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New post from Mashovets. Russia strengthens grouping in the Bakhmut direction

 

In accordance with the plan for the regrouping of troops, the Russian command, starting from December 22 this year, began to implement a number of measures aimed at strengthening the groupings of troops subordinate to it in certain directions, as well as the formation and deployment of operational-tactical reserves as part of its troops.

First of all, this concerns those operational areas where the enemy today ... either plans to continue active, offensive operations, or expects such from the Ukrainian Defense Forces ... in particular:

- In the area of the city of Popasnaya, the enemy command, over the past week, concentrated up to 2 BTGr of the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division. The forward group arrived in the area on the evening of December 22, 2022, and over the next 2-3 days, the enemy completed the concentration of these forces and assets. Now the verification and adjustment of the logistics support system of this tactical group, its combat command and interaction with other enemy forces and means deployed in this direction is being completed there. I think that within the next 2 weeks, both BTGr will be put into battle in the direction of Popasnaya - Soledar, or Popasnaya - Bakhmut.

- Starting from 12/23/2022, units of the 20th Motor Rifle Division of the same army began to arrive in the zone of responsibility of the 150th Motor Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces (Donetsk direction) ... According to a rough estimate, the enemy is concentrating up to 4- x BTGr from this division, in order to build up their efforts in the area west of Donetsk, as well as south of Bakhmut ... the movement of the above-mentioned forces and means continues at a fairly high pace. Most likely, they will be brought into battle in the area of Avdeevka, Mayorsk, or in the direction of Marinka - Novomikhailovka.

- In the Bakhmutsko-Soledar direction, the command of the enemy forces also concentrates units of the 7th airborne assault division (up to the 4th-5th armored personnel carrier from the 56th and 108th airborne regiments of this division). It is likely that the enemy will deploy this tactical group of his airborne forces as an operational-tactical reserve of the grouping of troops that operates in this direction. In this regard, the fact that the Russian "Dyusantura" is concentrating and deploying right "behind the back" of the assault units of the PMC "Wagner" looks quite revealing and eloquent.

Therefore, I believe that all this "Wagnerian cinematography", which has recently made a big noise in the information sphere, where the Russian NGSh General Gerasimov appears as a "fu...ng devil" and "f ...t", it may well end "giving a kind of Oscar" to the main characters from among the Wagner boys for these uncertain steps in the cinema (I mean the scandalous recording of the Wagner PMC fighters, where they insult the chief of the Russian general staff) I don’t think that in the event of receiving an appropriate order from their chief of staff, units of the 106th Airborne Division and the 7th Airborne Division will hesitate for a long time before smashing this entire Prigozhin circus to rags ... And, apparently, they will absolutely not care that "Wagner", that is, Putin's "personal army", which "hangs" under his personal control and care "on the balance sheet" of the Lubyanka ...

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Another approach would be to retain several engineering firms and let the Black Rocks of the world invest in those companies. At issue, the perceived "risk" involved. Hard core construction would rather do what it does best and let the financers and insurers e.g. Lloyd’s carry most of the risk. Maybe we will get peace when these guys say enough is enough let's break ground without fear of buzz bombs undoing our work. So, stop and give Ukraine what it needs and be done with it. The writer is a bit naïve since this model is not new. Black Rock happens to be an easy target now whose name will fade away as others jump on board. 


 

Edited by kevinkin
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- In the Crimean direction, the enemy continues to restore the level of combat capability of units and subunits of the 49th Combined Arms Army (mainly the 205th and 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade), which, in fact, form the basis of his group of forces in this operational zone. Strengthening occurs mainly due to the movement through the territory of the temporarily occupied peninsula of Crimea to the zone of responsibility of the army (the left bank of the Dnieper River) of the newly formed units of the so-called "Territorial troops". Probably, this is done for greater secrecy of the content of the regrouping of troops, as well as its camouflage.

- In order to deploy operational-tactical reserves in the Crimean and Melitopol directions, the enemy command began moving and concentrating 2 "airborne divisions of the mobilization reserve" in this zone ... 44th and 104th airborne divisions.

