How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So this is another brick in the wall that for Russia this entire thing was built on a bunch of flawed assumptions held by an unchallengeable and unchecked centralized power.  The type of targeting we saw early on was a kind of poor man’s “shock and awe” designed to terrorize but not actually do any damage to Ukraines ability to fight.  

The reason for this is likely a combination of limited Russian capability but even more so the unassailable assumption that Ukraine would not resist.  The complete lack of a centralized operational targeting campaign is likely the best evidence that Russia assumed the war would be over in a week.  

The prewar experts thought there would be a NATO style air campaign to start off the war.  It didn't happen, which led to a lot of puzzled conversations.  The initial explanation was that Russia didn't expect resistance and therefore didn't want to damage infrastructure it felt sure of controlling.  This is no doubt true as it fits in with all the other moronic things the Russian assumed would/wouldn't happen for this Special Military Operation. 

However, after it became very clear to Russia that this was no "operation" but a full scale war their approach didn't change much.  A slight uptick in missile strikes, but that was about it.  Even the Russian mil bloggers noted this and complained bitterly about it.  Which led to some more puzzled conversations amongst the experts.

What came from this was a number of very enlightening analysis about what might be the reason for the near complete absence of a strong and coordinated Russian air campaign.  RUSI's excellent study on this is one that comes easily to mind.  Their conclusion?  Russia's airforce Sucks At War™.  And like so many things we have discussed here, there was much doubt expressed about Russia's ability to fix the problems as they are too big and too complicated to address any time soon (if ever).

Less attention was paid to the stand off, deep strike PGM capabilities.  Then when the waves of attacks finally materialized it became clear that they weren't up to the task either.

In short, Russia's initial air strategy might have been partially restrained for flawed reasoning, but it was also in large part due to Russia simply being unable to do much better than it did.  Meaning, even if Russia went into this war wanting to paralyze Ukraine's infrastructure it was incapable of doing so.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

This kinda stuff is why we keep going on about “Russia losing” and being largely doomed in all this, they are no longer able to shape the operational space, Ukraine can.

The only quibble I have with this is I'm not sure how much Russia was able to shape the operational space at any point in this war.  Certainly naval and air have played no central role in this war at all, with the navy being out of the fight almost immediately.  The ground forces have had more influence on shaping events, however its options have been highly constrained since the start of the war.  It's like a bad kid's birthday magician saying "I can shape any balloon animal you want, as long as it is a snake".

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Speaking of Russian defeats... it seems we can now declare Russia's plan to freeze Europe failed just as badly as everything else has:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-energy-gas-supply-russia-putin-winter/

Note that Europe did get lucky with a mild winter.  However, the point remains the same and that is Putin had a plan and it failed.  Doesn't matter why.

Steve

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

If this war lasts another two years,, expect to start seeing experimental DE AD... 

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy50cmFuc2lzdG9yLmZtL2Zyb20tdGhlLWNyb3dzLW5lc3Q/episode/MzEzNDZlY2QtMTgyOS00NjVlLTg3NTgtMGQ1YzViZWYzNjA2?ep=14

... And definitely in the war after this. 

The other podcasts on that page are good, too.  There's a two-parter on microelectronics and national defense systems, and there are a bunch more that look interesting.

[MikeyD]

As to the air war, lets recall the types of Russian pilots being shot down and captured early in the war. Aging, overweight, apparently alcoholic retiree contractors who had previously also flown as contractors in Syria for Russia. It begged the question why contractors? Why not their own pilots? The most charitable assumption was they were reserving their best pilots to oppose NATO incursion, the least charitable was that Russia simply didn't have the pilots to fight with.

[Aragorn2002]

10 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Ha ha ha  this is just the beginning. I am sure that this is only the beginning, Ukraine will not even receive the promised half of the Leopard tanks. I had this thought when many were happy about the announcement of the delivery of these tanks to Ukraine, but it looked too smooth to be true. I can imagine what kind of soap opera awaits us after the announcement of the delivery of combat aircraft. Intricacies of intrigue and plot twists

Let's not be too cynical. Your country can't complain about the military support the West is providing. The fact that Ukraine is still alive and kicking (back) is proof of that. Apart from that we shouldn't focus too much on those tanks. At the moment they aren't of vital importance. Ammo is much more important. They will become so as soon as Ukraine will start counter offensives again, which will probably be in a couple of months. As much as we like to pretend to know it all on this forum, our leaders aren't as dumb as we think. If they would be, it would tell us more about the people who vote for them, than about their intelligence.

