How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

One thing I don't get is why Israel is let of the hook because 'interests', while other countries who also have 'interests' are bashed upon for doing the same. But I'll leave my opinions about Israel out of this thread.

Israel isn't "let off the hook". The US has a balance of interests in which Israel figures in many important ways. That balance is certainly changing, it will likely change further and there is quite a bit of friction in it these days. 

Aaron David Miller is a very even handed guy if anyone wants to dig into this further. That's it for me on this (off) topic: https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/01/biden-israel-netanyahu-right-coalition-palestinian-authority-blinken-trip/

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by billbindc

[Lethaface]

30 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Israel isn't "let off the hook". The US has a balance of interests in which Israel figures in many important ways. That balance is certainly changing, it will likely change further and there is quite a bit of friction in it these days. 

Aaron David Miller is a very even handed guy if anyone wants to dig into this further. That's it for me on this (off) topic: https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/01/biden-israel-netanyahu-right-coalition-palestinian-authority-blinken-trip/

 

I wasn't specifically referring to US policy. 

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Was withdrawing from Mariupol even an option?

I wasn't paying a great deal of attention at the time (we had our own issues - I was dealing with that daily, and saw and smelt the smoke when the whole thing went tits up) but I gained the impression that Mariupol was cutoff and surrounded pretty quickly. After than it was either "hands up boys, it's over", or try and resist the boa constrictor as long as possible. They chose option 2, and did it well, but there was no Option 3: Run away discretely.

The city was pretty much encircled by day 3. So any orders at the time would have been to hold and make the Russians bleed on strongpoints as the real performance of Russias army was still overprojected.

I also think any attempts at a large pullback through the south would have been a feast for the at the time still operationally significant RU airforce (+indirect) at a moment where the whole front was being formed and daily movements were in kms from the southern axis.

It would have also started the summer "grind" a lot further inwards as Russia really wasted a lot of fighting force both in commitment and KIA smashing through the city turning it into rubble. Those troops werent there to advance elsewhere while fighting and a large portion is now rotting in the ground nearby when at the time, Russia was severely Manpower handycapped and had to throw in sailors, etc.

Also those "thousands" of captured.. watching any footage from the underground bunker or when the prisoners were paraded really dispells that, the UA fighting force wasnt nearly as big as Russia likes to claim.

Edited February 1, 2023 by Kraft

[akd]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

a rather rare type of TOR-M2 equipment in the Arctic version

Excaliburs got it.

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, akd said:

Excaliburs got it.

Somebody wanted to see both halves of that rig BURN...

[panzermartin]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64455123.amp

[dan/california]

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/02/01/why-the-wests-oil-sanctions-on-russia-are-proving-to-be-underwhelming

Te Economist is rather unimpressed with the effectiveness of the oil sanctions. I think they are underrating the marginal cost of the things Russia is doing to get around sanctions, and the willingness oof the Indians and the Chinese to bargain brutally when they are basically your only buyers.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

We are bashing Russia for sending ill prepared troops in human wave style assaults but I haven't seen  mentioning that a lot of UKR troops were lost in encircled traps like in Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Soledar, Bakhmut etc while they could have withdrawn to fight another day with better chances.

There's been some good responses to your post already, but I think it's worth one more

We've seen some raging debates here, and elsewhere, over the years between "Manueverists" and "Attritionists".  The Maneuverists have an attitude that you can always use maneuver to achieve success.  Something gets too tough to handle?  Maneuver around it, pull back, or do something other than stay and fight.  Attritionists trash this argument by saying this only works for the attacker and only if it has multiple physical paths to whatever is trying to be secured.  On the defensive, you can't just pick up and move every time the going gets tough.  If you do that you forfeit the advantages of the defender and open your forces up to being caught on the move and slaughtered.

Therefore, the basic premise of your post is on very unsteady ground.

The second part of your premise is wrong as well, which is that Ukraine has been caught repeatedly in situations where it needlessly sacrificed troops it could have otherwise pulled out.  Mariupol is the only engagement where significant sized Ukrainian forces were surrounded and destroyed.  Every other instance Ukraine has withdrawn in good order when it was ready to or, with only a few small scale exceptions (I'm thinking of Popasna).  No military in the history of warfare has fought, at any scale, perfectly so I don't think it is fair to put to much emphasis on such failures.

