How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

what are 120mm mortar mines??

Just means HE ammunition.

[cesmonkey]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

what are 120mm mortar mines??

Probably this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/120_mm_M984_extended-range_DPICM_mortar_round
 

Quote

It is a 120mm caliber mortar cluster munition that can carry a variety of payloads including either 54 M80 dual-purpose submunitions or six mines.[1]

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by cesmonkey

[Rokko]

A Ukrainianism that slipped through translation? Fun fact: In WW1 times, mortars were also called "mine throwers" in German.

[Beleg85]

Short thread about Russian cult of WWII. Nothing new, but worth reading nonetheless if somebody is wandering how much they believe in it:

 

[Huba]

Thanks to our MoD, a nice DE goodwill gesture will turn into another mutually humiliating tug-of-war. Or a turning point for UA air defense. Didn't made up my mind on it yet...

 

[Zeleban]

48 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

what are 120mm mortar mines??

This has been going on since the days of the Russian Empire. Then the words: mine, projectile, grenade, and even torpedo were synonymous words. Since then, throughout the post-Soviet space, mortar shells are called mines

[Beleg85]

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

Thanks to our MoD, a nice DE goodwill gesture will turn into another mutually humiliating tug-of-war. Or a turning point for UA air defense. Didn't made up my mind on it yet...

I am 99% sure it will be former, if only from both technical and legalistic reasons. Another case of some absurd negotiation techniques between both countries; probably nothing to be particulary focus upon.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I am 99% sure it will be former, if only from both technical and legalistic reasons. Another case of some absurd negotiation techniques between both countries; probably nothing to be particulary focus upon.

The Germans deserve this little gesture after slow walking so many things. It will change the subject if nothing else.

[dan/california]

The depths of mud season have the press/internet blob looking for anything at all while large scale operations are sort of impossible.

 

[Billy Ringo]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

Thanks to our MoD, a nice DE goodwill gesture will turn into another mutually humiliating tug-of-war. Or a turning point for UA air defense. Didn't made up my mind on it yet...

 

Looks like Poland has gotten over the missile on their turf controversy and are comfortable with the Ukrainian response.   Maybe others should do the same and quit beating that dead horse. 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Sojourner is right, I am NOT saying this is OK.  I am saying that single incidents can be blown out of proportion.  We're in an ocean of Putin-instigated blood and this is a drop in that bucket.  Sojourner's point is that the exception will be seen as the rule.  It's the Fox news tactic -- take the 1 out of 100 and show it 100x and folks think it's the 99 out of 100.  And this episode can do that -- completely distorting reality of the big picture through the repeating of an anecdote.  All I am saying is to take this incident as an incident.  

I agree w what you've been saying TheCapt, there is no place for killing captives, ever.  

Absolute peace on this.  I have stated repeatedly that this is a single incident that is in need of a thorough investigation...and then and only then can a determination of a war crime on either side be be made and charges laid for due legal process.  

Nor is this an indicator of wider UA behaviour as far as we have seen.  There was that one kneecapping incident - and I have no doubt there have been others because: scared/angry/tired kids + ammunition = **** happens.  So there is not inclination to blow this out of proportion here.

However, what is important is that the UA and Ukraine are seen and recognized as doing the investigation and follow up, as well as re-tightening rules of engagement etc.  That way they demonstrate that they are better than the RA by leaps and bounds.  Further, entry into NATO after this war is over will no doubt require closing these cases regardless.

Finally, why make Russia's life easier?  Gawd knows what people like Col Macgregor are going to to with this in those echo chambers out there.  Last thing Ukraine needs to question marks on their way of warfare from people already tired of hearing of this war, and losing interest in paying for it in the middle of a recession.  As Steve said - the second the west cannot tell the difference between Ukrainian and Russian behaviors, clearly, the whole damn gig is at risk.  

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The whole reason why we're still talking about this is that some people seem to believe that it doesn't matter if they are innocent or not because there's no reason to question if there is a war crime in the first place.  That's not a presumption of innocence, that is a determination of innocence based on incomplete information, erroneous understanding of the law, and/or a belief that it's morally acceptable to murder Russians because they murder Ukrainians.

And then there is this.  I think it is very fair to say that we here on this forum and thread are very pro-Ukrainian.  We have been pushing back against the "Ukraine is doomed" from Day One largely based on tactical observation from the ground.  But we should not be blindly pro-Ukrainian, which frankly appears to be the direction some people want to go, and I for one do not support it in the least.

