How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, kevinkin said:

Or China might want to appear to be the "adult in the room" and make overtures toward talks. Meanwhile they their true motivations lie elsewhere. In the end, each side will have to claim victory even though the victory is pyric. Even a hint of CCP support must help Russian moral at this point. Does Biden's "continue to have Ukraine’s back" translate well into Mandarin? Increasingly, it looks like China won't let Russia collapse. That would be bad PR within the ant-west community. 

 

Won’t let Russia collapse but does not want to get dragged down with them.  So the next question is “who is actually calling the shots on the Red team now?”

[NamEndedAllen]

And here it is. Very general. Includes ending the sanctions, ending Cold War mentality. Says there should be peace talks.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html

Honestly, after reading it and its vague platitudes it looks more like a stunt to score some points. Tellingly, it solemnly restates China’s oft spoken “respect international borders”…right after refusing to vote for the UN resolution on the anniversary of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, for Russia to immediately withdraw its forces from all Ukraine. Oh, right! Russia already annexed that big chunk of invaded territory. So, problem solved tor China!

Edited February 25, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Seminole said:

‘Determined to believe’?

Not at all, but I’m open the notion that as global productivity continues to increase the relative dominance enjoyed by ‘the West’ shrinks in relative size.  
 

In the early 1950s the Chinese stymied ‘the world’ in Korea.  What do you figure the relative economies compared then to now, when China is the largest trading partner of most nations on the globe.  
 

I get they have a lot more people, so their per capita wealth is still distant to what most Westerners enjoy.  Yet that underscores the point, that when they achieve just 1/3rd our productivity they’ll have much larger economies. 
 

Our relative global economic dominance can really only continue to shrink from here, unless we can convince the BRICS to embrace communism.  

Sure, I kinda see where you're coming from, but I'm here to discuss the Ukraine war.

...So if you have a hypothesis that the BRICS and 'Global South' are now strong enough to defy/frustrate the West and help Russia achieve victory or a stalemate (frozen conflict) before this war ends, go ahead and outline the mechanisms. Otherwise, it's OT.

And saying well, they are the future, etc. is kind of handwavy. I live and do business in developing Asia, and what I see is that regardless of what US-bashing local press and pols may spout, there is simply NO comparison between the influence of Western capital and cultural exchange and that of China et al. The latter's influence and popularity is presently limited 100% to what it can buy.

...When I see thousands upon thousands of top quality Indian engineers emigrating to Moscow, Shenzhen or Joburg instead of California and Toronto, I'll start to worry.

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Or China might want to appear to be the "adult in the room" and make overtures toward talks. Meanwhile they their true motivations lie elsewhere. In the end, each side will have to claim victory even though the victory is pyric. Even a hint of CCP support must help Russian moral at this point. Does Biden's "continue to have Ukraine’s back" translate well into Mandarin? Increasingly, it looks like China won't let Russia collapse. That would be bad PR within the ant-west community. 

 

Won’t let Russia collapse but does not want to get dragged down with them.  So the next question is “who is actually calling the shots on the Red team now?”

[theFrizz]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

If you’re talking government fiat, hard to argue that the dollar hasn’t been the ‘cleanest dirty shirt’ for the last 50 years, but what has happened to its purchasing power over just that time?

If you told me I had to put my savings in one currency and couldn’t purchase anything for five years, I’d select the one that governments can’t print: bitcoin. 

 

I try not to fuss... but I can't deal with crypto stuff on this thread. 

Edited February 25, 2023 by theFrizz

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

And here it is. Very general. Includes ending the sanctions, ending Cold War mentality. Says there should be peace talks.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html

It is that first one.  If XJ can call of his dog and put it back to heel which is at least 23 Feb 22 lines and then stick China’s neck out and actually guarantee those lines, this could go somewhere.

Now the next question will be reparations and war crimes - since China wants to go all “UN” then this should not be a problem.  And no backroom Ukrainian neutrality BS.  Their first point is in national sovereignty and independence, if Ukraine wants to join NATO, BRIC or the freakin Star Wars Empire they must be able to do so without Russia throwing a kinetic temper tantrum.

