How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's worth to explain for other. UKR drone recons of K-2 unit of 54th mech.brigade have spotted dead Russian soldier with radio. They picked up radio with special equipment, attached to drone and could listen during nine days all radio traffic of Russian unit. Only since nine days Russians have suspected that something going wrong and changed settings of own radionetwork. 

Thanks for sharing Haiduk. Sounds like Illia Ponomarenko was right on the money when he called Ukraine the John McClane of countries.

 

[Artkin]

38 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Now this is great:

Stealing a radio? Lmao. 

[Haiduk]

Five explosions in Berdiansk

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

In the “Recommendations for Military Aid” category I’d have thought a key takeaway from this thread would have been the importance of winning the ‘drone war’ (‘dominating the dronesphere’?). I assume that’s covered somewhere in numbers 1 and 10, maybe?

Well, not exactly.  This was under Point 7, but not explicitly enough.  I changed that and also updated the title to read "Increase capabilities for sustaining operations" to emphasize it isn't just warehouse and forklifts.

1 hour ago, Eddy said:

Just to be specific, is that more ammo, more tubes or both?
 

Both.  Explicit mention of mortars as well.

1 hour ago, Eddy said:

Also did see a couple of tweets from Ukrainians asking for cluster munitions - is that doable from a US perspective?

Not likely.  There's significant complications with such a transfer as the weapon itself is controversial even within the US military.

57 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I think an important point would be the direction of the frozen Russian assets for the restoration of Ukraine. It is very important that Ukraine be restored with the money of the aggressor and not Europe. This would be correct from the point of view of further maintenance of order. Any potential aggressor must be aware that aggression will cost him dearly.

Yes, that got an explicit mention in connection with ICC trials.  When a Russian is proven to be responsible for criminal acts, the ICC has the power to redirect his assets to compensate victims.  Switzerland might not agree, but that can be addressed later

27 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Deepen UKRAINE-NATO integration,  training and Coordination.

Yup, that's in there in several places.  However, I did forget to add a recommendation (now #10 in policies at the bottom) to work more closely with Ukraine's defense industry.  So much potential there!  Not only for Ukraine to arm itself but also the US and its allies.  The US relies on many critical systems that were developed by partnerships with foreign defense companies.  I see every potential for Ukraine developing an equivalent to Israel's Raphael, for example.

To channel my inner George Patton... "Ukrainians are clever sons of bitches!" (and yes, that is a mark of respect when it is said with a George C Scott voice!).

Steve

[poesel]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

5.     Work with the EU and Ukraine on reform roadmap that will gain it EU Membership

The EU will have to reform itself before Ukraine can be a member. Knowing the EU this will take longer than the reforms in Ukraine...

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Recommendations For Military Aid To Ukraine
1.     Intelligence sharing - TOP PRIORITY
2.     Artillery, artillery, and more artillery
3.     Expand Deep Strike capabilities
4.     Procure and deliver Soviet era replacements until stocks are exhausted
5.     Help Ukraine destroy Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
6.     Provide heavy AFVs
7.     Increase logistics capabilities
8.     Increase scope of training to include all US schools
9.     Expand long term professionalization
10.   Plan for needs of the future Ukraine Armed Forces

If the list reflects priorities, I would switch 5 & 8

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Recommendations for US foreign and national security policies
1.     Ensure Ukraine Wins the peace – TOP PRIORITY
2.     Ukraine must win
3.     Russia must lose, but not converted into ashes
4.     Ukraine needs justice, not vengeance
5.     Provide Russia with a roadmap to better relations
6.     Prepare for Russia continuing hybrid warfare
7.     Be ready to take advantage of Russia’s short term weakness
8.    Devote significant resources to reinforcing the “Western Order”
9.    Undertake a full review of US military preparedness

 

1 & 4 seem very similar.

I guess 5 can only come from within Russia. I'm not sure how, but I feel that foreign aid in this case will only alienate the people.

7 - how? What is there to take from Russia after this war? Unless you mean to depose of the current ruling class?

8 sounds very much like 'new world order'. That should be rephrased to sound less threatening.

 

Good luck with that list!

[Haiduk]

UKR Defense Express media claims they identified fragments of missiles, which were launched on Kyiv two days ago. From theese fragments they recovered full writing of missile type - 48N6DM. This is one of newest Russian missiles for S-400 SAM. In surface-surface mode it can be launched on 230 km. Weight of warhead is 180 kg (so, about +/-90 kg of HE). 

