How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Billy Ringo]

It's going to be difficult for a politician to overcome this type of sentiment and turn their back on Ukraine.  Brad Paisley is a country icon---his words and songs carry weight amongst voters--especially conservative Republican voters in the South.  Listen towards the end, Zelensky speaks directly in the song.  I'm still on my hill.

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[danfrodo]

So no big RU  murder-missile attack to celebrate the anniversary?  

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

Those two planned Leopard 2 battalions are now complete with the added Swedish L2A5s and additional german ones.

btw never ever did I think this total tank number would rise to >760

Edited February 24, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[billbindc]

12 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Oh my this is interesting.  So, if true (big if, first I have heard of lethal aid from China) this would be an escalation.  Odd that China would show its hand so quickly on this one.  Going to have to think about the political implications here.

As to military implications, well not insignificant but also not game changing, yet. Unless China gives Russia an ISR architecture to plug into these munitions are going to have limited deep strike application.  We know China is building a large C4ISR enterprise but it is likely no where near the US capability, and is all pointed in other priority locations.  This kinda looks more symbolic than anything, or perhaps testing western resolve.

Well folks this may be a whole new ballgame if China doubles down though and really starts to backstop Russia, a global proxy war.  This is odd because the west holds the escalation stick right now.  This could trigger a large escalation from the US, the kind of stuff people have been asking for because the US is not kidding around about China. I mean Russia has been a warm up round if this becomes a contest between China and the US. I am surprised as China is simply not ready, too soon by a half.

So people have wrung a lot of hands over this war but we have always said that “until strategic conditions change”.  Well China jumping into this thing would constitute such a condition change. Of course I would worry a lot less about the ‘24 US election if China gets in deep on all this, even the most isolationist candidate is not going to be able to ignore this shot across the bow.

This strikes me as more a maneuver vis a vis the US in response to the balloon disaster than anything else. China knows  that the US has enormous conventional escalatory advantages in Ukraine and it also knows that if there's one thing that absolutely unites US politics is the prospect of conflict with the PRC. Rapidly ramping up aid to Kyiv would be the easiest sell in Washington if China was the perceived foe in addition to Russia.

 

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, Kinophile said:

There are significant caveats to this, no? Does not Ukraine fight (and fought) the way it does out of sheer necessity, not just pre-war doctrine?

Little of column A and a little of column B.  What we don't know is how much was adaptive pressure and how much was already inherent within their C2 system.  What we do know is that they adapted a lot better-faster than their opponent.  Russia on the other hand had all the advantages but looks like it was trying to fight a type of war its C2 system was not aligned for.

11 hours ago, Kinophile said:

An all-western force by its own internal definition, would not operate under the same pressures, fail-points and stressors as the ZSU did at the start, no? A modern, integrated and fully implemented NATO style force (if that's what we're implying here) could not have struggled vis a vis this Russian invasion.

So now down the real question: "how would we do?"  I think if a fully bombed up NATO force were in this exact same fight, and the RA chose to fight us in the manner we were built for, it would have ended badly for them.  We likely would have learned a few hard lessons, particularly about protecting LOCs - everyone keeps skipping over the fact that a modern NATO Battle Group is going to need gas, and that gas is still carried by soft trucks on long stretches of roads in "secure areas".   As soon as an opponent takes away those "secure areas", and it sure as hell looks like UAS can do this, our operational system does not magically just float on.

Would we have won, definitely.  Would it have been as easy as Saddam, no freakin way.  We would have struggled with air superiority and SEAD as well.  A2AD still works against us as well.  In the end however, I think our C4ISR advantage combined with deep precision strike would have cut the RA to pieces in the backfield until we could resume combined arms manoeuvre.  We would have gone "ah-ha, see MC works!" conveniently forgetting that most of the killing was done by tightly controlled targeting cycles that are almost the direct opposite of MC.

But this is really the wrong question.  "How would we have done against the UA?"  Is the much better question.  A force that has dispersed and hybridized, armed with some really wicked next generation stuff and world-class C4ISR over top a crowd sourced ad hoc JADC2-like architecture.  Now that one should be keeping all the military-thinkers up at night, because frankly I do not know.  This would be a force that is operating on a whole new level, likely swinging between hyper-MC style C2 and then DC - on the same mission.  Our back ends are really vulnerable to this - Iraq and Afghanistan taught us that much.  We would be a sledgehammer made of ice swinging at fog.  And no amount of empowerment is going to solve for that. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

Germany throws in 4 additional Leopard 2A6. So we'll have a mixed BTL with 21 Leopard 2A6 (14+4 Germany, 3 Portugal) and 10 Leopard 2A5/Strv 122 from Sweden. 

