How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Not sure how much weight/attention I would pay to any articles penned by  Brandon J Weichert  ?

Just one guy's opinion and opinions are cheap - lives are not. He is noting that the US has wanted complete and clean solutions in recent history damaging the county's interests globally by saying in conflict too long. As been discussed already here, Russia has lost this war even if they hold Donbas and Crimea. We would love to see MORE. It's at our fingertips. We can smell it. But that may require direct western involvement on the ground or in the air i.e. taking the war into the Russia itself. And if we go down that road what a mess. Look, the man is nuts to think NATO will dissolve if the war goes south. It will end way before that. I don't like to discount every opinion just because it's at odds with mine. The writer's opinion paints the walls in Washington, or at least the molding. 

Which discounts the possible that Ukraine, for some "insane" reason, wants its territory back.  I mean, who has ever heard of a nation wanting it's lost lands returned to its control AND is willing to fight for it?  I'm a historian and I can not recall a single incident where this has been the case.  All examples of wars over lost terrain were because the US, or some other great power, made a proxy war out of it.

And if any of you believe I'm being serious, I have a very special version of CM: Black Sea that costs $1m Dollars that is so totally worth it.

Sarcasm aside, it really is amazing how people can go off on tangents like this guy without even a simple logic check. Ukraine has stated it wants Crimea back since the day Russia invaded.  Their position was shaped by their own national interests and it has remained unchanged all the way through to today.  If anything the US has had a moderating influence on Ukraine's ambitions to get everything back near term.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

In the introduction, attention is paid to the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in defense. In particular, he notes that when building a defense, Ukrainians widely use not only quadrocopters, but also mini cameras mounted on buildings and trees, with the help of which they control approaches to positions. At night, only the crew on duty remains in position, while the rest of the forces rest 500 meters in the rear, ready to move into position in the event of an attack

Interesting!  I've seen mention of this before, but apparently it is widespread enough that it is in the manual.

Sensors on this battlefield are looking more and more like sci-fi movies every day.

Steve

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have a very special version of CM: Black Sea that costs $1m Dollars that is so totally worth it

Now I seriously wonder if anyone here has those Dollars handy and feels tempted...

[Lethaface]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

See below.

I regards to them being worked up as formed units, they would surely ship them to German base where the Bradleys are working up to speed wouldn't they? Unless other Western tanks have already been assigned but not yet announced. Fifty Bradleys and a squadron of challengers starts to sound a like a military useful thing. Especially if a new set starts training the minute the first batch heads to the front.

Allow me to expound a little bit on the idea that the Challengers are a wasting asset that needs to be used. The Challenger, as I understand it, is one of the best tanks in the world at protecting its crews. So using them to crack the shell of the Russian line a critical spot is not the out and out suicide mission that it would be in anything in the T-72/80 family. If SEVERAL challengers got M, or even K killed making the breach that lets lets ~200 improved T-72s, the Bradleys, and every thing else the Ukrainians have that moves, smash through the Russian backfield all the way to the Sea of Azov the Challengers done their job. indeed they would have done it magnificently. 

 

You've been reading too much Guderian 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Boom boom boom  I'd give that much more priority than tanks, that's for sure!

 

 

I have seen contradictory things about when these would be available in quantity. Are we talking few weeks or many months to see these being fired in volleys?

[Zeleban]

There are a lot of interesting things in this manual, so I will try to translate some of the most significant points.

[Huba]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Man and we take a lot of flak for "not understanding Europeans".  So where do you think western will to continue to push money into this war will go if we all send in 2 Bdes and they are done in a single op?  I mean it had better be the last one because the steady stream of burning/cannibalized/abandoned western equipment is going to do absolutely zero good things for sustaining support for this war in the west.  It will be ammunition for the vocal minority that do not support this war at all, and moreover they all think it is unwinnable....heading into an election year.