Do all that and have Putin quietly retire (preferably to the dirt), and we might be onto something.  If Russia is really going to be China’s dog in all this put the freakin thing back on a leash before we really get serious.

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

I think you are right, and that would put Europe and the USA (Canada too!) in an uncomfortable spot around the world; China the adult in the room, and with the gravitas to make it do.

It is a long, LONG way from a hand wavy, intentionally vague document, to an actual ceasefire, much less a longer term peace. Now I am not saying China couldn't try really put its weight behind a peace plan, but they haven't done it yet. Not real lines on a map, and disengagement protocols for two armies that are trying like bleep to kill each other. I am filing this as much ado about very little until China puts some real effort in. It has to state outright if it is pushing for current battle lines, 2/24 lines, or 2014 lines. That is just the first of a great many steps. At best this a first marker for when at least one side is motivated to talk.

Edit: Cross posted with The_Capt, and as always, he said it better.

Edited February 25, 2023 by dan/california

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

So China is crossing the line with arms supply. Pretty fubar situation. Don't want to sound pessimistic but, the endgame seems to be WW3. It always starts "small" and then things escalate out of control. I haven't seen a single step back since Feb24 from any side. Only steps forward to total war. 

Are wars just inevitable dark tunnels of human destiny, when there is a bottleneck, economic or social and old and new must clash to give a violent birth to a new world?

Or are the elites pulling the strings to a choreographed destruction and redistribution of power and wealth. 

Grateful to have experienced the peaceful and prosperous and years of post WW2. Very insecure about the future:( 

This sort of thing happened routinely during the Cold War without things ever escalating into WW3. What close brushes happened were related to mistakes made outside of the warmer conflicts. And that makes sense. Violent proxy wars get a lot of attention or include a lot of 'communication' as the Capt'n would put it. And while deplorable, China supplying Russia with arms actually gives China a lot more say in what Russia does than if it had not. 

[kevinkin]

38 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

“who is actually calling the shots on the Red team now?”

I guess by default it's the CCP. But what a motley crew they have. 

[alison]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I wonder if China, despite some chest puffing, is not actually reining this whole thing in.  If they can broker/force a peace in this war it will be a win for them.  All we could do was lob kit and kaboodle until China walked in and said “ok, that is enough”?

 

This is the play. "Somebody" leaks hints that a Chinese military contractor could be supplying the Russian war effort so western media and hawks whip themselves up into a lather denouncing China as public enemy number one. Meanwhile the actual Chinese government releases an utterly milquetoast roadmap to peace that succeeds in saying nothing concrete whatsoever, while looking more-or-less reasonable to the casual observer, which includes most countries of the Global South. If Russia leans on a Chinese-brokered peace negotiation to get itself out of the war it is losing then it saves face for them because it won't be seen as a capitulation to the west. Meanwhile China can offer Ukraine a big economic carrot to help rebuild their country, with armies of Belt and Road construction workers all ready to roll.

In the end China looks like the adult in the room to the Global South, they extract their biggest military ally from a dumb war and they get their hooks back into Eastern Europe after losing some ground in Lithuania and (more recently) Estonia, Latvia and perhaps Czechia.

Whether this will succeed remains to be seen, but I think some of the dismissiveness on this thread of the economic relevance of BRICS and the mindset of people in the Global South is indicative of the kind of western hubris that propaganda merchants from authoritaran nations love to hype. Despite the fact that this is transparently a play for power and influence by the Chinese government, there is a chance it could succeed where a western-brokered peace might not. And that's the larger battle that is quietly being fought on the global scale. It's not one that will be won with a more efficient military or better weapons.

[NamEndedAllen]

53 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

if Ukraine wants to join NATO, BRIC or the freakin Star Wars Empire they must be able to do so without Russia throwing a kinetic temper tantrum.