(in addition to the 2A4 Battalion from Poland & others)

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Der Zeitgeist

[kevinkin]

Nice and concise:

https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/as-russias-military-stumbles-in-ukraine-chinese-strategists-are-taking-notes/

• the PLA is not looking at the Russian invasion of Ukraine through rose-colored glasses. They may indeed acknowledge that a hypothetical invasion of Taiwan would be far from easy.  It could also involve extremely high personnel and equipment losses, not to mention a risk to the prestige that the Chinese armed forces now enjoy both at home, and to some extent, abroad.
• The most glaring critique, according to this Chinese military assessment, is that the Battalion Tactical Group combat units have not been adequate to the task at hand. The report notes, “Deficiencies of the Russian battalion-level tactical groups have been exposed, such as their lacking the ability to be self-sustaining in combat and that they are too weak to be effective. Perhaps with an eye to a potential conflict over Taiwan, the report calls the brigade unit “unable to effectively fight protracted and high-intensity conflicts of attrition.” The proposed reform is “to transform from a brigade back to a division system.”
• The Chinese analysis criticizes the Russian Air Force with having “executed too few sorties,” and says that “the effectiveness of precision strikes was inadequate and coordination with the army was limited.” It is suggested that Russia’s proposed remedy will be to assign “mixed aviation division and army aviation brigades” to each army group to improve “integrated air-ground operations.”
• The Russian Army is realizing the value in empowering the lowest levels of troops and commanders with ISR platforms to speed up target acquisition, reconnaissance, and attacks. Having already studied U.S. adoption of UAVs and drones, and with China’s massive domestic drone industry, this finding looks set to accelerate already the high level of drone use by PLA forces at all levels and within each of its service branches.
• Playing the Nuclear Card 
  Notably, the article also pays close attention to Russia’s repeated nuclear warnings. The PLA analysis notes that while Russia lags in conventional military strength, it is relying on its nuclear deterrent to balance against the United States and NATO. Russia is identified as having pushed back against collective Western pressure by “conducting nuclear exercises, raising the level of nuclear force combat readiness, and warning that the third world war will be a nuclear war.”
  
  The article is actually not too rough on Russia. We all know Russia, and its systems, are rotten to the core and have to fight with that handicap. Maybe the analysis conveniently forgets that since China will fight with the same handicaps. 

 

 

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The same applies for MC vs. DC.  A force that is trained for MC is more likely to be able to accept and properly execute DC constraints than a DC force suddenly finding itself in a MC environment.  Why?  Because it is far easier to convey to a complex mindset the need for simplicity than to get a simple mindset to expand to incorporate complex thinking.

Interesting idea but I am not sure it stands up entirely.  An extreme DC "drone" mindset takes a lot of discipline, brutal discipline in fact.  MC has discipline in a form as well but gives freedom of thought and action by its very definition.  So when shifting from one system to the other: DC is pulling back from hard muscle memory that has been beaten into people and telling them "now think and see" , while MC is asking people to unthink and unsee.

Neither one of these is a small ask and would take a lot of practice and training.  Further Commanders would need to be selected for their abilities to do both and knowing when to apply them.  You are now talking cultural reform, which is really hard to do.

I suspect that the metric of advantage is the agility of the system to swing between C2 models. 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

The western effort to ‘isolate’ Russia amounts to bifurcating the world economy as the ‘western’ share of the world economy continues to shrink in relative size.  
 

I forget the name of the agency created by the U.S. during WW2 to around the world and ‘buy up’ things that could be of value to the Axis powers.  We can’t really do a similar thing today.  
 

I was surprised to see that on GDP PPP basis the BRICS have overtaken the G7.  
 

 

Thanks for responding.

...But if you're determined to believe the BRICS economies outweigh the G7, I can't really help you further. Have you spent time in any of those 5 countries? (3 for me).

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, Dmytro Gadomskyi said:

1 year of the war is passed. From the start of the invasion and to the huge count of air and missile strikes. One of my friends has been killed by wagner artillery in Bohorodichne village near Bakhumt. My father-in-law has been killed by storming the defensive enemy positions in the Kherson region 1st of October. I gave 3 of my salaries (all what I have)on the first day of the war on the military budget. Thanks to all of you, thanks for your help. Taking carry of our refugees, helping our soldiers to destroy enemy forces with AT weapons, artillery, APS, AFV, and Tanks, peoples who served in foreign legions. Thank you for giving billions of money to support our economy. Special thanks to battlefront for small support for me, when I asked about a discount, they gave me 2 games with all DLCs for free - I didn't expect this. Some of my relatives were in Kherson in occupation, and all high-value electronic and expensive things were looted from them by Russian forces. And now we don't fear rocket strikes (10 times they exploded 700-1000m from my house) we don't fear nuclear threat, we don't fear the second army in the world and you shouldnt. Sorry for we English would that what I want to say for all of you, I can tell you many things about the war but first i will try to improve my language knowlages.