There's only one side which profits from all this 'The West let's Ukraine down'-talk.

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[The_MonkeyKing]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We have been having a lot of laughs here today but I did not want to let this one slip by.  Been watching these summaries go by for about a week now and is it just me or are the Russians losing an increasing number of back-end equipment overall?  Guns, C2, trucks (especially fuel trucks) and even some engineering equipment.  That is 7 guns yesterday alone.  People keep focusing on the front end but the enablers in the RA are taking a beating by the looks of it.

I have been watching this same thing. In the past RUS rarely lost these "back-end equipment" in their own attacks. These types of losses came mostly from when UKR itself advanced.

RUS attrition warfare will not be vary long-lasting if they keep loosing these assets at this rate.

Might be a combination of explanations: RUS didn't do as much combined arms attacks before so this equipment was missing, UKR rear precision strike capability is developing (the whole killchain),  UKR has changed their targeting

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, chrisl said:

The other podcasts on that page are good, too.  There's a two-parter on microelectronics and national defense systems, and there are a bunch more that look interesting.

This was the best one I have listened to from them by quite a lot. Some of them are....unwilling to say much. The only thing I didn't like about this episode was that it didn't give the final performance numbers I really wanted. How many drones can these new laser/microwave toys kill in a minute, at what range, and how long can they keep doing before they have to go drive into a pond to cool down or some similar maneuver. Joking about the pond, a little. I can actually see this kind of system being set up to take external cooling water when it is available. Oh, and every prototype in existence should be in Ukraine proving it can kill Orlan tens in quantity.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I have been watching this same thing. In the past RUS rarely lost these "back-end equipment" in their own attacks. These types of losses came mostly from when UKR itself advanced.

RUS attrition warfare will not be vary long-lasting if they keep loosing these assets at this rate.

Might be a combination of explanations: RUS didn't do as much combined arms attacks before so this equipment was missing, UKR rear precision strike capability is developing (the whole killchain),  UKR has changed their targeting

The happiest explanation is the the UKR finally has ENOUGH artillery to shatter the actual Russian assault forces, and hit deeper at the same time. That would probably kill whatever offensive potential the Russian army has left rather quickly. 

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Speaking of Russian defeats... it seems we can now declare Russia's plan to freeze Europe failed just as badly as everything else has:

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-energy-gas-supply-russia-putin-winter/

Note that Europe did get lucky with a mild winter.  However, the point remains the same and that is Putin had a plan and it failed.  Doesn't matter why.

Steve

I am an inveterate Euro-basher, Scholz most of all but....

Quote

Brussels set member states a voluntary target of cutting gas demand by 15 percent from August last year. Gas demand actually fell by more than 20 percent between August and December, according to the latest Commission data, partly thanks to efficiency measures but also the consequence of consumers responding to much higher prices by using less energy.

This was a massive effort, and extraordinarily important.

[chrisl]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This was the best one I have listened to from them by quite a lot. Some of them are....unwilling to say much. The only thing I didn't like about this episode was that it didn't give the final performance numbers I really wanted. How many drones can these new laser/microwave toys kill in a minute, at what range, and how long can they keep doing before they have to go drive into a pond to cool down or some similar maneuver. Joking about the pond, a little. I can actually see this kind of system being set up to take external cooling water when it is available. Oh, and every prototype in existence should be in Ukraine proving it can kill Orlan tens in quantity.

I've spent some time "directed energy adjacent" and nobody's going to tell you that stuff until there are videos of it happening all over Twitter or whatever replaces it.  People working on some of the key parts don't know anything about the systems they're going into.  It will be hard to get actual numbers until you can buy them at Big 5 for hunting.

Things like range through atmosphere are going to be tricky and variable.  You can do back of the envelope estimates on some of it yourself based on the powers they were tossing around.  I wouldn't be surprised if early models end up in Ukraine, or maybe the Polish border, for "testing", but that's definitely not going to show up on the aid list. And the more successful they are, the less you're going to hear about them. Any video that leaks out will get gaslit with some plausible explanation that doesn't make sense if you look too close.

