How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Ok I think we need to self moderate here because this is getting way off topic.  I recommend everyone who is still interested, read up on European colonization and its effects - there is plenty out there.  

My overarching point is that one cannot uncouple war, disease, famine or economic damage - and going waaay back to the original sub-thread, we were weighing the effect it may have on human evolution.

But lets put a pin in all that and get back to the war in Ukraine.  

Agreed. With the recommendation that you consider that you have inadvertently stretched the concept of war to explain *everything* of consequence and causality, for *every* species on earth. The term war used this way is tantamount to “air”. “They are all *breathing*”! It must be AIR that is causing all our troubles! “No, it is birth!” Everything is secondary to being born!”

Yes, conflict is a feature of life. Yes large scale contact between populations of all species often results in competition over resources and one group prospering (but not always). But culture and evolution are far more complex than the simplistic explanation that all competition of any consequence is reduced simply to a vaguely defined label, “ war”. 
 

Honestly, when the discussion is about the analysis of doctrinal effects in war, and anything related to such, your knowledge trumps anything I might think, even before I think of it! But here, across far too many specialized fields…it’s a bridge too far. And agreed - way off topic!

I yield the floor to everyone else.

[NamEndedAllen]

12 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

And a post too far, my friend

Ref Steve's further up....  

 

 

(don't get me wrong - epidemiological,  societal and environmental impacts on human development are absolutely my cuppa tae!) 

Got it! I was late to the party today.

[Beleg85]

29 minutes ago, poesel said:

AFAIK they tried to talk to the Russians but got no answer.

You can think what you like, that is no treason. But if you refrain from paying speeding tickets because you deny the existence of the state that issued said ticket - then you are in trouble.
And yes, that really happened.

That sound like worst attempt of coup d'etat in serious, developed country since Yukio Mishima stylish suicide in 1970:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDNjK6LnW0Y

[Zeleban]

Mashovets is very productive today.

1. The command of the enemy troops is gradually changing priorities in the use of routes for the supply of supplies for the needs of its group of troops operating in the Starobelsk direction.

Recently, the main communications have been chosen: the route Belolutsk - Novopskov - Starobelsk - Novaya Astrakhan (for a group in the Kremennaya - Rubizhnoye, that is, the Liman direction) and Belolutsk - Novopskov - Starobelsk - Mostiki, as well as Velikotsk - Belovodsk - Starobelsk - Gorodok, that is Kupyanskoye direction), parts of cargo and reserves are also rushing through Belokurakino ...

The route through Troitskoye - Pokrovskoye - Nizhnyaya Duvanka was recognized as "limitedly safe", therefore the enemy uses it only partially and in a special regime (it is required to organize the protection of logistics convoys and combat guards, during the movement of personnel and moving weapons and military equipment units).

2. In the Zhitlovka area, the enemy, using two reinforced companies (probably from the 144th Motor Rifle Division), is trying to organize a battalion defense area in a northwestern direction. The enemy's previous attempts to counterattack towards Yampolevka ended in vain for him.

Finally, two "rifle battalions of the mobilization reserve" of the 1st AK reached the area. Most likely, they will also be deployed with a front to the west, north-west for operations in the direction west of Chervonopopovka and Peschanoe ...

 

Attention is drawn to the fact that the command of the enemy troops in this direction, completely ignoring the situation on their northern flank, which gradually and slowly, but quite confidently, continues to deteriorate for him, stubbornly tries to organize some kind of obscure offensive to the south, towards Torske and Lyman.

 

One out of two:

- or it received an order at any cost and under any conditions to go to the flank of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are now defending in the area of Belogorovka - Grigorovka - Serebryanka ...

 

- or to such actions, bordering on common sense, they are pushed by the hypothetical plan of the Russian command there, which provides for "removing the immediate threat to Kremennaya and Lisichansk by counterattacking on Liman and Seversk"

In both cases, for the Russian strike tactical group, which is constantly trying to break through to the west and southwest of Kremennaya, any attempts to advance on Liman are like trying to stick a limb under a working pneumatic press in the hope of having time to grab a stamping before the press is back on. she will fall...

 

[Zeleban]

3. The military directorate of the Russian group of forces operating in the Bakhmut direction, the military commandant service and military counterintelligence structures received an unambiguous order to suspend cases of "unauthorized abandonment of positions by groups of military personnel, including with weapons ... by carrying out filtration measures and detentions of this kind in \sl in the tactical and operational-tactical rear of the grouping "(c) ...

It is interesting that these instructions were received at the above addresses a week ago (and according to some data, almost a month ago) ... but the mobile mobile teams of the Russian military prosecutor's office, who must draw up all this in the "established order" in accordance with the list of norms and provisions of Russian legislation .... began to form only yesterday ...

In fact, the Russian military command, all this time, had the opportunity to do with its own detained military deserters everything that “hit” it in the head or like it (and apparently ... did it in practice).