Aye, there’s the rub! And if it came to pass, a clear hands down albeit hard fought bloody victory for Ukraine. And by extension, NATO and Europe. Many a slip twixt cup and lip.

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, alison said:

Despite the fact that this is transparently a play for power and influence by the Chinese government, there is a chance it could succeed where a western-brokered peace might not. And that's the larger battle that is quietly being fought on the global scale. It's not one that will be won with a more efficient military or better weapons.

I don't see Putin buying into anything that leaves Ukraine.

1 Independent

2 democratic

3 Free to join NATO

Short of that it is more posturing by China that will go nowhere.

and it isn't about dismissing the BRICs.  Globalization definitely means more being spread around.  The dismissiveness was in thinking that it means the G7 is somehow in decline.  The mindset of the global "south" is another issue entirely.  Anyone who thinks there is uniformity in the attitude of the global "south" or homogeneity needs to travel more.

 

Quote

"It sounds pretty but it's absolutely false," Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told the Security Council. "Where, when and from whom did you hear that the goal of our military operation is to destroy Ukraine ... We have never stated such a goal."

As Natasha would say in Poker Face - "bullsh1t."

Edited February 25, 2023 by sburke

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, alison said:

And that's the larger battle that is quietly being fought on the global scale. It's not one that will be won with a more efficient military or better weapons.

The lesson of the last year is that real military power actually counts for quite lot. Witness the parade in Kyiv Putin has spectacularly not had. China obliterated Hong Kong's Democracy because it could, it hasn't taken Taiwan because it CAN'T. Real military power sets the table for the rest of the discussion. All the diplomatic niceties really do flow from the balance of kinetic power available to each side.

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Ts4EVER said:

Yeah I have little faith in bitcoin, however, I wouldn't be surprised if China could (for example) push ahead with some state backed digital currency, which would first be used by Russia and other sanctioned countries, but could also be used to undercut the dollar in the third world.

That's an internal confliction within an absurdity. A state backed digital coinage issued by China, first taken up by Russia, then the tiny number of other pariah states, then some more tin pot banana republics in the Third World... Is going to somehow undercut the Western backed,  already in use, easy to trade and deeply familiar American Dollar? 

I mean,  sure,  no one expects the Spanish Inquisition - but that's the Spanish Flea Circus National Judeaen Peoples Liberation Front of The Knight's Who Say Nee! 

Edited February 25, 2023 by Kinophile

[LongLeftFlank]

12 minutes ago, alison said:

I think some of the dismissiveness on this thread of the economic relevance of BRICS and the mindset of people in the Global South is indicative of the kind of western hubris that propaganda merchants from authoritaran nations love to hype.

This thread is once again 'writing its name in the river', but the only hubris I see is on the part of BRICS (plus a few Western white guilt types, Marxist retreads and declinist gold bugs).

First, they ain't anything like a bloc:  Brazil and India play their own game, and South Africa is far more likely to become Yugoslavia or Iraq than the capital of Africa.

So we're really talking about China. Talk about hubris, these guys in Zhongnanghai are 1910 Kaiser-Wilhelem-just-fired-Bismarck level self-centered, arrogant and stupid.  

China has yet to enforce hegemony in its own coastal waters, still less along any other trade route, sea, land or air.  It's sporadically fighting its supposed cohort India in the Himalayas, and Pakistan is eyeing other options when last seen. Its other nearby 'allies' are a grab bag of misery (DPRK? Myanmar? Laos?), and as for the rest its support lasts exactly as long as its massive flows of subsidised white elephants and baksheesh.

None of this adds up to anything close to an alternative power bloc that credibly challenges the Western order in the here and now, or for at least 2 decades.

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sure, I kinda see where you're coming from, but I'm here to discuss the Ukraine war.

...So if you have a hypothesis that the BRICS and 'Global South' are now strong enough to defy/frustrate the West and help Russia achieve victory or a stalemate (frozen conflict) before this war ends, go ahead and outline the mechanisms. Otherwise, it's OT.