If Russians decided to try accuracy to make decision about further usage of S-400 for Kyiv and Kyiv oblast shellings, I think, they were disappointed. Only one missile, which impact in Kyiv has struck power infrastructure object area, but slightly missed and almost didn't damage it. Other hit random places, and this was  big luck, that nobody was injured. But such missiles, unlike cruise missiles, having powerful HE charge and huge number of hitting elements are perfect weapon of terror against civilians. 

 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, that got an explicit mention in connection with ICC trials. 

Speaking of which... How about "USA to join the ICC" for your list?

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Speaking of which... How about "USA to join the ICC" for your list?

Heh... yeah, I was reminded of that the other day.  I do live in a country of quite obvious contradictions, that's for sure.

Steve

[Seedorf81]

Just in:

"Former high-ranking Wagner commander crossed the Russian-Norwegian border on foot and asked for asylum. Didn't want to renew his contract in July 2022 after witnessing executions of comrades.
Says he wants to testify against Prigozjin."

Don't know what they mean by high-ranking, but even his name is mentioned.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, poesel said:

The EU will have to reform itself before Ukraine can be a member. Knowing the EU this will take longer than the reforms in Ukraine...

Trust me, I thought of the same thing when writing ANYTHING about the EU.  Well, a good plan that is frustratingly slow to implement is better than the alternatives.  If Ukraine cleans up its governance and isn't accepted into the EU, at least it will be a much better country for trying.

24 minutes ago, poesel said:

If the list reflects priorities, I would switch 5 & 8

Not especially prioritized, but because of the terror strikes coming from Russian ships I'd rank sinking them higher priority right now.

24 minutes ago, poesel said:

1 & 4 seem very similar.

#1 focuses on supporting/rebuilding Ukraine after the war, #4 is about holding Russia accountable and

24 minutes ago, poesel said:

I guess 5 can only come from within Russia. I'm not sure how, but I feel that foreign aid in this case will only alienate the people.

This is explained as a checklist of things Russia needs to do before it can get off the "naughty list".  Which, if I had my way, would including a listing on the State Sponsor of Terrorism list.  Things like an independent judiciary, no state media, education reform, etc. should be spelled out and incentives provided if they are met.  Like you, I don't think sending money to help them is appropriate.  Lifting sanctions on certain things to allow them to earn money to implement further reforms?  I'd be OK with that if I had some confidence they were moving in the right direcftion.

24 minutes ago, poesel said:

7 - how? What is there to take from Russia after this war? Unless you mean to depose of the current ruling class?

Russia is already weak and it will be even weaker, perhaps to the point of civil war, after this war is over.  What are they going to do if a massive new NATO base is established in Latvia?  Or NATO engineer units in eastern Ukraine helping with demining?  Probably a number of things that can be done to Kaliningrad to reduce it's threat to Europe, etc.

Basically, do whatever reasonable things the EU and NATO want to do while Russia is unable to bluff and bluster.

24 minutes ago, poesel said:

8 sounds very much like 'new world order'. That should be rephrased to sound less threatening.

Yeah... I was bothered by that as well, but it is such good shorthand for a vastly complex concept.  OK, I'll figure out a substitution.

24 minutes ago, poesel said:

Good luck with that list!

Thanks!  If the meeting was today it would have been cancelled due to nearly 24 hours of sleet!  Glad that will be all over and done with before the meeting.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Just in:

"Former high-ranking Wagner commander crossed the Russian-Norwegian border on foot and asked for asylum. Didn't want to renew his contract in July 2022 after witnessing executions of comrades.
Says he wants to testify against Prigozjin."

Don't know what they mean by high-ranking, but even his name is mentioned.

 

 

Oh now THAT is interesting.  I wonder how long the line of intel agents is that want to speak with him

Steve

[Fenris]

12 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

 

DefMon posted this today re the above clip

 

[Seedorf81]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh now THAT is interesting.  I wonder how long the line of intel agents is that want to speak with him

Steve

Update:

Other newssite says he fought until november, but..

"Prigozjin acknowledged that this guy fought for him, and immediately accuses him of mistreating prisoners"!

This Wagner-guy Medvedev also took incriminating evidence/documents on Wagnergroup and Prigozjin with him.

 

To be continued..

 

[Zeleban]

31 minutes ago, Fenris said:

 

DefMon posted this today re the above clip

 

 

I posted this video before. It shows the moment the tank was hit. He didn't just smoke. Charges ignited in the loading carousel and it burned like a match. 

The video also does not show the impact from above, which is typical for such ammunition.

 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Zeleban

[FancyCat]

Debt forgiveness for Ukraine. Keep the country from going under postwar once the aid dries up, which it will and make it easier for post war aid to not be turned into debt servicing payments.

Edit: changed relief to forgiveness to underline the debt must be cleared by the debt holders.

