How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Ales Dvorak]

35 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Share with us the works of communist authors useful to society, and also indicate what, from your point of view, is useful in them?

First, we have socialism not communism. Tito, Edvard Kardelj were communists, Tito president, Kardelj, father of self management system ( definitely useful for society that time ) Since YU was mix of several nations and religions, communists   were focused more on building common culture.

 

But if you want to see communism in all it's glory, than you have to look at Philharmonic Orchestra.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Ales Dvorak

[Letter from Prague]

36 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Churchill speaking in the direction of a bugging device.

"Russians are not human at all, on the scale in nature they rank lower than the Orang Hutan."

 

Churchill was for sure a racist POS (see his treatment of Indians and six million other things) but then, if I knew someone was bugging me, I would probably talk smack about them on purpose too.

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Seems that ISW is of the same opinion that many of us have here... Ukraine's stand at Bakhmut, as costly as it is, serves a sound military purpose of exhausting Russia resources ahead of the next campaign season.  ISW, however, doesn't seem to be as concerned as US military leaders that Ukraine will not have enough force left over to pursue offensive activities this Spring.  The US concern is part of private conversations with Ukraine that stress that at some point the West is simply going to run out of things to give Ukraine, so they need to take that into consideration

This is because we in the west are still thinking manoeuvre warfare while Ukraine is literally inventing corrosive warfare doctrine as they go.  As to “the west running out”, if this happens it is entirely self-inflicted.  We have not mobilized one wit since this war started.  We shifted existing assets, we have reinforced and expanded existing contracts, industry is putting on a few extra shifts on existing military industrial bases.  We may run out of our comfort zone but as to exhausting the military industrial capacity of the west, we are not even scratching the surface.  As soon as we see car manufacturers in Detroit re-tooling for IFVs, toy companies shift to UAS, big pharma shift to explosives and ammunition then we are running out.

And we are back to sacrifice.  What are we actually willing to give up to win this thing?

[Zeleban]

36 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

First, we have socialism not communism. Tito, Edvard Kardelj were communists, Tito president, Kardelj, father of self management system ( definitely useful for society that time ) Since YU was mix of several nations and religions, communists   were focused more on building common culture.

 

But if you want to see communism in all it's glory, than you have to look at Philharmonic Orchestra.

What kind of orchestra? "Khmer Rouge" or "Gulag Guys"? My grandma saw one of them live and said they didn't sound very good.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Zeleban

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Butschi said:

Which is paid for by... the currently working generation.

And that is a fallacy, I think. There is actually nothing to back it up apart from the fact that in the past it worked like this. But seriously, what kind of jobs would that be that can't be done by an AI or an AI controlled robot better and cheaper?

Honestly, I very much hope that healthcare will be done by AIs in the future. I have seen so many instances of doctors having no clue and instead of looking into a database it even a book for that matter just gave a wrong diagnosis or just none at all and sent the patient on to the next doctor. I seriously fail to see how an AI could do worse.

 

 By industrializing the mistake?

You can sue or physically arrest a doctor, or take away their licence. A true AI (not today's semi smart algorithms dressed up as "AI") will represent too massive a financial &  political investment and be too complex a system of systems to remove it from the healthcare sector.  So you can only hope that the base design follows sound ethical and medical principles. 

I shudder to think what a Chinese Gov,  or gawd,  Russian/ Saudi Arabian healthcare AI would be like... 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Kinophile

[Ales Dvorak]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

What kind of orchestra? "Khmer Rouge" or "Gulag Guys"? 

No, just the orchestra.... the musicians.

[Lethaface]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This is because we in the west are still thinking manoeuvre warfare while Ukraine is literally inventing corrosive warfare doctrine as they go.  As to “the west running out”, if this happens it is entirely self-inflicted.  We have not mobilized one wit since this war started.  We shifted existing assets, we have reinforced and expanded existing contracts, industry is putting on a few extra shifts on existing military industrial bases.  We may run out of our comfort zone but as to exhausting the military industrial capacity of the west, we are not even scratching the surface.  As soon as we see car manufacturers in Detroit re-tooling for IFVs, toy companies shift to UAS, big pharma shift to explosives and ammunition then we are running out.

And we are back to sacrifice.  What are we actually willing to give up to win this thing?

