How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

I wonder if there will be something more. I read that US is retiring 2 squadrons of F15s that were based in Japan few years earlier than planned. 

Doubtful. Mind you Patriots are a big deal, it's not something given willy nilly to anyone with cash. Turkey being one of the commonly noted as missing Patriots. That Ukraine gets it is very much a commitment from the U.S to Ukraine now and in the future and is probably expected to be the same commitment from Ukraine to the U.S.

While yes you could in the future cut off ammo shipments, that kind of action looks very bad for foreign relations and would require significant Ukrainian actions that are opposed to the interests of the U.S and just looks real plain bad to everyone.

And these aren't U.S operated, once in Ukrainian hands, it's theirs to point and target and shoot. Patriots are undoubtedly essential for Ukraine to gain what is needed to facilitate the control of the skies or as close as control as possible.

[Huba]

Just now, FancyCat said:

Doubtful.

Agreed on Patriot(s?). 
Regarding jets, as much as I'd like that to happen, I'm also rather pessimistic. More realistically, I'd expect that some kind of ring-swap is in the works, our MoD was hinting multiple times that it isn't done with aircraft acquisitions yet, and there will be something replacing the MiGs soon. Slovakian ones are first on the list I guess, but apart from theirs and ours, there aren't any more Soviet aircraft to pass. Ukraine desperately needs more planes in the air, especially if they are to make reasonable use of the JDAMs.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

It’s quite a big moment in a lot of ways.

First, it’s an undeniable statement about the security of Ukrainian state that the Russian media will be unable to stop themselves from splashing onto every television between Donetsk and Vladivostok. The message will be that it’s evidence of American perfidy with Azov Nazis but what every Russian will still see is that things are going so well for Kyiv that Zelensky can take day trips to Washington. 

It also is having an effect in DC. Zelensky has real charisma and the ability to see and touch him will have a real effect on the politics of Ukraine aid. As above, it also provides tangible proof that aid to Ukraine is working. Americans will see him, see something that our aid has accomplished.

Don’t sleep on this. It’s a big moment for Ukraine and humiliating as hell for Russia.

I’m up the street but I’m sure security will be off the charts. Might take time to swing by the Russian consulate and flip them the bird though. They're going to be having a very bad day.

Edited December 21, 2022 by billbindc

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I’m up the street but I’m sure security will be off the charts. Might take time to swing by the Russian consulate and flip them the bird though. They're going to be having a very bad day.

heh I was a bike courier when Yurchenko redefected to the USSR back in 85 and they were still on 16th street. Had a buddy who was a security guard for the ANA building who had a bird's eye view of the goings on.

[pintere]

Finally got round to making this video. Throughout this year the bravery and skill of the Ukrainian state and military against overwhelming odds has been nothing short of outstanding, and since this war also has so much quality combat footage that wasn’t even remotely possible to create in previous major wars I figured it would be awesome to make an action-packed tribute video for Ukraine’s defenders.

Almost all the source material is combat footage since 24/02/2022. Some of the clips are super iconic and will be well known to all, while others are relatively unknown. I tried my best to include footage from throughout the year and featuring as many of Ukraine’s star performers as possible (biggest gripe is that I couldn’t make any reference to the Moskva sinking). Also, the whole Russian Z vs the Ukrainian + has been kinda fascinating to me, so clips that showed vehicles with those markings were preferred.

Thanks to all the users here who’ve been sharing such footage since things kicked off (especially some of the less famous stuff). This thread has been the source of many of the clips that were used, in addition to just being an awesome way to keep up with war news in general. 

And, of course, a great big salute to all Ukrainians for not only standing your ground against the Russian beast, but also showing it can be pushed back. It’s nothing short of incredible, and history will remember your defiance.

 

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, sburke said:

heh I was a bike courier when Yurchenko redefected to the USSR back in 85 and they were still on 16th street. Had a buddy who was a security guard for the ANA building who had a bird's eye view of the goings on.

So good to finally put a face to the name:

[billbindc]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So good to finally put a face to the name:

Not enough spandex, boa feathers and weed reek. God I loved those guys. Such a subculture. I can't read any fiction about DC in that era because nobody catches things like what Dupont Circle was like at lunch time in 1988. 