Moreover, a suitable "contingent" from among the mercenaries of the so-called "PMCs" generally fell into the category of "permanently disappearing without a trace." The detained "Wagnerites" - deserters, or those who turned around in the rear, avoiding their real participation in hostilities under any reason, were not taken into account at all and did not count ... The situation became even more "grotesque" when they began to massively import into the combat zone " prisoner" PMC personnel under escort ... It is obvious that some of these convicted "patriots" ran away corny and rushed into the depths of Russia ...

4. During the current and previous week, the enemy command in the Melitopol direction was intensively transferring building materials, housing modules, reinforced concrete barrier structures to the Tokmak area, to the west and east of it, and intensively arranged several defense areas at once in certain areas, focusing on engineering and fortification work.

In particular, no less than 12 large convoys with the above materials and structures have passed through the Melitopol region to the north over the past 6 days. The Russians carry there everything that is necessary for arranging defensive positions ... from boards and in general - wood and concrete gouges, to residential modules and tanks.

By all indications, the Russian command is quite lively creating in the areas of Vasilyevka, Tokmak, south of Polog and near Chernigovka, several defense areas at once outside the range of the bulk of the field artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

[Zeleban]

If you mention the so-called PMC Wagner, then you must write correctly and to the point ... "a military formation of the federal security service ..." and Prigozhin, in this context, should be mentioned exclusively as a "painted curtain" ... .

That's right, Lubyanka got its own, "independent" army in Russia ...

For what and why .... these are completely different questions ...

[Haiduk]

An article (in Ukrainian) how Ukrainian volunteers-engineers from Respeechers and i3 Engineering companies and programmers, serving in 125th TD Brigade, created AI warning system ZVOOK (from UKR. "zvuk" -  "sound"). This system allows to complement possibilities of Air Defense radars to detect approaching missiles and kamikadze drones - it's sound sensors listen the air, select suspicious sound, AI analyzes it and if the signal is matches to threat sound, it transmits alarm via cell phones towers to Air Defense datacenters. By the placement of activated sensor,  AD can decide to react on that direction. 

This system had been developing four months and was set up immediately after AI could detect true signal at 50/50 level - because we had a lack of radar covering - on the meeting develppers with Lviv oblast administration, representatives of cell phone operators and militaries they got permission to launch the first trial systems. Gradually engineers enchanced sound mirrors, electronics and could learn AI to work almost without mistakes. Interesting, that most problematic was to learn AI to differ a sound of cruise missile from cows mooing.

In present time 40 ZVOOK sensors already installed on more critical directions, but developers say there are need 600 sensors throughout all country in several echelones to be effective complement of radars. In plans of developers - to make the system capable to determine a coordinates, speed and course of target. Now it can determinate approximately a bearing and elevation angle. Also developers want to scale the project and turn it in future to commercial product.

 https://www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2022/11/28/694314/

 ZVOOK sensor on cell phone tower

And "prototype" of ZVOOK - Dutch soldier of 30th years with acoustic system. But now human ears and brain substituted with electronic and AI

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[Fenris]

ATGM miss and then a hit.  By the look of it one is direct fire and the hit is top attack.

 

[chrisl]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

An article (in Ukrainian) how Ukrainian volunteers-engineers from Respeechers and i3 Engineering companies and programmers, serving in 125th TD Brigade, created AI warning system ZVOOK (from UKR. "zvuk" -  "sound"). This system allows to complement possibilities of Air Defense radars to detect approaching missiles and kamikadze drones - it's sound sensors listen the air, select suspicious sound, AI analyzes it and if the signal is matches to threat sound, it transmits alarm via cell phones towers to Air Defense datacenters. By the placement of activated sensor,  AD can decide to react on that direction. 

This system had been developing four months and was set up immediately after AI could detect true signal at 50/50 level - because we had a lack of radar covering - on the meeting develppers with Lviv oblast administration, representatives of cell phone operators and militaries they got permission to launch the first trial systems. Gradually engineers enchanced sound mirrors, electronics and could learn AI to work almost without mistakes. Interesting, that most problematic was to learn AI to differ a sound of cruise missile from cows mooing.

In present time 40 ZVOOK sensors already installed on more critical directions, but developers say there are need 600 sensors throughout all country in several echelones to be effective complement of radars. In plans of developers - to make the system capable to determine a coordinates, speed and course of target. Now it can determinate approximately a bearing and elevation angle. Also developers want to scale the project and turn it in future to commercial product.

 https://www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2022/11/28/694314/

 ZVOOK sensor on cell phone tower

And "prototype" of ZVOOK - Dutch soldier of 30th years with acoustic system. But now human ears and brain substituted with electronic and AI

 

A really nice feature of this is that it’s passive detection and so it won’t be sensitive to anti-radiation missiles, especially if the cell transmitter is moved away from the acoustic sensors and connected via cable.