I thought it was obvious the sanctions angle applies to the Ukraine war.

I just think back to the effectiveness of sanctions to roll back Iraq in 1990, and how at that time the world was largely in line together enforcing them.  If you measure them by result, Kuwait would still be the '19th province' of Iraq, right?

Now, 30 years later, while the G7s relative share of the global economy has shrunk, and you don't have the near global unanimity. 

Trade wars just make for degrees of loser, not winners, right?  It does seem to me the EU gets the shortest end of this whole trade situation.  

 

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

And saying well, they are the future, etc. is kind of handwavy. I live and do business in developing Asia, and what I see is that regardless of what US-bashing local press and pols may spout, there is simply NO comparison between the influence of Western capital and cultural exchange and that of China et al. The latter's influence and popularity is presently limited 100% to what it can buy.

...When I see thousands upon thousands of top quality Indian engineers emigrating to Moscow, Shenzhen or Joburg instead of California and Toronto, I'll start to worry.

What I recall about Chinese students I saw on campus is that they were to be found not in the Bellamy (History) building, but always thick at the Love (math) building.

When people talk of 're-sourcing' from China to Mexico, I think of this Tim Cook quote.  Is he off base in your experience?

There's a confusion about China. The popular conception is that companies come to China because of low labor cost. I'm not sure what part of China they go to, but the truth is China stopped being the low-labor-cost country many years ago. And that is not the reason to come to China from a supply point of view. The reason is because of the skill, and the quantity of skill in one location and the type of skill it is.

The products we do require really advanced tooling, and the precision that you have to have, the tooling and working with the materials that we do are state of the art. And the tooling skill is very deep here. In the U.S., you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I'm not sure we could fill the room. In China, you could fill multiple football fields.

Edited February 25, 2023 by Seminole
link to full quote

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, alison said:

Despite the fact that this is transparently a play for power and influence by the Chinese government, there is a chance it could succeed where a western-brokered peace might not. And that's the larger battle that is quietly being fought on the global scale. It's not one that will be won with a more efficient military or better weapons.

How could it succeed? It's given nothing to Ukraine. You're looking at this from a Great Powers Make The Big Decsions angle but Ukraine is not some teeny weeny Balkan nobody. It's several tens of millions strong, armed to the teeth, slugging it evenly with the Ivan and winning  and mad as hell. They're in an existencial fight and even then are aware that they'll probably have to fight again in the not-to-far future.  Their children will inherit the Russian problem. 

They're not gonna take it anymore, and there's absolutely zero anything  China can do to affect that mental decision point -  except overtly and substantially taking Russia's side, which would directly contradict the intentions you suggest above. 

China has no pull on Ukraine. So no peace deal is going to happen from Chinese pressure or influence angling, but from American. And if China starts Dickie g around in the war,  then America is in no way going to listen to their offers. It'll just outspend them and American society can take a hell of a lot more spending and not fracture than China. 

Edited February 25, 2023 by Kinophile

[LongLeftFlank]

13 minutes ago, Seminole said:

What I recall about Chinese students I saw on campus is that they were to be found not in the Bellamy (History) building, but always thick at the Love (math) building.

When people talk of 're-sourcing' from China to Mexico, I think of this Tim Cook quote.  Is he off base in your experience?

There's a confusion about China. The popular conception is that companies come to China because of low labor cost. I'm not sure what part of China they go to, but the truth is China stopped being the low-labor-cost country many years ago. And that is not the reason to come to China from a supply point of view. The reason is because of the skill, and the quantity of skill in one location and the type of skill it is.

The products we do require really advanced tooling, and the precision that you have to have, the tooling and working with the materials that we do are state of the art. And the tooling skill is very deep here. In the U.S., you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I'm not sure we could fill the room. In China, you could fill multiple football fields.

Look, I sound like a China basher here. No, I just loathe the CPC (and Communists in general).

