How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

Our favorite Tiktok clown is getting nervous about the new equipment promised to Ukraine.

Will be interesting what Ukraine can do this year with that "15%", that he totally did not just make up.

Seriously, is he high in these videos?

 

 

Edited January 9, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Zeleban]

5 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Our favorite Tiktok clown is getting nervous about the new equipment promised to Ukraine.

Will be interesting what Ukraine can do this year with that "15%", that he totally did not just make up.

Seriously, is he high in these videos?

 

 

You can’t even imagine what is happening on Russian channels on YouTube and Telegram. Thousands of flaming asses. They vied with each other to tell how they will destroy the "Challengers" one by one. Ukrainian trolls are actively frolicking in the comments. Lots of lulz

[danfrodo]

13 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Our favorite Tiktok clown is getting nervous about the new equipment promised to Ukraine.

Will be interesting what Ukraine can do this year with that "15%", that he totally did not just make up.

Seriously, is he high in these videos?

 

 

In his experience, 15% would be a true thing.  He probably thinks the rest of the world works like his world.  he aint  no highly educated, worldly genius.  But dang he has the whole yard gnome thing down.  

[Beleg85]

Good news from Sweden.

 

[Battlefront.com]

In responding above I poked around to make sure I wasn't off the mark.  In doing so I found this very interesting paper:

This is Russia's "New Generational War" doctrine that it is currently employing in Ukraine:

 

Under the changing character of warfare the following phases and new forms of struggle predominate:

(1) peacetime groups of forces start military action (without war declaration or preparatory deployment); 

(2) highly maneuverable stand-off combat actions conducted by combined-arms forces; 

(3) degradation of the adversary’s military-economic potential by swift destruction of military and state critical infrastructure; 

(4) massive employment of Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs), special operations, unmanned weapon systems, weapons based on new physical principles, and involvement of “military-civilian component” (armed civilians) in combat activities; 

(5) simultaneous strike on enemy forces and other targets in the entire territorial depth;

(6) simultaneous military action in all physical domains and in the informational space;

(7) employment of asymmetric and indirect methods;

(8) managing troops and means in a unified informational sphere

 

Any of this look familiar?

The bit that follows illustrates how horribly this was implemented in this war:

Quote

Thus, in the ideal type NGW campaign, the “informational- psychological struggle” first takes a leading role, as the moral-
psychological-cognitive-informational suppression of the adversary’s decision-makers and operators assures conditions for achieving victory.
 

The 8 years since the 2014 invasion were unkind to Russia's ability to pull this off.  Ukraine was not only wise to Russia's ways, but put great effort into actively counteracting it.

Quote

Second, asymmetrical and indirect actions of political, economic, informational, and technological nature neutralize the adversary’s military
superiority. “Indirect strategy in its current technological look” is primarily about using informational struggle to neutralize the adversary without, or with a minimal, employment of military force, mainly through informational superiority (both digital-technological and cognitive-psychological).

Same as above.  It didn't work in 2014 and it worked even less well in 2022.  Not only was the messaging ineffective, but Ukraine was fighting an active war with Russia the whole time and yet Russia was no closer to winning with minimal military force than it was in 2014.

Quote

Third, the complex of non-military actions downgrades the adversary’s ability to compel or to employ force, and produces a negative image in the world public opinion that eventually dissuades the adversary from initiating aggression.

Failed this one big time.  Russia made a lame, half assed attempt at convincing the world that Russia had to act as it did.  Nobody bought it.  Even many of Russia's shills offered no support for the war because they sensed how futile that would be.

Quote

Fourth, the side initiating NGW employs a massive deception and disinformation campaign (along the lines of the traditional strategic operational maskirovka concept) to conceal the time, scope, scale, and the character of the attack.

THIS right here should have caused Putin to cancel the whole war or at least trim it down to Donbas only.  The Biden Admin blew the whistle loud and effectively months before the war started.  Everybody knew what was going on, even if some weren't completely convinced by the evidence.

Quote

Fifth, subversion-reconnaissance activities conducted by special operations, covered by informational operations, precede the kinetic phase of the campaign.

Failed again.  Russia had to minimize its ISR activities precisely because it had no element of surprise.  Everything it tried to do would run the risk of being noticed and added to the certainty of a Russian invasion.

