How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Seminole]

On 11/16/2022 at 8:53 AM, kraze said:

russian missiles were mass flying right in that area. An area which has power lines coming from Poland, severing which would be very in line with russian goals. So c and d are doubtful considering other variables.

I'm thinking more in this vein:

Forbes

In recent years, several errant Syrian S-200 surface-to-air (SAM) missiles missed their airborne targets and landed in other countries. Damascus frequently fires off these antiquated missiles at Israeli fighter jets attacking Iran-related targets throughout the country. These hopelessly outdated S-200s have failed to deter or disrupt Israel's air campaign .

On the morning of Apr. 22, 2021, a Syrian S-200 fired in response to Israeli airstrikes once again failed to hit any Israeli aircraft or missiles and went on to penetrate Israeli airspace, reaching the Negev desert in southern Israel. Israeli air defenses failed to intercept the errant SAM, which detonated over the village of Ashalim approximately 125 miles south of Syria.

 

On 11/16/2022 at 8:53 AM, kraze said:

Nord stream attack wasn't accidental either.

I doubt it was an accident myself.

https://www.pipeline-journal.net/news/explosive-laden-drone-found-near-nord-stream-pipeline

Explosive-Laden Drone Found Near Nord Stream Pipeline

 Fri, 11/13/2015

Ruling out sabotage, the Swedish military has successfully cleared a remote operated vehicle (drone) rigged with explosives found near Line 2 of the Nord Stream Natural Gas offshore pipeline system.

The vehicle was discovered during a routine survey operation as part of the annual integrity assessment of the Nord Stream pipeline. Since it was within the Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) approximately 120 km away from the island of Gotland, the Swedes called on their armed forces to remove and ultimately disarm the object.

“We don't consider it to be dangerous to merchant vessels or the pipeline at this point,” Jesper Stolpe, Swedish Armed Forces spokesman, told Radio Sweden. According to Stolpe, the cable used to control the drone and to set off the explosive was cut off, so at the moment the vehicle is relatively harmless.

The national identity of the drone has not been verified so far, as many countries use Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) of a similar construction, Stolpe said

 

[Battlefront.com]

I do NOT want to have us discussing Musk and Twitter.  That is a different fiasco headed up by an out of touch billionaire autocrat.  However, it looks like we might have to get used to using Reddit for the flow of information out of Ukraine.  Twitter could possibly collapse soon or, at the very least, be significantly disrupted.

Again, I do NOT want a discussion about Twitter.  Just a heads up that if you have open tabs with Twitter stuff you wanted to read/watch at a later time, might want to do it now.

Steve

[dan/california]

While Twitter is still here, this is perhaps the best propaganda parody of the war.

 

[dan/california]

As a small aside the board might need a lot more server capacity if a vast number of people get cut off from what is currently their primary source of information.

[Battlefront.com]

Here's a bit of a different Russian officer KIA for @sburke's list.  According to this a full Colonel at the Pacific Fleet's Higher Naval School was shot in the chest 5 times.  Death by mobik?

Steve

https://www.newsweek.com/vadim-boyko-russian-officer-bullets-suicide-mobilization-putin-1760296

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, dan/california said:

While Twitter is still here, this is perhaps the best propaganda parody of the war.

 

Heh... the first half was obviously parody, but the last half seems to me to be faithfully translated.  At least that's a pretty normal exchange of "opinions" on that show

Steve

[danfrodo]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

While Twitter is still here, this is perhaps the best propaganda parody of the war.

 

Dan/CA you need to avoid post things like this, it's dangerous.  I laughed so hard I nearly passed out

[Degsy]

Link to a 30+ minute podcast interview with Rob Lee - The Naked Pravda podcast - Ukraine

 

Timestamps for this episode:

• (2:38) What’s so special about HIMARS, or High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems?
• (10:22) What other advanced weapons could give Ukraine new advantages in the war?
• (14:57) What’s the military impact of Russia’s airstrikes against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure?
• (18:57) How far might Ukraine’s counteroffensive reach into occupied territory? Will Russian defenses hold at some point?
• (25:19) Is the Russian military regrouping or on the verge of collapse?
• (27:41) What happened with the missile(s) that recently killed two civilians in Poland?
• (30:26) Is Russia going to run out of rockets or ammunition?