In particular case of Challenger 2, 2/3 of them is slated for upgrade to Challenger 3 standard. It entails completely new turret, which as a rule of thumb is equal to about 1/2 of the price of whole vehicle. It includes new gun, meaning that the whole new ammunition logistic chain has to be created anyway. There will be other costs related to the upgrade and overhaul too. For now it will still be stuck with old 1200hp engine, which very well should be replaced in the n so distant future.
These costs are about to be incurred by the UK anyway, it is already decided. Going one step further to both get a better vehicle AND support the Ukraine sounds like not that bad of a deal to me.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Huba

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting!  I've seen mention of this before, but apparently it is widespread enough that it is in the manual.

Sensors on this battlefield are looking more and more like sci-fi movies every day.

Steve

Militarized game cameras are going to be a thing. The gucci ones will come with a selection of covers that match nine kinds of tree bark, and the most common types of brick and siding.

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I have seen contradictory things about when these would be available in quantity. Are we talking few weeks or many months to see these being fired in volleys?

Your guess is as good as mine here, I wager we'll have to wait a bit till we see it bonking Russians. But the most important thing would be to have it confirmed, and see Russian logisticians move everything another 80 kilometers further back

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Your guess is as good as mine here, I wager we'll have to wait a bit till we see it bonking Russians. But the most important thing would be to have it confirmed, and see Russian logisticians move everything another 80 kilometers further back

Confirmation by massive secondaries would be ideal.

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Your guess is as good as mine here, I wager we'll have to wait a bit till we see it bonking Russians. But the most important thing would be to have it confirmed, and see Russian logisticians move everything another 80 kilometers further back

Indeed big booms in Russian rear is best imo. I don't think we have seen everything yet this winter season, but that's just a guess/feeling. Could very well be that the movements inside Belarus have altered some Ukrainian plans.
With enough ammo for the Himars and other PGMs I'd expect Ukraine to continue putting the hurt on.

[Twisk]

@Huba

I think you have been asking about Switchblade 300. Supposedly this is footage of such. Warning combat deaths.

 

 

Sorry again for using reddit for posts but here I see (also warning combat deaths) 6 destroyed BMP-1. This is nearly a whole company in CM terms in a small area. I am left wondering how many vehicles do the Russians still have. It has been decades since last production in Russia (USSR), many must be sold off, many must be unworkable after sitting around.
 

 

[Beleg85]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/berlin-wont-allow-exports-of-german-tanks-to-ukraine-unless-u-s-sends-own-tanks-officials-say-11674069352

Seem like current negotiatining position of Scholz for conference.

[Zeleban]

Based on the tasks and actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Assault troops should be formed in units

Assault troops consists of a reinforced motorized rifle (airborne, airborne assault) battalion

 

The task of the assault troops is to capture a stronghold of a position, blocking large structures, sometimes one or two quarters in a populated area.

Troop structure:

-management;

-2-3 assault companies;

-intelligence group;

-tank group(3 T-72 units);

-mobile EW group;

-UAV group;

-flamethrower group(RPO - 12 units);

-air defense group (ZU-23 - 2 units, MANPADS - 3 units);

-artillery support units(

-self-propelled artillery battery 2s9 nona - 6 guns. Howitzer battery D-30 - 6 guns);

-fire support group(AGS-17 - 2 units. Machine gun "Kord" - 2 units. Sniper pair - 2 units. ATGM - 2 units);

-Engineering Assault Group;

-reserve group;

-medical evacuation group;

-armored vehicle recovery team(BREM-L - 1 unit);

[Hister]

Any thoughts on Binkov's Ukraine war predictions here?

 

[DesertFox]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/berlin-wont-allow-exports-of-german-tanks-to-ukraine-unless-u-s-sends-own-tanks-officials-say-11674069352

Seem like current negotiatining position of Scholz for conference.

Dunno what is wrong with this guy, but that is embarassing.

[Zeleban]

task of the assault company - capture by the object of attack (quarter, building) or part of it, a piece of terrain.

