How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Bakhmut's situation is gradually deteriorating, but it is far from grave. It's the standard RU bragging that we're all used to hearing.

These are the consequences of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kherson bridgehead. The Russians released a large number of combat-ready troops and immediately threw them under Bakhmut.

A similar situation was in the spring after the Russian retreat from near Kyiv and Chernigov. Then the situation was even worse - Izum, Popasnaya, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk fell. But in the end, the Russian troops got tired and it all ended in flight from under Balakliya and leaving Kherson

[Offshoot]

Russia has possibly received more UAVs from Iran.

 

[Grigb]

40 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

These are the consequences of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kherson bridgehead. The Russians released a large number of combat-ready troops and immediately threw them under Bakhmut.

That, and mobilization. Overall, it allowed the RU command  to temporarily plug the holes and deploy the most battle capable troops to the direction of Bukhmut, Vuhledar, and Svatove.

As a result, we are seeing some RU development in Bukhmut and Vuhledar, and we should expect something in Svatove, particularly in the Kreminna-Lyman direction.

 

40 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

A similar situation was in the spring after the Russian retreat from near Kyiv and Chernigov. Then the situation was even worse - Izum, Popasnaya, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk fell. But in the end, the Russian troops got tired and it all ended in flight from under Balakliya and leaving Kherson

Indeed, there are signs that the RU is running low on mobilized troops. According to rumors, RU commissariats have been instructed to prepare for the second official Mobilization wave in January. 

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

Russia has possibly received more UAVs from Iran.

 

Thes are the same drones that we were recently told could not fly because it was too cold?

[womble]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

Go home, Ivan, you are too drunk to make believable fakes

Lol. Thanks Grigb. And we're all glad you're still with us, however constrained your posting is. Good luck sorting out RL.

[Grigb]

While parsing Telegram posts found small tactical tidbit about Wagnerite experience fighting at Bakhmut

Quote

Then I cite my Good Friend, who represents the most combat-ready unit to date, the one that literally advances the front lines:
"I'll say it again: we hardly ever fire when lying down!
This is shooting to show off in our conditions since the terrain virtually never enables you to control it from a prone posture.
But we employ bending, sitting, and standing positions all the time.
When a fighter is lying down, you can approach him and throw a grenade without his noticing.
The ability to maneuver, operate with equipment and ammunition is difficult in the prone posture, and at "short" [distance - close to the enemy] loss of time is nearly always critical - means deadly " (c)

 

[Probus]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Sorry for not being present for some time (had, and actually still have, issues in IRL).

The execution video is an LDPR fake. It's an LDPR-style execution - these morons have no idea how actual Soviet-based militaries carry out any types of executions, so they imitate their own mob-like executions.

Apart from that - due to vastly enhanced UKR anti-drone defenses, actual RU drone operators stopped flying like this in August. But here RU operator literally flying over UKR heads for some time, risking extremely valuable asset, just to watch bunch of unimportant UKR troops doing some unimportant stuff. 

Go home, Ivan, you are too drunk to make believable fakes. 

Bakhmut's situation is gradually deteriorating, but it is far from grave. It's the standard RU bragging that we're all used to hearing.

In the north, after months of battering Yakovlivka village (northeast of Soledar), RU eventually flattened it, and it appears UKR defenders abandoned it. It means the Northen pincer is now sort of free and moving. Except that it does not give RU much - without Soledar, they are still a long way from surrounding Bukhmut.

After loss at the Industrial Zone, RU decided to shift the axis of assault to Pidhorne village on the outskirts of Bukhmut (northern outskirts of Bukhmut, between Bukhmut and Soledar). Important village, but aside from several talkes, I have yet to come across credible information, implying that things are not going well for RU there.

The Southern pincer is the most alarming. There are no significant UKR defenses there, so RU is gradually grinding toward Ivanivka. They're probing Klishiivka, the last settlement before Ivanivka. That's bad, but the first part of the Battle of the Bulge was also bad. Essentially, we are waiting a UKR counter-attack aimed at destroying the Southern pincer. Question is how far UKR will let RU penetrate. 

Bukhmut itself is not in grave danger, and there is no threat of it collapsing (yet). Fighting is taking place at the outer defenses, and it is not yet dangerous.

Great to see you back and OK @Grigb!

[Zeleban]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Thes are the same drones that we were recently told could not fly because it was too cold?

 

I wrote about this before

"The Russian forces, apparently, modified the drones to keep them in the minds of the colder weather and, better than everything, the nearest days, more and more often to strike at the Ukrainian critical infrastructure," the analysts write.

[keas66]

With regards the return of Bout - one assumes he will likely be very restricted in his activities now  if he felt like resuming his old profession  and probably feel like he needs to remain in Russia  permanently  .  I mean if he steps outside Russia now .... I for one would have a hellfire or similar waiting for him above .

[Beleg85]

Mobik morale is maybe not the best, but fire discipline seems to be executed swiftly and without unnecessary ceremonies.