If you look at it from a realist/realpolitik pov, probably not 'very much'. At the same time, more than we've 'sacrificed' for other crisis's since the last ~40-50 years?

Unless we actually join the war that isn't going to change imo. What would the average western consumer think of medicine/car/toy shortages because of the war in Ukraine?

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

When was the last time you actually read any of those?

I mean they do represent russian culture well - barbaric, backwards, inhumane, racist and hateful - but they do not describe those things as something bad, but instead highly promote them. So I'm not exactly sure if this "contribution" should even be considered significant in any other way but to understand why russians are so completely devoid of any kind of empathy in no small part due to various Pushkins and Chekhovs influencing them since the school chair.

Well, there goes pretty much every book in 18th and 19th century literature in every tradition folks...

[The_Capt]

34 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

If you look at it from a realist/realpolitik pov, probably not 'very much'. At the same time, more than we've 'sacrificed' for other crisis's since the last ~40-50 years?

Unless we actually join the war that isn't going to change imo. What would the average western consumer think of medicine/car/toy shortages because of the war in Ukraine?

 

Not even close.  We have lost no lives, at least not government sanctioned (volunteers are a different story).  The US alone spent over $2T in Afghanistan.  And apparently nearly $6.4T on the whole MENA problem set since 9/11: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/us-spent-6point4-trillion-on-middle-east-wars-since-2001-study.html

Now the pace of the contributions in Ukraine has been pretty fast but it still is nowhere near the pace and scale of spending of the Gulf War:

https://www.history.navy.mil/research/library/online-reading-room/title-list-alphabetically/c/costs-major-us-wars.html

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040

We have joined this war, there is blood on our hands and we are in it to defeat another nation state.  There is a lot of nervous twitter going around on this war, and frankly a lot of it is not really based on realistic factors (eg the bottomless Russian pit of manpower).  But the failure of western perceptions to understand this war for what it is, and to be ready to make sacrifices to reinforce and sustain the framework that protects our way of life - as messed up and upside down as it is at times - is the one thing that does keep me up at night.  

The political unity being displayed is deeply heartening and I think we definitely have pulled it together; however, we have not articulated the likely real costs and what it is worth to us very well.  I have no doubt the grown ups up top understand all of this clearly (fingers crossed), but we live in democracies, so Johnny Lunchbox and the goof down the street with the “F#ck Joe Biden” flag need to get it too.  Or at least enough of us, and that is the part that does make me a little nervous.

Edited February 15, 2023 by The_Capt

[Bearstronaut]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The political unity being displayed is deeply heartening and I think we definitely have pulled it together; however, we have not articulated the likely real costs and what it is worth to us very well.  I have no doubt the grown ups up top understand all of this clearly (fingers crossed), but we live in democracies, so Johnny Lunchbox and the goof down the street with the “F#ck Joe Biden” flag need to get it too.  Or at least enough of us, and that is the part that does make me a little nervous.

The goof down the street with the "Lets Go Brandon" bumper sticker on his car who posts stupid memes on Facebook negatively comparing the men who landed on Omaha Beach with Gen Z will be the first one to complain when asked to make the barest minimum of sacrifice.  

[billbindc]

38 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Not even close.  We have lost no lives, at least not government sanctioned (volunteers are a different story).  The US alone spent over $2T in Afghanistan.  And apparently nearly $6.4T on the whole MENA problem set since 9/11: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/us-spent-6point4-trillion-on-middle-east-wars-since-2001-study.html

Now the pace of the contributions in Ukraine has been pretty fast but it still is nowhere near the pace and scale of spending of the Gulf War:

https://www.history.navy.mil/research/library/online-reading-room/title-list-alphabetically/c/costs-major-us-wars.html

We have joined this war, there is blood on our hands and we are in it to defeat another nation state.  There is a lot of nervous twitter going around on this war, and frankly a lot of it is not really based on realistic factors (eg the bottomless Russian pit of manpower).  But the failure of western perceptions to understand this war for what it is, and to be ready to make sacrifices to reinforce and sustain the framework that protects our way of life - as messed up and upside down as it is at times - is the one thing that does keep me up at night.  

The political unity being displayed is deeply heartening and I think we definitely have pulled it together; however, we have not articulated the likely real costs and what it is worth to us very well.  I have no doubt the grown ups up top understand all of this clearly (fingers crossed), but we live in democracies, so Johnny Lunchbox and the goof down the street with the “F#ck Joe Biden” flag need to get it too.  Or at least enough of us, and that is the part that does make me a little nervous.