Who has forgotten, let me remind you ... the formation of these "bastard" divisions of the Russian airborne forces took place on the basis of the Ryazan Higher Airborne Command School, the 242nd training center, and the training centers of the 31st and 83rd airborne brigade ...

The term "bastards" is absolutely not in vain and is accidentally used by the Russian military command itself, in relation to these "formations", because their combat strength (both in quantitative and qualitative terms) and the level of combat abilities, today, raise more questions. than answers...

Judge for yourself...

 

- The 44th airborne division of the mobilization reserve consists of 2 regiments - the 111th rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve and the 387th MRR of the territorial troops ... What is "airborne" in it is known exclusively to the Russian General Staff and apparently its commander. ..

The 104th air assault division of the mobilization reserve also consists of 2 regiments - the 1044th MRR of the territorial troops and another "mobilization reserve rifle regiment", which was formed and deployed on the basis of the 83rd airborne brigade and is now moving from Ulyanovsk to front (to the Crimean direction) ... its numbering, combat strength and area of concentration are still being established by us ...

By and large, these Russian "paratroopers" are a banal "mobilized infantry". The fact that they were assembled into more or less acceptable military formations on the basis of real airborne units, subunits and institutions ... does not at all make them "automatic" paratroopers themselves ...

 

Although, of course, the Russian command tried to provide this "mobilization deployment" with a kind of airborne "flair" ... For example, in the process of forming the 387th MRR of the territorial troops, it was quite "abundantly" staffed with command personnel from among the officers of the Ryazan Guards Higher airborne command school ... and the 11th rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve was declared "airborne" by a simple order of the deputy commander of the GF "Dnepr" General Teplinsky (in the world - the commander of the Russian airborne forces) ... Therefore, these "newly formed MR divisions airborne forces of the Russian Federation "... these are the same" chmobiks "(but, this time - a view from the side ...), which, during their" additional training ", somewhere" stood near the airborne forces "...

 

Neither their organizational structure, nor regular weapons and military equipment, or the peculiarities of the process of their additional training and combat coordination, these formations correspond to the term "airborne", or even "airborne assault" ...

- The main railway stations for unloading in the logistics system of GF "Dnepr" of the enemy, deployed by him in the Southern Operational Zone, were the railway stations - "Kalanchak", "Brilovka", "Novoalekseevka".

For regular and uninterrupted supply of units and formations of the Dnepr Group of Forces with items of logistics (MTO), the enemy actively uses the logistics "hub" in the Dzhankoy area and communications along the route Mariupol - Berdyansk - Primorskoye - Melitopol - Kakhovka, as well as Dzhankoy - Krasnoperekopsk - Armyansk - Brilovka.

The presence in the Armed Forces of Ukraine of high-precision weapons with a range of 80-85 km, capable of REGULAR "total removal" of enemy targets and objects, in all likelihood, in the near future will force the Russian command to move its main points of "storage and transshipment" of logistics cargo in this direction , at least at a distance of 90-100 km from the deployment areas of their advanced units.

I think it is superfluous to explain the consequences of this ... I have already done this ...

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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Turkey's loss of 10 Leo2s in a matter of months to the similar number lost over a decade plus in Iraq.

I believe the US had lost almost double that as k-kills by Q1 2005. Including m-kills we're up around 8x the Turkish losses, with over half a decade of US operations in Iraq still ahead.

That's a wee bit more than 10 in a decade.

Tanks are fragile, yo. Riding a tank beats the pants out of going into combat wearing a cotton shirt, but those things still get broke. A lot.

Edited by JonS
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8 hours ago, MikeyD said:

Germany got something of a bloody nose (by proxy) when all those videos of Turkish Leopard 2s getting smacked around in Syria appeared on the web. One has to wonder if their hesitation to provide tanks to Ukraine has something to do with them fearing to have Leopard 2 outed as a paper tiger.

Well, it's not impossible but I doubt it. Leopard 2 manufacturer KMW should be the one most interested in preventing bad PR. I can't remember (though I didn't follow it closely) them objecting. On the contrary, they wanted to sell 2A7s to Ukraine which would have been delivered in three years or so. That, too, was blocked by the German government which points to something political instead of protecting German arms industry.