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

As to the air war, lets recall the types of Russian pilots being shot down and captured early in the war. Aging, overweight, apparently alcoholic retiree contractors who had previously also flown as contractors in Syria for Russia. It begged the question why contractors? Why not their own pilots? The most charitable assumption was they were reserving their best pilots to oppose NATO incursion, the least charitable was that Russia simply didn't have the pilots to fight with.

Why do you think they are contractor pilots? These were the best pilots that Russia has. In the Russian Air Force (as well as in the Ukrainian one), there was a practice when only the most experienced (old) pilots with ranks from major to colonel trained in peacetime. While young pilots did not get the opportunity to train in the air due to lack of fuel (perhaps this was due to the theft of money allocated for pilot training). So when the training fuel got into the squadron and distributed among the aircraft, the commanders chalked up this fuel to their account in order to fly more. This led to the fact that young pilots knew practically nothing.

Remember the losses of Ukraine in the air at the very beginning of the war. They were mostly aged men, in ranks from major to colonel. These were the most trained pilots in Ukraine. The now very famous young pilot with the callsign "Juice", recalling the first days of the war, says that then mostly old pilots with the best training took off (there were not enough planes for everyone). While the young pilots were preparing to repel a possible landing with machine guns in their hands. They dug trenches, were on duty at airfields

Edited February 16, 2023 by Zeleban

[The_MonkeyKing]

on the Leopard 2 coalition from Finland: https://www.iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/ef57d451-937c-4ddf-a5cc-c52e57e6a7b5

"Defense Minister Mikko Savola stated on Wednesday at the NATO headquarters in Brussels that the German-led Leopard coalition is not on the verge of disintegration

- At least it wasn't on the verge of disintegration, here too we have gathered and talked, yes there is a cooperation model here, Savola said at the press conference held after the NATO Defense Ministers meeting.

Welt says that only Poland responded to the number of tanks sent by Germany, although Poland has supplied Ukraine with older tank models.

According to Welt, the Dutch and Danish governments have announced that neither country intends to deliver Leopards to Ukraine

According to Savola, the news that Denmark and the Netherlands refuse to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is false.

- Yes, it is false news, unless the matter has changed in the last 10 minutes, Savola said.

According to the Finnish Minister of Defense, all countries of the coalition are still involved in the project.

- Everyone is involved, who have been until now.

According to Welt's information, Finland is also not going to deliver a single Leopard before the NATO application is approved.

- Yes, we are involved, but I am not saying how many (tanks) we are involved with, Savola told Iltalehte on Tuesday."

[Zeleban]

7 hours ago, Fenris said:

Auto translate says ERA saved this tank from an NVKh hit - anyone know what that is?

 

NVH is неведомая взрывающаяся хуйня (unknown exploding bull****). The commentator hints that he has no idea what type of projectile this was

[Calamine Waffles]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The prewar experts thought there would be a NATO style air campaign to start off the war.  It didn't happen, which led to a lot of puzzled conversations. The initial explanation was that Russia didn't expect resistance and therefore didn't want to damage infrastructure it felt sure of controlling.

They were fools. Russia has zero experience doing that sort of campaign. Even the Soviets had zero experience running that sort of campaign. And bombing defenceless civilians and freedom fighters/rebels in Chechnya or Syria does not count.

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

They were fools. Russia has zero experience doing that sort of campaign. Even the Soviets had zero experience running that sort of campaign. And bombing defenceless civilians and freedom fighters/rebels in Chechnya or Syria does not count.

I still wonder if the strategic rocket forces consists of duct tape, trash cans and Swiss bank accounts? They sure as bleep just faked it everywhere else. If someone tells you to fire an ICBM you and everyone else is (&%^%^&&, and absent that order no one will ever know. Between a missile that you really never want to use, and nice Chalets for long your term mistresses and pretty good Moscow Apartments for the short term ones, it is actually the rational choice. 

Yes I know we don't know that, ect., ect...

 

[Bulletpoint]

Things are not going so well for the Wanker group.

 

 

[FancyCat]

I wouldn't say the naval or air forces haven't played their part, abit lacking. Certainly the naval economic blockade of the Ukrainian black sea ports is a big issue for Ukraine, and as long as they theoretically hold Crimea, either naval or air blockade can make transit for merchant vessels risky to say the least.

During the first days of the war, Russia used their naval control to land forces west of Mariupol, and seized Berdyansk. Certainly Ukraine might have prevented a land bridge between the Donbas and Crimea longer had Russia been prevented from naval landings.

