How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

42 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Economics is not my area of expertise but from what I can gather large economies do not move and shift in timescales that most humans operate within with respect to personal finances.  9 months is a blink of an eye when one is talking about a large economy - the fact that almost every voter in every democracy is completely ignorant of this fact is a significant problem.

Economies do dramatic things like collapsing but the pressures to create these dramas take years to build.  A large economy has a weight and momentum all it own, so major shifts and trends take a long time to manifest.

 A micro-example, I lose my job.  Well ok, I do not lose my house the next day.  In fact if I use my credit cards I can actually look like I have more money than I did when I was working.  I can cut spending, sell off stuff from the basement and even do some light stealing.  I can do odd jobs on the side, some of them less than pleasant.  But to my neighbours the lights stay on and I look like I am doing fine.  6 months to a year later the bottom does fall out and I run out of credit, bank shows up and there is a lot of drama. That is just personal finances. Unlike a country I cannot print money or manipulate interest rates.

So Russia is making bank, but the economic damage being done to it is deep and broad in scope.  For example, given that they just basically stole a lot of western corporate assets, how long will it be before Russia sees western investment?

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/russia/foreign-direct-investment

It is still selling oil and gas but it has severely damaged its major market - Europe.  So what?  Well the Russian strategy was for this war to be over well before now.  Well before economic impacts could fully set in.  Western resolve was supposed to split and fade because who wants to take the economic risks in protest of an already lost Ukraine?  But it did not turn out that way.  Russia made some terrible assumptions and bet the farm (literally) on them.  Someone mentioned that the “West is not the whole world” true, we are about 2/3rds of it when it comes to money:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-94-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/

Russia can and will continue to “make things work” but wars are ridiculously expensive and on one side we have the richest countries in the world all making relatively pretty modest donations while Russia has had to go “all in”.  This is one of the most one-sided proxy wars in history based on economic power. Russia is extremely isolated and vulnerable, getting worse everyday.  So it can prop up the ruble, sell oil and gas on the cheap, cut standards of living and social services - and it will make it work for some time. But the bottom will fall out. This is not sustainable in the long term.  And with every warcrime and day this war drags on Russia is digging a deeper hole for itself.  We are talking years, possibly decades before renormalization with the West is possible.  China and India are not invested in Ukraine, they could care less.  So they are going to take advantage of the situation and milk Russia until it bleeds.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

So before we start freaking out because the ruble is up, let’s just make sure we understand what is really going on with the Russian economy on a macro scale.  And finally, even if Russia doesn’t suffer one bit.  All the sanctions do not work and it can sell oil and gas to the Mole People for diamonds.  Russia has an economy the same size as Canada which is not small but is not large enough to wage a war of this scale in glorious economic isolation indefinitely.  And even if it did, our pockets are so much deeper - the only thing in question is “how deep is our willpower?”

In trillions of rubles, the current state of the Russian Federation budget: 

Edited February 2, 2023 by billbindc

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Can you define or give an example of what you consider a bottom falling out event for Russia? I would like to make sure that we are not confusing an event which will damage the Russian economic growth prospects, competitiveness, standard of living etc. even for a long/indefinite time with an event which will cause Russia to drop out of the current war with the Ukraine . They are not the same.

For example, let's assume that Russia has a choice of A.  continuing war and incurring an economic crisis effectively regressing Russia to the 1980s Soviet Union planned economy and standard of living; or B. suing for peace and coming back to 23 Feb 2022 borders.  I see a distinct possibilty that Putin will take option A. because option B. carries a high risk of him being deposed and/or kliled and he prefers tanking the RUS economy to suicide. Therefore, I do not think that regressing to 1980 economy is the bottom falling out event for Russia. 

And what do you think?

Here's where we go back to the fact that what Putin imagines to be a 'bottom falling out' event and what actually is one may be two different things. Putin would certainly choose option A above because he believes option B probably gets him defenestrated and in any case his sense of the world means backing down is anathema. But option A, in which the financial (and thus elite) supports of the regime wither away would lead to the same place. 