[Vet 0369]

On 12/19/2022 at 8:26 PM, Beleg85 said:

Insane clip. Soon helicopters could be equipped with mine plows, they fly so close to the ground anyway.

Yup, they already are. On Mi8s, they’re called “undercarriage or landing gear.”

[sburke]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

Not enough spandex, boa feathers and weed reek. God I loved those guys. Such a subculture. I can't read any fiction about DC in that era because nobody catches things like what Dupont Circle was like at lunch time in 1988. 

dupont and farragut, where the couriers hung out and got stoned. I worked with the guy who was hands down the fastest courier in DC, Justin Gilbert.  We got complaints on the bills for delivery time as they felt there was no way this guy could ride that fast.  He signed up for the foreign legion and had to get his folks to slip into France with a passport so he could get out.  Seems he didn't realize army life is the same everywhere and wasn't up for latrine duty.     

Metro messengers.  Our office was up on Champlain Street.  One block over on 18th was a Jamaican bakery that got me hooked on meat pies.  Fun days.  until it got down in the 30s and was raining.....

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

dupont and farragut, where the couriers hung out and got stoned. I worked with the guy who was hands down the fastest courier in DC, Justin Gilbert.  We got complaints on the bills for delivery time as they felt there was no way this guy could ride that fast.  He signed up for the foreign legion and had to get his folks to slip into France with a passport so he could get out.  Seems he didn't realize army life is the same everywhere and wasn't up for latrine duty.     

Metro messengers.  Our office was up on Champlain Street.  One block over on 18th was a Jamaican bakery that got me hooked on meat pies.  Fun days.  until it got down in the 30s and was raining.....

We 100% know some people in common. Did you know Beaver? Or Kevin Keefe (aka "86")? Also...was the Jamaican bakery by Fish Wings and Tings? That was a hell of a fun time to be 19 and live in DC. 

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

We 100% know some people in common. Did you know Beaver? Or Kevin Keefe (aka "86")? Also...was the Jamaican bakery by Fish Wings and Tings? That was a hell of a fun time to be 19 and live in DC. 

I knew a guy named Beaver, but that was in SF.  My closest courier buddy was a guy named Jim Salt.  He rode a MC till some idiot hit him.  He then switched to van delivery.  Don't remember Fish wings.  It rings a bell of sorts but not sure.  Had a couple friends work in a bar/restaurant over on 19th by Florida that did a comedy and a poetry night.  Went once God-awful worst poetry I ever heard.  My Courier days then got interrupted by.. to quote Anthony Bouvier from Designing Women "my unfortunate incarceration".

I think we have derailed the thread enough.  PM me if you want to chat about DC in the 80s.  I started my telecom career there including a stint at GWU.

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

I knew a guy named Beaver, but that was in SF.  My closest courier buddy was a guy named Jim Salt.  He rode a MC till some idiot hit him.  He then switched to van delivery.  Don't remember Fish wings.  It rings a bell of sorts but not sure.  Had a couple friends work in a bar/restaurant over on 19th by Florida that did a comedy and a poetry night.  Went once God-awful worst poetry I ever heard.  My Courier days then got interrupted by.. to quote Anthony Bouvier from Designing Women "my unfortunate incarceration".

I think we have derailed the thread enough.  PM me if you want to chat about DC in the 80s.  I started my telecom career there including a stint at GWU.

I'll pull it back on track by saying that you'd be surprised how many folks who banged around Adams Morgan in those days are still around and working on things like the fracas happening East of the Dnieper. 

[dan/california]

Would we be seeing this in the overall price of crude? Is there enough slack in the oil market this not moving the needle? Have the Saudis belatedly decided to play nice with Biden and opened the taps? Will hammer Russian income if it holds, obviously.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Chart above isn't displaying the way I want it too, but the price hasn't moved the way you would expect for one to two million barrels coming off the world market.