 

an assault company may consist of:

-management;

-UAV crew;

-assault platoons;

-fire support platoon(AGS-17 - 2 units. Machine gun "Kord" - 2 units. Sniper pair - 2 units. ATGM - 2 units);

-armored group(BMP/BMD - 4 units, T-72 - 1 unit);

-reserve squad;

-artillery support platoon(82/120 mm mortars - 2 units, D-30 - 1 unit);

-evacuation squad;

 

[Kraft]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/berlin-wont-allow-exports-of-german-tanks-to-ukraine-unless-u-s-sends-own-tanks-officials-say-11674069352

Seem like current negotiatining position of Scholz for conference.

Must not bash.. must not bash..

Clearly, Russia can only be convinced to *not* Nuke the collective West if the US sends a few Abrams as well. I guess. 

Early in the War I assumed Scholz was being pressured via Gas and Oil imports that could cause economic damage, but apperently there needs to be no rational reason for his behavior.

Or he actually is Schroeder, but with a convincingly good face mask on.

Edited January 18, 2023 by Kraft

[FancyCat]

I'm leaning that the U.S has pledged tanks and it's moot. Just disappointing rhetoric does not match action. Acting like a vassal state of the U.S. not even like joint Franco-German action.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

And if any of you believe I'm being serious, I have a very special version of CM: Black Sea that costs $1m Dollars that is so totally worth it.

Steve

ohhhh the one that comes with the "brain in a jar" bobble head?

[Zeleban]

An assault platoon can consist of 12-15 people, divided into combat troikas (small tactical groups), the composition and weapons of which change based on their specific task (storming a building, storming a forest plantation, etc.). The platoon can be reinforced by the reserve squad of the company (machine gunner, assistant machine gunner, shooter).

Variant of the composition of the assault platoon of the Airborne Forces on the BMD:

-Platoon leader;

-signalman;

-medic;

-senior shooter;

-spotter;

-machine gunner;

-assistant machine gunner;

-grenade launcher;

-assistant grenade launcher;

-sapper shooter

-sapper shooter

-shooter-quadrocopter operator

Variant of the composition of the assault platoon of the infantry on the BMP:

-Platoon leader;

-radio operator (attached from signal platoon)

-deputy platoon leader (squad leader);

-senior shooter;

-machine gunner

-machine gunner's assistant

-grenade launcher;

-assistant grenade launcher;

-medic;

-sapper(Attached from the engineer-sapper company)

-sapper(Attached from the engineer-sapper company)

-shooter-quadrocopter operator

Edited January 18, 2023 by Zeleban

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

There are a lot of interesting things in this manual, so I will try to translate some of the most significant points.

Most appreciated!

Steve

[Zeleban]

Variant of the composition of the reserve squad of the Airborne Forces on the BMD:

-machine gunner

-machine gunner's assistant

-shooter

Variant of the composition of the reserve squad of the infantry  on the BMP:

 

-machine gunner

-senior shooter;

-shooter

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Interesting. Not sure if possible or true but someone should crack open those tanks. Maybe some psyops but I know nothing about this opposition paper.

 

The fumes in those tanks...thats just so ludicrous. Even if using brand new, unused ones,  the air supply need is where? How do they not  Far more useful to use them for fuel. RUS has no issue moving men etc around. Plus, once those half-dead, fume-brained mobiks stagger out/are lifted out of the tanks,  then what?  They still need to be housed, and unless you're breaking the force up into small groups and - 

Im sorry,  this is just a waste of time. 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Militarized game cameras are going to be a thing. The gucci ones will come with a selection of covers that match nine kinds of tree bark, and the most common types of brick and siding.

They already are probably a thing. The Ukrainian Volunteer blog has a note about it,  where during briefing for a recon mission he asked about game cameras,  if Command had evidence if it was a real issue. The answer was they did not but best to assume it was possible.