Not meant as whataboutism, but I'd still like to know why USA, UK, France or Sweden (whom did I miss?) are so reluctant to deliver their MBTs apart from "Leo 2s are the better choice". (Which is probably true but not a very good explanation from a "results matter" point of view - there has to be another reason). But please let's not derail the thread with yet another fruitless blame game!

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Russians decided to wish us happy new year  - 4 Tu-22M3 and 5 Tu-95 allegedly 20 minutes ago launched missiles in radio silence mode. Maybe its were imitation launches, but air raid alert already proclaimed on about half territory of Ukriane, including Kyiv 

Edited by Haiduk
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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree there is ZERO evidence that Germany doesn't want to put its tanks into Ukraine fearing bad PR (though it is possible, of course),

There is certainly fear of bad PR (even if unspoken). But not in the direction of the tanks not performing, but political PR. When (not if) the first Leo gets destroyed and falls into Russian hands, the Russian PR machine will run the pictures in all gory detail 24/7 for at least a week.
'First German tanks gets destroyed in Russia since WWII' plus pictures of dead Ukrainian tankers = bad PR.
Or even the other way round: 'German tanks again kill Russians - Nazis helping Nazis'. They can probably run that first.

That is the price to pay for delivering Leos to Ukraine and even if it may sound petty to us here, for others it's not. And it's not only the Russian PR - Scholz would also get the backlash from inner German actors. That is not something he can fend off easily. He wouldn't also gain much politically from the delivery, as his supporters mostly don't support the delivery either.

OTOH, if it's an 'European' tank (even of German manufacture) - now we have a different story. Silly, but works like that.

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24 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

As expected - modern tanks are just as vulnerable to artillery fire as older tanks

Morale of crew was too low. They bailed out after mortar shell hit behind their tank.

Tendar little bit wrong. Kraken's video is for mid/end of October, and he wrote about this is the same T-90M, which have been seen in Siverodonetsk several days ago

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Sky over Russian Astrakhan' city about hour ago. Trails of dozen Kh-101/555 in the sky. Russians launched theese missiles usually over Caspian Sea for safety reasons. There are many incidents, when cruise missiles due to malfunctions at initial phase of launch crashed over Russian territory, so launching them over the sea they tried to minimize bad consequences.

 

Edited by Haiduk
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4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

New post from Mashovets. Russia strengthens grouping in the Bakhmut direction

- In the area of the city of Popasnaya, the enemy command, over the past week, concentrated up to 2 BTGr of the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment of the 106th Airborne Division.  I think that within the next 2 weeks, both BTGr will be put into battle.

- In the Bakhmutsko-Soledar direction, the command of the enemy forces also concentrates units of the 7th airborne assault division (up to the 4th-5th armored personnel carrier from the 56th and 108th airborne regiments of this division). It is likely that the enemy will deploy this tactical group of his airborne forces as an operational-tactical reserve 

- In this regard, the fact that the Russian "Dyusantura" is concentrating and deploying right "behind the back" of the assault units of the PMC "Wagner" looks quite revealing and eloquent.

Therefore, I believe that all this "Wagnerian cinematography", which has recently made a big noise in the information sphere, where the Russian NGSh General Gerasimov appears as a "fu...ng devil" and "f ...t", it may well end "giving a kind of Oscar" to the main characters from among the Wagner boys for these uncertain steps in the cinema (I mean the scandalous recording of the Wagner PMC fighters, where they insult the chief of the Russian general staff)

I don’t think that in the event of receiving an appropriate order from their chief of staff, units of the 106th Airborne Division and the 7th Airborne Division will hesitate for a long time before smashing this entire Prigozhin circus to rags ...

And, apparently, they will absolutely not care that "Wagner", that is, Putin's "personal army", which "hangs" under his personal control and care "on the balance sheet" of the Lubyanka ...

Wow. That would be so awesome.

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

- In the Crimean direction, the enemy continues to restore the level of combat capability of units and subunits of the 49th Combined Arms Army (mainly the 205th and 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade), which, in fact, form the basis of his group of forces in this operational zone. Strengthening occurs mainly due to the movement through the territory of the temporarily occupied peninsula of Crimea to the zone of responsibility of the army (the left bank of the Dnieper River) of the newly formed units of the so-called "Territorial troops". Probably, this is done for greater secrecy of the content of the regrouping of troops, as well as its camouflage.