 

 

[Haiduk]

UKR pilot with codename KARAYA issued own photo from incident on 12th Oct over Vinnytsia, when he is wounded and in process of parachuting after bailing out of own MiG-29, damaged by close explosion of Shakhed, which he could destroy, but has flew too close. 

A guy from engineer personnel told, KARAYA made this selfy and sent to them with words "Guys, you can not wait my jet today back"

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Agreed. With the recommendation that you consider that you have inadvertently stretched the concept of war to explain *everything* of consequence and causality, for *every* species on earth. The term war used this way is tantamount to “air”. “They are all *breathing*”! It must be AIR that is causing all our troubles! “No, it is birth!” Everything is secondary to being born!”

Yes, conflict is a feature of life. Yes large scale contact between populations of all species often results in competition over resources and one group prospering (but not always). But culture and evolution are far more complex than the simplistic explanation that all competition of any consequence is reduced simply to a vaguely defined label, “ war”. 
 

Honestly, when the discussion is about the analysis of doctrinal effects in war, and anything related to such, your knowledge trumps anything I might think, even before I think of it! But here, across far too many specialized fields…it’s a bridge too far. And agreed - way off topic!

I yield the floor to everyone else.

Ok, well I can’t let this one bounce because it does relate directly to the war we are seeing - war as a concept. 

There are many schools of thought on this, some very narrow and other very broad.  The narrow give advantage of specifics that lead to solid principles and doctrine - problem is when conflict goes off their maps.  For example Clausewitzian definitions start to fall apart within intra-state conflict and below - the larger issue is that inter-state is connected to infra-state.  So Clausewitz begins to fray in certain contexts and loses the benefits of its specificity - and we fall into the decisive battle trap etc.

Broad schools, to which I subscribe, see war as a fundamental part of human social interaction.  It cannot be nicely compartmentalized into a discrete phenomenon as it is entangled too deeply in human social discord throughout history (and pre-history).

For example, to say war is not connected to disease is factually untrue.  There is ample evidence that disease spreads as a direct result of warfare, and spread far beyond what it normally would have without war propelling mass numbers of people across great distances.  In fact only recently have combat deaths exceeded those from disease within combatant populations.  I mean seriously just Google “war and disease” and tell me what you see.

Economies, as we have seen in this war, are also directly impacted.  As is culture, and apparently generational trauma at an epigenetic level.  Famine, due to loss of manpower and forced migrations/loss of agriculture production -this war is impacting food security in Africa right now.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/06/13/climate-disasters-collide-with-ukraine-war-deepen-hunger-crisis/  I mean c’mon this isn’t stretching in the least.

You are mocking but warfare is a secondary effect of “being born” because it is integral to being human.  It is arguable that next to sex, war/conflict/organized homicide has been central to our species from the beginning.  I am not sure how many sources I would need to prove this point but the “modern definition of war” is not modern in the least.  It pre-dates the agricultural age and rise of civilization.

How can an activity this broadly impactful and deeply rooted not span so many specialized fields?  Humans wage warfare where resources have nothing to do with the equation - plenty of historical evidence of this, including the war in the Ukraine.  We do it because it is a collision of collective fictions. You note that race is largely a fiction - based on genetic evidence you are correct.  The collision between Ukraine and Russia is entirely the fiction of one man surrounded by a group of other yes- men who believe in their fiction so hard that they have dragged entire nations (another fiction) into this thing.

So what?  Well the broad school offers something the narrow cannot - a broader picture of war to pull link between cause and effect.  In doing so allows for broader strategies - however they are all custom and cannot be easily transposed from one war to the next.

The breadth of impact of this war is enormous as are its causes and factors that influence its outcomes.  If you choose to adhere to the narrow schools of thought on warfare - well good luck to you.  You will likely be able to create accurate predictive frameworks - so long as they stay within the established lines.  Or you can expand your view to the broad schools that pull in a lot more cross-cutting factors.  Given the historical evidence, I am not sure where to draw that line between what is war and what is…well whatever one wishes to somehow call “less than war”…we have been down that road far too often lately.

Regardless, in the future as we continue to analyze this war, the narrow school is going to collide with the bars of its cage, it already has, and when it happens we can come back to this and discuss.

I would close with the recommendation that you have not stretched you personal concept of war far enough and it is risking blind spots and map edges that may be worth exploring.  War is not about “every species on earth” it is inherently human, however in that is spans almost every facet of humanity - I challenge you to find one that has not been impacted.  