Welcome to the thread Dmytro Gadomski!

Is your name on Steam PlayUP? If so I remember your review for Combat Mission Black Sea which I read using Google Translate. That review finally made me buy CMBS and the DLC after nearly a year of hanging out on a forum for a computer game I did not even own.

Your English is good, please don't be afraid to contribute even if you have to use Google Translate to write in English like I need to read Ukrainian. Some of the most interesting posts on this forum come from our Ukrainian friends like @Haiduk and @Zeleban.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

If anything, I think they would have more of a problem with sticking to the Direct Command style, where lower echelons have to follow orders they do not understand or agree with.

And this is a real problem when the higher formation commander knows more than the tactical commander.  Further higher formation commanders do not have time to justify or explain why lower echelons "have to follow orders they do not understand."

I suspect this is already happening in Ukraine.  Higher formation commanders have access to a full suite of western ISR and then integrated tactical feeds - so when that commander says "stop!" and the unit commander is all MC, which by definition allows a lower echelon to go against orders if they follow intent in a changing condition.  This can turn into herding cats pretty fast. 

The answer is to push all the same info to the tactical level but then we run into human brain limitations.  Lower echelons have their hands full are not really going be able to avail themselves of full SA and context all the time - it is why we invented higher echelons.  To the real risk of MC is empowering the people who know less about what is going on. 

As to UAs current situation, my best advice is to "keep doing what you are doing."  Whatever this thing is is working for them.

[Dmytro Gadomskyi]

Yes, I'm "PlayUp" on Steam. I didn't know if my review would help anyone to buy this game, glad to hear that. Thank You!

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Germany throws in 4 additional Leopard 2A6. So we'll have a mixed BTL with 21 Leopard 2A6 (14+4 Germany, 3 Portugal) and 10 Leopard 2A5/Strv 122 from Sweden. 

(in addition to the 2A4 Battalion from Poland, Finland & Spain)

 

Today I am a very proud and happy German-American.  

I am guessing these would be in the field late summer at the earliest?  Delivery, crew & maintenence training, logistics, unit training.  Hopefully can't get into the fight for at least September/October before the mud hits.  

It's gonna be weird in June to see bradley/T72 combined arms units but hopefully at least that will be ready soon.

[The_Capt]

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

This strikes me as more a maneuver vis a vis the US in response to the balloon disaster than anything else. China knows  that the US has enormous conventional escalatory advantages in Ukraine and it also knows that if there's one thing that absolutely unites US politics is the prospect of conflict with the PRC. Rapidly ramping up aid to Kyiv would be the easiest sell in Washington if China was the perceived foe in addition to Russia.

 

Right!?  I mean if this is really going to turn into a global Decision Point war, even the most backward insularism is going to be hard pressed to sell the rolling up of the USA as a viable strategy.  We very may well have lost interest in '24 if this was still "just Russia".  Throw in a real fight with China and the sleeping giant may actually fully awaken.

[sross112]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Interesting idea but I am not sure it stands up entirely.  An extreme DC "drone" mindset takes a lot of discipline, brutal discipline in fact.  MC has discipline in a form as well but gives freedom of thought and action by its very definition.  So when shifting from one system to the other: DC is pulling back from hard muscle memory that has been beaten into people and telling them "now think and see" , while MC is asking people to unthink and unsee.

Neither one of these is a small ask and would take a lot of practice and training.  Further Commanders would need to be selected for their abilities to do both and knowing when to apply them.  You are now talking cultural reform, which is really hard to do.

I suspect that the metric of advantage is the agility of the system to swing between C2 models. 

Isn't it more of a ratio or a mix than just MC or DC? Complete MC would be herding cats as every platoon is just making it's own decisions all the time based on what is right in front of the LT. Complete DC is hugely resource intensive for planning every single thing going on. So in the west for instance, the ratio is more MC, but still moderated and controlled at the higher level DC (phase lines, coordination of elements, etc). 

Even then it seems to me that different units and different missions have different levels of MC and DC. An infantry Bn in fixed defense has a lot more DC from the levels above it than the ACR Squadron and spearhead of an advance would.

By all means correct me and educate me, your experience and training is from a much different level than mine so my perception is certainly subject to being wrong. 

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I am guessing these would be in the field late summer at the earliest?  Delivery, crew & maintenence training, logistics, unit training.

Supposed to be end of March. They pull them from existing Btls. Ukrainian troops are getting training already at german armour school (KTS2) in Munster, Lower Saxony. As soon as the crews are ready they can go to Ukraine. Next step then will be Gefechtstraining (battletraining) on Kp and Btl. level as well as combined arms coordination with mech inf. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Today I am a very proud and happy German-American.  