[Anon052]

5 hours ago, chris talpas said:

Why the reluctance on Zelensky’s part to admit it was an accident and move on?

No one is blaming Ukraine, but continuing to say it isn’t theirs is doing them no favours.

The only thing that makes sense is that they (ukraine) genuinely believe that it was NOT their missile or at least their political leaders.

A ukrainian missile wouldn't need the same response from NATO than a russian one.

Edited November 18, 2022 by Anon052

[Zeleban]

I think many of you remember the shocking photo with the corpses of Russian soldiers in the courtyard of the house, several chickens ran between them.

As it turned out, they died during the surrender. One of their friends decided to be a hero and wounded one of the soldiers of Ukraine, thus signing the death warrant for himself and his friends.

[CAZmaj]

https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/1593507377881432066?s=20&t=9DJBGGx-zuEXlCuUDJRz2w

https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/1593507377881432066/photo/1

 

Edited November 18, 2022 by CAZmaj

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian soldier fires a mortar in the Zaporizhia region on November 16, 2022. REUTERS"

[The_MonkeyKing]

interesting little story:

videos:
https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yy62hy/ukrainians_were_taking_a_group_of_russians/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/ytw4rp/what_1000_kia_a_day_looks_like_large_number_of/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&utm_name=CombatFootage&utm_content=t1_iwsg7em

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

 

The most comprehensive analysis of the air war status from the start to this point. (second one was "Revisiting Russian Air Performance in Ukraine-the Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman" but it has paywall)

[Taranis]

 

2S7 Pion

[Harmon Rabb]

Sweden finds explosive traces at Nord Stream blast site, confirms sabotage (The Washington Post)

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian deminers inspect a grain silo used as a base by Russian soldiers during the occupation, in Snihourivka, in the Mykolaiv region, on November 16, 2022. IHOR TKACHOV / AFP"

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

interesting little story:

videos:
https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yy62hy/ukrainians_were_taking_a_group_of_russians/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/ytw4rp/what_1000_kia_a_day_looks_like_large_number_of/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&utm_name=CombatFootage&utm_content=t1_iwsg7em

 

People on Reddit speculating that this was a execution of prisoners by Ukrainians, after one Russian faked surrendering and came out shooting.

[The_MonkeyKing]

44 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

People on Reddit speculating that this was a execution of prisoners by Ukrainians, after one Russian faked surrendering and came out shooting.

Could be either. After the RUS opening up the Ukrainian machine gun gunner (that we saw in the vid) is going to open up and understandably going to keep firing for a while. Not taking the risk any of the guys laying down have change of mind or misunderstand the situation as UKR attack and start defending themselves. Also if grenades were thrown..

[Beleg85]

5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Could be either. After the RUS opening up the Ukrainian machine gun gunner (that we saw in the vid) is going to open up and understandably going to keep firing for a while. Not taking the risk any of the guys laying down have change of mind or misunderstand the situation as UKR attack and start defending themselves. Also if grenades were thrown..

Yup, seems legit. Curiously why this daredevil decided to came out to fight into obviously doomed situation. Am I right that, judging by appearance these may be guys from Caucasus? Dagestani, Ingushe etc. are often incorrectly taken for kadyrovtsy.

5 hours ago, Anon052 said:

The only thing that makes sense is that they (ukraine) genuinely believe that it was NOT their missile or at least their political leaders.