Edited January 16, 2023 by FancyCat

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR Defense Express media claims they identified fragments of missiles, which were launched on Kyiv two days ago. From theese fragments they recovered full writing of missile type - 48N6DM. This is one of newest Russian missiles for S-400 SAM. In surface-surface mode it can be launched on 230 km. Weight of warhead is 180 kg (so, about +/-90 kg of HE). 

If Russians decided to try accuracy to make decision about further usage of S-400 for Kyiv and Kyiv oblast shellings, I thing, they were disappointed. Only one missile, which impact in Kyiv has struck power infrastructure object area, but slightly missed and alsmost didn't damage it. Other hit random places, and this was were big luck, that nobody was injured. But such missiles, unlike cruise missiles, having powerful HE charge and huge number of hitting elements are perfect wepon of terror against civilians. 

 

Was there any photo evidence accompanying this statement? I was discussing this with somebody,  it would be really useful. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Huba

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's something different for you guys to contemplate...

I am about to have a private in person meeting with a senior US policy maker on a matter unrelated to Ukraine. Unfortunately, the circumstances of our meeting do not allow for me to have a detailed conversation about this war, however I was invited to submit something in writing with a conversation follow up with policy staffers. 

A few of us have been working together offline (some not participating here) on recommendations from our perspective outside of the "Beltway".  I have no expectations about what might come from this other than us offering our 2 cents worth of advice that may be somewhat different than what is commonly circulating.  I do not expect to be flown on a private jet to DC to testify

What follows are the "headlines" from the document, not the content.  A cover letter explains where all this good stuff came from, so you can now consider yourselves policy advisors as well as gamers   Since the origins of this came straight from our conversations here your suggestions are already incorporated, but I'm curious to hear any additional thoughts before this gets handed over.

Recommendations for United States legislative action
1.     Clearly define Objectives and Desired Outcomes – TOP PRIORITY
2.     Form a Blue-Ribbon Commission to examine lessons learned and recommend changes based on that
3.     Officially designate Russia a State Sponsor Of Terrorism
4.     Establish the legislative framework for a new Marshall Plan for Ukraine
5.     Work with the EU and Ukraine on reform roadmap that will gain it EU Membership
 
Recommendations For Military Aid To Ukraine
1.     Intelligence sharing - TOP PRIORITY
2.     Artillery, artillery, and more artillery
3.     Expand Deep Strike capabilities
4.     Procure and deliver Soviet era replacements until stocks are exhausted
5.     Help Ukraine destroy Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
6.     Provide heavy AFVs
7.     Increase logistics capabilities
8.     Increase scope of training to include all US schools
9.     Expand long term professionalization
10.   Plan for needs of the future Ukraine Armed Forces
 
Recommendations for US foreign and national security policies
1.     Ensure Ukraine Wins the peace – TOP PRIORITY
2.     Ukraine must win
3.     Russia must lose, but not converted into ashes
4.     Ukraine needs justice, not vengeance
5.     Provide Russia with a roadmap to better relations
6.     Prepare for Russia continuing hybrid warfare
7.     Be ready to take advantage of Russia’s short term weakness
8.    Devote significant resources to reinforcing the “Western Order”
9.    Undertake a full review of US military preparedness

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Eddy said:

Just to be specific, is that more ammo, more tubes or both?

Also did see a couple of tweets from Ukrainians asking for cluster munitions - is that doable from a US perspective?

Just two or three points of emphasis.

1) If we can't supply the shells and barrels and GMLRS rockets that Ukraine needs without affecting our minimum war stocks we need to build factories until we can.

2) Drones are  munitions not capital equipment, war stocks and manufacturing capacity must reflect this.

3) It may be hopeless, but our cluster munitions hang up is inexplicable given the circumstances of this war. Every M26 rocket and 155 DPICM shell that is still usable should be on the way to Ukraine. Show them the tape of the Ukrainian POW being tortured that was just discussed if you need to get the point across.

Edit

4) Seize enough Russian money to cover Ukraines monthly budget deficit for a year, and write Kyiv a check. It will relieve a huge pressure point on Ukraine, and upset the Russians horribly. that makes it a perfect twofer.

Edited January 16, 2023 by dan/california

[The_Capt]

45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah... I was bothered by that as well, but it is such good shorthand for a vastly complex concept.  OK, I'll figure out a substitution.

“It is our world, you just live in it.”  The term being thrown around is “Western Rules Based International Order”.  Pragmatically we need to simply call this what it is because China is clearly working on an Eastern Rules Based International Order.  So while we debate the term they just keep doing it.