Edited December 7, 2022 by The_Capt

[Harmon Rabb]

Time magazine names Ukraine’s Zelensky as ‘clear-cut’ Person of the Year

 

[Offshoot]

Putin speaks - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/07/vladimir-putin-says-russias-war-on-ukraine-could-be-long-term-process

-Says the war could be a long-term process
-Denies planning for more mobilization
-Denies mass desertions in the army
-Says Russia would not use nuclear weapons first

[kevinkin]

22 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Time magazine names Ukraine’s Zelensky as ‘clear-cut’ Person of the Year

Least we forget:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-time/putin-is-time-magazines-person-of-the-year-idUSN1956834820071219

I could not bring myself to post his pornographic photo on a family site. For mature audiences only. Rated LLL. Loser Loser Lose. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Mashovets is very productive today.

Yes, very!  And you have been just as productive bringing this to us here

Of course I found this most interesting:

"unauthorized abandonment of positions by groups of military personnel, including with weapons ... by carrying out filtration measures and detentions of this kind in the tactical and operational-tactical rear of the grouping "

I just posted a report of the barrier unit slaughtering two dozen mobiks trying to get back to Russia.  There was also a mobik that shot up some police in Rostov a few days ago.  Then there's yet more intercepted calls where soldiers are saying that everybody has buggered off.  One that I listened to today said that living conditions were horrid and that every day a few more men disappeared along with their weapons.  When a unit has an officer, the officer seems to be well to the rear so doesn't know anything about what is going on with his soldiers.

As the quality of the Russian soldier has declined, the difficulty of keeping them fighting has increased.  It's now gotten to the point where entire units are simply melting away over time or are getting up and leaving their positions en mas.

Good

The other theme through Mashovets' posts is that Russia is not using mobiks for defensive operations, but as a main component of assaults on Ukrainian positions.  We've seen some reports of this in the Bakhmut area, however it was difficult to tell if that was a Wagner thing or more widespread.  Looks like it is more widespread.

Good!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

A really nice feature of this is that it’s passive detection and so it won’t be sensitive to anti-radiation missiles, especially if the cell transmitter is moved away from the acoustic sensors and connected via cable.

I think that's the case.  Certainly this acoustic sensor looks like he's been connected via a cable in an uncomfortable, but obvious, part of his body

Seriously though, that is yet another sign of why Ukraine will win this war.  Creativity and determination, coupled with technology.  Like taking a selfie when parachuting from a destroyed plane.

Steve

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I just posted a report of the barrier unit slaughtering two dozen mobiks trying to get back to Russia.  There was also a mobik that shot up some police in Rostov a few days ago.  Then there's yet more intercepted calls where soldiers are saying that everybody has buggered off.  One that I listened to today said that living conditions were horrid and that every day a few more men disappeared along with their weapons.  When a unit has an officer, the officer seems to be well to the rear so doesn't know anything about what is going on with his soldiers.

more confirmation bias for me.  

What happens when the disconnected officer, multiple miles back in comfort, believes (or at least reports) that his sector is just fine.  Then it gets hit by UKR and there's nearly nothing there.  And the mobiks who left the front line for better accomodations a mile or so back are suddenly confronted w UKR assault.  Sound like panic and breakthrough to me.  This is what I think is going to happen as winter degrades these kidnapped 'soldiers'.

[NamEndedAllen]

Not the best news out of the USA public, but still an overall majority of Americans favor support even if that has declined.

“WashingtonCNN — 

Americans still strongly back the US providing aid for Ukraine’s fight against Russia, but there has been a decline in support amongst Republicans as some prominent GOP politicians and media figures express opposition to the US providing additional support to Kyiv, a new poll has found.

In the latest poll, 33% of Republicans agreed with that prolonged support, compared to 61% of Democrats and 46% of independents. 

The level of support among Republicans for the US giving military aid has also declined: 55% were found to be in favor compared to 68% in July and 80% in March. Similarly, 50% of Republicans backed the US giving economic assistance, down from 64% in July and 74% in March.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/us-support-ukraine-aid-russia-poll/index.html

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Not the best news out of the USA public, but still an overall majority of Americans favor support even if that has declined.

“WashingtonCNN — 

Americans still strongly back the US providing aid for Ukraine’s fight against Russia, but there has been a decline in support amongst Republicans as some prominent GOP politicians and media figures express opposition to the US providing additional support to Kyiv, a new poll has found.

In the latest poll, 33% of Republicans agreed with that prolonged support, compared to 61% of Democrats and 46% of independents. 

The level of support among Republicans for the US giving military aid has also declined: 55% were found to be in favor compared to 68% in July and 80% in March. Similarly, 50% of Republicans backed the US giving economic assistance, down from 64% in July and 74% in March.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/us-support-ukraine-aid-russia-poll/index.html

https://morningconsult.com/2022/11/29/united-states-foreign-policy-expectations-democrats-republicans/

Committed partisans will of course see whatever they want to see here, but I find these forced ranking exercises interesting, as a general 'world view' emerges.