Edited December 21, 2022 by dan/california

[sburke]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Would we be seeing this in the overall price of crude? Is there enough slack in the oil market this not moving the needle? Have the Saudis belatedly decided to play nice with Biden and opened the taps? Will hammer Russian income if it holds, obviously.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Chart above isn't displaying the way I want it too, but the price hasn't moved the way you would expect for one to two million barrels coming off the world market.

Did you see your PGE notice of rising energy costs and your bill?  I got one.  Not sure that it is at all related to this though as the timing is off.

[FancyCat]

loud. 

 

 

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

Did you see your PGE notice of rising energy costs and your bill?  I got one.  Not sure that it is at all related to this though as the timing is off.

And very little oil is used for electricity. It is quite possible that LNG shipments to Europe are starting to affect the U.S. gas market. Or since the everything I have read is that their is not enough LNG liquefaction capacity to process enough gas to move the U.S. market very much. PG&E is perhaps trying to sneak an increase through while the European issues are in the news. It may figure in there somewhere that PG&E has a laundry list of other problems.

Edited December 21, 2022 by dan/california

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

And very little oil is used for electricity. It is quite possible that LNG shipments to Europe are starting to affect the U.S. gas market. Or since the everything I have read is that their is not enough LNG liquefaction capacity to process enough gas to move the U.S. market very much. PG&E is perhaps trying to sneak an increase through while the European issues are in the news. It may figure in there somewhere that PG&E has a laundry list of other problems.

The notice for electric was the rising cost in natural gas used at PGE plants

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, sburke said:

Did you see your PGE notice of rising energy costs and your bill?  I got one.  Not sure that it is at all related to this though as the timing is off.

Here in New England prices in 2020 and 2021 were down due to a drop off in demand during the pandemic and the related reduced costs for energy generally.  This was already trending upwards before the war started due to greater demand and supply lagging behind it.

My state's utilities are semi-regulated and have to petition the government each year for what they charge customers.  Last year the two companies were approved for a 50% rate hike for the energy supply portion of our bills, but this rate was requested BEFORE the war started.  This year they submitted another 50% request for 2023.  Other states in my area are seeing similar rate increases.  For us the increase is purely from natural gas as oil and coal generation are almost non-existent and we get roughly 70% from renewables.

Heating, on the other hand, is dominated by oil and not electricity.  So the majority are going to pay a lot more for electricity and heating separately.  I'm off grid solar and heat by wood, which means the decisions I made 15 years ago continues to look pretty favorable

Steve

[Kinophile]

Come to Canada my friends. Cheap hydro power and all the snow you can eat. 

[sburke]

28 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Come to Canada my friends. Cheap hydro power and all the snow you can eat. 

which leads to a classic commentary

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heating, on the other hand, is dominated by oil and not electricity.  So the majority are going to pay a lot more for electricity and heating separately.  I'm off grid solar and heat by wood, which means the decisions I made 15 years ago continues to look pretty favorable

Heating with oil is almost totally a New England thing as I understand it. I have lived ALL over the South and West, and have never seen a single oil furnace in my life. I admit it completely slips my mind that a pretty good chunk of the country uses oil, and has even more reason to watch every OPEC meeting with a sense of dread.

[Blazing 88's]

47 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Come to Canada my friends. Cheap hydro power and all the snow you can eat. 

I was going to post Bob & Doug McKenzie with Geddy Lee - 'Take Off'

link...

But didn't Eh.

[Letter from Prague]

It is interesting how half of the internet is seeing Zelenskyy's visit as "this means Ukraine will get some really good support now" and the other half as "this means Ukraine is going to be pushed to sue for peace at current borders now".

We'll see who got it right.

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Come to Canada my friends. Cheap hydro power and all the snow you can eat. 

Your timing is all too perfect over here...

[Taranis]

40 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

It is interesting how half of the internet is seeing Zelenskyy's visit as "this means Ukraine will get some really good support now" and the other half as "this means Ukraine is going to be pushed to sue for peace at current borders now".

We'll see who got it right.

I think as always the truth lies between the two. Zelensky won't have much more support than what is currently expected (nothing major at least, Patriot are already scheduled) and maybe the US will remind them that it would be good if they tried to negotiate but without insisting.