How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

It already started over here. The chair of the parliamentary defense committee was asked what she thinks about sending fighter jets next, and she said she couldn't quite see this yet. Headline was "Strack-Zimmermann rules out sending fighter jets to Ukraine!!11!1". 

Facts shouldn't stand in a way of a good headline  Luckily the issue of fighters won't rely on Germany much (maybe except giving the green light for reexporting ex-DDR MiGs, but again not crucial).
I just read that the M1s for Ukraine will be financed by another mechanism, not PDA, and will probably be new, arriving only next year. And in the meantime the tank deliveries are to rely on Europe, putting Germany in the center of the effort, at least for the duration of 2023. Let's see how it will go, the hopes are high, so is the potential to improve DE image in this regard, which would be a good thing for everyone involved. 
 

In other news, RU Foreign Ministry got something right, for a change:

 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Huba

[Fernando]

Regarding the letter bombs in Spain, the Spanish police has arrested a 74-year-old retired man from Miranda de Ebro (Burgos). The letter were send by the same person from the same place (Valladolid, about 83 miles from Burgos)

https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-policia-detiene-burgos-hombre-74-anos-presunta-relacion-envio-cartas-incendiarias-20230125103105.html

https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-registran-domicilio-miranda-ebro-detenido-cartas-incendiarias-antes-pasar-disposicion-judicial-20230125111529.html

[Der Zeitgeist]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

But Melnik has already demanded Germany hand over the Tornados that are going to be replaced by F-35s.

https://www.rnd.de/politik/ukraine-krieg-andrij-melnyk-fordert-deutsche-tornado-kampfjets-Y2S3XLFIIFEGVAEANMEKW7VZ5E.html

Exactly. The hustle never stops. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

14 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Exactly. The hustle never stops. 

I would think fighter jets are going to be a way easier thing to get going than mechanized force equipment was. 

Interceptor fighters are just a part of air defense. Just s supplementary capability to the western AA systems being given. And off course AA+Interceptors is more cost efficient than going the same with pure ground based systems.

Only possible escalatory capability would be giving them long range strike capacity. But that can be given with ground based systems as well and I am sure you can jerry-rig JASSM to a MIG.

Best case would be to get same that Finland is going with its air force. It is the other half of air defence with additionally acting as long range strike platform. 

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Interceptor fighters are just a part of air defense. Just s supplementary capability to the western AA systems being given. And off course AA+Interceptors is more cost efficient than going the same with pure ground based systems.

I wonder how will they solve the IFF though - after removing the NATO equipment from both ground-based radars, and I assume from the aircraft, they will be left with what exactly?

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

I wonder how will they solve the IFF though - after removing the NATO equipment from both ground-based radars, and I assume from the aircraft, they will be left with what exactly?

Air space deconfliction existed before IFF was even invented. At least in Finland IFF is just the very last safeguard in a long sequence of procedures and safeguards. Something has already gone horribly wrong if AA operator ever needs to rely on the IFF.

Yes, it is hard and it is almost its whole field of military science. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

I don't want to overdo it with the "Scholzology", but this article makes some good points about German domestic politics and public opinion surrounding the Leopard decision. It should auto-translate well.

 

[Bulletpoint]

I was disappointed that Scholz didn't begin his speech by a karaoke performance of Sabaton - Panzer Battalion.

[Beleg85]

Krasna Hora may be contested but seem to be largely controlled by UA (depending on the map); Russians reportedly crossed Bakhmutka river. Some of their milbloggers caim they captured Garden Center SW of Krasna Hora...

So yes, we are at the point where Mighty Muscovite Army taunt capturing of a business vendor in 300-person village. Still probably infiltration party.

 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Beleg85

[Bil Hardenberger]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Long article from CNN about the US advising Ukraine to give up Bakhmut and focus on bigger actions.  This gets back to something I said pages ago which was I hope Ukraine is holding Bakhmut only to keep Russia distracted, not the other way around.  This could be a smokescreen for bigger things already in motion, or it could be that Ukraine has really been distracted by Russia's offensive there.  Either way, there does seem to be a legitimate message from the West which boils down to "we're giving you lots of expensive things with a wide array of capabilities.  Don't just use them for trench warfare".

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/ukraine-shift-tactics-bakhmut/index.html

Finally had a chance to fully read this article. Sounds a lot like the noise the US was making when they were touting the offensive around Kherson when the real attack was around Kharkiv.
 