Of course, it's also heavily influenced by the choices provided and the specific wording of these choices.  Notice some are very specific 'upholding, securing, preventing', others are kind of vague: 'US-China relations'

Edited December 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Putin speaks - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/07/vladimir-putin-says-russias-war-on-ukraine-could-be-long-term-process

-Says the war could be a long-term process
-Denies planning for more mobilization
-Denies mass desertions in the army
-Says Russia would not use nuclear weapons first

More evidence of how utterly vacant the average Russian's mind is.  Or their soul.  Or both.

Putin just admitted that he's been lying to his people for more than 8 months that the war has been going swimmingly.  Absolutely nothing truthful about how this has cost Russia so many lives, economic distress, and being cut off from the world.  Not to mention the crackdowns on the ability to criticize the government, receive payments due for military death benefits, etc.  And now Putin is saying this is going to keep going on for quite a long time while also having to deny that the army is deserting.

Wow.  I mean, I know this is the reality for Russians, but still... wow.

Steve

P.S. note I didn't mention anything about them wondering what the point of the war is or what it is doing to Ukraine.  Not relevant in their minds, so why bother pointing it out?

[LongLeftFlank]

 

For those with time, an entertaining memoir of the chaotic early days of the Foreign Legion by 'Big Mac', a cheerful British volunteer whose nonmilitary background is in rock festivals. He served 7 months (less 4 weeks away with Lyme disease) as an ADC to the company CO, mostly in a swampy area east of Kharkiv.

First 20 minutes he rambles about the Day 3 missile strike on the foreign base, which you can skip if you like*. The last 5 is Lindybeige doing the necessary sponsor promos, so the meat of it is about 20 minutes. Cliff notes here....

• 23:00 The Duty Experience: 'If you're fighting the Russians, you're mostly in a muddy hole getting horribly shelled. There is no sweet spot. It isn't Call of Duty.' 
• About 700 of 1000 volunteers either went home or found other units. A lot of the Western stanbox vets couldn't handle the mortar stonks ('Goldilocks soldiers'). 
• American non-vets were often better than the Army guys. 'We don't get air support mate...'
• Few guys brought much in the way of kit; they expected it all to be provided.
• Casevac was initially on foot to a civilian car, weather conditions. Nobody gets 30 minute casevac, it's more like an hour or two.
• Rifles maybe account for 1% of the killing; it's all HE.
• Overall he doesn't have very much good to say about the Ukrainian officers. A lot of ex-Soviet inefficiency in their procedures, and also a lot of nepotism and corruption; 2 trucks of modern small arms went missing.
• USMC vet and businessman became the platoon leader.
• A lot of the self-described special operators were weeded out early on Boy Scout level basic woodcraft.
• A lot of Western militaries don't issue mess tins anymore.
• Nobody in A'stan had to light a fire or gut a goat.
• Be grateful we have wet wipes. Richard would have won the Crusades with them.
• Covid and Flu was rampant in the spring.

* One interesing bit: the Russians may simply have useed the large concentration of foreign simcards to locate and target the base, rather than having spies on the inside.

Edited December 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

On 11/30/2022 at 8:30 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

What an epic human being!!!!  76 year old USNA grad, intel/specops in Vietnam and Kurdistan (and Gawd knows where else).  Practical expertise in EOD, NBC and EW, and has been employing all those skills at the sharp end with a SpecOps recon squad in Ukraine since March (Irpin, Popasna, Bakhmut, Lyman, Kreminna).

As a lesser mortal, I have a rare down day (traveling), so I just read through it all from the beginning. My key notes/quotes are embedded above.  Direct from the front lines, a lot of the same trends that have been being discussed here.  Highly recommended.

Ukraine has used troops as very effective, quasi-spec ops units even without the involved training. Technological advances, combined with what might be seen as a downgrade in C&C, add considerably to capabilities, especially AT. The UA had little choice but to do so in a battlefield that was fragmented and fast moving from the start. Yooks are good at force spreading, mainly to prevent artillery losses. Their early successes gave them a high level of trust in what “islands” of forces not under full control could achieve. They decided early on that this type of structure would work very efficiently against the somewhat lumbering doctrine of the Russians. 

Generally it is a combination of very efficient communication based on parallel, real-time reporting, simulcast information from drones and a low level command structure that is selectively aware of the battle planning. We have seen in Ukraine the implementation of these tools at a lower level, even at a partisan level. The Russians do not seem capable of instituting the same structure. 

We are droning them to death, taking-out personnel and either destroying, damaging or forcing abandonment of vehicles and armor. Often the same drone that finds something also destroys it. Drones are largely being democratized throughout the UA force structure. 

Fixed stuff is dead. Slow stuff is dead. Moving stuff without overhead detection and defense is dead. A drone you cannot hear or see can watch your every move, and deliver kinetics or call them in.

UA is integrating tactical drones and precision artillery with US satellite data, which is levels above what the Russians have. This gives them a battlefield view that is both precise and deadly. In addition, they can better plan their logistics for a battle, and can stunt the Russian supply lines. The Yooks are getting positional info on company level elements.