The reality is we built the system that survived the Cold War and now need to defend it again.

[FancyCat]

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-debt-freeze-western-creditors/

As it stands, the country is at risk the longer the war goes on, of entering territory of astronomical debt and loans that will deplete any relief or aid given unless agreements are struck to relieve Ukraine of this burden. Note, the Marshall Plan consisted of 80% grants and the rest loans.

Ukraine is paying blood for the protection of Europe and the vanquishing of our foe, the least we can do is military and civilian aid, but in order to ensure a stable, postwar state that will be the vanguard of NATO's eastern flank, ensuring it can stand without being crippled with debt is essential for security of Europe.

[FancyCat]

So...assuming if true, I would rate it more likely Ukraine is marshalling reserves and waiting for Russian forces to be completely exhausted, if this isn't propaganda, before launching further offensives.

Makes sense, if Russia is intent on offensive operations cause the Kremlin has lost their mind, why launch a offensive and force them into defensive actions that allow them to conserve resources vs bashing their head on Ukrainian defenses.

 

Edited January 16, 2023 by FancyCat

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-debt-freeze-western-creditors/

As it stands, the country is at risk the longer the war goes on, of entering territory of astronomical debt and loans that will deplete any relief or aid given unless agreements are struck to relieve Ukraine of this burden. Note, the Marshall Plan consisted of 80% grants and the rest loans.

Ukraine is paying blood for the protection of Europe and the vanquishing of our foe, the least we can do is military and civilian aid, but in order to ensure a stable, postwar state that will be the vanguard of NATO's eastern flank, ensuring it can stand without being crippled with debt is essential for security of Europe.

Yes, this is all covered under the "Ukraine must win the peace".  An otherwise productive nation saddled with huge debt burdens does not fit that definition.  More likely it would mean Ukraine becomes a "failed state", which means Putin got what he wanted.

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

“It is our world, you just live in it.”  The term being thrown around is “Western Rules Based International Order”.

Thanks for reminding me what the full turn being bandied about is.  Clunky, but it's in there now!

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The reality is we built the system that survived the Cold War and now need to defend it again.

Here here!

Steve

[cyrano01]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Trust me, I thought of the same thing when writing ANYTHING about the EU.  Well, a good plan that is frustratingly slow to implement is better than the alternatives.  If Ukraine cleans up its governance and isn't accepted into the EU, at least it will be a much better country for trying.

Not especially prioritized, but because of the terror strikes coming from Russian ships I'd rank sinking them higher priority right now.

 

There is always the possibility of membership of the Single Market via the EEA or, possibly, as an add-on to EFTA membership as a stepping stone here. This has the downside of being a rule taker, in that the EU standards would have to be complied with but no formal say in their making (cf Norway) but UKR might not see that as a big problem in the great scheme of things right now.

[Huba]

24 minutes ago, cyrano01 said:

There is always the possibility of membership of the Single Market via the EEA or, possibly, as an add-on to EFTA membership as a stepping stone here. This has the downside of being a rule taker, in that the EU standards would have to be complied with but no formal say in their making (cf Norway) but UKR might not see that as a big problem in the great scheme of things right now.

Schengen is also a scheme separate from the EU itself. This gradual integration into EU mechanisms indeed sounds like great way to speed things up. Next EU enlargement will probably include also other countries like hopefuly Moldova, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro and more. Half- assing the European Integration is not an option anymore IMO. But the political decisionmaking aspect of this new, bigger communityw ill have to be imroved somehow and it's going to be long and difficult - proceeding with other aspects separately is the right way forward IMO. 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Huba

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am about to have a private in person meeting with a senior US policy maker on a matter unrelated to Ukraine. Unfortunately, the circumstances of our meeting do not allow for me to have a detailed conversation about this war, however I was invited to submit something in writing with a conversation follow up with policy staffers. 

 

Apart from the wisdom of the detailed recommendations, the fact that such a meeting and submission is agreed to is refreshing to hear. We don’t know the implications, or whether this sort of thing has been going on with other interested non official individuals and groups. But we can hope that the long considered and detailed specificity can cut through some of the major noise generated by the many special interest groups and lobbyists. So, well done and thanks.

Edited January 17, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[JonS]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

6.     Provide heavy AFVs

Assuming this is an ordered list(?), I'd drop this one down to no.8, ahead of only professionilisation(sp?) and future army, both of which are decades long activities.

 

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

1.     Ensure Ukraine Wins the peace

I assume the 'win' here is defined elsewhere in doc? Otherwise this is is just "cut a length of cord" - it sounds great, everyone agrees, but it isn't actionable.

Edited January 17, 2023 by JonS