I love the Chinese people; after a freeking awful 150 years (mainly self inflicted, although they do love blaming it on opium and Brits), they are just back to doing what they've always done: getting rich (well there is that despoiling the planet thing, but that's a species wide problem).....

So here's the interesting thing, true all through history:  the moment Chinese get out from under the full grasp and control of the Emperor in Beijing (or you have an enlightened Emperor who gives up a little control, always temporarily though), that's when they do REALLY well. 

Exhibits A,B,C....  Taiwan, Singapore, HK, the entire overseas Chinese diaspora.

So fine, China Inc. sets up shop in Mexico, Vietnam, etc.  What you just described is multinationals.  Beijing doesn't get to sock puppet all these organisations, no matter what kind of spyware they put on their phones.

The mountains are high and the Emperor is far away.  And btw, the waters in between are still owned by the US Navy.

Edited February 25, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

31 minutes ago, alison said:

This is the play. "Somebody" leaks hints that a Chinese military contractor could be supplying the Russian war effort so western media and hawks whip themselves up into a lather denouncing China as public enemy number one. Meanwhile the actual Chinese government releases an utterly milquetoast roadmap to peace that succeeds in saying nothing concrete whatsoever, while looking more-or-less reasonable to the casual observer, which includes most countries of the Global South. If Russia leans on a Chinese-brokered peace negotiation to get itself out of the war it is losing then it saves face for them because it won't be seen as a capitulation to the west. Meanwhile China can offer Ukraine a big economic carrot to help rebuild their country, with armies of Belt and Road construction workers all ready to roll.

In the end China looks like the adult in the room to the Global South, they extract their biggest military ally from a dumb war and they get their hooks back into Eastern Europe after losing some ground in Lithuania and (more recently) Estonia, Latvia and perhaps Czechia.

Whether this will succeed remains to be seen, but I think some of the dismissiveness on this thread of the economic relevance of BRICS and the mindset of people in the Global South is indicative of the kind of western hubris that propaganda merchants from authoritaran nations love to hype. Despite the fact that this is transparently a play for power and influence by the Chinese government, there is a chance it could succeed where a western-brokered peace might not. And that's the larger battle that is quietly being fought on the global scale. It's not one that will be won with a more efficient military or better weapons.

A hole in the thing is they would have to convince Ukraine - and that is a pretty damn high ask at this point.  I mean China cutting the West out of the entire end-game would be a brilliant move on a lotta levels, but I am still skeptical they could actually pull it off.  They could build on off-ramp for Putin, but he would have to actually take it - he wants regime survival, which means some BS "wins".  I am betting we would not see normalization between the West and Russia regardless - they did worse than war crimes they stole western companies stuff, so enter new Cold-ish War.

Now if they could get Ukraine onside the entire western position starts to fall apart.  But they are asking Ukraine to basically trust China to call off Russia, while arming Russia?  Could be a signal, or could be crossed wires.

I guess we will see if it is just posturing, or if it is a major power play.

[NamEndedAllen]

23 minutes ago, alison said:

If Russia leans on a Chinese-brokered peace negotiation to get itself out of the war it is losing then it saves face for them because it won't be seen as a capitulation to the west.

Awfully large “IF”.

IF Russia ever agrees to retreat out of ALL Ukraine, not just parts of it,

AND keeps quiet about Ukraine either joining NATO or a similarly powerful and purpose-dedicated military treaty alliance with the USA, Britain and some European nations,

AND the USA’s (60 votes required) Senate actually would ratify such a treaty,

Then Russia will have lost everything and more. Everything spent this year, everything they had before last February’s invasion. Plus, Ukraine would have the power of an Atlantic military alliance that Russia has striven to block for years. No face-saving could disguise these fundamental defeats.

On the other hand, if Ukraine fails to achieve these two pillars, the Ukrainian people and much of the world will see what Russia achieved with no destruction of its own territory, no longer any sanctions, and the successful annexation of large areas of a neighboring country that dared to trust Europe and the USA/NATO to preserve it. All thanks to a China/Russo Alliance. Taiwan will read these more-than-tea leaves. China will too. 
 