The UA has managed to get quite adept at deciding the Russian’s options for them. More like, they are planning the Russian’s mistakes, and then forcing them to make them. They are doing a lot of stunts to try to drive Russian forces into areas where they can more easily be dealt with. Lot of variable ground here, forest, fields and some high ground. They are either trying to channel them into an area blocked from all sides to kill, or to wait-out and force a surrender. They are also not firmly committing their forces to one specific area, which keeps their option for mobility and quick reaction to changing events open

Breaking interconnections between Russian units is key to killing their ability to launch an effective offensive. Out in the open, the Russians don’t seem to be able to survive against the Yook’s mobility and back area limiting of their supply routes. Trying to supply a mobile force takes a lot of planning and mobility in itself. They have to hunker down in order to fight. If you can reach into and behind fixed defensive positions, they have no viability and become temporary positions you will have to fall back from. That is why you have to stay on the offensive.

They are trying to hide in some locations. We also noted they are working per doctrine to build defensive lines, three to four elements deep. But, they don’t seem to realize that they are fighting a 3-dimensional war, and if they cannot cover their top and rear and flanks, they will die…in fact, if they cannot project force forward and to their flanks, their defensive positions will wither against a highly mobile force working in multiple dimensions. Fixed defensive positions have always been vulnerable, but now more than ever, you have to project force to defend that position. 

Russian tanks are mostly fodder. Any kind of launch system, even APCs, are a higher priority target. Roving teams with AT (anti-tank) weapons, a bit of balls and drone support are taking them out almost at will. Present AT is portable enough that in a five man crew, we always try to carry two. We don't have a dedicated Javelin gunner as we can all use them. At first, I was the only one with Stinger experience, but they are easy to learn to use too. We usually carry just one. Tanks, more than wheeled vehicles are noisy and leave a very obvious trail that drones can see, follow, and pinpoint. Tanks hiding in the forest tend to keep their engines running (for quick escape and it is cold), which creates a thermal bloom that is obvious.  

If the Russians had used traditional (and doctrinal) infantry support of armor it would have increased the stand-off distance for Yook AT guys, but unless wide ranging and combined with forward (and rear:) recon, infantry will not defeat man-portable kinetic drones.

Large numbers with flank protection is the future of the tank, or with US style air cover to first shape the battlefield. The Russians never had that opportunity here. The Yooks generally control the air based on drones and ground forces with fairly cheap weapons, and the integration of those assets. Detection and defeat of drones at a lower military unit level is key to adapting. Drones themselves will be what detects and defeats both man-portable AT and drone antiarmor systems.

The Russian armor is moving too fast to target accurately, and is in a practical sense, being used as mobile artillery. Armor is outpacing infantry, and infantry is doing a lot of ducking and hiding. The Yooks range killing fire into their rear support elements, which gives front-line Ivans a sense of unease that they have a less safe place to retreat to, as well as messing up logistics. We then have the AT means to thin them out before they pull off a total retreat.

Another thing that is going on with the Russians is the direct embedding of Spetsnaz into infantry groups. That is fine, but they lose their main purpose, which is mobility, fast assault and ability to separate from the enemy. They become cannon fodder like everyone else. 

They kept moving small units forward, 20 – 50 troops at a time, more like probing actions than a real attack. Every time they moved on us we unloaded on them and they would fall back, leaving guys dead or wounded. A least half of them appeared to have been killed by the hail of 82mm mortar fire. Yook artillery finally got a solid position where they were staging. If they would have sent enough of them, and they had fire discipline they could have caused us some trouble. One also has to consider their command competence here. The Russians will learn and will likely try to change, but in practice, can they do so?

The Yooks are very good at using tanks as damned accurate artillery pieces. It seems they have retrofitted tanks with laptop computers to pull target solutions.

The weather will open-up some opportunities for fast tempo attacks, especially on units degraded by the weather and on the defensive. Keeping-up probing attacks, ambushes and fires to supply lines is critical. 

The killing is going to increase dramatically, especially in the winter. The Yooks have no plan to back-off. This is where technology and equipment will prevail. Cut-off their supplies, their escape, and lock them in-place with substandard kit, and kill them with every means available, but primarily heavy guns and ordnance. Those that don’t die kinetically, freeze or starve.

Winter will hinder the Russians much more than it will us. The Yooks have offensive capabilities that are not weather dependent, and I can guarantee the Russians will tend to bunch-up to shorten their supply lines. They will likely hunker down more into static positions, and by that time, we should have enough long range kit to make their existence a living hell. They will be starting fires, or trying to using wet wood and fuel from their vehicles, which will show on thermals. They will also be in groups for warmth and that false feeling of moral support you get when other humans are close, even when you are all in the same process of dying. They will be in vehicles with engines running…noise, sound, a thermal signature, with no outside cover to warn them of a roving team with AT. We can detect them by smelling food cooking. Troops eating at the same time are less alert. About 30 mins after a meal people get sleepy. 

