How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

According to Reznikov, training already started on the Leopard 2. Kinda reinforces the point I made in my post just above - Leo2 is a go, just obfuscated from public opinion's view. As noted in one of the comments, this very well might be going on for some time already, same as with the new "Polish" brigade that is to be deployed in March.

 

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Where is this happening? 

Zeleban posted a video yesterday and I commented it according to General Staff statement and different RUMINT. This was somewhere between Orikhove and Huliaypole. Minor tactical attacks. Maybe this is first probes, maybe Russians have seen "offensive" in platoon sized atatck. 

[Haiduk]

Sweden is top. I always liked their weapon

 

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

- Mark Milley made a statement that despite Russia lsot more 100000 of troops, they are substituting own losses, UKR losses also very significant, Russia destroyed power infrastructure, have been killing civilians. He doubts UKR will be able to expel Russians up to the end of year. And sooner or later both sides will be forced to end this war on the negotiation table to avoid further losses. (hello Korean scenario?)

Here's a thread where O'Brien dissects what he said exactly - and it is quite a bit more optimistic:

 

[A Canadian Cat]

23 hours ago, Thomm said:

Leopard 1: First in CM or in Ukraine?

Leopard 1s are already in CM. The Canadians have them in Shock Force.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

What do you suggest Germany should have done? How would you have gone from 55% Russian gas to 0%? Germany was frantically trying to get replacements from other sources but such things take time. We didn't even have LNG terminals back then. Of course we tried to load our gas storages as much as possible before the winter. And we supplied France with power when they had trouble with their nuclear power plants. Generated from Russian gas. Btw. Germany instantly agreed to quit NS2 when the war started.

If there one thing I do not hold against Germany it is taking Russian gas while it was available. Cutting off that supply any sooner than the Russians did would have been a net negative for the overarching goal of Ukraine winning the war. I would simply point out that while that was a necessity, Germany was paying for the Russian side of the war up until the day the pipelines got blown. Furthermore decades of previous gas payments built the entire army that invaded Ukraine. The checks they are writing Ukraine ought to reflect that. 

[FancyCat]

 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

This is the closest thing I have seen to the Russians trying anything outside of what I will call greater Bakmuht. Sounds like it was less than successful. It may or may not have been what Ghirkin was referring too.

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is the closest thing I have seen to the Russians trying anything outside of what I will call greater Bakmuht. Sounds like it was less than successful. It may or may not have been what Ghirkin was referring too.

Is this area Wagner or regular army?

[poesel]

4 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Maybe after this endeavor the average german will be more compelled to vote for visionary, decisive leadership. That has not been the case for quite a while imo.

Yes, but no. Current polls put the CDU (Merkels party) ahead. The one that did more or less nothing the last 16 years.
Oh boy, do I wish Helmut Schmidt or Wehner or even Strauss would still be alive. That would be FUN - unfortunately, the explanation why is too long and too off-topic here.

4 hours ago, Lethaface said:

He's also quite visibly uncomfortable on most of the images/video's that get posted of him during interviews/talks. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't sit out his term, although I don't know how usual that is in Germany.

Scholz is the 9th chancellor. Three of his predecessors didn't run their full term (Erhard, Brand & Schmidt). Last time this happened was in 1982. But it is highly unlikely that Scholz would stumble over this tank thing.

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Is this area Wagner or regular army?

Forty mile south of Bakmuht, and basically a northern Suburb of Donetsk city, so I would assume not. But the Russians don't feel any great urge to be consistent about these things.

 

[paxromana]

8 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

What's the worst that could happen if other countries decide to send their Leopard tanks anyway, no matter what Germany says? That Scholz will write them a strongly worded letter?

That and a slap on the wrist with a piece of damp lettuce?

[Butschi]

31 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If there one thing I do not hold against Germany it is taking Russian gas while it was available. Cutting off that supply any sooner than the Russians did would have been a net negative for the overarching goal of Ukraine winning the war. I would simply point out that while that was a necessity, Germany was paying for the Russian side of the war up until the day the pipelines got blown. Furthermore decades of previous gas payments built the entire army that invaded Ukraine. The checks they are writing Ukraine ought to reflect that. 

Fair enough. But if you really mean that kind of moral approach, the West is in for a really unpleasant wake-up call. We all have blood on our hands. We all do business with dictators and we all look the other way as long as their victims suffer and die in a far away country and preferably have a skin color different from ours.

Ukrainians are just lucky (if that can be said about their situation at all) that their country is next door from Europe, that their enemy is a country many have old bills to settle with and that they look like many of us.

[Beleg85]

36 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Ukrainians are just lucky (if that can be said about their situation at all) that their country is next door from Europe, that their enemy is a country many have old bills to settle with and that they look like many of us.

