How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

I wanted to post some witty comment here, but I'm out of words.

Це ж було вже.

A joke repeated twice is twice as funny

[poesel]

[Boche]

On 2/12/2023 at 9:46 AM, Fernando said:

The Spanish defense minister said yesterday that we have attending Ukrainian soldiers with terrible wounds and amputations. There is a large military Hospital (Hospital Central de la Defensa Gómez Ulla) in Madrid. No info about where the wounded are being attended, but I guess they are in the Gómez Ulla hospital. It has the most advanced medical technology, so is able to attend almost anything (including Ebola et al.).

Edit: There are 4 wounded in the Gómez Ulla, and 14 in the military hospital of Zaragoza.

Some also came to visit our base here in Barcelona last month. Dont know if they are been treated here in the city though.

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  HeliosRunner seems of the view that Gerasimov's grand offensive has already shot its bolt, at least at the 'pincers' in the south (Vuhledar) and north (Kreminna).

LITTLE SATURN vs. NORDWIND.

2. But NOEL, usually very rah rah , not so sure.

3. Shift of Russian focus (and seeming commitment of VDV) further up the line around Svatove could support this hypothesis.

4.   And all this science I don't understand
It's just my job five days a week.....

 

 

[beardiebloke]

I had the pleasure to attend this talk by Prof. Michael Clarke a couple of weeks ago.

He's an ex-RUSI Director General and active academic.  No breaking news here but a good summary including some interesting historical background and global context. 

The video didn't include the Q&A afterwards which went a little off the rails with one audience member saying she was scared of getting nuked and that we should have a dialog with Russia .  He responded by acknowledging that it was possible that the fighting stops with some never ending negotiations about Crimea/Donbas but seemed to portray this as a rather bleak future.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

On 2/11/2023 at 6:34 AM, The_Capt said:

No they shredded his logistics system, C4ISR and cause him to implode at an operational level at least twice.

The density you would have to lay AP mines to get the effect you want would likely get more people killed than you would in fact inflict on the enemy.  They did an experiment back when I was at CFSME and laid a standard NATO AP strip in a training minefield.  They then had two entire courses run back and forth a half a dozen times over the minefield man abreast.  It created 2 casualties.  So the density you would have to lay these at would 1) stress the logistical system, 2) expose troops while putting them in place even given RA ISR and 3) not likely work like you want as the first 2-3 guys would get hit and then the rest would just charge over their bodies.

Mines are not some magic sticky carpet we can stick out there like mouse traps.  Just think about a company sized position, so 500m across because this is dense fighting.  So that is 500 sq meters in a single line, so if you want high density you are probably talking 4 mines per square meter, that is one mine in a 1/4 meter box.  That is 2000 AP mines to deny a strip 1 m deep.  Want to make that strip 10ms and we are talking 20000 mines.  100ms, so the stopping power your are looking for, 200000 AP mines....for 500m.  Oh, and then in a month or two you have to counter-attack over the same minefield...whoops.

It would be far better to use area command detonated systems which are already outside the Ottawa Convention. 

Political cost - I have noticed a trend here to "poo-poo" inconvenient political realities on both sides of this war.  Russian supporters or fearers wave away Putin's real political pressures and hazards that limit his actions (e.g. mobilization).  Doing it on behalf of the UA is not any better.  The UA might get away with it, but lets take Canada for a second...peace loving maple syrup slurping socialists that we are.  So we are in a minority government situation right now with the far left NDP actually holding the Liberals in power.  So consider for a moment what they are going to do with the sudden wide employment of AP mines by the UA as we send Ukraine billions of dollars in military aid in a post-pandemic economic crunch....I will let you mull it over.

The moral here, is that within politics risk is not simple nor straight forward - it is also highly connected.  So while you may wish to dismiss the issue, I am pretty sure the Ukrainians have not.  They have not given notice to withdraw from the convention, nor have we seen any evidence of violations...and they are fighting for their lives.

So 1) they will not do what you want, and 2) the risks are very real and frankly not worth it given point #1.  You want to make Russians die in numbers, how about just keep doing what they are doing because it seems to be working.  

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/12/europe/wagner-convicts-eastern-ukraine-pleitgen-intl/index.html

The first steps into the forest were difficult because of all the landmines spread out. Out of 10 guys, seven were killed immediately.... The Ukrainians were firing heavily on us, so even if their wounds were minor, you’ve got to keep going, otherwise you’re the one getting hit by the fire. 

Yeah, this topic again.  Now sure, he doesn't necessarily say mines killed all 7, but still it seems clear mines (ok, maybe claymores, cuz forest) made a serious impression.

Is their use going to get any panties in a bunch in the West?  The CNN folks seem to take it in stride.

[akd]

Operating with only two crew members?

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/12/europe/wagner-convicts-eastern-ukraine-pleitgen-intl/index.html

The first steps into the forest were difficult because of all the landmines spread out. Out of 10 guys, seven were killed immediately.... The Ukrainians were firing heavily on us, so even if their wounds were minor, you’ve got to keep going, otherwise you’re the one getting hit by the fire. 