Now, what Ukraine has done is what *ANY* military defending their homes should do... fight and fight hard until the situation becomes unfavorable.  Unfortunately in war, "unfavorable" does not necessarily mean losing men and material.

Even Mariupol, for all its horror and loss of Ukrainian military personnel, was a critical element in Russia losing its strategic initiative in the Spring of 2022.  We do not know precise casualty figures, but we know that Russia's forces engaged in the battle were decimated.  We also know that Russia's efforts elsewhere were hampered for nearly THREE MONTHS because Mariupol was like a thorn in its side.

The battles for Sievierodonetsk area, as costly as it was for Ukraine, was a big success for Ukraine's larger war effort.  The DLPR and Russian forces that fought in these battles were laid waste.  The Kharkiv offensive would not have been as successful, or perhaps even possible, without out the sacrifices made by Ukrainian forces fighting there.

To summarize... by all tangible and militarily relevant assessments, I think it's pretty clear that Ukraine fought intelligently and effectively, while Russia did the exact opposite.  Not perfect, but compared to Russia's train wreck performance, pretty close to perfect.

Steve

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, MikeyD said:

Some months back a Ukraine official said combat deaths were running 6.5 to 1 in Ukraine's favor.

One thing, among a host of other things, to consider is the quality of the troops lost. (This is not directed at you Mikey, just using the 6.5 number) Recently, I was figuring one UA troop was worth 5+ RA troops. Compared to the start date last February, what would a graph of troop quality/moral/exhaustion etc.. look like over time? Has the RA improved to a point where one troop equals one troop? No. Is it now worse or better for the RA? Overall, probably worse. Locally, maybe approaching better than last year. Maybe that's the message the BBC article that's been posted is trying to convey via a few observations from UA troops. It's almost a now or never plead for more NATO high tech hardware. Seems that the UA troops don't want any positive trends for the RA to continue.   

Edited February 1, 2023 by kevinkin

[Seminole]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/02/01/why-the-wests-oil-sanctions-on-russia-are-proving-to-be-underwhelming

Te Economist is rather unimpressed with the effectiveness of the oil sanctions. I think they are underrating the marginal cost of the things Russia is doing to get around sanctions, and the willingness oof the Indians and the Chinese to bargain brutally when they are basically your only buyers.

In the game of who wins and who loses, didn’t the Russians increase oil revenue last year?  China and India are making money selling the Russian oil back to the market.   Europe energy prices are much higher and a curb on competitiveness in many industries. The effects on the US aren’t net as bad because we aren’t as significant an energy importer, but higher energy prices don’t help most of American society.  
Over the last 12 months the ruble is stronger than the dollar and the euro.  
The Saudis are talking about trading oil in currencies beyond the USD.

If the U.S. loses the post-Bretton Woods seigniorage it has enjoyed for 60 years the ‘cost’ of this war to the average American gets pretty hard to calculate.  It definitely can’t be measured in Congressional appropriations.  

[fireship4]

In addition to my regular briefings, which include the podcasts In Moscow's Shadows, War on the Rocks, and Geopolitics Decanted, relevant articles from The War Zone, a look through the twitter feeds of Kamil Galeev, @wartranslated, @WarMonitor3 and @DefMon3, and the daily briefing/occasional deeper dive on the War in Ukraine channel (do not start with the Jan 31st edition, the man refuses to clear his throat), I thought I'd promote something I've been more into recently: Vlad Vexler's channel, for it's insight into various Russian topics and their relation to the war.  It has a nice way of linking a previous video at the end of each piece that leads you through his work.  The more casual Vlad Vexler Chat occasionally has a long form Q&A.

Edited February 2, 2023 by fireship4

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Seminole said:

In the game of who wins and who loses, didn’t the Russians increase oil revenue last year?  China and India are making money selling the Russian oil back to the market.   Europe energy prices are much higher and a curb on competitiveness in many industries. The effects on the US aren’t net as bad because we aren’t as significant an energy importer, but higher energy prices don’t help most of American society.  
Over the last 12 months the ruble is stronger than the dollar and the euro.  
The Saudis are talking about trading oil in currencies beyond the USD.