The essential problem with American support is that inevitably everything gets jammed into a partisan frame. What American interests were clear to average Republicans a year ago start to get muddied as the RW media machine starts to work on the issue...not because there is any real dispute but because dispute is where they make their money. Meanwhile elite Republicans (said without any snark) generally do understand the stakes and support the effort. Mitch McConnell's tie at the SOTU wasn't an accidental choice.

We will be good to go until the 2024 election and the war will be done if either a Democrat or a Republican committed to American national security wins.

 https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/01/31/as-russian-invasion-nears-one-year-mark-partisans-grow-further-apart-on-u-s-support-for-ukraine/

Edited February 15, 2023 by billbindc

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, mosuri said:

Well, sounds like you had a discussion with an ignoramus TBH.

Mendeleev? Pavlov? Sakharov? Tolstoy? Tarkovsky? Tchaikovsky? Whether Russia has pulled its full weight or not is another thing but there's certainly a bit more than zero cultural achievement stemming from there.

The discussion was more about more recent times.  The Russians also made advances in space and nuclear engineering that were, at the time, ground breaking.  But after that?  Pretty much misery became their sole contribution to the world, yet he was saying that Russia should be respected as if it were otherwise.

9 hours ago, mosuri said:

And even with that said, I do think the country needs a lesson beat into it.

With a big stick, unfortunately.

Steve

[Lethaface]

49 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Not even close.  We have lost no lives, at least not government sanctioned (volunteers are a different story).  The US alone spent over $2T in Afghanistan.  And apparently nearly $6.4T on the whole MENA problem set since 9/11: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/us-spent-6point4-trillion-on-middle-east-wars-since-2001-study.html

Now the pace of the contributions in Ukraine has been pretty fast but it still is nowhere near the pace and scale of spending of the Gulf War:

https://www.history.navy.mil/research/library/online-reading-room/title-list-alphabetically/c/costs-major-us-wars.html

We have joined this war, there is blood on our hands and we are in it to defeat another nation state.  There is a lot of nervous twitter going around on this war, and frankly a lot of it is not really based on realistic factors (eg the bottomless Russian pit of manpower).  But the failure of western perceptions to understand this war for what it is, and to be ready to make sacrifices to reinforce and sustain the framework that protects our way of life - as messed up and upside down as it is at times - is the one thing that does keep me up at night.  

The political unity being displayed is deeply heartening and I think we definitely have pulled it together; however, we have not articulated the likely real costs and what it is worth to us very well.  I have no doubt the grown ups up top understand all of this clearly (fingers crossed), but we live in democracies, so Johnny Lunchbox and the goof down the street with the “F#ck Joe Biden” flag need to get it too.  Or at least enough of us, and that is the part that does make me a little nervous.

Adding several trillions of dollars to the national debt (of which many is spend domestically) isn't the same as a sacrifice that the average 'consumer' does feel in his wallet / life. The USA national debt is one of the monetary wold wonders.

But you're correct with regards to the financial aspect, especially if you look at it from USA pov.

However if I look around here in Europe or more specific NL, there is plenty of people who have a different outlook on the war. They don't see this as their war, even though they might agree that Russia isn't doing nice things.
Most people probably don't have a good grasp/overview of the whole conflict anyway.

They have seen the cost of energy bill skyrocket. They see the inflation. They see the media / (populist) politicians which are laying the blame for that because 'we' need to get involved into NATO/USA adventures and the sanctions.
They were probably also not enthusiast about Iraq or Afghanistan (or couldn't care less about m), but those wars didn't affect their daily lives. There is also 'whataboutism', there are other wars or countries who don't care much about UN resolutions but they get a free pass. All in all I don't think they are prepared to go on a wartime footing economically, even for 25%. 
That said, there is also plenty of people supporting helping Ukraine with everything imaginable. AFAIK the majority supports Ukraine but I wonder what that number would be like if everyone has to chime in with EUR 500,- from their salaries each month.

Anyway, that was what I meant with 'sacrifice' being larger than any other crisis the last 50 years. And we just had the Covid pandemic which was already scary for many people. They want to get back to 'normal' like you or others said here. Even though normal might not return for a while, 'ignorance is bliss' is what they say right? ;-).