Is Russia stupid enough to fall for the same trick twice?

Edited January 25, 2023 by Bil Hardenberger

[Lethaface]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am not a religious man, but if I were this would be my daily prayer right after wishing Putin a quick, but painful, fall out a window.

Seriously, I hope we can start winding down this obsession with the tank saga and get back to talking about the real war.  The German posters here will be thrilled with this request, because it would be great to get past that aspect of it as well.

Steve

Including the imaginary heavy western equipped brigades churned out in weeks (!) that will smash through the Russian lines and drive them in the sea of Azov. I mean I would like to see that, like I'd like to win the lottery. But I don't feed myself with improbable stuff all the time. If anything it sets up unnecessary disappointment and blurs the vision of what is actually going on.

Emotions are a great good but they can cloud ones observation / analysis.

Perhaps the relative lack of new developments the last months fuels these type of social events.

[Lethaface]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Great video from Ukraine's Border Guards showing coordination between a UAV team, command center, and artillery unit. You can see the guys in the command center are able to take the time to strategize what to do and how to do it.  This is much harder to do with a single junior officer or NCO peering over the shoulder of a drone operator and making calls that way.  Mind you, there is a lot of need for that sort of thing, but there are benefits to having a more comprehensive view of the battlefield being used to direct fire.

 

thanks for these type of vids. Having watched a couple over the last weeks I get the impression that these type of command centers are getting more and more common, not only on higher level of operations.

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Perhaps the fog of piecemealism for re-arming of Ukraine/AFU is lifting a bit, revealing that at least the USA’s contributions may be more systematic than indicated by the frequent bickering, politicking and often frustrating (tanks!) public debates in Europe and the USA.

This isn't the first time we've seen how far advanced support is before announcements are made.  Bradleys is the most recent example where the US announced the first 500 Ukrainians would start training and only after that there was a footnote "oh, BTW, there's been an advanced party of 50 training in Germany for some time already".

I think the plan for arming Ukraine systemically is pretty much established at the highest level, but the timing of announcing a particular system is determined by circumstances.  I have zero doubts that the US has had a plan for aircraft in place for months now probably right down to the serial numbers of the planes to be provided.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

Finally had a chance to fully read this article. Sounds a lot like the noise the US was making when they were touting the offensive around Kherson when the real attack was around Kharkiv.
 

Yup, struck me the same way.  Whatever the case might be, the US is for sure well informed about what is going on and would not be expressing real "doubts" or "concerns" publicly like this.

27 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

Is Russia stupid enough to fall for the same trick twice?

Time will tell, but the Magic 8 Ball says "Yes"

Steve

[Huba]

20 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Including the imaginary heavy western equipped brigades churned out in weeks (!)

I doubt anybody ever suggested that - reportedly it will take 3 months:

 

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Perhaps the relative lack of new developments the last months fuels these type of social events.

For sure that is part of it.  Nobody was obsessing over tanks or aircraft when Ukraine was rolling over Russian positions in Kharkiv, that's for sure.

However, the hard fighting in Kherson does indicate that Ukraine needs every advantage it can in order to reduce friendly casualties and speed up the ejection of Russian forces from their lands.  So I understand the desire and the pressure to get more stuff into Ukraine's hands as soon as possible, as I do the frustration when there is something/someone slowing down the process.

I just hope that the discussion we've had here has been useful in giving people a better perspective of the difference between immediate and longer term ways of supporting Ukraine.

Steve

[Seedorf81]

11 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Including the imaginary heavy western equipped brigades churned out in weeks (!) that will smash through the Russian lines and drive them in the sea of Azov. I mean I would like to see that, like I'd like to win the lottery. But I don't feed myself with improbable stuff all the time. If anything it sets up unnecessary disappointment and blurs the vision of what is actually going on.

Emotions are a great good but they can cloud ones observation / analysis.

Perhaps the relative lack of new developments the last months fuels these type of social events.

Agree totally.

A lot of people seem to think that with even a limited number of Western tanks the Russians will be steamrolled.

Members of this forum already warned that this ain't gonna happen, but lately it looks like there's a "Wunderwaffen-expectation" in the air..

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

I doubt anybody ever suggested that - reportedly it will take 3 months:

 

I just read about it not that far back ;-). 