Quote

Sixth, the kinetic phase starts with space-aerial dominance aimed at destroying critical assets of civilian industrial-technological infrastructure and centers of state and military management that will force the state to capitulate. Operating under no-fly zones (along the lines of anti-access/ area denial principles), private military companies and armed opposition prepare an operational setup for
the invasion.

For sure Russia had a detailed plan for this, then promptly botched it because of the failures of the previous points.

Quote

Seventh, by the phase of the territorial occupation, most of the campaign goals have been achieved, as the ability and will of the adversary
to resist have been broken and have evaporated.

Because of all of the failures above, this was simply impossible.  Given Ukraine's determination to resist, I would say it was never a possibility.  Ukrainian resistance was a sure bet and it was completely and utterly ignored by Putin.

There's a lot more in this document that I've not had a chance to read, but what I did skim was very interesting reading:

https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/pp54adamsky.pdf

Steve

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

In his experience, 15% would be a true thing.  He probably thinks the rest of the world works like his world.  he aint  no highly educated, worldly genius.  But dang he has the whole yard gnome thing down.  

And his way of talking is very funny, like a cartoon character. After almost every word, he adds the word "Don". Nobody knows exactly what it means. This is filler word

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Our favorite Tiktok clown is getting nervous about the new equipment promised to Ukraine.

Will be interesting what Ukraine can do this year with that "15%", that he totally did not just make up.

Seriously, is he high in these videos?

 

 

If Ukraine is beating Russia with only 15% of what's sent to them, imagine what it could do if it used 20%

Another demonstration of making a point and failing to achieve a goal.  Reminds me of a story my history professor told our class about a Soviet propaganda film that showed how Americans were poor compared to Russian's living the worker's dream.  In one shot they showed a typical urban housing project drying their clothes on lines between buildings.  The Soviets watching this quickly noted that there were Levis jeans hanging all over the place.  At the time a Soviet citizen had to get one smuggled into the country at a cost that was probably equivalent to a year's wages.  "So the poor in America can afford Levis?  Tell me, how do I get to America?"

Steve

[Beleg85]

News from Soledar: Russian attack is really strong. One military observer account with good sources directly at the frontline tells it may be one of larger battles in this sector, with copious amount of airforce used- situation reportedly resembles Severdonetsk more than recent attacks. Reports that 4 and 17 Brigades are soon to counterattack or already rolling. Reportedly house-to-house battles are raging for several key public buildings.

On other side, Butusov seems to confirm Russians are able now to cut with fire main supply route into the town.

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If Ukraine is beating Russia with only 15% of what's sent to them, imagine what it could do if it used 20%

Another demonstration of making a point and failing to achieve a goal.  Reminds me of a story my history professor told our class about a Soviet propaganda film that showed how Americans were poor compared to Russian's living the worker's dream.  In one shot they showed a typical urban housing project drying their clothes on lines between buildings.  The Soviets watching this quickly noted that there were Levis jeans hanging all over the place.  At the time a Soviet citizen had to get one smuggled into the country at a cost that was probably equivalent to a year's wages.  "So the poor in America can afford Levis?  Tell me, how do I get to America?"

Steve

Yes, that's for sure. Records with American and British bands cost 70 rubles on the black market, with an average monthly salary of 100-120 rubles. This is half the monthly income of a Soviet citizen. At the same time, there was a great risk of being caught red-handed by the police or the KGB. American guitars "Gibson" and "Fender" cost from 5,000 to 10,000 rubles, which is about 100 monthly salaries of an ordinary Soviet citizen (more expensive than an apartment or a car)

[Bulletpoint]

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

So you think Germany, a nation that raped, murdered, and pillaged your country should not have been collectively punished for its actions after the war?  You think Danes should have demined its beaches instead of German POWs, most of whom were old and young late war "mobiks"?  Do you think Germany should not have paid reparations because the money might come out of the pockets of someone who was opposed to the war?  Or do you think the Allies were correct to hold the nation as a whole accountable?

My Danish great uncle that fought in the resistance isn't here to offer his opinion, but I am pretty sure I know what he would say.

Maybe he knew my relatives in the resistance then. They are not here to offer their opinions either, so I think we should let them rest in peace.

