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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Russian TG claims UKR arty hit again deployment of Russian troops with huge losses, which can exceed losses in Makiivka. As if personnel was deployed in the basement, but on first floor were deployed ammo and fuel dumps. Russian command brought trucks with persoonnel to the building in daylight, so UKR drone spotted this place. In result of strike ammo detonated, thin brick walls collapsed and flaming fuel has flown to the basement. Most of personnel found own death under ruins and in flaming fuel. TG doesn't say were this happened and how many losses...   

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... Though, probably, this can be Sofiivka (old name Karlo-Marksovo) settlement between Hoorlivka and Yenakievo, Donetsk oblast. Local "authorities" claimed this wsas not artillery strike, but 6 HIMARSes.

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Latvia and Lithuania make similar moves as Estonia in the face of Russian retaliations:

https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-latvia-russia-remove-european-union-tensions-moscow/
 

And now NATO has to deal with Turkey as it says it won't support Sweden's admission into NATO because it supports "terrorism"

https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-not-support-sweden-nato-membership-quran-anti-islam-protest-stockholm-recep-tayyip-erdogan/

Steve

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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Not reliable source, alas. Russians are throwing more and more troops to Kreminna, so situatin there very hard and changable in continuos Russian counter-attacks and meeteing engagements. 

Here is Russians claimed they destroyed UKR position in treeplant near Kreminna, killing 7 and capturing 11 soldiers. They initially suppressed them with AGS, 2S9 SP-mortar and BTR-82A fire, that made outflanking maneuver and came in the rear. Looks like this wasn't real position, because no any trenches, just severeal rifle cells. Probably this unit advanced here and tried to hold ground, but because some reason couldn't manage this timely and was surprized by Russian counter-attack.

 

That's why we still need tanks (to support infantry to get in and get out).

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56 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian TG claims UKR arty hit again deployment of Russian troops with huge losses, which can exceed losses in Makiivka. As if personnel was deployed in the basement, but on first floor were deployed ammo and fuel dumps. Russian command brought trucks with persoonnel to the building in daylight, so UKR drone spotted this place. In result of strike ammo detonated, thin brick walls collapsed and flaming fuel has flown to the basement. Most of personnel found own death under ruins and in flaming fuel. TG doesn't say were this happened and how many losses...   

Зображення

... Though, probably, this can be Sofiivka (old name Karlo-Marksovo) settlement between Hoorlivka and Yenakievo, Donetsk oblast. Local "authorities" claimed this wsas not artillery strike, but 6 HIMARSes.

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Could it be this one near Kadiivka on Sunday?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/over-100-russian-soldiers-buried-under-rubble-after-strike-on-base-ukraine/ar-AA16DXw1?cvid=69b4d788842f40c4949afbb95b3a0e06

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Article in The Daily Beast documenting Wagner "falling apart".  Russian NGO estimates the personnel of Wagner in the Soledar area absorbed about 50,000 fighters total, with about 40,000 being convicts.  Estimated 10,000 remain operational, the rest being dead, wounded, captured, or deserted.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-wagner-group-edges-into-complete-collapse-in-ukraine?ref=home

Steve

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23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article in The Daily Beast documenting Wagner "falling apart".  Russian NGO estimates the personnel of Wagner in the Soledar area absorbed about 50,000 fighters total, with about 40,000 being convicts.  Estimated 10,000 remain operational, the rest being dead, wounded, captured, or deserted.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-wagner-group-edges-into-complete-collapse-in-ukraine?ref=home

Steve

Interesting perspective, however from the get-go these people were set to waist. It's like with kamikaze- overwhelming loosess were expected. Considering 3/4 of Wagner was from the start nothing more than transmition line for cannon fodder from prisons to frontline, perhaps oganization now will be restructured. And goals set differently than current ones, for example they could train mobiks.

 

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1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Interesting perspective, however from the get-go these people were set to waist. It's like with kamikaze- overwhelming loosess were expected. Considering 3/4 of Wagner was from the start nothing more than transmition line for cannon fodder from prisons to frontline, perhaps oganization now will be restructured. And goals set differently than current ones, for example they could train mobiks.

 

There were only so many people in Russian prisons that could meet even an utterly minimal fitness test. They have simply been expended. What I would really like to know is how many of Wagners experienced cadre got killed in the process. Because Russian standards of of training, expertise, and motivation those are pretty good troops, and Russia doesn't have nearly enough of them to go around.

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian TG claims UKR arty hit again deployment of Russian troops with huge losses, which can exceed losses in Makiivka. As if personnel was deployed in the basement, but on first floor were deployed ammo and fuel dumps. Russian command brought trucks with persoonnel to the building in daylight, so UKR drone spotted this place. In result of strike ammo detonated, thin brick walls collapsed and flaming fuel has flown to the basement. Most of personnel found own death under ruins and in flaming fuel. TG doesn't say were this happened and how many losses...   

Зображення

... Though, probably, this can be Sofiivka (old name Karlo-Marksovo) settlement between Hoorlivka and Yenakievo, Donetsk oblast. Local "authorities" claimed this wsas not artillery strike, but 6 HIMARSes.