There's certainly room for politicians to 'sell' our participation in this war better. But imo trust in politics and institutions is on a low already without this war. How successful would that be?

On the other hand I think much of the governments do understand the reality of the situation. But they still need to consider votes (unfortunately I think at times lol) so there's that. Plus Ukraine isn't the only interest.
I usually keep this thought to myself, but: if 'the West' really wanted to end this war as quickly as possible, they could have done (much) more (much) earlier. Every country included.
Could it be there are interests supporting a less quick end of the war, with Ukraine winning but not spectacularly?

Edited February 15, 2023 by Lethaface

[FancyCat]

10 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Could it be there are interests supporting a less quick end of the war, with Ukraine winning but not spectacularly?

We do need to worry about escalation risks from Russia, feigned or real. If Russia did have Crimea as a red line, it would be best for the West to hit that red line as slow as possible, to avoid having to pull support quicker and with more time to maintain support. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Well, now cheating in Ukrainian Golf is a thing:

 

The munition was being dangled on a string?  Interesting.  I wonder how they detonated it.

Steve

[danfrodo]

Great discussion, y'all.  I ran out of likes whilst so many were deserving of one.

US spends ~$700B a year on military.  And as some astute person recently stated, we've spent $50B on UKR.  Comparing that to the over $2T costs of Iraq & Afghanistan, how is the cost of UKR even an issue??

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Adding several trillions of dollars to the national debt (of which many is spend domestically) isn't the same as a sacrifice that the average 'consumer' does feel in his wallet / life. The USA national debt is one of the monetary wold wonders.

But you're correct with regards to the financial aspect, especially if you look at it from USA pov.

However if I look around here in Europe or more specific NL, there is plenty of people who have a different outlook on the war. They don't see this as their war, even though they might agree that Russia isn't doing nice things.
Most people probably don't have a good grasp/overview of the whole conflict anyway.

They have seen the cost of energy bill skyrocket. They see the inflation. They see the media / (populist) politicians which are laying the blame for that because 'we' need to get involved into NATO/USA adventures and the sanctions.
They were probably also not enthusiast about Iraq or Afghanistan (or couldn't care less about m), but those wars didn't affect their daily lives. There is also 'whataboutism', there are other wars or countries who don't care much about UN resolutions but they get a free pass. All in all I don't think they are prepared to go on a wartime footing economically, even for 25%. 
That said, there is also plenty of people supporting helping Ukraine with everything imaginable. AFAIK the majority supports Ukraine but I wonder what that number would be like if everyone has to chime in with EUR 500,- from their salaries each month.

Anyway, that was what I meant with 'sacrifice' being larger than any other crisis the last 50 years. And we just had the Covid pandemic which was already scary for many people. They want to get back to 'normal' like you or others said here. Even though normal might not return for a while, 'ignorance is bliss' is what they say right? ;-).

There's certainly room for politicians to 'sell' our participation in this war better. But imo trust in politics and institutions is on a low already without this war. How successful would that be?

On the other hand I think much of the governments do understand the reality of the situation. But they still need to consider votes (unfortunately I think at times lol) so there's that. Plus Ukraine isn't the only interest.
I usually keep this thought to myself, but: if 'the West' really wanted to end this war as quickly as possible, they could have done (much) more (much) earlier. Every country included.
Could it be there are interests supporting a less quick end of the war, with Ukraine winning but not spectacularly?

Ya and this is why I often wonder if the entire Human Experiment is a good idea.  We were built to function in social groups of about 50 or less, with an overall population of less than a million globally.  Our lifespans are too short, and cognitive horizons too narrow for the massive social undertakings we are in.

During COVID we could not get people to "sacrifice" in wearing face masks. Asking the average individual to draw a string from "why is my light bill so high...now I can't buy another pair of shoes to round out my collection and my Sik Sok channel will die!" to "the entire western order that allows for massive domestic debt is threatened" is likely asking too much.