I am obviously distrustful of this Chinese gambit. If it were somehow to turn out all roses and chocolates for everyone, with a rebuilt, free and intact Ukraine - terrific.  I’m all for it. I fear actually what might happen is a grudging pause by Ukraine at the urging of Europe and the USA for negotiations that go nowhere,  while Russia rebuilds its military for the next Act (of crimes against humanity). Yes, Ukraine will also rebuild, but the front lines will have been frozen too long, defenses further strengthened, and any reasonable chance for Ukraine to regain any more of its stolen country lost.

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, sburke said:

I don't see Putin buying into anything that leaves Ukraine.

1 Independent

2 democratic

3 Free to join NATO

Short of that it is more posturing by China that will go nowhere.

and it isn't about dismissing the BRICs.  Globalization definitely means more being spread around.  The dismissiveness was in thinking that it means the G7 is somehow in decline.  The mindset of the global "south" is another issue entirely.  Anyone who thinks there is uniformity in the attitude of the global "south" or homogeneity needs to travel more.

 

As Natasha would say in Poker Face - "bullsh1t."

Unless Putin knows just how bad things really are, and China just threw him a lifeline.  Despite all the rhetoric, the guy was 16 years in the KGB and survived the 90s Russian political scene - he is a ruthless cruel genocidal monster, but he is not a complete idiot.  A year in maybe things are a lot worse for Russia than we know, but he does.  So regime survival and not having Russia collapse may be the strategic goals of this war right now.

I too am on the "this is total BS" side, but some things do add up in the right light.

[danfrodo]

24 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

National Judeaen Peoples Liberation Front

no no no it wasn't them, it was the  Judean People's National Front for Liberation

Edited February 25, 2023 by danfrodo

[alison]

37 minutes ago, sburke said:

and it isn't about dismissing the BRICs.  Globalization definitely means more being spread around.  The dismissiveness was in thinking that it means the G7 is somehow in decline.  The mindset of the global "south" is another issue entirely.  Anyone who thinks there is uniformity in the attitude of the global "south" or homogeneity needs to travel more.

Speaking of the mindset of in "the Global South" is no more a generalization then speaking of the mindset of "the west". I don't think it should surprise anyone that there is great diversity of opinion in every country of the world, including developing countries, and authoritarian countries for that matter. There is diversity of opinion everywhere - we see it right here on this thread where western allies bicker all the time. But I also don't think it is helpful to use that diversity as an escape hatch to avoid talking about broader trends in international politics, and specifically how the Chinese government hopes to manipulate those trends to gain power and increase their influence globally.

Personally, although I've seen plenty of skepticism and concern about China around the world, I've also seen a realpolitik acceptance of the fact that Chinese money is not going away, and so it's worth it to at least play both sides, if not throw in completely with what in most cases has become the larger trade partner. I don't think the G7 is in decline, and without a doubt the US and other western democracies continue to have a larger cultural impact via the entertainment industry, selling the immigrant dream and so on. But I don't think it makes sense to dismiss Chinese influence efforts by implying that countries outside of the G7 are too poor or corrupt or self-involved to worry about. I think it does matter how western governments present their case to the rest of the world. I think it's important to win the propaganda battle of what the rules-based international order actually means. And, on this, I think the west hasn't been as successful recently as I would hope.

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

the problem there is no one trusts the Chinese gov't regarding their currency and willingness to alter valuation.  Russia might conceivably buy in for lack of choice, but no other sane currency manager is going to.

Exactly. 

[danfrodo]

I think China is just posturing.  They are playing RU for cheap oil, playing the US for concessions of some sort, while looking both troublesome and a source of conciliation.  It's all just Xi playing some cards. 

I do think, probably quite naively, that China doesn't actually want to see any chinese made suicide drones hitting UKR preschools anytime soon.  Some surveillance drones, sure. 

Edited February 25, 2023 by danfrodo