorns with rainbows. Pain and suffering is always a very subjective and relative thing. Ever watched a child losing its favorite toy or something? You'll say "I wish I had these kinds of problems again." while for the child it is the worst imaginable thing to happen. And if you've ever been in a particularly bad personal situation you can't understand how the world doesn't stop turning immediately and people continue whining about their trivial problems. Oh well.

[Huba]

I'm not sure that's how "mechanized logistics" should work...

 

[Peregrine]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

I'm also a bit confused how the situation in NZ relates to Ukraine but the world isn't divided into war zones and unicorns with rainbows.

My trip to Hobbiton is sounding a bit shaky. Sounds like they have an Orc problem too.