In general, this discussion is branching out way more than I can respond to. We could argue back and forth just about the Danish demining topic for a long time. Or the finer points about collective versus individual guilt, and how that differs from holding an entire nation accountable for paying reparations.

So I'd like to repeat the point I was originally trying to make and that I still stand by:

That I don't think it's true, reasonable, fair or even useful to declare that every single Russian soldier deserves a painful death. I think this is a kind of extremist thinking that leads nowhere good.

Of course I agree that Ukraine has every moral right to defend itself. Including by killing any number of Russian soldiers - conscripted or not - as long as this war is going on.

That right does not imply that all Russian soldiers must necessarily be evil though.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

O.o

you do realize that dehumanization had to occur in order for Putin to wage war on Ukraine, and Ukrainians? That the acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing enacted on Ukraine by Russia is done due to this dehumanization, that it is ongoing and continuing right now? 

Of course I do. And you obviously understand that dehumanizing Ukrainians is what lowered the threshold for Russians to commit all those crimes. With that knowledge, what makes you think that in return Ukrainians dehumanizing Russians, while absolutely understandable, can possibly lead to anything good?

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

 

Maybe he knew my relatives in the resistance then.

Maybe!  He was in the Copenhagen area.  Unfortunately, I only got a few stories from him as I was young.  Old enough to appreciate hearing them when we happened to get together, not old enough to make a point of visiting him to hear more.

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

In general, this discussion is branching out way more than I can respond to. We could argue back and forth just about the Danish demining topic for a long time. Or the finer points about collective versus individual guilt, and how that differs from holding an entire nation accountable for paying reparations.

So I'd like to repeat the point I was originally trying to make and that I still stand by:

That I don't think it's true, reasonable, fair or even useful to declare that every single Russian soldier deserves a painful death. I think this is a kind of extremist thinking that leads nowhere good.

Of course I agree that Ukraine has every moral right to defend itself. Including by killing any number of Russian soldiers - conscripted or not - as long as this war is going on.

That right does not imply that all Russian soldiers must necessarily be evil though.

The two concepts are separate.  I think that any armed Russian that is on Ukrainian soil is legally and morally a legitimate target.  For Ukraine to end this war it needs to kill, wound, capture, or otherwise dissuade them from fighting.  Whether the individual soldier is "evil" or "enslaved" is completely beside the point.  War is not about being nice to people, it is inherently about killing them.  Which is why I despise war.

After the war is over I hope that EVENTUALLY Russians can be viewed in a better light than they are now.  I do not think they are all evil or prone to being evil, so I am hopeful. 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Of course I do. And you obviously understand that dehumanizing Ukrainians is what lowered the threshold for Russians to commit all those crimes. With that knowledge, what makes you think that in return Ukrainians dehumanizing Russians, while absolutely understandable, can possibly lead to anything good?

To paraphrase a famous quote from the movie "Vacation":

I don't know why they think Ukrainians are dehumanizing Russians.  I think Russians are doing it just fine by themselves.

Steve

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Ref "most of" above - but thats the point, here. For WW2 the vast majority of the allies were unaffected by direct German action (eg. invasion). They suffered losses but not destruction of their nationhood, attempted annihilation of their population, etc. But Poland did, and even now I would be very loath to say to a Polish person that Poland has "forgiven"  Germany. Like Steve above, I'm pretty certain what my Polish relatives would say to that particular line; and if I pushed further I'm 100% certain they would get...excitable. We're only one generation removed from the war so things are still deeply remembered. Hell, the civil war in tiny, silly little Ireland is still a very touchy and quickly emotive subject.

The deeper, fundamental issue isn't that there is a war on; dehumanization is an unwanted aspect that, and as you very rightly note, is a very slippery slope. The Hereditary Enemy bull**** between France and Germany was exactly that - but because at no point did either country talk about extermination of the opposing population and annihilation of their culture. But the Nazis stated those exact goals for Poland and Russia. So the war in the East became utterly and maximally brutal because the aggressors stated aims were maximalist in the extreme.

So the real issue in this war, now, is that Russia under Putin has also stated its deliberate intention to erase Ukraine as a social entity, and, crucially, followed through on that intent.

