How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

Although frowned upon it is quite common for politicians to get well payed jobs in companies after they leave politics and much too often it is those same companies that received favorable legislation and things like that.

Unfortunately, that seems to be “par for the course” for many Government functions. Here in the U.S., the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) had to issue a ban on Managers, Directors, and Associate Administrators who have influence on the regulatory decision making, who leave the FAA from accepting a position in the industry that they regulated for a specific number of years. However, the “influencers found a way around it by setting up “Consulting” Firms and saying they were “Contractors.”

[Harmon Rabb]

US charges ex-FBI agent with violating Russia sanctions (BBC)

Good to see enforcement of sanctions being taken seriously.

[Pete Wenman]

 

P

 

 

[dan/california]

The Baltic States 

[DesertFox]

58 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Many Germans believed in Hitler right to the end. They blamed the party and all the, in their eyes, incompetent, corrupt and traitorous people around him said: "Poor Hitler, if only the people around him had supported him more."

True, without support from more than 90% of the population all this horror would have never happened. One of the key factors was political indoctrination, dissinformation, propaganda and establishment of a police state which lasted only for 12 years (1933-45). The guys born between 1922-1931 were AFAIK the worst of the indoctrinated bunch.

Now ask yourself the question. Since when is the russian population indoctrinated, dissinformed and subject to state propaganda? Since more than 23years now? Even longer because the people never learned to think in democratic terms neither under the Tzar, nor under Stalin or Sowjet era, nor later. The root of the problem will not go away with Ukraine reestablishing its borders to a pre 2014 status. It will be a generational problem lasting for decades, I fear. And I sincerely have no idea how this latent aggressive potential inbread into the psyche of russian population can be contained after war in Ukraine will be over.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

A good description of the 'German affair' on the thread. I'm not German and usually don't have the need to defend them, as I rather opt for Germany to take more responsibility on certain matters almost exactly like you describe in your post. But I don't fully agree that it's a major disappointment. Watching solely the facts of what's been delivered/done, including non-military (financial) support, Germany has 'showed the right colors' when it was required to show hand. It hasn't shown as much initiative as they could/should have, true. And PR-wise they're making a disaster sort of, at least for people 'invested' into media about the war. But I wouldn't call it a major disappointment, more like 'expected'. Major disappointment would be if they would have tried to go the neutral way like Switzerland, one could say Israel and some other countries I don't feel like naming. It is important that Germany keeps following along the rest of the herd. Not sure if playing hard ball by other countries is the best way, but what do I know. 
From my perspective there's quite a bit of evolution in the support delivered/promised to Ukraine. I understand Ukraine keeps making sure we don't lose interest but overall things could have been worse support wise, imo. Including ze Germans.

Fair point.  For sure Germany is doing a lot of good things and NOT doing some bad things.  However, it seems that if Scholz and his party had a choice, they would be doing much less than they are now.  I suspect if the US and some in Europe hadn't outmaneuvered Germany before the war began there would be even less action and more opposition to action than we see right now.

My level of disappointment is that Europe needs strong leadership.  Germany is well positioned to fill that need, but it is choosing not to.  That is a disappointment that goes beyond the immediate tank fiasco we are talking about.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Many Germans believed in Hitler right to the end. They blamed the party and all the, in their eyes, incompetent, corrupt and traitorous people around him said: "Poor Hitler, if only the people around him had supported him more."

That is true for pretty much every dictator and "populist" leader that has ever lost power.  In the United States the lack of support is blamed on "the swamp", for example.  And yet autocratic leaders do lose power and sometimes even their lives despite some people holding onto the myths surrounding that person or the government.  I don't think many in Eastern Germany have a particular sense of loss of Honeke, but even today I hear some who wish a return of the DDR.  But isn't going to happen.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Dam seems to be breaking.

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Pete Wenman said:

 

P

 

 

Not reliable source, alas. Russians are throwing more and more troops to Kreminna, so situatin there very hard and changable in continuos Russian counter-attacks and meeteing engagements. 

