Kinophile Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 11 hours ago, chrisl said: 100 km DMZ on the RU side of the border. Sure but Enforceable, how? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) German-bashing mode on (well, not really, but there are few people in particular who deserve a good smacking): Edited January 21, 2023 by Huba 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) "Azov" SOF regiment in the clashes on southern section of Bakhmut front "Azov" SOF regiment initially was territorial defense unit, established in Kyiv by "National Corps" movement, but proper training amd effective work allowed them already in mid of March to became a part of Special Operations Command. Also since October first new-trained units of "Azov" of National Guard engaged the enemy in southern part of front Edited January 21, 2023 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, FancyCat said: I can't imagine that Netherlands PM would just casually mention the F-16s without discussing it with all the allies previously, it is obviously testing RU reactions and easing them into the future events that are already agreed upon. Same I think is going on with long range weapons. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) xxx Edited January 21, 2023 by danfrodo deleted 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) Some minor frontline changes: - Heavy clashes near Dibrova and forest around Kreminna. Russian LostArmour forum member told several days ago he talked with soldeirs from there, according their words Dibrova is firmly under Russain control, but UKR can shell it from three sides. UKR troops moved forward on 3 km in the forest, but further encountered fierce resistance and were stopped. In own turn Russians tried to counter-attack, but without significant success. But now UKR soldiers of 95th air-assault brigade say Russians attack continuosly, but they hold the ground. Russian media claimed new reinforcement of VDV and mech.unit arrived to Kreminna to fight back UKR advance. - UKR 81st airmobile brigade after mortar shelling and assault seized enemy positions near Western water pump and filter station on the bank of Siverskyi Donets river in about 2 km north of Bilohorivka village. The hill and pump statin under this hill were seized by UKR forces after long heavy clashes about month ago. - Russian TG complains that elements of 27th motor-riflle brigade almost without fight completely pissed off Novoselivske village on Svatove direction, which they with hard had been recaptured almost two months. This tiny village is like a bridgehead of heavy fortified by Russians Kuzemivka Edited January 21, 2023 by Haiduk 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Huba said: German-bashing mode on (well, not really, but there are few people in particular who deserve a good smacking): That guy didn't give any sources, though, and I haven't found this mentioned anywhere else. And he even contradicts himself because as incompetent and unmotivated as she was in her job I doubt she came up with such a plan. Edited January 21, 2023 by Butschi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Huba said: German-bashing mode on (well, not really, but there are few people in particular who deserve a good smacking): Yeah. Cui bono? She hasn´t done that out of heir own initiative. Why would she? Furthermore every Coy.Cdr. Btl. Cdr., Brig.Cdr. Div.Cdr. knows exactly how many vehicles / tanks / etc. he has at his disposal and are operational or in repair. That whole debate is nothing more than a deception for the mainstream media. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Butschi said: That guy didn't give any sources, though, and I haven't found this mentioned anywhere else. And he even contradicts himself because as incompetent and unmotivated as she was in her job I doubt she came up with such a plan. Lambrecht verbot Bestandsaufnahme von Leopard 1 und 2 - Business Insider 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 minute ago, DesertFox said: Lambrecht verbot Bestandsaufnahme von Leopard 1 und 2 - Business Insider Thanks. Oh boy. She is obviously even worse than I thought. 4 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Yeah. Cui bono? She hasn´t done that out of heir own initiative. Why would she? Furthermore every Coy.Cdr. Btl. Cdr., Brig.Cdr. Div.Cdr. knows exactly how many vehicles / tanks / etc. he has at his disposal and are operational or in repair. That whole debate is nothing more than a deception for the mainstream media. Still that doesn't mean that the new minister of defence has a telepathic link to those commanders and to the industry. As I said earlier, what he said yesterday was not an excuse why tanks can't be delivered now but preparation to be able to act as quickly as possible if the chancellor decides to give the green light. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardiebloke Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Huba said: I can't imagine that Netherlands PM would just casually mention the F-16s without discussing it with all the allies previously, it is obviously testing RU reactions and easing them into the future events that are already agreed upon. Same I think is going on with long range weapons. Denys Davydov says they are training already. He says F18s and it's probably just a rumour but I it's hardly inconceivable that they are preparing https://t.me/pilotblog/2298 If UKR did have F16/18s what would they do with them? I thought the Russian AD still works well enough or can Ukraine get air superiority with enough NATO weapons? Has Russia used up their S300s on playgrounds and apartment buildings? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Just now, Butschi said: Thanks. Oh boy. She is obviously even worse than I thought. Still that doesn't mean that the new minister of defence has a telepathic link to those commanders and to the industry. As I said earlier, what he said yesterday was not an excuse why tanks can't be delivered now but preparation to be able to act as quickly as possible if the chancellor decides to give the green light. He has a staff for that, which knows the exact numbers of every unit. And the bare minimum of preparation for a Ramstein meeting is to know the numbers of Bundeswehr units. Industry units is another beast, but that is not his affair. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Der Zeitgeist Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Furthermore every Coy.Cdr. Btl. Cdr., Brig.Cdr. Div.Cdr. knows exactly how many vehicles / tanks / etc. he has at his disposal and are operational or in repair. If you ever worked in the German ministerial bureaucracy, you'll know that rule #1 for subordinate units is to only report good news upwards and never tell the ministry anything. Edited January 21, 2023 by Der Zeitgeist 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Canadian Cat Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Kinophile said: Sure but Enforceable, how? HIMARS could do it. Only half kidding. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Maps of Russian fortifications. They seem to be growing stadily. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Small anchor mine YaRM for riverine purpose was thrown on UKR-controlled bank of Dnieper shore in Kherson oblast. This mine can be set in shallow waters (speed of current no more 1 m/s) on the depth 1-12 m. Sensor of the mine positioned in 10-30 cm under surface. Weight of mine 13 kg (3 kg of HE inside). Dimensions 27.5 cm in diameter and 51 cm in height. According to unconfirmed information these mines used in Vietnam by sabateurs for mining of possiblle anchor stands and routes of PBRs. Probably this mine was set by Russians for defense of left bank in Enerhodar area and it was torn from anchor. But Ukraine also has such mines on armament. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, DesertFox said: He has a staff for that, which knows the exact numbers of every unit. And the bare minimum of preparation for a Ramstein meeting is to know the numbers of Bundeswehr units. Industry units is another beast, but that is not his affair. Doesn't matter. He didn't say it as an excuse for not being able to deliver tanks. Rewatch the press statement if you don't believe me. Also, of course industry units are his affair. Who else should be responsible for it? In contrast to Bundeswehr assets these can be delivered without stripping active tanks from Bundeswehr units and thereby further increasing the gap between what should be there and what actually is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) 44 minutes ago, beardiebloke said: Denys Davydov says they are training already. He says F18s and it's probably just a rumour but I it's hardly inconceivable that they are preparing https://t.me/pilotblog/2298 If UKR did have F16/18s what would they do with them? I thought the Russian AD still works well enough or can Ukraine get air superiority with enough NATO weapons? Has Russia used up their S300s on playgrounds and apartment buildings? There were also rumors circulating about Ukrainian pilots training on British Eurofighters Tranche1. Polish and Slovakian MiG-29s will go too at some points, still can be immensely useful, especially after integration with some NATO munitions. As for weapons: HARMs are there already, though Western planes that are integrated with them would up the SEAD game a lot. AIM-120 are also in Ukraine as NASAMS ammunition. There were some photos of remains of B version somewhere - enough for cruise missile hunting, perhaps for air combat they would get the modern stuff. On top of that, Sidewinders are a no-brainer, perhaps these were sent too with NASAMS. JDAMs were semi-officially announced some time ago. Getting them the -ER wing kits would make a lot of sense, tough pure speculation at this point. If GLSDB are announced, regular SDBs are also a rather obvious choice. Maybe some SDB II for plinking vehicles at long range? Brimstones are in the theater already, but EF Tranche1, not to mention US jets are not integrated with them. If F-18s were to be delivered, these can fire Harpoons that are also already in Ukraine (possibly not in air-launched version, but that's just a small inconvenience) - now that would make situation over the Black Sea rather interesting. On top of that we are left with speculations. The longer the weapons range, the more useful it is, but also politically more complicated to deliver. JSOW would be my first pick. If cruise missiles are ever considered, then SLAM, Storm Shadow, JASSM in his order of likelihood, but I doubt that we'll ever get there. There's hardly a point in sending them, unless UA gets green light to strike Russia proper. If Typhoons indeed happen, then Meteor could really impact the A2A combat, hardly anything comparable in RU arsenal. Edit: Actually I misunderstood your post a bit, hence the armaments rant But the types of planes and the available weapons really influence