Glad you are back @Grigb.

[dan/california]

This highway needs some high explosive attention...

[billbindc]

19 hours ago, womble said:

Except that everything he says is (well, might* be, therefore must be considered) a lie. His Mendaciousnous' words reassure me not at all.

Edit: * At least 50% of everything he ever says is. "Might" is quite a large chunk of probability, here.

Putin is of course entirely untrustworthy but that doesn't mean his statements are not indicative of Russian policy. Remember he's not just talking to us. India, China, Brazil have all been highly concerned with the prospect of nuclear escalation and clearly Russia felt compelled to calm them down. That's good.

[FancyCat]

4 hours ago, keas66 said:

With regards the return of Bout - one assumes he will likely be very restricted in his activities now  if he felt like resuming his old profession  and probably feel like he needs to remain in Russia  permanently  .  I mean if he steps outside Russia now .... I for one would have a hellfire or similar waiting for him above .

He’s been in jail for 10 years, he’s an arms dealer, who thinks he retains enough connections, money, to start up his business? And if he did, it’s likely with Russian government support, meaning if not him, it would have been someone else doing it, making it irrelevant. He was slated be released in 2029, only 7 years later, wait a bit longer and maybe Russia decides Bout can finish the 5 years and says no exchange. 

 

[BlackMoria]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

He’s been in jail for 10 years, he’s an arms dealer, who thinks he retains enough connections, money, to start up his business? And if he did, it’s likely with Russian government support, meaning if not him, it would have been someone else doing it, making it irrelevant. He was slated be released in 2029, only 7 years later, wait a bit longer and maybe Russia decides Bout can finish the 5 years and says no exchange. 

 

Here's a thought - Russian wanted this guy because as a infamous arms dealer, they need him and his connections to get them arms.   Seems obvious to me why the Russians want him now and didn't express much interest a few months ago....

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Here's a thought - Russian wanted this guy because as a infamous arms dealer, they need him and his connections to get them arms.   Seems obvious to me why the Russians want him now and didn't express much interest a few months ago....

"Russian officials have been pushing for a Bout return for over a decade, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aleksandr Lukashevich alleging his extradition was illegal and that the U.S. had been holding him in “unjustifiably cruel conditions.”

From a Forbes article 

They have always been incandescently unhappy the we grabbed him. It just turned out that Griner was the right leverage at the right time to get him back. With relations already in the toilet there was no reason NOT grab the next clueless celebrity that was grabbable and see if they could turn up the pressure up to get it done. Even a year ago that might have caused them more problems than it solved. And when they initially grabbed her they still counting a short victorious war. Getting Bout back was supposed to be a candle on the celebratory cake, not the booby prize in an endless, grinding fiasco.

The bit about "unjustifiably cruel conditions" is beyond satire coming from the Russians...

Edited December 9, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

Another thought that just occured. If the U.S. wanted to get a message more or less directly to Putin I can't think of anyone more likely than Bout to deliver it. 

 

[cesmonkey]

 

Duplicate.

Edited December 9, 2022 by cesmonkey
Dup

[cesmonkey]

Interesting article and twitter thread from journalist Jack Detsch:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/09/military-aid-ukraine-russia-munition-stockpile-shortages/

 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Interesting article and twitter thread from journalist Jack Detsch:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/09/military-aid-ukraine-russia-munition-stockpile-shortages/

 

Sign contracts! Pour concrete!  Order the bleeping machines .And yes the Russian army is not getting back to even its inadequate 2/24 self for a decade!

[Zeleban]

 

[NamEndedAllen]

Chapter 113:, “Why We Never Trust Words From Putin’s Mouth”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-09/putin-says-russia-may-add-nuclear-first-strike-to-strategy
 

[Kinophile]

Poo-tler is a real thing, is my bet. 

 

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

Here's a thought - Russian wanted this guy because as a infamous arms dealer, they need him and his connections to get them arms.   Seems obvious to me why the Russians want him now and didn't express much interest a few months ago....

Arms under the table and under sanctions regimes are a smuggler's specialty, 10 years out of the world, how many of those connections are there that aren't accessible to the rest of Russian intelligence? Infamy is also not the ideal trait for people skirting the law. How many people have seen his face? It's gonna be real hard for him to go get equipment when he's being spotted 3 times over. His specialty was moving arms from Eastern Europe worldwide. I like to see him try that now. Would probably bet that this was more for the PR and for specially making the Biden admin look bad and cause division than anything else.

[JonS]

8 hours ago, keas66 said:

I for one would have a hellfire or similar waiting for him above .

Cool. Extra-judicial assassinations of random and irrelevant people we dont like. Long term peace /definitely/ lies down that road.

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Another thought that just occured. If the U.S. wanted to get a message more or less directly to Putin I can't think of anyone more likely than Bout to deliver it. 

 

How about just picking up the phone? They have a direct hotline. Well, these days it's a special encrypted email link.