The reality is it does not normally get horrendously cold in the east, the record being like -15F, and in January an average in the high teens. The problem is the freeze/thaw cycles which means you get wet then you freeze. So, is really about managing body temp and trying to stay dry. A point here though, it does not have to get terribly cold to kill you if you are not prepared.

We will be needing 5000 – 6000 calories to keep warm. We have one-man bivvy shelters, a ground cloth and decent sleeping bags. Once the ground freezes this will have to do. When bedded down, keep weapons and ammo away from body heat. Icing is a major problem for both helo and fixed wing drones, and battery power can be greatly reduced…I have heard by up to 70%.

Mission structure is largely based on working in heavy forests, rivers and swampy areas….although doctrinally it is generally applicable to most areas, and is not much changed in the 50+ years I have been doing this stuff… albeit on an on-and-off basis. The big difference maker is drones. Not only are they a large part of our intel resources, but also constitute our air support and counter-targeting requirements. However, in the areas I am talking about here, drones are not as effective. The Russians are using the forests and swamps to hide forward supply dumps, CPs and troop combat support and rest areas. The tracks are obvious, but then you draw a lot of blanks with overhead surveillance, so you have get some feet on the ground. 

We tend to go small. Small is quieter, has less of a physical signature, and more importantly, is highly mobile. In this environment, mobility means survivability.

We got chewed by air earlier on, not so much now. In this area, almost every outfit has some AA.

Part of the inherent risk is mines – although they will usually be in relatively dry areas or very shallow water. Another is local recon teams, although they tend to stay close to home. [With one group] we noticed they did not keep a point and drag, just a single file several feet apart. We mined (MON-50s) a trail that they used every outing to return home. I wired the mines in series about 10 feet apart, ten feet off the trail so the blast and fragment paths would overlap at the center….and the system attached to a breakwire. 

With time and some effort, any mine field can be cleared by deactivation, picking and moving, or blown in-place. But it's very hard to do that even under minimal covering fire, especially artillery.

There are places where they will have to use the roads. Those are mined, as are the field approaches. God help anyone who uses the ditches for cover. We planted over 5000 lbs of linear explosives wrapped with nail gun belts. 

We only move at night, and are well equipped with thermals to keep track of equipment, humans and even with some limited success, drones. Here, reduction of the muzzle flash is more important than any reduction in sound signature. We of course stay away from trails, which are kinda rare here anyway. 

Natural reflectivity and shine is a killer. Flat black spray paint and dirt is the cure. Multi cam, if NIR (near-infrared), is generally a good compromise here. I don’t really care much for hanging bush on me, it exaggerates movement too much; ok in a hide. 

Thermal is the real problem. It is very hard to avoid. In a hide, get behind stuff that is also sorta warm, and a heat reflective blanket covered by a wool blanket is somewhat effective. The Taliban used that method in Afghanistan. Wool is an amazing material. But, on the move…hard to protect against.

I have no idea why, but in these stressful situations, if you keep your eyes on someone long enough, they seem to sense it. I know that sounds crazy, but it was a thing that was passed along in Vietnam.

We went in as far as we could in an SUV, then humped it the rest, at night. Carried the heaviest loads to date, over 100 pounds each. We did manage to get fuel, simply by stopping at an open service station. We had to pool money to get the tank full, and we kept a careful eye on the owner

We managed our first fully successful supply run by quadcopter drones. Magazines and food...one of the drones can carry ten fully-loaded AK mags

A little more up to date, latest dispatches from the grizzled polymath Ukrainian Volunteer.

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/12/02/they-were-on-their-way-toward-a-significant-encounter-assuming-they-kept-moving-the-same-direction/

Lot of heavy combat going on around Kreminna…looks like the work we did in the forest of Endor will finally get a chance to be judged on effect. The aim was to wire the place, and make it a dangerous place for Russians to hang-out.... The ground is froze on top, but not yet deep, but heavy equipment can roll on it now pretty well.

One good thing about winter is you don’t smell so much after a bit of a trek, but, I certainly don’t smell like the inside of a supermodel’s purse either… []

Noise discipline very important in this weather….if not for the breeze, you could hear a cigarette lighter snap at 50 yards.

Bonus

From a pro-Russian feed... 

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[FancyCat]

Thanks for providing that interview link, you reminded me about the Kyiv Independent's expose on the Foreign Legion.

Part 1 was in August, Part 2 just released basically. Tldr, the foreign legion needs complete command sacking and reform, it's corrupt, treats personnel like trash, and is actively harming the ability of the legion to be a capable force. Interesting that the interview above, he says that people went to other units rather than remain in the foreign legion. Maybe this is largely isolated to the legion, and can be handled easier as a result.