Here is Russians claimed they destroyed UKR position in treeplant near Kreminna, killing 7 and capturing 11 soldiers. They initially suppressed them with AGS, 2S9 SP-mortar and BTR-82A fire, that made outflanking maneuver and came in the rear. Looks like this wasn't real position, because no any trenches, just severeal rifle cells. Probably this unit advanced here and tried to hold ground, but because some reason couldn't manage this timely and was surprized by Russian counter-attack.

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

True, without support from more than 90% of the population all this horror would have never happened. One of the key factors was political indoctrination, dissinformation, propaganda and establishment of a police state which lasted only for 12 years (1933-45). The guys born between 1922-1931 were AFAIK the worst of the indoctrinated bunch.

Now ask yourself the question. Since when is the russian population indoctrinated, dissinformed and subject to state propaganda? Since more than 23years now? Even longer because the people never learned to think in democratic terms neither under the Tzar, nor under Stalin or Sowjet era, nor later. The root of the problem will not go away with Ukraine reestablishing its borders to a pre 2014 status. It will be a generational problem lasting for decades, I fear. And I sincerely have no idea how this latent aggressive potential inbread into the psyche of russian population can be contained after war in Ukraine will be over.

Yup, Wehrmacht last stand at the streets of Berlin was indeed illogical to the core, and very "ungerman" I would say.

One of the main thoughts from this book by Sönke Neitzel we and @Der Zeitgeist mentioned was how even strongly left-leaning sailors from Hamburg and Koln actually believed in Hitler. They were absolutelly convinced that his generals and officials were morons and corrupted, and entire NSDAP ideology was empty, yet they all still followed their Fuhrer judgment.

Fortunatelly Russia is still not Germany in 1945. There is internet, society is largely passive and rather oportunistic than ideologically-driven. I am not even sure if complete defeat in Ukraine would necessarly made Putin fall- he would be much weakened, no doubt, but they seem to have no alternative now and his grasp on power is firm. Hell, Russia is so large and indifferent that he could sold Kamchatka to the USA and if only share profits with enough goons, Russians would probbably largely accept it.  A lot of this nationalistic zeal is fake, albeit unfortunatelly growing more real every month.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

US charges ex-FBI agent with violating Russia sanctions (BBC)

Good to see enforcement of sanctions being taken seriously.

Yeah, heard that as a top news story on the radio today.  A reminder of how no institution in no country is immune to Russia's corruption campaign.  It does amaze me that someone who knows how easily this stuff is discovered when being looked for was stupid enough to think he could get away with it.  That on top of being a traitor to his country, of course.

Another BBC article reminded me of something:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64374948

Given Putin's obvious moves against Prigozhin and Wagner, it is entirely possible the Wagner officer that fled to Norway is working on behalf of some anti-Wagner faction within Russia. 

Steve

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I suspect if the US and some in Europe hadn't outmaneuvered Germany before the war began there would be even less action and more opposition to action than we see right now

Yes and no. The SPD considers itself as the party for solidarity and people in need. Without the pressure Germany probably less weapons to Ukraine. But the money send to Ukraine would be the same and possibly more, I think. More for several reasons: a) To make up for not delivering weapons (could be easily argued, "We are not sending weapons but we give more money than the weapons would cost us. Humanitarian aid is what the common people profit the most from." - something like that. b) In the past it was common that Germany sends maybe some token recon Tornados and a big pay check, we are used to that. c) For German governments the way to handle a crisis is to throw money at it. d) This last point won't sit well with everyone: All this outside pressure in a way restricts what the government can do. During the debt crisis, the situation was often perceived by Germans as everyone hating our guts but still wanting our money and saying f*** you when they get it (very oversimplified, I know). The situation now is not entirely different and if you read comments on news sites and in social media, the mood seems a bit similar. If the government now gives in too much it is perceived as weak and sucking up to USA and EU and whatnot by some and warmongering by others.

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

What is more important, the Trump administration had tried to blackmail Germany several times, Nord Stream 2 being one of the targets. Several Republican Governors had threatened the mayor of the small town where Nord Stream 2 would reach Germany. Incidentally the Governors' states would be the ones to profit from selling LNG to Germany.

Not defending Trump, I can’t stand the blowhard, but a State’s Governor is NOT part of a U.S. Federal Executive Branch Administration, e.g., Trump or Biden, so I don’t understand the relationship of the “blackmail” to the Trump Administration. A State can engage in contracts with Foreign Entities such as businesses and locals, but I’m not sure I understand how they can blackmail a foreign government entity such as a local Mayor, or whatever the  official is called.

[Butschi]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think many in Eastern Germany have a particular sense of loss of Honeke, but even today I hear some who wish a return of the DDR.

That is a different beast entirely. Hitler was a very popular person at the height of his power. Honecker - never. Many people who wish to return to the DDR do so because subjectively for them life was better then. You did not have to fear losing your job, just to name one point. You paid for it with Stasi and all that but of course people romanticize the past and also Stasi or not getting bananas wasn't a problem for everyone.

[Beleg85]

Interesting details regarding Muscovite tank industry:

 

[Lethaface]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Fair point.  For sure Germany is doing a lot of good things and NOT doing some bad things.  However, it seems that if Scholz and his party had a choice, they would be doing much less than they are now.  I suspect if the US and some in Europe hadn't outmaneuvered Germany before the war began there would be even less action and more opposition to action than we see right now.

My level of disappointment is that Europe needs strong leadership.  Germany is well positioned to fill that need, but it is choosing not to.  That is a disappointment that goes beyond the immediate tank fiasco we are talking about.

Steve

I share that sentiment and for quite a while, although I might give it another name. I know many Germans think/feel that nobody is ready for them to to 'fill in their place', but as their neighbor I can at least say 'go ahead, the job is waiting for you'. But with all paradigm shifts (this are probably several) this unfortunately takes time and goes step by step, sometimes a couple back.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Yes and no. The SPD considers itself as the party for solidarity and people in need. Without the pressure Germany probably less weapons to Ukraine. But the money send to Ukraine would be the same and possibly more, I think.

Perhaps, but I think they would have a "right mess of things" (as our British friends might say!) regarding sanctions, especially SWIFT, if it had been a surprise invasion.  I think it would be Merkel 2.0 where there were strong statements followed by weak actions.

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

The situation now is not entirely different and if you read comments on news sites and in social media, the mood seems a bit similar. If the government now gives in too much it is perceived as weak and sucking up to USA and EU and whatnot by some and warmongering by others.

And here is where poor leadership shown by Scholz comes into play.  He could stand up and clearly state why Germany has to stake a firm stand against Russia and in support of Ukraine, not just a half stand.  Explain to the German people that supply weapons to Ukraine will help shorten the war and save lives.  As you just said, this is an issue that Germans care deeply about, therefore it should be a safe platform to stand on *if* the person standing on it fully believes in what is being said.  But that is not happening.

Further, strong German leadership could make the case that the best antidote to US/UK/EU warmongering is taking a strong stand and rally other nations to Germany's concepts of how to help Ukraine's suffering and deal with the long term aggression of Russia.  This could insulate it from being seen as weak and doing what other nations want it to do.

Instead, Scholz is making Germany look week and ineffectual by making statements that aren't logical and then, later, are abandoned anyway.  Shocking that Scholz' people haven't figured this out yet.

Steve

[Butschi]

6 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Not defending Trump, I can’t stand the blowhard, but a State’s Governor is NOT part of a U.S. Federal Executive Branch Administration, e.g., Trump or Biden, so I don’t understand the relationship of the “blackmail” to the Trump Administration. A State can engage in contracts with Foreign Entities such as businesses and locals, but I’m not sure I understand how they can blackmail a foreign government entity such as a local Mayor, or whatever the  official is called.

Sorry, a bit unclear I guess.

There was this letter from Ted Cruz et al.:

"This letter is to advise, in legally effective form, that Fährhafen Sassnitz GmbH and Mukran Port, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders and employees, are at risk of severe legal and economic sanctions from the U.S. government in connection with these goods, services and maintenance activities [for vessels involved in Nord Stream 2]. These sanctions include potentially fatal measures that will cut off Fährhafen Sassnitz GmbH commercially and financially from the United States,"

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Trump, for instance, threatened Germany to charge a pretty steep tax on German cars if Germany would not reduce its export surplus. How a government is supposed to do that in a free economy is beyond me.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

That is a different beast entirely. Hitler was a very popular person at the height of his power. Honecker - never. Many people who wish to return to the DDR do so because subjectively for them life was better then. You did not have to fear losing your job, just to name one point. You paid for it with Stasi and all that but of course people romanticize the past and also Stasi or not getting bananas wasn't a problem for everyone.

Yes, but that is my point   You were saying that you don't see Putin's regime collapsing if it loses all of its Ukrainian territory, a couple thousand me, and a ruined economy because some people are not mentally equipped to deal with the truth.  If that were the case, then the DDR would still be around.  At least I think that is how we got into this tangent.

Steve

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Sorry, a bit unclear I guess.

There was this letter from Ted Cruz et al.:

"This letter is to advise, in legally effective form, that Fährhafen Sassnitz GmbH and Mukran Port, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders and employees, are at risk of severe legal and economic sanctions from the U.S. government in connection with these goods, services and maintenance activities [for vessels involved in Nord Stream 2]. These sanctions include potentially fatal measures that will cut off Fährhafen Sassnitz GmbH commercially and financially from the United States,"

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Trump, for instance, threatened Germany to charge a pretty steep tax on German cars if Germany would not reduce its export surplus. How a government is supposed to do that in a free economy is beyond me.

Senators, not Governors, a very different thing. 

[Butschi]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Perhaps, but I think they would have a "right mess of things" (as our British friends might say!) regarding sanctions, especially SWIFT, if it had been a surprise invasion.  I think it would be Merkel 2.0 where there were strong statements followed by weak actions.

Probably true.

 

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And here is where poor leadership shown by Scholz comes into play.  He could stand up and clearly state why Germany has to stake a firm stand against Russia and in support of Ukraine, not just a half stand.  Explain to the German people that supply weapons to Ukraine will help shorten the war and save lives.  As you just said, this is an issue that Germans care deeply about, therefore it should be a safe platform to stand on *if* the person standing on it fully believes in what is being said.  But that is not happening.

Further, strong German leadership could make the case that the best antidote to US/UK/EU warmongering is taking a strong stand and rally other nations to Germany's concepts of how to help Ukraine's suffering and deal with the long term aggression of Russia.  This could insulate it from being seen as weak and doing what other nations want it to do.

Instead, Scholz is making Germany look week and ineffectual by making statements that aren't logical and then, later, are abandoned anyway.  Shocking that Scholz' people haven't figured this out yet.

Steve

Too late for that. Explaining and such would have been an option earlier on. But Germans actually watch the news and all (although not necessarily of the trustworthy kind...) . So by now, deciding pro tank delivery will be seen as folding to international pressure. (What people make of that is different matter)

Edited January 23, 2023 by Butschi

[Beleg85]

New podcast came in, just started:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/manpower-materiel-and-the-coming-decisive-phase-in-ukraine/

[Haiduk]

Close hit of Excalibur (?) near 2S4 240 mm SP-mortar near Maryinka. Part of crew is taken out, vehicle, alas, damaged only

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Senators, not Governors, a very different thing.

My bad. Damn. Anyway, "a very different thing" from your point of view (and I see why), seen from afar... not so much.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Butschi

[Vet 0369]

7 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Sorry, a bit unclear I guess.

There was this letter from Ted Cruz et al.:

"This letter is to advise, in legally effective form, that Fährhafen Sassnitz GmbH and Mukran Port, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders and employees, are at risk of severe legal and economic sanctions from the U.S. government in connection with these goods, services and maintenance activities [for vessels involved in Nord Stream 2]. These sanctions include potentially fatal measures that will cut off Fährhafen Sassnitz GmbH commercially and financially from the United States,"

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Trump, for instance, threatened Germany to charge a pretty steep tax on German cars if Germany would not reduce its export surplus. How a government is supposed to do that in a free economy is beyond me.

Thank you for your clarification. First, the letter from Ted Cruz. Cruz is a Senator from Texas, and a blowhard also. He has absolutely no authority to threaten a foreign official or commercial entity with Sanctions or anything else unless possibly there are already sanctions in place by the U.S. Government.

Second, “steep taxes on German cars” is known as increasing the Tariffs on a product if it is determined that the target Country is”dumping” products at artificially low prices to get a larger share of the market. This is common practice in the world markets, and have nothing to do with the Nord2 question.