The extreme nature of its war aims can only be countered by a completely unyielding and uncompromising defense - because the Russians have created that need. Every Russian soldier within the bounds of Ukraine is part of that horrific project of eradication of another people.

On the broader strategic level it is impossible for Ukraine to strategically defeat Russia. It only has a decent chance at the operational and tactical levels and there is no other path to victory than killing as many Russians as possible as quickly as possible. If dehumanization of Russian soldiers helps that then have it, Ukrainians. You face cultural and social genocide otherwise, so **** it. They started it - and they show zero signs of stopping.

In some ways, and on a more theoretical level, I don't really blame them, I blame Putin and his ilk. But I never forget that everyone knows right from wrong, knows that the repeated rape  of a child is just wrong, to stand by and allow it to happen is just wrong, to be part of an organization that perpetuates it is just wrong, to not say or do anything is just wrong. And I'm talking about Catholic Church in Ireland. I blame the Popes at the time and I blame every single Priest and Nun who stayed silent and did nothing. Collective guilt is absolutely a thing, when nothing is done by anyone to stop the wrong.

Russian soldiers in occupied Ukraine are not doing anything to stop this invasion, so every single one inside those borders deserves to die. Very simple - it's them or Ukraine dies.

That's not dehumanizing, that's the brutal truth Ukraine is living day to day.

---

P.S. I don't want to come across as browbeating in the above. It's tricky, with a tricky subject like this. I'm honestly interested in your response.

I think I am quoted increasingly out of context, I was initially commenting on a statement by @Bulletpoint. I never justified anything of what the Russians did. I accept that apparently the only way to stop the war is killing Russian soldiers. I don't have to like it. I don't. Because - and I admit that may be a luxury I have because I am sitting here out of harms way - I don't enjoy any human being killed. I actually agree with most of what you say. I even agree that dehumanizing Russians is a tool used by Ukraine. But that it is useful now doesn't make it good and it will inevtiably make things more difficult in the future. I get that many Poles still haven't forgiven us Germans. Is it understandable? Yes. But what good does it serve? Few of those responsible are still alive but it hurts relations between Germany and Poland even today and it something that is exploited by populists on both sides.

[Butschi]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

To paraphrase a famous quote from the movie "Vacation":

I don't know why they think Ukrainians are dehumanizing Russians.  I think Russians are doing it just fine by themselves.

Steve

Can't argue with that. In fact I haven't, FFS! But that doesn't make what I said any less true, or does it? Have we really come so far, that we view something that is inherently and fundamentally bad as good just because it serves a purpose? Because the end justifies the means? Because you need to become the enemy in order to defeat him?

And by the way. Everything I said referred to a comment earlier:

10 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

How many intercepted calls have there been, and how many calls have Russian troops made in total? The Russian army is very large, yet we point to a handful of calls and say "Look, this proves that they are all orks".

Edited January 9, 2023 by Butschi

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Butschi said:

And by the way. What I said about dehumnaizing Russians referred to a comment earlier:

Every place that Ukraine has liberated has mountains of evidence of warcrimes.  Murder, rape, looting, beatings, torture, kidnapping children, and general deliberate misery.  I don't think the intercepted phone calls really matter in forming an opinion of what the Russians are like, do you? 

What they do offer is some insight into why they are doing what we already know they've done.  Similarly, the videos of mobiks complaining that they have to buy their own boots or aren't being trained, not "this is wrong and I won't be a part of it", gives us some insight into the mentality of the mobiks.  A whole picture?  No, but what does it matter at this point?  The fact is they are taking up arms and marching into Ukraine to continue this genocidal war.

The solution to ending all this suffering amounts to Ukraine killing as many Russians as possible as quickly as possible.  The motivations and personality of the individual Russians is not relevant.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Maybe!  He was in the Copenhagen area.  Unfortunately, I only got a few stories from him as I was young.  Old enough to appreciate hearing them when we happened to get together, not old enough to make a point of visiting him to hear more.

I don't know if they ever met then, because my relatives in the resistance lived in the opposite side of Denmark, in North Jutland.

There were four in all - one was a priest and spoke out publicly against the Nazis in his sermons, and he also helped hide weapons and illegal newspapers. His sermons eventually caught the attention of the Gestapo and he had to go into hiding for a year. While he managed to survive, an informant told the Gestapo about his brother his brother, who was also in the resistance, and he was murdered.