- In order to deploy operational-tactical reserves in the Crimean and Melitopol directions, the enemy command began moving and concentrating 2 "airborne divisions of the mobilization reserve" in this zone ... 44th and 104th airborne divisions.

Who has forgotten, let me remind you ... the formation of these "bastard" divisions of the Russian airborne forces took place on the basis of the Ryazan Higher Airborne Command School, the 242nd training center, and the training centers of the 31st and 83rd airborne brigade ...

The term "bastards" is absolutely not in vain and is accidentally used by the Russian military command itself, in relation to these "formations", because their combat strength (both in quantitative and qualitative terms) and the level of combat abilities, today, raise more questions. than answers...

Judge for yourself...

- The 44th airborne division of the mobilization reserve consists of 2 regiments - the 111th rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve and the 387th MRR of the territorial troops ... What is "airborne" in it is known exclusively to the Russian General Staff and apparently its commander. ..

The 104th air assault division of the mobilization reserve also consists of 2 regiments - the 1044th MRR of the territorial troops and another "mobilization reserve rifle regiment", which was formed and deployed on the basis of the 83rd airborne brigade and is now moving from Ulyanovsk to front (to the Crimean direction) ... its numbering, combat strength and area of concentration are still being established by us ...

By and large, these Russian "paratroopers" are a banal "mobilized infantry". The fact that they were assembled into more or less acceptable military formations on the basis of real airborne units, subunits and institutions ... does not at all make them "automatic" paratroopers themselves ...

Although, of course, the Russian command tried to provide this "mobilization deployment" with a kind of airborne "flair" ... For example, in the process of forming the 387th MRR of the territorial troops, it was quite "abundantly" staffed with command personnel from among the officers of the Ryazan Guards Higher airborne command school ... and the 11th rifle regiment of the mobilization reserve was declared "airborne" by a simple order of the deputy commander of the GF "Dnepr" General Teplinsky (in the world - the commander of the Russian airborne forces) ... Therefore, these "newly formed MR divisions airborne forces of the Russian Federation "... these are the same" chmobiks "(but, this time - a view from the side ...), which, during their" additional training ", somewhere" stood near the airborne forces "...

Neither their organizational structure, nor regular weapons and military equipment, or the peculiarities of the process of their additional training and combat coordination, these formations correspond to the term "airborne", or even "airborne assault"

So barely into the first winter and already the 'elite' Russian forces are being diluted down into indifferently armed mods.

...It took the Germans until what, mid 1944 to start doing this to the SS and Fallschirmjager formations.

...My prediction is that the corpses of Koreans (Norks) are going to start showing up in numbers by February.

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3 hours ago, JonS said:

I believe the US had lost almost double that as k-kills by Q1 2005. Including m-kills we're up around 8x the Turkish losses, with over half a decade of US operations in Iraq still ahead.

That's a wee bit more than 10 in a decade.

Tanks are fragile, yo. Riding a tank beats the pants out of going into combat wearing a cotton shirt, but those things still get broke. A lot.

This “where are the Leo2’s/M1s!!” is like a chronic cognitive yeast infection on this thread.  Does anyone actually still believe that 200 of either of these platforms would sweep the Russians from the field?

If one could get past the integration bill (training, organization and logistics), which is a pretty big hurdle in the middle of a shooting war - “what about the M777 and Pz 2000!?” well integration of a few dozen arty sub-units is one thing, and even with these we know there have been challenges.  Integration of a Bdes worth of armour which has to fight in close cooperation with a Ukrainian military organized very differently than the German or US Army is something else entirely.

But for arguments sake let’s bypass those issues and say in 6-12 months the UA can fully integrate these systems into their current battle order…ok, so what?  Last I checked both the Leo2 and M1 still run on the ground and are vulnerable to mines, which we know the Russians are planting everywhere.  They are big, fat, hot concentrations of steel that even the RA ISR will be able to find quickly.  The RA still has ATGMs last I checked, and a lot of them. And last I heard all western tanks run on gas…a lot of gas, and need ammo and spare parts.  So their logistics system will also be a big target.  In fact a lot of what we have heard and seen on tanks in this war makes little sense in terms of doctrine - “indirect fire role 10kms from the FEBA”, how are western tanks going fundamentally change this?

I get the sense that some still believe that 200 Leo 2’s or [insert my favourite tank from CM] would end this war by next Tues. Well that position is not supported by the evidence we have seen in how this war is being fought.  In fact the cost of a few hundred western tanks could be more than they return on investment at this point.  To wit The_Capt’s prescription for western support:

- give them all the C4ISR 

- give them stuff they can use, right now.

- prioritize supporting the big three - infantry and infantry support, unmanned systems (both offensive and defensive/counters), and precision fires.

- prioritize logistics.

- and once you have got all that, then send in limited complete tactical capability packages that the UA can operationalize.  So we are talking a western tactical system, top to bottom, that the UA can make best use of in how they are waging this war.  One that does not force them to have to shift entirely to a western based doctrinal approach that we have zero evidence would even work.

People want this to be a nice and neat western conventional war, over in a week or two…it is not, that ship has sailed. In fact the few western near-peer conventional wars we have had are terrible parallels to try and draw from for this war.  This is the real deal - brutal, grinding and drawn out.  This does not mean “frozen”, it means attrition is back in play - it is foundational in corrosive warfare. Fast, loose and easy manoeuvre warfare is sitting on the sidelines with a broken nose.  We all need to get used to that idea.

All war is certainty (a vision of how we want the outcome to be…we cannot lose this), communication (it goes slow…then fast), negotiation (what does victory look like?  What does defeat look like?), and sacrifice (what are we willing to pay?).

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17 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yet more speculation about Putin's health.  This from the Danish intel services.  Further, they claim Putin was undergoing hormone treatment for thyroid cancer and that the treatment has a known side effect of causing "delusions of grandeur" and this, in turn, might have played into his thinking that going to war was a good idea.

https://www.businessinsider.com/putins-cancer-drugs-warped-ukraine-russia-decision-making-danish-intel-2022-12

Whatever is really going on with Putin, or not, there seems to be no end to the speculations about his health.

Steve

They need to find the treatment that has side effects of Utter Contriteness and Basic Human Morality. 

But you can't make something out of nothing,, eh.... 

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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

This “where are the Leo2’s/M1s!!” is like a chronic cognitive yeast infection on this thread.  Does anyone actually still believe that 200 of either of these platforms would sweep the Russians from the field?

If one could get past the integration bill (training, organization and logistics), which is a pretty big hurdle in the middle of a shooting war - “what about the M777 and Pz 2000!?” well integration of a few dozen arty sub-units is one thing, and even with these we know there have been challenges.  Integration of a Bdes worth of armour which has to fight in close cooperation with a Ukrainian military organized very differently than the German or US Army is something else entirely.

But for arguments sake let’s bypass those issues and say in 6-12 months the UA can fully integrate these systems into their current battle order…ok, so what?  Last I checked both the Leo2 and M1 still run on the ground and are vulnerable to mines, which we know the Russians are planting everywhere.  They are big, fat, hot concentrations of steel that even the RA ISR will be able to find quickly.  The RA still has ATGMs last I checked, and a lot of them. And last I heard all western tanks run on gas…a lot of gas, and need ammo and spare parts.  So their logistics system will also be a big target.  In fact a lot of what we have heard and seen on tanks in this war makes little sense in terms of doctrine - “indirect fire role 10kms from the FEBA”, how are western tanks going fundamentally change this?

I get the sense that some still believe that 200 Leo 2’s or [insert my favourite tank from CM] would end this war by next Tues. Well that position is not supported by the evidence we have seen in how this war is being fought.  In fact the cost of a few hundred western tanks could be more than they return on investment at this point.  To wit The_Capt’s prescription for western support:

- give them all the C4ISR 

- give them stuff they can use, right now.

- prioritize supporting the big three - infantry and infantry support, unmanned systems (both offensive and defensive/counters), and precision fires.

- prioritize logistics.

- and once you have got all that, then send in limited complete tactical capability packages that the UA can operationalize.  So we are talking a western tactical system, top to bottom, that the UA can make best use of in how they are waging this war.  One that does not force them to have to shift entirely to a western based doctrinal approach that we have zero evidence would even work.

People want this to be a nice and neat western conventional war, over in a week or two…it is not, that ship has sailed. In fact the few western near-peer conventional wars we have had are terrible parallels to try and draw from for this war.  This is the real deal - brutal, grinding and drawn out.  This does not mean “frozen”, it means attrition is back in play - it is foundational in corrosive warfare. Fast, loose and easy manoeuvre warfare is sitting on the sidelines with a broken nose.  We all need to get used to that idea.

All war is certainty (a vision of how we want the outcome to be…we cannot lose this), communication (it goes slow…then fast), negotiation (what does victory look like?  What does defeat look like?), and sacrifice (what are we willing to pay?).

but.. your explanation doesn't allow continued bashing of Germans 😉 

Great post though. Although I suspect the yeast infection will keep lingering and show it's head again in a few pages.

Anyway, happy new year all around the globe, wish Ukraine can finish (win) the war at terms acceptable to Ukraine in 2023!

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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This “where are the Leo2’s/M1s!!” is like a chronic cognitive yeast infection on this thread.  Does anyone actually still believe that 200 of either of these platforms would sweep the Russians from the field?

For sure some people out there think tanks are the most important thing to fuss about.  I sure as Hell don't.  I'd rather Germany give Ukraine another 16x PzH2000 and 500,000x 155mm rounds than 100 tanks.  Or bunch more Gepards and ammo.  Marders?  Yup, those would be useful, so I'd rather have them sent over than Leos.  And if Germany does send Leos, Leo1s would do just fine.

As you said in your post, the flavor of tank is almost irrelevant.  Ukraine has shown NO problem removing Russian tanks from the battlefield, so this is not a capability they need improved.  Maintained?  Yup, make sure they keep getting the ATGMs and tanks of some sort to replace losses.  Expansion?  If Ukraine has the infrastructure to support expanding the number of tanks they can field at one time, then yes that would be a good thing.  But upgrading existing tanks?  Far better things to do.

Ben Hodges just went on a rant about the US not providing ATACMS.  Long range strike capabilities have been a "game changer", so increasing that will have a big payoff.  Air defenses is the other one that needs more effort.  Fortunately, Patriot is now in the mix.

Tanks are still useful in this war.  But so is a rifle.  And boots, helmets, food, etc. are all needed.  But none of these things are going to win the war for Ukraine.  Arguing about what type of tank to send them is about as useful as arguing about what flavor of MREs should be donated.

Steve

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Most heavy aftermath of missile strike in Kyiv - 4* business hotel "Alfavitita". Looks like either direct hit or large part of shot down missile fell and collapsed stairway section. This hotel located close to center of the city and nearby there is Palace "Ukriane" - large concert hall, one of the symbol of Kyiv, where usually there are New-year performances for kids in this time. Reportedly in rear technical rooms of palace windows were broken by shock wave.

Interesting, that this hotel is a former part of military factory "Radar". Acting part of the factory is left from the hotel. Maybe Russians had old info and wanted to hit the factory... Some Russian trolls already write that "NATO instructors lived in this hotel"

Number of victims in Kyiv raised - 1 dead, 11 wounded, among them Japaneese journalist.

 

Edited by Haiduk
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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This “where are the Leo2’s/M1s!!” is like a chronic cognitive yeast infection on this thread.

Interesting that in Ukraine among militaries also not enough entusiasm about Leo2 and M1, though some interest to Leo1. More critical need in armor are IFV and APC. And of course artillery and ammunition. 

Edited by Haiduk
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17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If the past 1800 pages is any guide to the future, I think German bashing will continue without difficulty thanks to Scholz :)

Steve

I guess he has a quite the hate-able face 😉 But indeed he seems like a great example of the plenty of spineless professional politicians around in the EU/democratic world. My own countries politicians are unfortunately not much better, perhaps at spinning stuff to look good internationally.

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