You hit on another point at the back end - offramps.  We have talked about a "soft landing" for Russia or even an offramp strategy for Putin, but I honestly get the sense that we are in "all in" territory.  We were not in the first six months of this war, but far too much blood has been spilled.  War being political is only ever half the answer, it is also deeply personal.  History is full of wars that went on long past the point of political rational.  Clausewitz should have said "war should be politics by other means" because more often than not it gets hijacked.  And when it does, we historically go to very dark places (e.g. Crusades, Thirty Years War).  I suspect this war has taken on a darker tone where saner heads will not prevail - another thing the west needs to wrap its head around.  This is a war of the "old ways" and dark angry red gods rule these lands.

[Battlefront.com]

42 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

The goof down the street with the "Lets Go Brandon" bumper sticker on his car who posts stupid memes on Facebook negatively comparing the men who landed on Omaha Beach with Gen Z will be the first one to complain when asked to make the barest minimum of sacrifice.  

Yup.  I've never fully understood the US' tendency towards isolationism in the face of a large scale, major world threat as happened in both WW1 and WW2.  I now "get it" much better.  It boils down to some people, quite a few in fact, that actively refuse or are unable to engage in understanding the complexity of the world around them.  Instead we get false solutions to real problems, such as "my gas costs more, Russia has oil, we're supporting Ukraine that doesn't, therefore we should support Russia so I can have cheaper gas".

Trying to explain the complex nature of supply and demand doesn't work.  Eyes glaze over and talking points put into their heads by others take over.  To put it bluntly, simple people want simple answers and simple solutions.

Steve

[Jiggathebauce]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Share with us the works of communist authors useful to society, and also indicate what, from your point of view, is useful in them?

Much from Marx &  Engels and Lenin are still valid. Gramsci, Frankfurt school, Zizek, all have made good contributions to philosophy, sociology and political economy. Dialectical materialism is a useful framework. Anarchist contributions towards anti authoritarian and horizontal frameworks of living and organizing are valuable too, offering alternatives to systems and ethics based on exploitation, chauvinism and profit over all else. 

Socialist authors to this day are still critiquing current affairs and dominant ideologies in a way that profit centered, corporate owned media cannot DARE to do(for obvious reasons). 

The sheer hostility towards their work by people who haven't read them, and the way they are all strawmanned by oligarch funded sock puppets(when not outright banned or kept out of circulation) is quite telling.

Bosses don't tend to like it when people ask for more, and question the power relations and double standards.  Cultural chauvinists and dogmatic religious leaders don't like when their mythological grand narratives have holes poked in them. And people who claim to oppose tyranny and support freedom want to suppress the ideas and books and the people they disagree with.

[Kinophile]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  I've never fully understood the US' tendency towards isolationism in the face of a large scale, major world threat as happened in both WW1 and WW2.  I now "get it" much better.  It boils down to some people, quite a few in fact, that actively refuse or are unable to engage in understanding the complexity of the world around them.  Instead we get false solutions to real problems, such as "my gas costs more, Russia has oil, we're supporting Ukraine that doesn't, therefore we should support Russia so I can have cheaper gas".

Trying to explain the complex nature of supply and demand doesn't work.  Eyes glaze over and talking points put into their heads by others take over.  To put it bluntly, simple people want simple answers and simple solutions.

Steve

Selfish Stupidity gets you pretty far,  as an occam's razor approach.... 

[poesel]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

 We have not mobilized one wit since this war started.  We shifted existing assets, we have reinforced and expanded existing contracts, industry is putting on a few extra shifts on existing military industrial bases.  We may run out of our comfort zone but as to exhausting the military industrial capacity of the west, we are not even scratching the surface. 

That got me thinking a bit, and I like to get a better perspective by having something I can compare it to.

Let's take Volkswagen in Wolfsburg. That factory churns out 3500 cars per day. Going by weight, it is about 40 cars per Leo2. That would be 900 tanks... ah, no. A bit too unrealistic.
Let's use value. A VW costs about 25k€ on average, a fully equipped Leo about 7m€. Both overpriced, so multiply and divide, you get to about 12 tanks - per day.

So one factory of one (not small) company in one (not small) country could produce 350 in one month or 4200 a year. IIRC the Russians supposedly had 12,000 tanks in storage when this started. That's the result of 40 years of Soviet production - or 3 years in Wolfsburg...

That is what is possible if the West would _REALLY_ go nuts with military production.

 

Don't bother correcting my numbers. I'm pretty well aware that they cannot make tanks in Wolfsburg. This example is just for scale.