Hopefully this gets the government to kick the command in the teeth.

https://kyivindependent.com/investigations/investigation-international-legion-misappropriation

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

For those with time, an entertaining memoir of the chaotic early days of the Foreign Legion by 'Big Mac', a cheerful British volunteer whose nonmilitary background is in rock festivals. He served 7 months (less 4 weeks away with Lyme disease) as an ADC to the company CO, mostly in a swampy area east of Kharkiv.

First 20 minutes he rambles about the Day 3 missile strike on the foreign base, which you can skip if you like*. The last 5 is Lindybeige doing the necessary sponsor promos, so the meat of it is about 20 minutes. Cliff notes here....

• 23:00 The Duty Experience: 'If you're fighting the Russians, you're mostly in a muddy hole getting horribly shelled. There is no sweet spot. It isn't Call of Duty.' 
• About 700 of 1000 volunteers either went home or found other units. A lot of the Western stanbox vets couldn't handle the mortar stonks ('Goldilocks soldiers'). 
• American non-vets were often better than the Army guys. 'We don't get air support mate...'
• Few guys brought much in the way of kit; they expected it all to be provided.
• Casevac was initially on foot to a civilian car, weather conditions. Nobody gets 30 minute casevac, it's more like an hour or two.
• Rifles maybe account for 1% of the killing; it's all HE.
• Overall he doesn't have very much good to say about the Ukrainian officers. A lot of ex-Soviet inefficiency in their procedures, and also a lot of nepotism and corruption; 2 trucks of modern small arms went missing.
• USMC vet and businessman became the platoon leader.
• A lot of the self-described special operators were weeded out early on Boy Scout level basic woodcraft.
• A lot of Western militaries don't issue mess tins anymore.
• Nobody in A'stan had to light a fire or gut a goat.
• Be grateful we have wet wipes. Richard would have won the Crusades with them.
• Covid and Flu was rampant in the spring.

* One interesing bit: the Russians may simply have useed the large concentration of foreign simcards to locate and target the base, rather than having spies on the inside.

Thanks for the summary.

For me, the biggest disappointment in the Ukrainians so far has been mishandling all of the foreign volunteers coming at their own expense to fight the Russians.  I've seen way too many first hand accounts of the poor Ukrainian leadership, corruption, and poor integration into the frontline to think it's just a couple of grumblers making too much out of nothing.  My sense is things have gotten better over time, but I'm not sure if this guy can confirm it or not.

Some of those foreigners who left did so because they didn't feel they would survive the problems.  However, I absolutely expect the majority who left couldn't hack the conditions they were under.  There were only a few times in Iraq and Afghanistan where there was intense fighting, most of it urban, and that was with overwhelming domination of everything.  Proportionally few veterans experienced that intensity of fighting, and what is going on in Ukraine dwarfs even that.  So it is not surprising at all to hear NATO vets finding their previous combat experience didn't prepare them for this war.

Many years ago a US Army brigade commander told me he didn't think his guys would do well in a full up conventional war, despite just returning from a successful rotation in Afghanistan when things weren't quiet.  He mentioned artillery explicitly as a huge concern.  Taliban would rocket and mortar positions, true, but I bet the Taliban didn't fire as many rounds in 20 years as the Russians unloaded in a day on small sectors of frontage. 

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for the summary.

For me, the biggest disappointment in the Ukrainians so far has been mishandling all of the foreign volunteers coming at their own expense to fight the Russians.  I've seen way too many first hand accounts of the poor Ukrainian leadership, corruption, and poor integration into the frontline to think it's just a couple of grumblers making too much out of nothing.  My sense is things have gotten better over time, but I'm not sure if this guy can confirm it or not.

Some of those foreigners who left did so because they didn't feel they would survive the problems.  However, I absolutely expect the majority who left couldn't hack the conditions they were under.  There were only a few times in Iraq and Afghanistan where there was intense fighting, most of it urban, and that was with overwhelming domination of everything.  Proportionally few veterans experienced that intensity of fighting, and what is going on in Ukraine dwarfs even that.  So it is not surprising at all to hear NATO vets finding their previous combat experience didn't prepare them for this war.

Many years ago a US Army brigade commander told me he didn't think his guys would do well in a full up conventional war, despite just returning from a successful rotation in Afghanistan when things weren't quiet.  He mentioned artillery explicitly as a huge concern.  Taliban would rocket and mortar positions, true, but I bet the Taliban didn't fire as many rounds in 20 years as the Russians unloaded in a day on small sectors of frontage. 

Steve

remember also, he's talking (so far) about March-April. A lot changed over the summer.

One reality is though, that Ukraine has been evolving from a post-Soviet state and that while its armed forces have showed amazing sophistication at all levels in the combat arms, there's doubtless still a lot of dead wood bureaucrats and mafiya type corruption infesting the logistical tail. That is clearly not a fatal flaw, but is going to take a long time to ferret out.

Edited December 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank