How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Had to post it just for the LOTR reference. I didn't get through the paywall, though the thread gives basic idea about what the Palantir software does.

 

[danfrodo]

I just checked weather for melitopol & kharkiv.  Above freezing every day for a week.  I think this is the only thing saving RU from getting severe defeats and local/sector collapse.  dammit.

[cesmonkey]

Additional info from DoD press release on new US contributions to Ukraine:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3252782/185-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
 

Quote

Under USAI, the DoD will also provide Ukraine with:

45,000 152mm artillery rounds;
20,000 122mm artillery rounds;
50,000 122mm GRAD rockets;
100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition;
SATCOM terminals and services;
Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.

 

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Had to post it just for the LOTR reference. I didn't get through the paywall, though the thread gives basic idea about what the Palantir software does.

 

it is a two-part opinion piece, Here is short bit to describe the practical impact on the battlefield. 

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Two Ukrainian military officers peer at a laptop computer operated by a Ukrainian technician using software provided by the American technology company Palantir. On the screen are detailed digital maps of the battlefield at Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, overlaid with other targeting intelligence — most of it obtained from commercial satellites.

As we lean closer, we see can jagged trenches on the Bakhmut front, where Russian and Ukrainian forces are separated by a few hundred yards in one of the bloodiest battles of the war. A click of the computer mouse displays thermal images of Russian and Ukrainian artillery fire; another click shows a Russian tank marked with a “Z,” seen through a picket fence, an image uploaded by a Ukrainian spy on the ground.

If this were a working combat operations center, rather than a demonstration for a visiting journalist, the Ukrainian officers could use a targeting program to select a missile, artillery piece or armed drone to attack the Russian positions displayed on the screen. Then drones could confirm the strike, and a damage assessment would be fed back into the system.

 

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In our Kherson example, Palantir assesses that roughly 40 commercial satellites will pass over the area in a 24-hour period. Palantir normally uses fewer than a dozen commercial satellite vendors, but it can expand that range to draw imagery from a total of 306 commercial satellites that can focus to 3.3 meters. Soldiers in battle can use handheld tablets to request more coverage if they need it. According to a British official, Western military and intelligence services work closely with Ukrainians on the ground to facilitate this sharing of information.

A final essential link in this system is the mesh of broadband connectivity provided from overhead by Starlink’s array of roughly 2,500 satellites in low-earth orbit. The system, owned by Elon Musk’s SpaceX company, allows Ukrainian soldiers who want to upload intelligence or download targeting information to do so quickly.

In this wizard war, Ukraine has the upper hand. The Russians have tried to create their own electronic battlefield tools, too, but with little success. They have sought to use commercial satellite data, for example, and streaming videos from inexpensive Chinese drones. But they have had difficulty coordinating and sharing this data among units. And they lack the ability to connect with the Starlink array.

 

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When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the U.S. Army had these tools in hand — and commanders with experience using them. Donahue had moved up to become head of the XVIII Airborne Corps, which transferred its forward headquarters to Wiesbaden, Germany, just after the Russian invasion. The 82nd Airborne moved to forward quarters near Rzeszow, Poland, near the Ukraine border.

 

[Huba]

Thanks for posting that @sburke. We keep talking about vastly superior ISR at UA disposal, but this article reveals a bit of how this advantage actually looks like.

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Thanks for posting that @sburke. We keep talking about vastly superior ISR at UA disposal, but this article reveals a bit of how this advantage actually looks like.

yeah the full article is worth a read.  I included a bit about the 82nd as it seems they were the testing ground for Palantir and it is no coincidence that they and the Corp HQ went to Europe when they did.  When evaluating the Western alliance contributions this has to be weighted in there heavily.  Ukraine can use Palantir with commercially available sources and their own ISR capabilities but getting classified NATO info would have to come through XVIII corp.

[tdogg]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

I too spent salad days as a penniless grad student in DC, in '93 - 95; one of the only truly bike friendly cities in the US (in Canada, most cities are).

U street and 'Madams Organ' were the hopping places back then, although I also caught some great live bands (e.g. Social D) at the 930.

Overall, a fantastic city to be young and geeky-but-pretty in. I lived, loved and lost richly!

DC had one of the most epic punk rock scenes in the 80s, created a legacy still celebrated today.  The 930 was like the cbgb of DC.  Discord records is headquartered there and you can still see Ian Macaye randomly around the city.

[pintere]

Apparently Morocco has decided to support Ukraine in this war. Nothing wrong with another source of Soviet era tanks if true. According to the article Morocco will send over 90 T-72s, with a batch of 30 more to follow.

https://www.military.africa/2022/12/morocco-choose-sides-supplies-t-72b-tanks-to-ukraine/

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by pintere

[sburke]

Quote

 

The Senate on Wednesday passed the Justice for Victims of War Crimes Act, which updates the current war crimes statute to enable prosecution of war criminals in the United States, regardless of who was targeted or where the potential war crime occurred. The bill would also extend the statute of limitations for war crimes discovered years after they occur.

The bipartisan legislation, sponsored by Sens. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) and Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa), passed on a voice vote — hours before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was set to address a joint meeting of Congress in his first trip outside Ukraine since Russia invaded the country in February. The House will vote on the bill next.

“The United States should never be a safe haven for war criminals, regardless of where they committed their crimes,” Durbin said on the Senate floor Wednesday.

In a statement, Grassley cited the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the impetus for the bill. Under current law, only people who commit war crimes against a U.S. national or service member can be prosecuted in the United States.

“Russia’s unprovoked and immoral invasion on Ukraine shines a light on the need for this legislation,” Grassley said.

 

From Wash Post

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, sburke said:

From Wash Post

Oh, I like this.  I like this a lot.  I don't think Russians would look to escape to the US anyway, but it certainly is good to close any potential loophole before that theory is put to the test.

Steve

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, I like this.  I like this a lot.  I don't think Russians would look to escape to the US anyway, but it certainly is good to close any potential loophole before that theory is put to the test.

Steve

Nice message right as Zelensky visits too.

[Huba]

Zelensky and Biden are just about to start a press conference:

 

[sburke]

Russian mobile calls, internet seen deteriorating after Nokia, Ericsson leave (yahoo.com)

[Beleg85]

43 minutes ago, Huba said:

Zelensky and Biden are just about to start a press conference:

Travelling, so could not give much attention, but did Biden mentioned about tanks ? Otherwise press conference seem relatively short and not rich in some breaking news, except ofc confirmng Patriots. Crucially Biden confirmed NATO want to sustain war effort, a little pitty his answer was very general to the last question (which was very unspecific in itself, btw.). I expected him to spill something over accidently like he sometimes does, but not.

So nothing groundbreaking but overall things are not seem to be going in wrong direction neither.

[cesmonkey]

A slow and thoughtful interview with a German newspaper reporter on the state of Germany thinking with respect to Ukraine:

 

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian mobile calls, internet seen deteriorating after Nokia, Ericsson leave (yahoo.com)

This is another case where we are not trying NEARLY hard enough. Ericsson and Nokia should just wipe every software dependent piece of equipment in Russia. Moscow wakes up with no phone service to speak of, people who actually matter might think a little harder about this little problem in Ukraine.

[Huba]

Reportedly Rogozin was wounded during strike at a hotel in Donetsk.

 

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This is another case where we are not trying NEARLY hard enough. Ericsson and Nokia should just wipe every software dependent piece of equipment in Russia. Moscow wakes up with no phone service to speak of, people who actually matter might think a little harder about this little problem in Ukraine.

I expect that would be considered an act of war.

[Beleg85]

Ok, so if confirmed (seems legit) this is in turn big news:

Dmitri Rogozhin, former chief of Roskosmos and wice-PM of Russia, is reported to be wounded in the back today in an explosion in hotel in Donetsk. Clip, if indeed showing the event, seem confirming; looks like internal job (meaning exposive material) as roof is intact? So perhaps rather bomb than artillery.

Wouldn't feel comfortable on place of astronauts in ISS. Rogozhin is particulary vile and vangeful guy even up to the standards of Russian state apparatus, nationalist of the "certified by Kremlin" type. It would up to this date highest Russian state official suffering in Ukraine, except military ofc.

Also gauleiter from DPR was reportedly heavily wounded, the guy killed on the clip is his bodyguard.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

From Wash Post

dammit dammit dammit.  Now I gotta shake hands, smile warmly and say thank you to both McConnell and Grassley?  WTF is going on???  Ohhhhhh, this how our gov't is supposed to work, been so long I forgot -- Folks working together across party lines to do the obvious right thing, both morally and for US/world interests.  This is great news that two very powerful GOPers are putting their weight behind supporting Ukraine.

[Billy Ringo]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Russian mobile calls, internet seen deteriorating after Nokia, Ericsson leave (yahoo.com)

Wonder why they didn't leave 6-9 months ago?

[FancyCat]

Rogozhin aside from being a loud idiot at Roscosmos was also Ambassador to NATO from 2008 to 2011.....

 

[sburke]

23 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Wonder why they didn't leave 6-9 months ago?

contractual obligations etc  They had an exemption that many companies were given, but all those run out next week.  Things are about to get harder in Russia.  Though maybe if their mobiles start failing Russians won't give away so much free intel....maybe we should grant these two a further exemption....  

[dan/california]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-stalemate.html

I would simply point out that on 2/23 General Miley was firmly convinced Russia would be in Kyiv in three days. I think there is STILL a portion of the Pentagon, and no doubts some other agencies, that just can't wrap their heads around the actual state of the Russian military.

[FancyCat]

from some lady tweeting from RAND, by way of /r/credibledefense, of the changes spoken about in MoD-Putin conference. Interesting premise, Russia might not reform the way at least most in the West would consider "correct". 

 

 

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Shoygu and Putin provided some updates in a regularly scheduled MOD speech, the MOD Collegium. Shoygu signals changes to the Russian military's force structure are coming. Text below, and some initial reactions /1

Some changes make sense, and others arguably go backwards in time and suggest the General Staff is not learning the right lessons from the war at this point in time. Let's go through the changes in order from "that makes sense" to "??????" /2 

1: with Sweden and Finland joining NATO, the Western Military District will revert back into the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts – like before 2010, as well as an Army Corps HQ in Karelia. This makes sense with NATO expansion, so this change checks out /3 

2: Putin tells Shoygu he will have no funding restrictions and “the country and the government are providing everything that the army asks for” but for the ‘special military operation’ but there’s a catch: Shoygu has to fix the problems, to include mobilization. /4 

If there is anything the last decade and war in Ukraine have shown, Sergey Kuzhegetovich Shoygu is the definitely the wrong person to give a lot of money to and ask to fix the military's problems. He is loyal to Putin so there's that. /5  

3: Create three new vehicle repair and maintenance facilities. This makes sense. Shoygu then throws his predecessor under the bus about that, instead of acknowledging that he’s been in his job for ten years and had ample time to fix it himself /6 

4: Conscription ages changes from 18-27 to 21-30. This is an odd shift. I don’t think it’s related to demographics, unless so many in that 18-21 age group fled Russia in 2022 leaving them in an unexpected bind. I’ll need more time to think this through. /7 

5: 3 new divisions will be created in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Makes sense..but how? From units already deployed there, pulling from strategic reserve of older equipment, moving units from other mil districts, or just not filling them? /8 

6: uh-oh more divisions: convert 7 Ground Forces brigades into divisions , continuing a slow process of rollbacks from the “New Look” reforms. They’ve been doing this slowly for 10 years. The problem is this: they need more people and more equipment to make these units larger /9 

7: more divisions! coastal defense brigades to be converted into divisions. need more people and equipment, both are in short supply. /10 

8: divisions again - the VDV will form two additional air assault divisions. the VDV in 2022 is so severely degraded it will be a struggle to return to prewar levels in the year ahead, but they want to increase it. That will be hard /11 

7: raise contract servicemen numbers to 695,000 of a planned 1.5 million military billets. These numbers may be a goal, but they aren’t realistic, given their casualties, resignations, and what I presume must be recruiting and retention problems for contractniki /12 

8: Shoygu says in 2023 the Russian military will “continue the special military operation until the tasks are fully completed.” open-ended. /13 

What do I take away from this speech? At a workshop this summer, I noted we should not assume the General Staff will learn the correct lessons from the war. Wrong lessons could include a regeneration plan cooked up by parochial interests, and Arbat generals in the General Staff 

The wrong lessons I thought at that time would be things like, letting the Ground Forces continue to dominate all discussions, creating more divisions, more conscripts to recreate something vaguely Soviet…/14 

..instead of understanding the correct lessons for what went wrong – like excessive secrecy and letting the intel services plan the war, poor use of the VKS, and insufficient enablers for precision munitions, and commanders so toxic as to undermine combat capabilities /15 

To me, this speech is a sign the General Staff is learning the wrong lessons and parochial interests are taking over in many ways. Many have hated brigades since they were announced in 2009. /16 

The General Staff concludes they need larger units for high intensity war, and the brigade and BTG do not suit their needs. Part of that is true – the BTG was not designed for this kind of war. /17 

The Russian military was purposefully redesigned in 2009 away from the kind of war it is fighting in 2022 but they didn't fix the force design before the war they chose to launch. /18

Not Built for Purpose: The Russian Military’s Ill-Fated Force Design - War on the Rocks

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a deeply flawed military operation, from Moscow’s assumptions about an easy victory, to a lack of preparation, poor

https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/not-built-for-purpose-the-russian-militarys-ill-fated-force-design/

With nearly half of the Russian Ground Forces estimated to be wounded and killed in 2022, and a major percentage of their active duty armored equipment destroyed (30-50%), they announce they need more soldiers and larger units. /19 

Increases also to tactical aviation: three air divisions, 8 bomber regiments, 1 fighter regiment, six army aviation (helos) brigades. Each Ground Forces combined arms army will have mixed aviation division/brigade of 80-100 helos. /20 

But these plans - bigger units more people --don’t make a lot of sense for Russia’s new reality. With losses of personnel, equipment, and a loss of trust more broadly, they will struggle to make these plans a reality. /21 

TL:DR: these plans are not based on Russia's reality and a lot of folks on the Arbat have a little too much Soviet nostalgia and can't face what has happened on their watch. /end 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2022 by FancyCat