[Billy Ringo]

Is my link not working?  Seems it took me to the debate on forms of economic and governmental rule instead of How Hot is Ukraine Going to Get????  Is it possible that this divergence in discussion is intentional?  (Yes, I'm paranoid---but in my job I'm paid to be paranoid.)

Anyways, found the following quote interesting as to why Ukraine continues to battle for Bakhmut:

“We must understand the significance of these battles,” Mr. Zelensky said. “That is where the unprecedented destruction of Russian potential is taking place now.” 

 

[chrisl]

7 minutes ago, poesel said:

That got me thinking a bit, and I like to get a better perspective by having something I can compare it to.

Let's take Volkswagen in Wolfsburg. That factory churns out 3500 cars per day. Going by weight, it is about 40 cars per Leo2. That would be 900 tanks... ah, no. A bit too unrealistic.
Let's use value. A VW costs about 25k€ on average, a fully equipped Leo about 7m€. Both overpriced, so multiply and divide, you get to about 12 tanks - per day.

So one factory of one (not small) company in one (not small) country could produce 350 in one month or 4200 a year. IIRC the Russians supposedly had 12,000 tanks in storage when this started. That's the result of 40 years of Soviet production - or 3 years in Wolfsburg...

That is what is possible if the West would _REALLY_ go nuts with military production.

 

Don't bother correcting my numbers. I'm pretty well aware that they cannot make tanks in Wolfsburg. This example is just for scale.

You have a decimal point problem in the first estimate- it should be 90 per day by weight.  Which is not out of whack with reality.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

We have joined this war, there is blood on our hands and we are in it to defeat another nation state.  There is a lot of nervous twitter going around on this war, and frankly a lot of it is not really based on realistic factors (eg the bottomless Russian pit of manpower).  But the failure of western perceptions to understand this war for what it is, and to be ready to make sacrifices to reinforce and sustain the framework that protects our way of life - as messed up and upside down as it is at times - is the one thing that does keep me up at night.  

Unfortunately, it is very difficult to get a population to understand a threat that isn't perceivable right in front of their faces.  Pearl Harbor is often cited as the worst mistake any nation has ever made in any war since war was invented (OK, maybe not quite that bad!) because the US was still very reluctant to go to war.  The second biggest hyperbolic mistake in all of history since cave people time was Hitler declaring war on the US.  In both cases the US population had that in-their-face choice to make and it did not hesitate or flinch despite YEARS of vocal opposition to war with either Japan or Germany.

Now compare this with the rising sea levels and the trillions of Dollars worth of infrastructure on the US coasts that will go bye-bye this century, slowly and with futile attempts to rebuild after disasters.  Compare it to the drought in the western states where California refuses to admit its economy is no longer sustainable and the rest of the country that doesn't understand it is about to lose a big chunk of its winter food supply.

It's unfortunate, but that's the way us Humans are put together.  We are perpetual procrastinators who value the short term over the long term.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

The political unity being displayed is deeply heartening and I think we definitely have pulled it together; however, we have not articulated the likely real costs and what it is worth to us very well.  I have no doubt the grown ups up top understand all of this clearly (fingers crossed), but we live in democracies, so Johnny Lunchbox and the goof down the street with the “F#ck Joe Biden” flag need to get it too.  Or at least enough of us, and that is the part that does make me a little nervous.

I've seen countless examples of the futility of trying to explain things to people like you just described.  No matter how sensitively you try to explain something they don't understand, they get angry and start throwing hatred back at whomever is trying. 

Locally I've seen this countless times.  Someone will stand up in a municipal meeting to complain about "high taxes" and the condition of our roads.  "I pay a lot of money so why are the roads so crappy?"  The answer is "because the real cost of fixing the roads to your standard is 3x higher than what you pay in taxes, yet you've said you don't want your taxes to be higher so we make do with what you have said you want to spend".  Sometimes the person sits down, sometimes they say "well, then you should cut something else so we can put more into the roads and not raise taxes".  And just like the national debates, they can't articulate any place they would be willing to do with less of.  So the town struggles on with people's conflicting priorities as best it can.

Mind you, this is not just a right (i.e. lower taxes, less government) leaning mindset.  The last person I saw do this (just a few nights ago, in fact) previously stood up in a meeting and called Trump a Fascist.  So I'm pretty sure she's not right leaning   Isolationism is similarly not just one side or another challenge.

Steve