This is not about settling the bills nor revenge, but purely pragmatic international policing- we can't allow this Mordor to grow. Unless you want your kids/grandkids to be conscripted into new, enlarged Bundeswehr and spend significant parts of their life on constant watch over some river or forest in Baltics, Poland or Finland against North Korea 2.0 armed with nukes and several mlns soldiers. Like many Western and Eastern Germans did for two generations against each other  by the way.

 

Some clips from Bakhmut, better to turn off music:

 

[kevinkin]

Just checked what I heard on TV. 

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3656296-milley-its-very-possible-for-ukrainians-to-run-operationallevel-offensive-operation.html

Milley is talking tactical and operational UA offensives, not strategic. He said: “I do think it's very, very possible for the Ukrainians to run a significant tactical or even operational-level offensive operation to liberate as much Ukrainian territory as possible,” the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

But: “From a military standpoint, I still maintain that for this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine. That doesn't mean it can't happen doesn't mean it won't happen, but it will be very, very difficult,” Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Army General Mark A. Milley said following the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Germany on Friday, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

No end in sight unless he is just trying to obfuscate while everything unfolds in 2023.  

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Fair enough. But if you really mean that kind of moral approach, the West is in for a really unpleasant wake-up call. We all have blood on our hands. We all do business with dictators and we all look the other way as long as their victims suffer and die in a far away country and preferably have a skin color different from ours.

Ukrainians are just lucky (if that can be said about their situation at all) that their country is next door from Europe, that their enemy is a country many have old bills to settle with and that they look like many of us.

All true. But this a golden chance to do well while doing good, and make the underpinnings of the modern world stronger for generations. The West is still nearly clueless about how to turn a disaster area of a country into anything decent. We have demonstrated this recently, and expensively. But we are also quite capable of supporting a country that had almost finished turning ITSELF into a decent place, and just has this bear problem.

Edited January 21, 2023 by dan/california

[Butschi]

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

This is not about settling the bills nor revenge, but purely pragmatic international policing- we can't allow this Mordor to grow. Unless you want your kids/grandkids to be conscripted into new, enlarged Bundeswehr and spend significant parts of their life on constant watch over some river or forest in Baltics, Poland or Finland against North Korea 2.0 armed with nukes and several mlns soldiers. Like many Western and Eastern Germans did for two generations against each other  by the way.

Very well, add "actually threatens us" to the list.

Sadly, we allow a lot of small Mordors to exist and don't give a damn if their orcs plunder, pillage and rape in Rhûn or Harad. Not if those Saurons help us make our rings of power.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Butschi

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Just checked what I heard on TV. 

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3656296-milley-its-very-possible-for-ukrainians-to-run-operationallevel-offensive-operation.html

Milley is talking tactical and operational UA offensives, not strategic. He said: “I do think it's very, very possible for the Ukrainians to run a significant tactical or even operational-level offensive operation to liberate as much Ukrainian territory as possible,” the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

But: “From a military standpoint, I still maintain that for this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine. That doesn't mean it can't happen doesn't mean it won't happen, but it will be very, very difficult,” Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Army General Mark A. Milley said following the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Germany on Friday, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

No end in sight unless he is just trying to obfuscate while everything unfolds in 2023.  

 

Did we ever expect Ukrainians to take the landbridge and Crimea and Donbas by force and in a single year? I guess negotiations and/or RU political collapse will happen earlier, perhaps after the one of these three operations ends with success. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

According to Reznikov, training already started on the Leopard 2. Kinda reinforces the point I made in my post just above - Leo2 is a go, just obfuscated from public opinion's view. As noted in one of the comments, this very well might be going on for some time already, same as with the new "Polish" brigade that is to be deployed in March.

 

My theory, buried many pages ago I think, is they gave Germany a way to save face. 

The Germans said they would not give permission, Poland and others said they would send them anyway.  This would put Germany in a very bad spot; let it happen or impose penalties on the nations for breaking the contract.  Neither are good right now with the temperature over the issue so high.

The compromise appears to be that Germany isn't put into this position, training happens (Germany can't stop that anyway), and Germany will allow the transfer sometime before Ukraine is ready to use the.  This means the issue can die down and permission not seen as deliberate rather than pressured.

I will say this, though.  The Germans today did it again.  Pistorius laid out a heavy heaping of BS excuse as part of the cover story for the compromise.  He said the reason Germany couldn't make a decision right now is because they need to inventory what they have and figure out what the state of everything is.  If Germany didn't do this 6-8 months ago I'd be surprised.  If it didn't do it 6-8 months ago then the Germans deserve more bashing for not being proactive.  And in any case, how long would it take to double check the paperwork?  Couple of days or maybe a week?  They knew this decision was being asked of them, so again... if they didn't have this answer for real, then they deserved to get bashed.

This has been a total and unmitigated PR fiasco for Germany.  The blame is square on Schulz for this, but it is pretty obvious he is not acting alone.  The question still remains... what are we missing?