As to the definition, the bottom falling out for Putin's regime is any situation in which it cannot militarily or politically maintain the Crimea and/or the Donbas region. This includes getting cut off by China/India/etc., crude military reverses, a political upheaval that overturns the current ruler and/or an economic collapse that makes sustaining the effort impossible. This is where the fragility of the Russian state comes into play...all Ukraine has to do is keep fighting. Russia must win before any of those conditions...and some I haven't thought of...happen.

 

[Zeleban]

One of the episodes of the confrontation between the tank and anti-tank systems. On December 31, 22, this tank was hit in the rear of the hull and by some miracle not only survived, but also seemed to remain on the move.

[Pete Wenman]

Coopers thoughts on the recent attack on Vuhledar and that it did not go well for the Russians

Quote

Overall: this was no ‘small-’, no ‘probing-’, and no ‘diversionary-’, but a major attack of almost all the forces the 58th CAA was able to scratch together.

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-2-february-2022-vuhledar-8e34b3cc3ae1

P

 

[Pete Wenman]

@Haiduk - can you add anything to this

"Seems the 241st Brigade has recovered Blahodatne, yesterday. 
If so, that would've been the first major - and the first clearly successful - Ukrainian counterattack in the Bakhmut area. And as such: right on time, then after some 6-7 months of endless Russian attacks resulting in advances, no matter how minor, the situation was beginning to get worrisome."

 

 

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

@Haiduk - can you add anything to this

"Seems the 241st Brigade has recovered Blahodatne, yesterday. 
If so, that would've been the first major - and the first clearly successful - Ukrainian counterattack in the Bakhmut area. And as such: right on time, then after some 6-7 months of endless Russian attacks resulting in advances, no matter how minor, the situation was beginning to get worrisome."

 

 

 

[Rokko]

16 hours ago, Kraft said:

The city was pretty much encircled by day 3. So any orders at the time would have been to hold and make the Russians bleed on strongpoints as the real performance of Russias army was still overprojected.

Was thid really the case? I remember there being heavy battles for Volnovakha to the north well into March, which at the time seemed like the anchor of a potential escape corridor, if it could have been held.

I would also think any defensive plans for the Sea of Azov coast pretty much hinged on Kherson not falling in the very first days of the invasion and there may not have been any coherent contingency plan for the defense of Mariupol

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Can you define or give an example of what you consider a bottom falling out event for Russia? I would like to make sure that we are not confusing an event which will damage the Russian economic growth prospects, competitiveness, standard of living etc. even for a long/indefinite time with an event which will cause Russia to drop out of the current war with the Ukraine . They are not the same.

For example, let's assume that Russia has a choice of A.  continuing war and incurring an economic crisis effectively regressing Russia to the 1980s Soviet Union planned economy and standard of living; or B. suing for peace and coming back to 23 Feb 2022 borders.  I see a distinct possibilty that Putin will take option A. because option B. carries a high risk of him being deposed and/or kliled and he prefers tanking the RUS economy to suicide. Therefore, I do not think that regressing to 1980 economy is the bottom falling out event for Russia. 

And what do you think?

Bottom falling out:  Russian economic damage gets to a point that it can no longer effectively prosecute this war.

Now whether that comes from conative erosion at a political/social level or a hard economic collapse is secondary to the main issue - although not irrelevant.   If the Russian people can live with option A, so be it, but at 1980 Soviet levels the current Russian economic framework will not function - it would have to adopt a far more totalitarian economic model than it currently has in place (see North Korea).  Then we get into the question of whether such a system could sustain a war at this level in competition with the western economic system.

If the Russia people truly are sheep and are willing to put up with Putin as their bear-riding-god well then we have to be ready for the long haul in all this.  We are then likely talking Cold War levels of resistance and proxy conflicts, and some of them took decades.  I think the major problem with the west right now is that we are addicted to a status quo that is gone.  We all want this to "just be over" so we can go back to watching whatever crap is on tv, and arguing about ourselves with ourselves over stuff that in the grand scheme of the human enterprise really does not matter. 