I am guessing these would be in the field late summer at the earliest?  Delivery, crew & maintenence training, logistics, unit training.  Hopefully can't get into the fight for at least September/October before the mud hits. 

Depends on what "in the field" means. Training on the German 2A6 is currently ongoing in Munster. Transfer to Ukraine should be in late March or so. I guess they'll then do extensive unit training in western Ukraine.

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, Dmytro Gadomskyi said:

1 year of the war is passed. From the start of the invasion and to the huge count of air and missile strikes. One of my friends has been killed by wagner artillery in Bohorodichne village near Bakhumt. My father-in-law has been killed by storming the defensive enemy positions in the Kherson region 1st of October. I gave 3 of my salaries (all what I have)on the first day of the war on the military budget. Thanks to all of you, thanks for your help. Taking carry of our refugees, helping our soldiers to destroy enemy forces with AT weapons, artillery, APS, AFV, and Tanks, peoples who served in foreign legions. Thank you for giving billions of money to support our economy. Special thanks to battlefront for small support for me, when I asked about a discount, they gave me 2 games with all DLCs for free - I didn't expect this. Some of my relatives were in Kherson in occupation, and all high-value electronic and expensive things were looted from them by Russian forces. And now we don't fear rocket strikes (10 times they exploded 700-1000m from my house) we don't fear nuclear threat, we don't fear the second army in the world and you shouldnt. Sorry for we English would that what I want to say for all of you, I can tell you many things about the war but first i will try to improve my language knowlages.

Dmytro,

Frankly, I thought it eloquent. Thank you for fighting for all of us. We are with you. 

Slava!

[akd]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

And what could that be?

Ground-launched 70mm Hydra rockets with laser guidance (APKWS).  I guess they might also possibly be used on helicopters, although that would seem to require complex coordination with a ground-based designator and a lofted trajectory for the rocket.

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/germany_finally_sends_twenty_very_interesting_apkws_weapons_to_ukraine-5350.html

Edited February 24, 2023 by akd

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Depends on what "in the field" means. Training on the German 2A6 is currently ongoing in Munster. Transfer to Ukraine should be in late March or so. I guess they'll then do extensive unit training in western Ukraine.

Ah, yes, I should've been more clear.  "in the field" meant all the pieces that go into having a trained & supplied and operational battalion sized unit, ready for battle w proper logistics tail.  Delivery & crew training could be happening but maintenence & logistics systems need to be set up in theater.   

[danfrodo]

An ode to logistics today:  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/24/2154211/-The-Ukraine-war-is-a-story-about-logistics-and-it-s-still-playing-out-one-year-in

 

[billbindc]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Right!?  I mean if this is really going to turn into a global Decision Point war, even the most backward insularism is going to be hard pressed to sell the rolling up of the USA as a viable strategy.  We very may well have lost interest in '24 if this was still "just Russia".  Throw in a real fight with China and the sleeping giant may actually fully awaken.

In DC it feels like the giant is very much awake. Serious people think that a war over Taiwan is practically inevitable and are taking measures accordingly. It may not be as fast as we’d like or as comprehensive but that particular tectonic plate has moved quite far in the last year. Blinken’s statement outing China’s potential help to Russia isn’t just a warning to Xi…it’s to forestall Chinese attempts to wedge further into EU politics/trade pretending to be a potential arbiter on the war and/or counter point to overwhelming American dominance.

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Isn't it more of a ratio or a mix than just MC or DC? Complete MC would be herding cats as every platoon is just making it's own decisions all the time based on what is right in front of the LT. Complete DC is hugely resource intensive for planning every single thing going on. So in the west for instance, the ratio is more MC, but still moderated and controlled at the higher level DC (phase lines, coordination of elements, etc). 

Even then it seems to me that different units and different missions have different levels of MC and DC. An infantry Bn in fixed defense has a lot more DC from the levels above it than the ACR Squadron and spearhead of an advance would.

By all means correct me and educate me, your experience and training is from a much different level than mine so my perception is certainly subject to being wrong. 

You have pretty much nailed the reality to be honest.  I have been doing this a long time and have rarely seen full MC, and frankly a lot more DC than we would ever admit.  In practice it definitely is a spectrum and applied to varying levels.  Enablers are a really good example - one does not let ones engineers execute iaw "intent" sprinkling obstacles around the battlefield, they execute the plan because there are never enough of them or time to mess around with intent.  Further real world legalities and authorities do not care about our command philosophies - yep, the damned lawyers. 

The biggest issue is that we sell/train for all MC, but we really do not do it in its entirety.  We say the words and then micro-manage because the ex is on a timetable and we need to "win by Fri", we already ordered the BBQ!

However, as technology accelerates, I expect that extremes, and swinging between them, will become more viable.  This will collide directly with culture and hilarity will ensue.