Steve

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Just checked what I heard on TV. 

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3656296-milley-its-very-possible-for-ukrainians-to-run-operationallevel-offensive-operation.html

Milley is talking tactical and operational UA offensives, not strategic. He said: “I do think it's very, very possible for the Ukrainians to run a significant tactical or even operational-level offensive operation to liberate as much Ukrainian territory as possible,” the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

But: “From a military standpoint, I still maintain that for this year, it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine. That doesn't mean it can't happen doesn't mean it won't happen, but it will be very, very difficult,” Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Army General Mark A. Milley said following the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Germany on Friday, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

No end in sight unless he is just trying to obfuscate while everything unfolds in 2023.  

 

One week before the Ukrainians launched an attack that took back all of occupied Kharkiv in a weekend the Pentagon was making somber pronouncements about how the Ukrainians couldn't possibly do two offensives at the same time. It was either the only time in history the Pentagon has underpromised and over delivered, or a conscious deception.

 

[poesel]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Pistorius laid out a heavy heaping of BS excuse as part of the cover story for the compromise.  He said the reason Germany couldn't make a decision right now is because they need to inventory what they have and figure out what the state of everything is. 

That can be explained quite easily: he distances himself from his predecessor by pointing (indirectly) out that she did nothing. A political move and it buys some time.

There is that meeting between Macron and Scholz on Sunday to celebrate 60 years of the Élysée contract. There is some speculation about an announcement coming then. Personally, I don't hold my breath, though.

[Butschi]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

He said the reason Germany couldn't make a decision right now is because they need to inventory what they have and figure out what the state of everything is.  If Germany didn't do this 6-8 months ago I'd be surprised.

Sorry, that's not what he said. To make sure I just watched the press statement again. He said that he ordered the inventory to be made because he wanted to make sure the ministry of defense is ready should the decision be made to deliver tanks. Asked about it, he said, that he wasn't aware that an official order to take stock was given by his predecessor but that certainly this topic had already been worked on before internally.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Butschi

[Beleg85]

28 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Very well, add "actually threatens us" to the list.

Sadly, we allow a lot of small Mordors to exist and don't give a damn if their orcs plunder, pillage and rape in Rhûn or Harad. Not if those Saurons help us make our rings of power.

Agree to an extent, however I don't know what actual small Mordors you have on your mind. If so, they are rather Harads, but Southerners always had their own strange political habits and customs...

 

Speaking of which:

https://www.dw.com/en/us-to-designate-wagner-as-transnational-criminal-group/a-64473795

They were much too active in Africa last year...let's hope that mysterious plane dropping bomb on their base was just a beggining.

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

My theory, buried many pages ago I think, is they gave Germany a way to save face. 

The Germans said they would not give permission, Poland and others said they would send them anyway.  This would put Germany in a very bad spot; let it happen or impose penalties on the nations for breaking the contract.  Neither are good right now with the temperature over the issue so high.

The compromise appears to be that Germany isn't put into this position, training happens (Germany can't stop that anyway), and Germany will allow the transfer sometime before Ukraine is ready to use the.  This means the issue can die down and permission not seen as deliberate rather than pressured.

I will say this, though.  The Germans today did it again.  Pistorius laid out a heavy heaping of BS excuse as part of the cover story for the compromise.  He said the reason Germany couldn't make a decision right now is because they need to inventory what they have and figure out what the state of everything is.  If Germany didn't do this 6-8 months ago I'd be surprised.  If it didn't do it 6-8 months ago then the Germans deserve more bashing for not being proactive.  And in any case, how long would it take to double check the paperwork?  Couple of days or maybe a week?  They knew this decision was being asked of them, so again... if they didn't have this answer for real, then they deserved to get bashed.

This has been a total and unmitigated PR fiasco for Germany.  The blame is square on Schulz for this, but it is pretty obvious he is not acting alone.  The question still remains... what are we missing?

Steve

Exactly, after these 11 months we really saw massive improvement regarding German attitude-there was really nothing to blame in last several months, and all ritual Germanbashing was rather part of decorum of this board to keep topic alive than real thing. "Now" they start to check their Leos2? C'mon, grandma Lambrecht couldn't be that bad at her job.

I am more and more convinced this kompromat theory may be indeed valid.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Beleg85

[Butschi]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

"Now" they start to check their Leos2? C'mon, grandma Lambrecht couldn't be that bad at her job.

I am more and more convinced this kompromat theory may be indeed valid.

I like a good conspiracy theory just as much as everyone else. But you guys are really interpreting too much into what Pistorius said. I would volunteer to make a transcript and translation of what he really said in that press statement but my head is aching and I think I will go to bed, instead.

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1616525786437283840?t=SGYQDAF8-I47onUc5N_2Yg&s=19