That ship has sailed.  We are entering into a era of collision, the Great Peace of the post-Cold War era is over and we might actually have to be ready to make some real sacrifices in order to ensure we stay on top of things.  And if one of those sacrifices is a ten year commitment to a long war in Ukraine to keep whatever Russia turns into inside a box, well ok that is the deal.  I personally do not think that it will come to that but strap yourselves in because the next big conflict is likely just around the corner. 

[kevinkin]

For goodness sake; WTF:

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-expected-channel-stalingrad-victory-111534377.html

"We don't send our tanks to their borders but we have the means to respond, and it won't end with the use of armoured vehicles, everyone must understand that."

A new bust of Stalin was erected in Volgograd on Wednesday along with two others, of Soviet marshals Georgy Zhukov and Alexander Vasilyevsky.

Despite Stalin's record of presiding over a famine that killed millions and political repression that killed hundreds of thousands, Russian politicians and school textbooks have in recent years stressed his role as a successful wartime leader who turned the Soviet Union into a superpower.

You can have zombies without an apocalypse. 

 

[dan/california]

48 minutes ago, Rokko said:

Was thid really the case? I remember there being heavy battles for Volnovakha to the north well into March, which at the time seemed like the anchor of a potential escape corridor, if it could have been held.

I would also think any defensive plans for the Sea of Azov coast pretty much hinged on Kherson not falling in the very first days of the invasion and there may not have been any coherent contingency plan for the defense of Mariupol

I recall reading somewhere that the AFUs pre war planning assumed that Mariupol would be encircled and then fall in a full up Russian invasion. It was just to close to the front and vulnerable on too many axis. Obviously things collapsed  around the pre war Crimean fortifications, and then at Kherson far faster than hoped. By that point, as mentioned above, Kyiv was the sole focus.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

For goodness sake; WTF:

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-expected-channel-stalingrad-victory-111534377.html

"We don't send our tanks to their borders but we have the means to respond, and it won't end with the use of armoured vehicles, everyone must understand that."

A new bust of Stalin was erected in Volgograd on Wednesday along with two others, of Soviet marshals Georgy Zhukov and Alexander Vasilyevsky.

Despite Stalin's record of presiding over a famine that killed millions and political repression that killed hundreds of thousands, Russian politicians and school textbooks have in recent years stressed his role as a successful wartime leader who turned the Soviet Union into a superpower.

You can have zombies without an apocalypse. 

 

So maybe the whole "German reluctance to send in big loud stuff" had a bit more nuances than many thought?  I mean the answer from the west is "whatever" but this nonsense might actually sell to the Russian public.

[panzermartin]

15 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

For goodness sake; WTF:

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-expected-channel-stalingrad-victory-111534377.html

"We don't send our tanks to their borders but we have the means to respond, and it won't end with the use of armoured vehicles, everyone must understand that."

A new bust of Stalin was erected in Volgograd on Wednesday along with two others, of Soviet marshals Georgy Zhukov and Alexander Vasilyevsky.

Despite Stalin's record of presiding over a famine that killed millions and political repression that killed hundreds of thousands, Russian politicians and school textbooks have in recent years stressed his role as a successful wartime leader who turned the Soviet Union into a superpower.

You can have zombies without an apocalypse. 

 

Not surprising. Generations of russians were raised with the wounds of the great patriotic war, inflicted from enemies coming from their western borders. 27 million dead, every family had lost one or more members. Putin will play this card again and again and people will follow. Leopards are great but they trigger more and more population into a "new patriotic war" mentality and this is against Europe in the long term. 

[billbindc]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I personally do not think that it will come to that but strap yourselves in because the next big conflict is likely just around the corner. 