This is supposed to be a place where military experts, enthusiast and historical nerds can get together and observe this war through an objective lens and conduct collective analysis.  The second we jump on the "Ukraine can do no wrong" and "Lulz Russia always sux because Russia" train (despite evidence to the contrary), we will lose any objectivity we have.  The second we start supporting - even passively - some of the frankly immensely stupid extremist ideas floating around e.g. demonizing every Russian man, woman and child, lobbying for cultural genocide or worse, or some bizarre "war crimes are just ok, well ours are..." narratives, then we start the steady slide into a true internet cesspool, which frankly is beneath us all.

[Huba]

Just now, Billy Ringo said:

Looks like Poland has gotten over the missile on their turf controversy and are comfortable with the Ukrainian response.   Maybe others should do the same and quit beating that dead horse. 

Getting back to bashing Ze Germans together is a way to get out of this mess, but really not a preferable one...

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The Germans deserve this little gesture after slow walking so many things. It will change the subject if nothing else.

Perhaps. As I understand it, there was a pressure to do something about high-floor AA defence on the East flank but little will of real immediate cooperation (putting real batteries in place) on DE side. So Blaszczak side again appealed to the public. I doubt even germanophobic Kaczynski would play it for purely domestic reasons in such crucial case, so probably (like in case of PzH2000 repairs) it's just another example of misunderstandings of intent vs. real capabilities. Difficult to tell for now, experts here also scratch their heads.

1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:

Looks like Poland has gotten over the missile on their turf controversy and are comfortable with the Ukrainian response.   Maybe others should do the same and quit beating that dead horse. 

I can bet it is not the case but separate issue of internal disputes between NATO countries, these talks are talking place for some time already. Also the problem is changing mood of population, not government line which remain officially roughly the same (minus decreased diplomatic support). Btw. there are alredy first polls confirming it.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The RA and Russia will pay for their actions for decades.  War crimes are one of the key indicators that the RA is in freefall and not a coherent fighting force - military discipline has fallen apart on a wide scale, and they are reaping that field this fall.

But we beat them by being better than they are, forever.    

Do we know if this is actually true that war crimes are a symptom of Russian military discipline collapsing or is it modus operandi? Chechnya, Syria, where undoubtedly a campaign of bombing IHL protected sites and personnel occurred meaning high command approval and authorization, Ukraine, when war crimes were occurring in the first days of the invasion despite the rosy picture falsely painted of Ukraine.

Are we sure this isn't the Russian way of warfare? It would explain why the Russian military has not seemingly fell over and collapsed completely amid Ukrainian advances, and why Russia still has defensive capability.

The practice of brutality in the Russian military remains, the heralded reforms and professionalization of the Russian military seem to have been lies, corruption has and is ravaging it, it might be time to ask if Russian warcrimes are approved and sanctioned at the highest levels of government.

Except we know the answer to that. They are. Putin awarded medals and commendations to those units accused of warcrimes in Bucha.

Therefore we need to actually toss the idea the Russian military is collapsing due to lack of military discipline and instead ask whether the brutality of the military internally and against who it fights is a integral part of the way it functions.

[dan/california]

Of all the the incomprehensible Russian mistakes, not paying mobiks/soldiers is the one I comprehend the least. It just seems like intentional self sabotage. Why wouldn't they just print the money if they had too? 

[Beleg85]

Example of Wagnerite PR. Note stains of red paint on handle:

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Do we know if this is actually true that war crimes are a symptom of Russian military discipline collapsing or is it modus operandi? Chechnya, Syria, where undoubtedly a campaign of bombing IHL protected sites and personnel occurred meaning high command approval and authorization, Ukraine, when war crimes were occurring in the first days of the invasion despite the rosy picture falsely painted of Ukraine.

Are we sure this isn't the Russian way of warfare? It would explain why the Russian military has not seemingly fell over and collapsed completely amid Ukrainian advances, and why Russia still has defensive capability.

The practice of brutality in the Russian military remains, the heralded reforms and professionalization of the Russian military seem to have been lies, corruption has and is ravaging it, it might be time to ask if Russian warcrimes are approved and sanctioned at the highest levels of government.

Except we know the answer to that. They are. Putin awarded medals and commendations to those units accused of warcrimes in Bucha.

Therefore we need to actually toss the idea the Russian military is collapsing due to lack of military discipline and instead ask whether the brutality of the military internally and against who it fights is a integral part of the way it functions.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/some-russian-commanders-knew-sexual-violence-or-encouraged-it-says-lawyer-2022-11-23/

I don't think we have ever wrapped our heads around how completely different the Russian military is from ANYTHING in the West. It really is run more like the Golden Horde than any recognizably modern institution. Actually, at the peak of its power I suspect the Golden Horde was better run. The Russian military is late stage Golden Horde, right before gunpowder resulted in its defeat by Moscow.

The looting, the rape, and the unending war crimes are not failures. They are the very intentional, or at the very least inevitable, result of the way the whole thing is put together. that very much includes the way it brutalizes its own personnel. Their is a vast scope for more real research on this. In purely operational terms it seems to result in an army that only has a fraction of the capability its order of battle implies to a western analyst. At the same time, since it never really had any unit cohesion, it can stagger on after losses that would shatter a NATO unit. Again it is just so different we can't wrap our heads around it. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

International humanitarian law by the very nature of its principles and integration and promotion by the rules based international order and its institutions means the degradation of IHL degrades the rule based international system and vice versa. Putin hates the rules based order. He spends a lot of time in speeches condemning it.  Review of Russian government actions, including the foreign ministry, as well as the military actions since the beginning of the invasion have basically been broadsiding the system in rhetoric, in action, with violence, with near shamelessness and disregard.

I will bring up the fact that Putin ordered the invasion to begin, announced via speech and began bombardment of Ukraine in the middle of a UN Security Council meeting to lower tensions and resolve the issue diplomatically.

For a permanent member, one of the Big Five, to do that and basically attest to its disregard of the international order that it benefits hugely from, was in my opinion always supposed to be a clear message heralding the end of the international system, with the cake being the annexation of Ukraine.

That it failed, hides the fact that Russia both in rhetoric, in actions, with long history, with buy in from both the civilian (including foreign office, usually the more peaceful and level headed people) and military structures of the Russian government speaks to it being a driving goal of Russia.

It is no surprise that Russian forces commit war crimes, it is a testament to the strength of Russian hybrid warfare and it's government that it has hidden that war crimes, brutality and destruction of the principles of IHL is approved and sanctioned and is a strategic arm of Russian geopolitical power. They concealed it enough to prevent unified and concise action by the West up until the invasion.

[sburke]

39 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Example of Wagnerite PR. Note stains of red paint on handle:

 

one hopes they will actually send it.  it will make the vote to declare them a terrorist organization that much easier.

[Blazing 88's]

If you would like your blood to boil watch this feed while the russian is speaking:

https://media.un.org/en/asset/k1d/k1dc139lu2

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/some-russian-commanders-knew-sexual-violence-or-encouraged-it-says-lawyer-2022-11-23/

I don't think we have ever wrapped our heads around how completely different the Russian military is from ANYTHING in the West. It really is run more like the Golden Horde than any recognizably modern institution. Actually, at the peak of its power I suspect the Golden Horde was better run. The Russian military is late stage Golden Horde, right before gunpowder resulted in its defeat by Moscow.

The looting, the rape, and the unending war crimes are not failures. They are the very intentional, or at the very least inevitable, result of the way the whole thing is put together. that very much includes the way it brutalizes its own personnel. Their is a vast scope for more real research on this. In purely operational terms it seems to result in an army that only has a fraction of the capability its order of battle implies to a western analyst. At the same time, since it never really had any unit cohesion, it can stagger on after losses that would shatter a NATO unit. Again it is just so different we can't wrap our heads around it. 

Yo, the golden horde was flipping amazing at its stated purpose: conquering places and extracting wealth from tthose conquered places.  Disparage them not!  The Russian army has the same charter and is terrible at it (washing machines being a notable exception).

[cesmonkey]

 A little bit dated - from last week - but I found this podcast analyzing the failures of the Russian Air Force in Ukraine very interesting:
https://podcast.silverado.org/episodes/how-the-russian-air-force-failed-in-ukraine

And this is the report this podcast episode is referring to:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/russian-air-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence

Edited November 23, 2022 by cesmonkey

[Calamine Waffles]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

what are 120mm mortar mines??

A small infantry mortar in Russian/Ukrainian is called minomyot lit. "mine-thrower". Same thing like in German (Minenwerfer was a WW1 term for mortars). This distinguishes them from the huge mortars (mortira) like the 240 mm on the 2S4 Tyulpan.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Do we know if this is actually true that war crimes are a symptom of Russian military discipline collapsing or is it modus operandi?

Oh my that is one deep question.  Been thinking about it and its not a crazy hypothesis but I am still not sure it stands up.

Military Dimension

First off there have historically been militaries that have done horrendous things we would label as war crimes and they demonstrated high levels of discipline and cohesion.  Most are pre-modern era but the Japanese Army in China in the 30s springs to mind.  Brutal actions from the worst parts of humanity but still highly disciplined and highly cohesive.

For most militaries whose way of way leans this way they have applied structure to their chaos.  Looting, rape and civilian murder we planned phases of an operation, normally as an incentive or to allow the boys to “let off steam”. Once they got it out of their systems, order was re-established and discipline re-exerted. The primary reason for this is to keep primacy of collective interests over individual interests.  

Recall that whole macro - micro discussion and orientation?  It centres on the idea that organic micro-social structures are in tension with macro social structures.  Well micro orientation can be a good or bad thing to military organization - eg the home fires.  However it can also be toxic - individual survival calculus and interests driven by other pressures.  So looting, rape and recreational murder can quickly spiral out of control and erode the larger military’s ability to sustain structure….unless it is regulated within it.

Does the Russian military do this?  Very hard to tell.  There appears to be some evidence of systemic brutality, no doubt; however, there is a lot of “ad hoc” looking activity as well.  Troops abandoning fighting vehicles but hanging onto the washing machines is not a sign of structured brutality - more poor discipline and lack of leadership even in commission of war crimes.

So what?  Well unless the RA can structure this sort of violence the corrosive effects is going to add up.  Soldiers getting drunk, looting, raping and murdering is not a good thing if it occurs out of the control of the military hierarchy - crazy but true.  It is a matter of time that soldiers who are living like this create sub-tribes and quickly fall apart as cohesive units.  The question remains how much is under control and how much is just poor discipline and control?  Very hard to tell from evidence we can see.

Social Dimension

War is a lot more than an extension of policy.  It is an extension of the people who wage it on deep social - cultural, cognitive and conative - levels.  So if a military is adopting a way of war that includes warcrimes in a systemic way, there is normally a level of social norms that support this.  Here the evidence is a lot less definitive - I am sure someone will come along shortly and tell us that all Russians eat babies while clog dancing on puppies but internally they are pretty middle of the road as far as violent crime:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/violent-crime-rates-by-country

These numbers do not speak to a society that, internally at least, is accepting of high levels of violence.  Now this is only one indication and I am willing to bet Japanese crime rate in the 30s we’re very low - it was an orderly society.  Did Japanese society endorse brutality for “others” outside of Japan - history suggests “yes”.

So What?  Well if the RA is acting outside accepted Russian societal norms then it is clear it’s soldiers are on a very slippery slope away from their own people. This speaks to carcinogenic effects of internal military tribal societies that are alienated from both their own military and people - that is not good and clear evidence of structural failure.

If Russian soldiers are acting aligned with Russian accepted social norms towards war, then war crimes may very well have less of a corrosive effect from a societal point of view.

Now there have been all sorts of social media sound bites of Russian phone calls etc but these are not a real social study of Russian culture and its tolerance of brutality in war.  So in the end the question is too big to answer here.

I suspect that war crimes are eroding the RA to some extent.  Largely because there appears to be a lot less structure and organization in execution and more ad hoc bottom up chaos in the entire RA structure.  I do not think we are even capable of objectively assessing Russian society at this point, so we can put that aside.  

Finally as to RA collapse.  I argue that is is happening in front of us right now.  It has been collapsing since at least this summer broadly and suffered local collapses since the end of March. The evidence is pretty damning and continues to grow steadily.  RA fighting capability has eroded significantly as a result, to the point most found the Kherson withdrawal somewhat surprising.  The effects of war crimes and their role in that collapse is an excellent question but I suspect we will not really know for some time.

Edited November 24, 2022 by The_Capt

[OldSarge]

2 hours ago, Blazing 88's said:

If you would like your blood to boil watch this feed while the russian is speaking:

https://media.un.org/en/asset/k1d/k1dc139lu2

Thanks for posting! The Russian ambassador starts at the 1:21:25 mark. He rants about what he regards as Ukrainian mendacity and propaganda, while putting on quite a nice display of his own version of mendacity and propaganda.