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Any more word on this? I expect a significant backlash against the MOD if it is true. If it is true it is absolute proof Russia still has the same problem with completely inadequate junior leadership, and communication. Given the HIGH risk of any truly large concentration of troops drawing fatal GMLRS attention, what ever the Russian MOD expects to happen if they aren't concentrated under the eye of a major or lt. colonel must be worse. Worse in this case is rather bad.

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22 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Prigozhin's rise and , probable, fall. 

I really have doubts about an end fall.  He's a very useful check on the MoD,  and the very last thing a Dictatorship needs is an overweening Ministry of Defense. 

So he'll be knocked back,  sure,  but either helm stay around or someone like him to help slap the MoD when necessary. 

 

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52 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Leos2 have the potential to make some people very rich.

Well of course. Don´t expect them to have less corruption than european parliament or german federal government agencies.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63941509

Explainer: How a German ‘climate’ fund fought US sanctions against Nord Stream 2 – EURACTIV.com

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Boris Johnson in his own words:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11667727/BORIS-JOHNSON-sooner-help-Ukraine-victory-sooner-suffering-over.html

The impassioned plea comes with a head-on dismissal of the escalation argument. Few at his level that I can recalled have been so blunt (see inside).

And here is another piece of jerky for the mass media to chew on:

And yes, I accept that when Putin eventually and inevitably loses, it will be difficult to explain it all to the Russian public. But he will find a way. He controls the organs of opinion. He still has very substantial support.

It is not our job to worry about Putin, or where his career might go next, or to engage in pointless Kremlinology. Our job is to help Ukraine win – as fast as possible.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Well of course. Don´t expect them to have less corruption than european parliament or german federal government agencies.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63941509

Explainer: How a German ‘climate’ fund fought US sanctions against Nord Stream 2 – EURACTIV.com

 

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

It's a much bigger story than sanctions violations but well out of the bounds of this discussion. 

Can't forget U.S. issues either ☝️. Putin spread money far and wide. He was winning right up until he believed his own hype about a tree day war.

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36 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Oh yes, Rachoń program, aka Polish Tucker Carlson (except different view on Russia, the same aggresive, arrogant style). This guy is political triggerman that not even try to pretend he is journalist. Entire public television is one of worst things PiS created here...ok, anyway:

For western viewers TVP World may actually present some merits. They do a lot to counter Russian narratives, every 2-3 days present reports with analyses from the frontline, various videos taken from the internet (just don't expect the ones with Ukrainian lossess) and sometimes have interesting guests, if only anchors let them talk. One can watch this interview with Theiner, but I don't think this time he said anything valuable for members of this forum, tiny tactical details that will not build up any larger picture. His view on German government policy are unfortunatelly probably right, though.

Here for example artilce from Politico (which also have its own problems as medium):

https://www.politico.eu/article/majority-of-western-companies-continue-business-in-russia-study-finds/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social

Note scholars probably disagree on how many Western companies indeed work in Russia, but the number is still significant.

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

Leos2 have the potential to make some people very rich.

Recent personall rochades inside Ukraine seem to be due to internal issues rather than connected to Western arms. Part of them were long-pending anyway. Intenal powerplay inside Ukrainian elites is always extremelly murky even for best specialists around (heard already 3-4 different version what it is about, including one hard to believe conspiratory theory that Monastyrsky helicopter crash was not entirely accidental). Perhaps @Haiduk will know more about recent personall changes.

Edited by Beleg85
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On 1/18/2023 at 1:49 PM, Zeleban said:

- In the same direction, the same "trained reserves" from the 2nd Motor Rifle Division of the enemy's 1st Guards Tank Army "surfaced", which were being prepared for several months at the Belarusian training grounds ... and loaded into the echelons of which, "observed" Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR MOU) in Belarus last week ... We (the IS group) have already discovered their concentration in the Pokrovsky area in the Kupyansky direction (they obviously got there through Troitskoye). At least the advance groups of units of this division are already there ...

This was a few days ago, but in re-reading it I noticed it gives us some idea that the threat from a new attack out of Belarus is not likely.  Some of the units training there appear to be moved down into the Donbas.  1st Guards Tank Army is apparently looking to get itself decimated for a third time ;)

Steve

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2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I really have doubts about an end fall.  He's a very useful check on the MoD,  and the very last thing a Dictatorship needs is an overweening Ministry of Defense. 

So he'll be knocked back,  sure,  but either helm stay around or someone like him to help slap the MoD when necessary. 

 

That is why Putin created both the Rosgvardviya, and the Federal Protection Service whose sole job is guarding him. If you need a fourth competing armed force your dictatorship isn't running very well.

 

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On 1/18/2023 at 12:53 PM, Zeleban said:

 

Mashovets posted a fragment of a trophy manual  2022 on organizing combat operations of a platoon-company in a city, in a forest. He claims that at present the Russians are fighting according to this manual. Very curious material, unfortunately without translation. I hope to see a translation of this manual soon.

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/395?single

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/405

Thanks again for your translations.  You can guess I have it all saved on my harddrive for various future needs ;)

Steve

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