That is certainly the vibe. The US, Philippines, Japan, etc are moving as if a war for Taiwan is just around the corner. 

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

That is certainly the vibe. The US, Philippines, Japan, etc are moving as if a war for Taiwan is just around the corner. 

Tell me about it.  They are scrambling to try to look relevant to this problem set - along with some others - in my neck of the woods as well.

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Tell me about it.  They are scrambling to try to look relevant to this problem set - along with some others - in my neck of the woods as well.

I remain pretty convinced that nothing is actually imminent and eventually something like a blockade is a far more likely outcome than an abrupt invasion across the strait. I mean seriously...who thinks those chip factories won't be columns of smoke almost immediately in the latter case?

[mosuri]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 

It is still selling oil and gas but it has severely damaged its major market - Europe.

And sanctions like the price cap on oil do actually work. It needs to be noted that while e.g. India is opportunistically buying oil from Russia, they are not paying a premium price. One reason why the price cap works is that ships that are owned or insured by Western nations do not carry oil that is sold above the price cap, and Russia or third nations simply don't have the capacity.

I am not an economist either, and this guy's videos have clickbaity titles, but the message itself seems solid enough:

 

[Zeleban]

45 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Not surprising. Generations of russians were raised with the wounds of the great patriotic war, inflicted from enemies coming from their western borders. 27 million dead, every family had lost one or more members. Putin will play this card again and again and people will follow. Leopards are great but they trigger more and more population into a "new patriotic war" mentality and this is against Europe in the long term. 

It was not the deliveries of leopards that caused Russia to invade Ukraine, and thousands of Russian citizens have no problem killing people whom they consider their brotherly people, who took part in that bloody war shoulder to shoulder with them. If they were really afraid of NATO, their tanks would now be in one of the NATO countries and not in Ukraine.

My distant relatives also died in World War II. My grandmother's older brother died in 1944 in Moldova. Her another brother was hanged by the Nazis for being a partisan. But I would not say that our family was traumatized about this. These events took place over 80 years ago and have long been forgotten. Grandmother also did not feel hatred for the Germans, on the contrary, she recalled how German soldiers shared chocolate with her. In Ukraine, there was no such strong cult of victory that developed in Russia, inspiring people that they supposedly should avenge their dead.

This cult is very similar to scams in financial pyramids. People are zombified with loud music and loud slogans, thereby preparing them as victims of fraud

Edited February 2, 2023 by Zeleban

[SteelRain]

German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius visits Panzerbattalion 203 and gets a display of the Leo's capability's . The unit will hand over 14 Leopard 2a6 to Ukraine. In his speech he mentions, that currently not all the necessary tanks to equip 2 battalions have been donated yet. The negotiations on further tanks are ongoing.
Concerning the replacement of the 14 tanks he says that these should be ordered asap and he doesn't care where the money is coming from.

English subtitles are available

 

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Putin is in power largely on a "social contract" with the Russian people and power centers that Russia would not go back to the way it was in the 1990s, not to mention 1980s.  By going with Option A he risks that happening.  If it happens it could be just as deadly for him personally as Option B.

I am not sure if it is the current state of affairs. He did get into power by way of that social contract. However, now he got to the point where he seems to be persisting mainly on the backs of the FSB and Rosgvardia. He certainly has  fully subjugated oligarchs and regional barons/power centres so that he does not need their support anymore, rather the other way round - they are fully dependent on his favour.

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And let's not forget, that regressing to 1980s economy puts the Putin regime in a similar position as the Soviet regime at the time.  And we know how that ended.

Certainly. But Putin will be dead by that time by natural causes anyway. Soviet Union was an oligarchy with a longer time horizon than an elderly dictator.  

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

If the Russia people truly are sheep and are willing to put up with Putin as their bear-riding-god well then we have to be ready for the long haul in all this. 

That is exactly my point. I think therefore the Ukraine war will have to be won on the battlefield and the economic warfare has to be looked at as something which may aid the armies of the Free World, but will not the decisive factor in the enemy's collapse. More of  WW 2 scenario than WW 1.

[dan/california]

49 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I remain pretty convinced that nothing is actually imminent and eventually something like a blockade is a far more likely outcome than an abrupt invasion across the strait. I mean seriously...who thinks those chip factories won't be columns of smoke almost immediately in the latter case?

 

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

That is certainly the vibe. The US, Philippines, Japan, etc are moving as if a war for Taiwan is just around the corner. 

 

56 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Tell me about it.  They are scrambling to try to look relevant to this problem set - along with some others - in my neck of the woods as well.

So Ukraine happened because Putin thought the actual fighting would be short and easy, and that NATO/The West would crumple like a wet dish rag instead of doing anything about it. He was wrong on both counts, but the human and Economic wreckage of his miscalculation is immense. How do we send a signal to Xi he CANNOT misinterpret that all he is getting of a Taiwan adventure is sunken ships, dead soldiers, and the destruction of China's economy. Worrying about "provoking" dictators that have been in the self licking ice cream cone for too long just seems to convince them that we are scared.

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

It was not the deliveries of leopards that caused Russia to invade Ukraine, and thousands of Russian citizens have no problem killing people whom they consider their brotherly people, who took part in that bloody war shoulder to shoulder with them. If they were really afraid of NATO, their tanks would now be in one of the NATO countries and not in Ukraine.

My distant relatives also died in World War II. My grandmother's older brother died in 1944 in Moldova. Her another brother was hanged by the Nazis for being a partisan. But I would not say that our family was traumatized about this. These events took place over 80 years ago and have long been forgotten. Grandmother also did not feel hatred for the Germans, on the contrary, she recalled how German soldiers shared chocolate with her. In Ukraine, there was no such strong cult of victory that developed in Russia, inspiring people that they supposedly should avenge their dead.

This cult is very similar to scams in financial pyramids. People are zombified with loud music and loud slogans, thereby preparing them as victims of fraud

Well it depends. For instance my father never got over his dislike for germans , seeing executions, people dying from hunger , life was very difficult in the big cities. Nothing to eat etc...Even hearing the german language would raise his hair. I could understand but I couldn't carry on the hate which I guess was the healthy thing to do. For sure it has more impact on older generations but we should not underestimate the "collective memory" either. 

[womble]

31 minutes ago, dan/california said:

How do we send a signal to Xi he CANNOT misinterpret that all he is getting of a Taiwan adventure is sunken ships, dead soldiers, and the destruction of China's economy.

We keep supporting Ukraine. A touch of bickering and lack of lock-step won't dilute the message below the level of comprehension.

Xi is not stupid. Taiwan is not worth the cost unless that sort of foreign adventurism is the only thing that they think will save their Chinese Communist Party behinds because everything else has gone to Hell in a handbasket. It's far more useful to him as a tub to thump to maintain the spectre of the threat from outside.

[BornGinger]

It seems the Russian Wagners are trying to convince US veterans to join the "good guys".

If I'm not the first one to mention this you can see it as a reminder in case someone in here has thought about maybe getting convinced enough to sign up for this with the hope to get a medal from Putin and Pregoshin if Death doesn't come for a visit before that

Edited February 2, 2023 by BornGinger

[Zeleban]

13 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Well it depends. For instance my father never got over his dislike for germans , seeing executions, people dying from hunger , life was very difficult in the big cities. Nothing to eat etc...Even hearing the german language would raise his hair. I could understand but I couldn't carry on the hate which I guess was the healthy thing to do. For sure it has more impact on older generations but we should not underestimate the "collective memory" either. 

Perhaps your father did not witness the famine organized by his government, when a person could fall and die of exhaustion right on the street, and parents who went crazy from hunger eat their own children. My great grandmother knew people who engaged in cannibalism in 1932-1933. I think if your father had witnessed this, then the executions organized by the Nazis would not be remembered so well by him.