But what we read here is that the FIRST Leo2s MAY arrive in ABOUT three months. I don't read in there that the first operational brigades with Leo2s in it will be ready for operations in 3 months. 
I read there that there might arrive some Leo2s in 3 months, but it might also take longer. How long from there to be operational is another subject, or for what kind of operations they might even be used etc.

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

I doubt anybody ever suggested that - reportedly it will take 3 months:

Well, there is a history of posts (here and elsewhere) that suggest some people do get ahead of themselves   Just in the last page or two some of us discussed it will be about 8 months to get Abrams meaningfully in service and integrated enough for full combat ops.  I expect the number for Leopards is shorter, but not that much shorter.  Whatever the time is, it doesn't start until the tanks are delivered.  And that's not something we have a hard date for.

I'll also remind you that some here wanted to think of Ukrainian tanks, whatever they might be, rolling into Crimea last year was somehow doable.  I don't think it is doable in 2023, maybe not in 2024 either.  So, not something I'm sitting on the edge of my chair for.

Steve

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, there is a history of posts (here and elsewhere) that suggest some people do get ahead of themselves

Indeed there is - I must've filtered that out somehow. Well, speculating was fun, but now that the schedule is known there are other topics to discuss  

[Battlefront.com]

One thing I really agree with in that CNN article is about not wasting resources.  If the Ukrainians are going to take an Abrams, stick a T-72 crew in it overnight, round up someone who can act as a loader, and then drive them off into battle one at a time... I say don't send them Abrams.  It won't help them, in fact it will hurt them.  Do it right or don't do it at all.

Steve

[Lethaface]

11 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Agree totally.

A lot of people seem to think that with even a limited number of Western tanks the Russians will be steamrolled.

Members of this forum already warned that this ain't gonna happen, but lately it looks like there's a "Wunderwaffen-expectation" in the air..

Indeed. If there is a wunderwaffen it will be A) Ukrainian perseverance and B ) maintaining unity among those that support Ukraine in making sure they can stay supporting Ukraine, including politics and domestic affairs.

I worry more about B ) so I hope that now that everybody will agree to send tanks the ranks can be closed again and support done more discretely. 

[Lethaface]

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

Indeed there is - I must've filtered that out somehow. Well, speculating was fun, but now that the schedule is known there are other topics to discuss  

I'd keep my expectations low about Dutch F-16s anytime 'soon', it will be at least 'Steve soon' .

But please do bash Hoekstra and Rutte for any reason you can imagine .

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Great video from Ukraine's Border Guards showing coordination between a UAV team, command center, and artillery unit. You can see the guys in the command center are able to take the time to strategize what to do and how to do it.  This is much harder to do with a single junior officer or NCO peering over the shoulder of a drone operator and making calls that way.  Mind you, there is a lot of need for that sort of thing, but there are benefits to having a more comprehensive view of the battlefield being used to direct fire.

 

That is an outstanding example of what I think is happening all along the frontline.  It is corrosive warfare in action.  The precision with which they are calling fires is insane - “move a little right and hit that trench”.  They are clearing trenches and hitting single vehicles from kms away.

Now if we want to really make a difference it looks like the UA needs: more trained and equipped recon infantry, better UAS with longer endurance and can see in all-weather, and as much artillery as we can send them.

And while we are at it as far as I can tell we have not sent the UA anything like this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XM395_Precision_Guided_Mortar_Munition

They have the larger Excalibur but a JDAMs-like attachment to an existing lighter mortar would make things even more deadly and could be put into action soonest.

[billbindc]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russians have not shown particular brilliance in this war (understatement, ha-ha) and they are desperate for signs of progress.  REALLY desperate.  Why not let the Russians take Bakhmut and push westward from there.  I think Prizgozhin is dumb enough to do it recklessly, especially now that he's on the outs with Putin.  Then when it's clear they are over extended, smash into the flanks with coordinated force, pinch off whatever moved west, and destroy everything leaving the sector devoid of significant forces.

My broken record response to this is that Prigozhin is not fighting a battle to win in Ukraine, he's fighting a battle to win in Moscow. As such, the normal strategic judgements don't apply to the Russian effort. His goal isn't to "win" in Ukraine but to "win" in Bakhmut and so solidify some sort of ascendancy in Moscow's power vertical. It's not looking like he's managed either...which may be why the old guard is back at the MOD.