Sorry for this being off-topic, but I just felt I needed to finish this line of the discussion.

 

[kraze]

43 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

That right does not imply that all Russian soldiers must necessarily be evil though.

So these soldiers are killing Ukrainians because they are being good people then?

No seriously tell me - how the hell a guy who took a gun and came here to kill me, my relatives, my friends - is NOT evil?

This is a serious question - because I perfectly understand why russians are what they are. But I just don't get people from the West who watch someone kill, rape, steal and say "well maybe he's a good person". How does it connect in your head man?

Edited January 9, 2023 by kraze

[Kinophile]

Thank you @Butschi,  good clarification.

There is an added wrinkle though -  with the end of WW2 the demonization of Germany in Europe could finally start to die off. Slowly but inevitably. 

However,  with Russia, Ukraine will always have it on its shoulder. Russia has never been a good neighbour when it was itself whole and unified under stable leadership. 

We can hope for civil strife to pull Russia away and into itself but that won't last.  Yet another tyrant will emerge and Ukraine will again face oppression. 

So, I fear (like you) that the dehumanization of Russians is here to stay, in some firm or other.  

Now,  sure,  Poland.  Okay. But has Poland moved on? And if anything, this war will have just revived and confirmed their very low opinion of Russia. Actually,  isn't there literally a poll last year showing exactly that? 

Russia is its own worst enemy. 

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Thank you @Butschi,  good clarification.

There is an added wrinkle though -  with the end of WW2 the demonization of Germany in Europe could finally start to die off. Slowly but inevitably. 

However,  with Russia, Ukraine will always have it on its shoulder. Russia has never been a good neighbour when it was itself whole and unified under stable leadership. 

We can hope for civil strife to pull Russia away and into itself but that won't last.  Yet another tyrant will emerge and Ukraine will again face oppression. 

So, I fear (like you) that the dehumanization of Russians is here to stay, in some firm or other.  

Now,  sure,  Poland.  Okay. But has Poland moved on? And if anything, this war will have just revived and confirmed their very low opinion of Russia. Actually,  isn't there literally a poll last year showing exactly that? 

Russia is its own worst enemy. 

I fully agree. And I repeat, Russia will have to work very hard (and long) in order to deserve being forgiven.

But when/if they have, we should be ready to forgive, for our own good. And I do realize that's a lot to ask from Ukraine.

[kraze]

42 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I even agree that dehumanizing Russians is a tool used by Ukraine. 

Before 2014 90% Ukrainians considered russians to be OK.

Now only 11% (which is 11% too many). No idea what happened. We just got pissed all of a sudden at good people.

But I guess when a rapist inserts his dick into the victim and the victim cries for help - she's just using a tool to dehumanize the attacker, naughty girl.

Edited January 9, 2023 by kraze

[Huba]

AFV floodgates are opening up even more:

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

In his experience, 15% would be a true thing.  He probably thinks the rest of the world works like his world.  he aint  no highly educated, worldly genius.  But dang he has the whole yard gnome thing down.  

damn you.  Now I can't sleep wondering if my yard gnome is actually Kadyrov...

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Of course I do. And you obviously understand that dehumanizing Ukrainians is what lowered the threshold for Russians to commit all those crimes. With that knowledge, what makes you think that in return Ukrainians dehumanizing Russians, while absolutely understandable, can possibly lead to anything good?

I think this kind of consideration is valid after the war ends, in the civil environment. However, mocking prisoners and treating them very harsh, which from my second-hand knowledge is unfontunatelly common (I had some info from volunteers that UA can do occassionally even worse things, but don't want to spread gossips) with both sides of the conflict, is nowhere near as bad what Russians do overall.

This is war, and war in Russian cultural millieu always opened the can with worst kind of stuff humans can imagine. Totally unhinged. One can argue it is institution's fault, but institutions are part of culture.

Edited January 9, 2023 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

27 minutes ago, Huba said:

AFV floodgates are opening up even more:

 

What do y'all think of this?  Are we happy?  Do we like strykers for UKR?  I have used them a lot in CMBS.  They are better than M113s & pickup trucks for sure, but what big advantages do we expect to get from these?  What firepower packages would be sent??