If the U.S. loses the post-Bretton Woods seigniorage it has enjoyed for 60 years the ‘cost’ of this war to the average American gets pretty hard to calculate.  It definitely can’t be measured in Congressional appropriations.  

Where do people get these analysis?

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/currency

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/

I am no economist but there is little good news for Russia on the economic front.  It has done all sorts of twists and machinations to try and keep its head above water.  Stuff like strapping itself to Iranian banks, which is just not a good idea given the instability in that country right now. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/31/world/europe/iran-russia-banks.html

I mean what could possibly go wrong?

I don't think Russia is on the verge of economic collapse, but I do think we can see it from here.  I do not think the data shows that Russia has gone all "haters gonna hate, shake it off" either, as it burns it customer base.

[Seminole]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Where do people get these analysis?

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/currency

You understand that when $1 would buy you 74 rubles last January, but only 69 rubles this January, the ruble has strengthened against the dollar, right?

There was an initial collapse upon the invasion as western firms ‘cashed out’ of Russia, but the market is telling you the Kremlin is running a better budget than 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. 

And that is strengthening against a dollar with the backdrop of the Fed’s rate hikes.  

[Kraft]

8 minutes ago, Seminole said:

You understand that when $1 would buy you 74 rubles last January, but only 69 rubles this January, the ruble has strengthened against the dollar, right?

The Ruble is a terrible measurement for anything.

Its not actively traded, you cant buy it, Russians cant sell it. What determines its value? Its meaningless in anything but propaganda value which is exctracted and maintained by the Russian central bank.

Edited February 2, 2023 by Kraft

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Seminole said:

You understand that when $1 would buy you 74 rubles last January, but only 69 rubles this January, the ruble has strengthened against the dollar, right?

There was an initial collapse upon the invasion as western firms ‘cashed out’ of Russia, but the market is telling you the Kremlin is running a better budget than 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. 

And that is strengthening against a dollar with the backdrop of the Fed’s rate hikes.  

So Perun did a really good video near the start of this thing on how the value of the ruble is more complicated than the simple exchange rate.  Stuff like interest rates and some of the propping Russia did is going to cause much bigger problems down the line. 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/currencies-ruble-vs-dollar-russia-vladimir-putin-western-sanctions-oil-2022-9#:~:text=The ruble has rallied since war in Ukraine began&text=Both those commodities are valued,rate means it's losing money.

 

 

 

[Beleg85]

37 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

In addition to my regular briefings, which include the podcasts In Moscow's Shadows, War on the Rocks, and Geopolitics Decanted, relevant articles from The War Zone, a look through the twitter feeds of Kamil Galeev, @wartranslated, @WarMonitor3 and @DefMon3, and the daily briefing/occasional deeper dive on the War in Ukraine channel (do not start with the Jan 31st edition, the man refuses to clear his throat), I thought I'd promote something I've been more into recently: Vlad Vexler's channel, for it's insight into various Russian topics and their relation to the war.  It has a nice way of linking a previous video at the end of each piece that leads you through his work.  The more casual Vlad Vexler Chat occasionally has a long form Q&A.

Good idea to make such short list. Vlad Vexler is great and really recommended, but in turn I put the cross on War in Ukraine channel long time ago- creator displayed rather limited knowledge of country and its people.

I also wanted to made "black list" of accounts  that are often cited but are not believeable beyond simplly posting videos, misquote sources or have their own political agenda, after which (especially political) quarrells here often erupts. Nexta, Euromaidan.PR, Vyshegrad24, various half-baked Osinters etc.  Perhaps we could do such abbreviated list  of "where to take our info from" for new readers, that could be perhaps sticked or singled out somehow?

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

any of people, who visited Israel told, that enviromnemt of ex-USSR/CIS migrants and their ancestors mostly is pure "vata" and their moods similar to Briton Beach public. Because you can easily get out from USSR/Russia, but looks like it's too hard that USSR/Russia get out from you. Israel will not support Russia directly, but also will not put sanctions. 