Yeah, this topic again.  Now sure, he doesn't necessarily say mines killed all 7, but still it seems clear mines (ok, maybe claymores, cuz forest) made a serious impression.

Is their use going to get any panties in a bunch in the West?  The CNN folks seem to take it in stride.

FFS are we still on about this?  Have you invested in a landmine consortium of some sort?

“There were 90 of us. Sixty died in that first assault, killed by mortar fire. A handful remained wounded,”

So whose landmines were they?  We have heard no reports of Ukrainians employing them so they could have been command detonated claymores.  Or they were attacking through their own minefields.  

So this entire episode reinforces my points.  The minefield cause initial attrition but did not block the assault.  It slowed it down but mortars did the actual killing. Mines may have had a supporting effect but were not decisive.  It is just as likely that these Wagner convicts were forced to assault through one of their own minefields, which is an additional issue with their employment.

But hey you are right no one is marching in the streets in protest so clearly the logical thing to do is start planting millions of AP mines all over the place. I mean if we are throwing out the book because we are done with “precious pearl clutching” let’s bring back napalm and carpet bombing.  Why not supply Ukraine with chemical weapons?  If it going to be a race to the bottom and killing Russians is the only consideration to the exclusion of all else, some bio terrorism in the backfield along with some good old fashion Vlad-style impaling should do the trick.

Ukraine sinking to the same level as Russia is a terrible idea in so many ways.  We are the “good guys” and the second we forget that we may as well toss in the towel.

 

Edited February 13, 2023 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

And to completely derail things further, ladies and gentlemen we are officially in the First World Balloon War.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/china-says-more-than-10-u-s-balloons-flew-in-its-airspace-1.6271186

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/u-s-jets-down-4-objects-in-8-days-unprecedented-in-peacetime-1.6271134

The only answer can be a Bond Villain launching them in both directions at the same time.  We all knew it was only a matter of time.

 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, poesel said:

I think that is a story from his book. We actually saw this in the initiall phase of the war, with SSO/Spetsnaz/various saboteurs riding into cities in cars like would have no tomorrow.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-may-have-lost-an-entire-elite-brigade-near-a-coal-mining-town-in-donbas-ukraine-says/

Nothing new, but some UA officials seem to be convinced almost entire 155 naval bg. is lost.

[kevinkin]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

First World Balloon War.

CNN:
In fact, NORAD commander Gen. Glen VanHerck said recent objects shot down were likely the first “kinetic action” that NORAD or the US Northern Command had taken against an airborne object over US airspace.

Learn something everyday. Meanwhile they had school kids like me hiding under our desks for nothing. And NORAD has had no problem tracking Santa Claus for decades. Someone is playing with our sensibilities and heads got to roll. 

[panzermartin]

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And to completely derail things further, ladies and gentlemen we are officially in the First World Balloon War.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/china-says-more-than-10-u-s-balloons-flew-in-its-airspace-1.6271186

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/u-s-jets-down-4-objects-in-8-days-unprecedented-in-peacetime-1.6271134

The only answer can be a Bond Villain launching them in both directions at the same time.  We all knew it was only a matter of time.

 

Apart from balloons they are also strange exagonical things flying around. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/12/politics/unidentified-object-canada-alaska-military-latest/index.html

What is going on, aliens?  

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, poesel said:

I will do you one better.  No western general has fought this type of war in over 70 years.  There are no generals left alive in the west who were generals in that war.  We are pretty much off the map here, even the Gulf War was nothing like this.  Watching the retried general commentators, the best ones are those who learned the quickest and dropped western doctrine very early on.  We all recall the sweeping red and blue arrows? That was straight out of the western doctrine playbooks but simply did not represent the realities of this war.

And here is the thing, the Russians don’t know what they are doing either.  None of their senior GOs have any experience in this scope and scale of conflict, which actually explains a lot.

[Taranis]

France asks its nationals to leave Belarus “without delay”

Quote

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday asked the French to "leave without delay" Belarus. "In the context of the armed offensive launched by Russia against Ukraine and the closure of Belarusian airspace" , France invites its nationals to leave "by road, via border crossing points with Lithuania , Poland or Latvia” . People who have arrived in Belarus by plane "must apply for an exit visa from the services of the Belarusian Ministry of the Interior" , details the Quai d'Orsay.

Source : Le Monde
 

[Taranis]

Moldovan President worries about possible Russian coup

Quote

 

The Moldovan president, the pro-European Maia Sandu , expressed concern on Monday about a possible Russian coup against her government. "The plan [of Moscow] provides for attacks on state buildings and the taking of hostages by saboteurs with a military past camouflaged in civilian clothes," Ms. Sandu told the press. "The goal is to overthrow the constitutional order and replace the legitimate power of Chisinau with an illegitimate one ," she added.

Mentioned by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, in Brussels last week, this information comes from documents intercepted by the Ukrainian secret services. Moldovan intelligence had confirmed the information without giving details, claiming to have  "identified activities aimed at weakening and destabilizing"  this former Soviet republic of 2.6 million inhabitants located between Romania and Ukraine.