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/russian-navy-carries-out-amphibious-assault-near-mariupol

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by FancyCat

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian soldier fires a mortar towards Russian positions in Bakhmout, February 15, 2023. YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP"
* This is a Mo-120-RTF1 (French 120mm Mortar)

[FancyCat]

S large scale naval landings did not occur west of Mariupol, small scale actions I suppose according to this from USMA occurred a few days after the invasion began.

https://mwi.usma.edu/what-can-we-learn-about-amphibious-warfare-from-a-conflict-that-has-had-very-little-of-it-a-lot/

Now a reporter for RFE noted here that Berdyansk fell 4 days into the invasion.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-berdyansk-russia-occupation-life/31798991.html

Wiki says Mariupol was encircled on March 1st so I suppose either Ukraine had nothing to counter the limited naval landings or Russian units simply sped into Berdyansk on land from the east.

 

 

 

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

I wouldn't say the naval or air forces haven't played their part, abit lacking. Certainly the naval economic blockade of the Ukrainian black sea ports is a big issue for Ukraine, and as long as they theoretically hold Crimea, either naval or air blockade can make transit for merchant vessels risky to say the least.

That is another reason Ukraine must get Crimea back. It is impossible to do any trade in Black Sea if Russians hold Crimea.

[Butschi]

14 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Ha ha ha  this is just the beginning. I am sure that this is only the beginning, Ukraine will not even receive the promised half of the Leopard tanks. I had this thought when many were happy about the announcement of the delivery of these tanks to Ukraine, but it looked too smooth to be true. I can imagine what kind of soap opera awaits us after the announcement of the delivery of combat aircraft. Intricacies of intrigue and plot twists

Beggars can't be choosers, right? I mean, yeah, this is all quite suboptimal, but since you are getting the stuff for free the lever for demanding you should receive the delivery via express mail is rather short.

Anyway, looks like Pistorius was right after all and the list of countries wanting to deliver tanks wasn't as long as the loud and vocal pro-delivery faction wanted to make us believe.

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Beggars can't be choosers, right? I mean, yeah, this is all quite suboptimal, but since you are getting the stuff for free the lever for demanding you should receive the delivery via express mail is rather short.

Thanks for the kind words about beggars. it's so nice to feel like a beggar in a destroyed country under rocket attacks, and you reminded me of this in such a timely manner.

I can say on behalf of the Ukrainians here we dream that you stop this whole farce called support for Ukraine. At least then we would clearly understand what we can count on in the fight against Russia. All your support is nothing more than a mockery.

And one last thing for you personally buddy - ИДИ НА ХУЙ

[_Morpheus_]

16 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Beggars can't be choosers, right? I mean, yeah, this is all quite suboptimal, but since you are getting the stuff for free the lever for demanding you should receive the delivery via express mail is rather short.

Anyway, looks like Pistorius was right after all and the list of countries wanting to deliver tanks wasn't as long as the loud and vocal pro-delivery faction wanted to make us believe.

I love this kind of talks. Germans are the best in talking about human rights/freedoms/etc but at the same time 'nothing personal - just a business'.  
Because `Should there be a military attack on Germany, very few German citizens would be prepared to defend their country with weapon in hand, said a new survey.`
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/open-mind/umfrage-zeigt-deutsche-nicht-kriegsbereit-jeder-vierte-wuerde-land-verlassen-li.316316

Nobody actually care at all. 

[Bulletpoint]

26 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Anyway, looks like Pistorius was right after all and the list of countries wanting to deliver tanks wasn't as long as the loud and vocal pro-delivery faction wanted to make us believe.

I'm getting the feeling that as long as Germany was blocking deliveries, it was a political free lunch for various countries to declare that they'd love to send a lot of tanks, if only old grumpy Germany wouldn't be so stubborn. Now that Germany allows it, those countries are free to deliver, and then suddenly there are many concerns...

[Bulletpoint]

30 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

I love this kind of talks. Germans are the best in talking about human rights/freedoms/etc but at the same time 'nothing personal - just a business'.  
Because `Should there be a military attack on Germany, very few German citizens would be prepared to defend their country with weapon in hand, said a new survey.`
https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/open-mind/umfrage-zeigt-deutsche-nicht-kriegsbereit-jeder-vierte-wuerde-land-verlassen-li.316316

Nobody actually care at all.