Considering stance of Israel, always worth to remember that Russian aliyah is largest in the country:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Jews_in_Israel

They also form backbone of many hard right Israeli parties and movements- are usually more brutal and racist toward local Arabs than second in size Jewish Moroccan emigrees. Hell, several years ago there was a series of reports that Russian recruits were so numerous they even started transplanting diedovshchyna into famously chill-out IDF. Tells you a lot about culture they came from.

So it's pure political economy on behalf of (habitually unstable internally) Israeli government.

Edited February 2, 2023 by Beleg85

[Reclaimer]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So Perun did a really good video near the start of this thing on how the value of the ruble is more complicated than the simple exchange rate.  Stuff like interest rates and some of the propping Russia did is going to cause much bigger problems down the line. 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/currencies-ruble-vs-dollar-russia-vladimir-putin-western-sanctions-oil-2022-9#:~:text=The ruble has rallied since war in Ukraine began&text=Both those commodities are valued,rate means it's losing money.

 

 

 

Perun recently made another really good video on this topic that expands on a bunch of this stuff and is also definitely worth a watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9w17Ne1S0M

[LongLeftFlank]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Good idea to make such short list. Vlad Vexler is great and really recommended, but in turn I put the cross on War in Ukraine channel long time ago- creator displayed rather limited knowledge of country and its people.

I also wanted to made "black list" of accounts  that are often cited but are not believeable beyond simplly posting videos, misquote sources or have their own political agenda, after which (especially political) quarrells here often erupts. Nexta, Euromaidan.PR, Vyshegrad24, various half-baked Osinters etc.  Perhaps we could do such abbreviated list  of "where to take our info from" for new readers, that could be perhaps sticked or singled out somehow?

My own daily Twitter routine, FWIW:

1. Andrew Perpetua, DefMon3 and HeliosRunner are the 3 sources I check first for credible, well-mapped battlefield sitreps.

2. ChrisO, Rob Lee and DanSpiun do great battlefield/troop analysis regularly.

3. NLWartracker and SpecialKhersonCat do good retweets. Dmitri is also a regular stop for translated Strelkov, Arestovich et al.

4. If I want to hear the latest RU copium trends, now and then I look at Zoka300. Chris_759 used to do good geolocations with a pro-Russian slant, but he's shut down now.

[Harmon Rabb]

Putin has paved the way for Ukrainian membership in NATO (Washington Post)

Opinion piece by Boris Johnson. Have not thought about him since he left 10 Downing Street. But his continued enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine, reminds me why Johnson has a street named after him in Ukraine right now.

Edit: Johnson Also gave his take on the war while speaking to the Atlantic Council.

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Harmon Rabb
Added Atlantic Council video.

[Beleg85]

Short but interesting story of Cannuck sniper in Bakhmut. His profession must be deadly in this environment.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-russia-ukraine-war-bakhmut-canadian-sniper/

[Gpig]

16 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Short but interesting story of Cannuck sniper in Bakhmut. His profession must be deadly in this environment.

Behind paywall

[cesmonkey]

3 minutes ago, Gpig said:

Behind paywall

This might be the most you can see for free:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Excuse me if this has been posted already. Intense footage, especially the second video.

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So Perun did a really good video near the start of this thing on how the value of the ruble is more complicated than the simple exchange rate.  Stuff like interest rates and some of the propping Russia did is going to cause much bigger problems down the line. 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/currencies-ruble-vs-dollar-russia-vladimir-putin-western-sanctions-oil-2022-9#:~:text=The ruble has rallied since war in Ukraine began&text=Both those commodities are valued,rate means it's losing money.

 

 

 

This is from 9 months ago.

I'd be interested in an update from him since Russian foreign reserves bottomed in September, and have been growing since.

You can't 'run them out of their foreign reserves' if they're building them.

[paxromana]

6 minutes ago, Seminole said:

You can't 'run them out of their foreign reserves' if they're building them.

It doesn't matter if they can't buy much of anything they really really need with it (not a new wing for Putin's palace, for example) ... they might as well have huge reserves of Chocolate Coins or Monopoly Money.