According to Ms. Sandu, the Kremlin is counting on  “the involvement of internal forces”  such as the party of the fugitive pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Sor, but also possible Russian, Belarusian, Serbian and Montenegrin nationals.

In this context, the Moldovan President announced a legislative project aimed at giving prosecutors and intelligence services  “the necessary instruments to effectively combat national security risks” .

Moldova, a candidate since the summer of 2022 for entry into the European Union (EU) , which is going through a serious energy crisis, has been denouncing for months  "the blackmail of Russia" , which has halved its gas deliveries. .

Chisinau must also deal with the threat of Russian soldiers and a large Russian stockpile of ammunition in the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria .

 

Source : Le Monde

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian servicemen take part in a joint military training of the Armed Forces, National Guards, Border Guards and Security Service of Ukraine in the Rivne region near the border with Belarus on February 11, 2023. DIMITAR DILKOFF / AFP"

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

And to completely derail things further, ladies and gentlemen we are officially in the First World Balloon War.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/china-says-more-than-10-u-s-balloons-flew-in-its-airspace-1.6271186

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/u-s-jets-down-4-objects-in-8-days-unprecedented-in-peacetime-1.6271134

The only answer can be a Bond Villain launching them in both directions at the same time.  We all knew it was only a matter of time.

 

Balloons are cheap.  You can find hobbyist instructions all over the interwebs on how to launch high altitude balloons.  I know people who have/would do that sort of thing.  But they aren't going to spend the kind of money China can on a big solar array (if they can even afford a big enough balloon to lift one) so when the battery runs out it turns into a rogue balloon.  When you're up that high and there's nothing around, it's also hard to estimate the scale of things.  So now every random hobbyist (along with the aliens who thought they'd be able to investigate the Earth using balloons) has rogue balloons that a month ago nobody would have noticed and now are being chased down by F-22s.  Pretty soon it will be a thing to put a camera on to record the balloon's last moments for TikTok, and then the FAA will start making people register their balloons like they do drones.

[Lethaface]

18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian PsyOps has started in Russian social media as if large-scale offensive will be launched on 21st of Feb and Russian army received an order to destroy Ukrianian military potential in three days up to 24th Feb. 

On other hand some UKR military and expert twitters consider that culmination of Russian offensive can be launched 22nd or 26-28th Feb and can include huge salvo of missiles. part of them will have a task to destroy as much UKR AD as possible and then Russian aviation will attack largest UKR cities with dumb bombs to cause mass destructions and casualties. This "show" mostly should make impressions on West, that rise many pacifistic voices that "Ukraine never can win Russia, we must stop supply weapon to them and we must finish this war by Korean variant immediately in order to stop suffering of civil population"

If true and Russia hasn't secretly found a way to effectively target Ukraine's AD using missile attacks, I'd suspect a lot of shot down airplanes. Let's hope UKR AD has enough missiles and operational assets for a large saturation strike by missiles and planes. 

[The_Capt]

18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This "show" mostly should make impressions on West, that rise many pacifistic voices that "Ukraine never can win Russia, we must stop supply weapon to them and we must finish this war by Korean variant immediately in order to stop suffering of civil population"

Massive dumb bombing of civilian centres will likely lead to western conventional escalation - so more tanks/IFVs, AD, ATACMS and a rapidly expanded target list…oh and the most dangerous weapon of all, money.

Clearly we don’t get Russia but I would say the cognitive vacuum is mutual.

[billbindc]

24 minutes ago, Taranis said:

France asks its nationals to leave Belarus “without delay”

Source : Le Monde
 

US State Department also just made a similar statement about Russia. Seems pretty clear that there's a broad expectation of accelerated seizures of Western citizens in these countries.  

 

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Massive dumb bombing of civilian centres will likely lead to western conventional escalation - so more tanks/IFVs, AD, ATACMS and a rapidly expanded target list…oh and the most dangerous weapon of all, money.

Clearly we don’t get Russia but I would say the cognitive vacuum is mutual.

Yeah, if Russia launches a huge missile attack for the anniversary of the SMO Imma go out and find the nearest "stop arming Ukraine march" and stomp around urging them to surrender.

Oh wait.  I don't think I've heard of a single march like that in the US, ever.  This invasion has all the usual pacifists out calling their congresspeople demanding that we send tanks and missiles and all sorts of splody stuff to Ukraine.

[Zeleban]

 

[Zeleban]

 

[_Morpheus_]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Operating with only two crew members?

 

Looks like the tank crew decide to go to Ukrainian positions on foot

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So this entire episode reinforces my points.  The minefield cause initial attrition but did not block the assault.  It slowed it down but mortars did the actual killing. Mines may have had a supporting effect but were not decisive.  It is just as likely that these Wagner convicts were forced to assault through one of their own minefields, which is an additional issue with their employment.

There were some first hand reports from the Russian side saying their minefields, like everything else Russians touch, were chaotic and poorly documented.  I remember one guy saying they advanced straight into one of their own minefields because the unit that preceded them left no record of it.

Steve