the equation here. Also, As mentioned previously by Steve, there are different levels of capability that can be useful without having all the options. So at the minimum Ukrainians would gain a great way to defend themselves against cruise missile attacks (if these don't die out due to lack of RU munitions before). Fire-and-forget missiles that can be launched in salvos, plus good radars would be a huge jump over what they have, and all of that can be done over own territory, without much risk. Close Air Support, or just striking targets along the FEBA are another low hanging fruit. UA are doing it now already with unguided weapons - upgrading that to JDAMs, maybe guided CBUs and such, and throwing in some targeting pods will make these RU field fortifications a proper death-traps. IMO this is the greatest asset UA might unveil when going into the offensive in the spring - let's see. This also is quite safe and doesn't require fighting the Russians. SEAD is next - again it is being done already, but having aircraft with jammer pods, ability to identify and engage targets on the go etc. will again make RU life much much more miserable. As for engaging RU fighters head on and fighting for air superiority, it's going to be a lot harder I think - Russians have AWACS, they have MiG-31s with their huge radars, they have numbers. I wouldn't expect more that hit and run tactics, but perhaps much more lethal to the RU side. Now were we to really commit to the air superiority mission, I'd say that F-15s would make much more sense that F-16s, but I'd absolutely thrown in some E-2 into the mix. And probably allowed UA to strike RU fighter bases, at least in Crimea, with cruise missiles. Doing penetrations trikes over RU territory is the least likely in my opinion. Perhaps some flights over Black Sea might be possible to threaten BSF and southern Crimea, but apart from mission I don't see a reason to take such risks. Edited January 21, 2023 by Huba 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, beardiebloke said: Denys Davydov says they are training already. He says F18s and it's probably just a rumour but I it's hardly inconceivable that they are preparing https://t.me/pilotblog/2298 If UKR did have F16/18s what would they do with them? I thought the Russian AD still works well enough or can Ukraine get air superiority with enough NATO weapons? Has Russia used up their S300s on playgrounds and apartment buildings? I think the answer might be in your question. Every trend in the ZSU is towards NATOization and the basic mission of every NATO air force is command of the skies, which boils down to SEAD. Everything major follows from that and is not done until at least dominance is achieved. By contrast RuAur is doctrinally and structurally air artillery. So my bet is UKR won't waste a F fleet on ground attack, they'll go full A$$hole on RUS AD and AF, enabling their SuMig contingent to follow its heart and pound the ground. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, Butschi said: Doesn't matter. He didn't say it as an excuse for not being able to deliver tanks. Rewatch the press statement if you don't believe me. Also, of course industry units are his affair. Who else should be responsible for it? In contrast to Bundeswehr assets these can be delivered without stripping active tanks from Bundeswehr units and thereby further increasing the gap between what should be there and what actually is. Nope. Industry units are not in the possession of the Bundeswehr or the german state, hence not his affair, but responsibility of the ministry of economy, which has to give green light for every weapon export or re-export. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Der Zeitgeist Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 Good thread putting some context into the Leopard saga: 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 (edited) How to take position without (visible) losses for both sides. Russian assault group (10+ men) attacks UKR position somewhere in Zaporizhzhia oblast. Looks like they surprised two UKR soldiers, who guarded the trench and after short skirmish (interesting that both sides fires each other from knife range, but didn't hit) they retreated along the trench. Russians chase them. On second video Russians move along trenches, throwing grensdes in blindages and two other UKR soldiers ran out from blindage, successfully retreating. Looks like both sides didn't understand where the enemy. Upper video - first part, lower - second part Edited January 21, 2023 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, DesertFox said: Nope. Industry units are not in the possession of the Bundeswehr or the german state, hence not his affair, but responsibility of the ministry of economy, which has to give green light for every weapon export or re-export. Fair enough, although I think in terms of possible reserves, the MoD keeps an eye on industry stocks and I'm convinced both ministries talk to each other about that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted January 21, 2023 Share Posted January 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said: Good thread putting some context into the Leopard saga: Nice try to construct a narrative, but there is a track record for this german behaviour: Calls to Give Heavy Weapons to Ukraine Divide Germany’s Government - The New York Times (nytimes.com) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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