Could also be instinctive reaction of post-Soviet institutional mentallity to deny everything on the spot. Nobody is specifically to blame, just perhaps they collectively rushed into conclusions on their own. However I doubt it, Kuleba at least seems professional and cold-headed; for this he was very liked here. I don't know enough about internal UA politics unfortunatelly to answer this. We should also keep in mind that largest rocket attack was taking place on their soil. Still, it doesn't absolve their behaviour if it was indeed their rockets.

But need to admitt there are several odd things from NATO side about this incident that raise eyebrows as well.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Russian tent:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1593564758267019266?s=20&t=kEBOortGfMgiOsdxfdeYJw

 

 

Close enough?:

 

[Zeleban]

Russian demonstrates the aftermath of a HIMARS rocket explosion with tungsten balls. The whole machine is literally riddled including the frame and engine. The commentator is sure that the car cannot be restored

[kevinkin]

And one opinion of the overall situation:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/russias-missing-peacemakers

A pessimistic outlook since the "realists" are not on board nor are willing to rise up against the "conservatives". A large part of the article is quoted below. But you have to ask: elites, either conservative or realists, are still just a fraction of the country. Can the rest of Russia's society peel away enough realists to make difference? And would freezing the kinetic war buy them time? I am afraid not. That status quo will not last long enough. The two nations will go back it again after the West pays more attention to things like inflation, climate change, and who will make the payoffs. Careers and money will be made. How many cycles can go on? The West thinks time is on their side and will advocate stopping to rest and rearm Ukraine. Russian thinks the West will become distracted and time is on their side. Is a new iron curtain being establish far to the east of the old one. And how many years did that one last? Not that surprising that it's becoming a war of wills. Perseverance is key.

NO WAY OUT
In Putin’s Russia, there are many ways to define defeat. For its military leadership, defeat is an accumulation of battlefield setbacks; for the nationalist hard-liners, it entails allowing Ukraine’s “anti-Russia” state to exist at all; and for the security services, it means losing a major Russian confrontation with the West. For the regular elites, it means anything that threatens their personal and political security. But for almost all of Russia’s main constituencies, including the realists, withdrawing Russian forces to their pre-invasion lines of control would meet their criteria. Such a move would not only mark the end of Russian influence over Ukraine but also usher in a humiliating new geopolitical reality for Moscow.

On Russian telegram channels, many Russians have implied that the West would insist on dismissing Putin as a part of possible agreement. Many conservatives believe that if Putin fell as a result of such a deal, his regime would eventually be followed by a more pro-Western government that would betray Russia’s strategic interests and allow the country to physically disintegrate. To put it simply, the Russian elite sees the war against Ukraine not as expansionary but as a war for self-preservation.

Many Russians believe that the collapse of the state would be followed by international criminal investigations, perhaps even a war crimes tribunal. This prospect frightens even Russian elites not involved in the fighting.

Despite the different interests in play, technocrats, security operatives, conservative nationalists, and business leaders are largely united in believing that Russia cannot lose, lest it result in the collapse of the regime on which they all depend.

But Moscow is becoming deeply divided on how to accomplish that task.

The growing chorus of realists, by contrast, has come to see that Moscow does not have the resources that it needs to win. Instead, they favor an approach in which Russia avoids more defeat by freezing the war where it is, digging defensive lines around their current positions and using reinforcements to stop the Ukrainian advance.

There is no one in the Russian elite who will support a Russian withdrawal to the country’s February 24 positions. It is possible, however, that the realists could publicly push for freezing the conflict in a temporary agreement with the West (sealed with Ukraine). First, however, they would need to overcome the radical hawks, who are ready to fight in Ukraine until the bitter end and who remain dominant in domestic political discourse. To do so, they will have to convince Putin to personally acknowledge reality and opt for a more sober approach to the conflict. But even if Putin gives up and admits that the best Russia can do is freeze the war, it will not assuage elite fears about Russia’s survival and territorial integrity in face of the West, which even the realists believe wants to subjugate Russia.

And unlike many of Russia’s elites, Putin believes that Ukraine is still doomed. His present personal goal is tactical—stopping Kyiv’s attacks, holding the line, and then waiting until the Ukrainian state collapses, which he believes is just a matter of time. Putin could even escalate, turning to nuclear weapons. Signaling to the realists that peace with Ukraine will not inevitably cause Russia to collapse is a dramatically challenging task. But it may be the only way to get the Kremlin to end its catastrophic invasion. Until then, even the realist elites have no choice but to bet on the strong state and the strongman.

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

And one opinion of the overall situation:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/russias-missing-peacemakers

A pessimistic outlook since the "realists" are not on board nor are willing to rise up against the "conservatives". A large part of the article is quoted below. But you have to ask: elites, either conservative or realists, are still just a fraction of the country. Can the rest of Russia's society peel away enough realists to make difference? And would freezing the kinetic war buy them time? I am afraid not. That status quo will not last long enough. The two nations will go back it again after the West pays more attention to things like inflation, climate change, and who will make the payoffs. Careers and money will be made. How many cycles can go on? The West thinks time is on their side and will advocate stopping to rest and rearm Ukraine. Russian thinks the West will become distracted and time is on their side. Is a new iron curtain being establish far to the east of the old one. And how many years did that one last? Not that surprising that it's becoming a war of wills. Perseverance is key.

NO WAY OUT
In Putin’s Russia, there are many ways to define defeat. For its military leadership, defeat is an accumulation of battlefield setbacks; for the nationalist hard-liners, it entails allowing Ukraine’s “anti-Russia” state to exist at all; and for the security services, it means losing a major Russian confrontation with the West. For the regular elites, it means anything that threatens their personal and political security. But for almost all of Russia’s main constituencies, including the realists, withdrawing Russian forces to their pre-invasion lines of control would meet their criteria. Such a move would not only mark the end of Russian influence over Ukraine but also usher in a humiliating new geopolitical reality for Moscow.

On Russian telegram channels, many Russians have implied that the West would insist on dismissing Putin as a part of possible agreement. Many conservatives believe that if Putin fell as a result of such a deal, his regime would eventually be followed by a more pro-Western government that would betray Russia’s strategic interests and allow the country to physically disintegrate. To put it simply, the Russian elite sees the war against Ukraine not as expansionary but as a war for self-preservation.

Many Russians believe that the collapse of the state would be followed by international criminal investigations, perhaps even a war crimes tribunal. This prospect frightens even Russian elites not involved in the fighting.

Despite the different interests in play, technocrats, security operatives, conservative nationalists, and business leaders are largely united in believing that Russia cannot lose, lest it result in the collapse of the regime on which they all depend.

But Moscow is becoming deeply divided on how to accomplish that task.

The growing chorus of realists, by contrast, has come to see that Moscow does not have the resources that it needs to win. Instead, they favor an approach in which Russia avoids more defeat by freezing the war where it is, digging defensive lines around their current positions and using reinforcements to stop the Ukrainian advance.

There is no one in the Russian elite who will support a Russian withdrawal to the country’s February 24 positions. It is possible, however, that the realists could publicly push for freezing the conflict in a temporary agreement with the West (sealed with Ukraine). First, however, they would need to overcome the radical hawks, who are ready to fight in Ukraine until the bitter end and who remain dominant in domestic political discourse. To do so, they will have to convince Putin to personally acknowledge reality and opt for a more sober approach to the conflict. But even if Putin gives up and admits that the best Russia can do is freeze the war, it will not assuage elite fears about Russia’s survival and territorial integrity in face of the West, which even the realists believe wants to subjugate Russia.

And unlike many of Russia’s elites, Putin believes that Ukraine is still doomed. His present personal goal is tactical—stopping Kyiv’s attacks, holding the line, and then waiting until the Ukrainian state collapses, which he believes is just a matter of time. Putin could even escalate, turning to nuclear weapons. Signaling to the realists that peace with Ukraine will not inevitably cause Russia to collapse is a dramatically challenging task. But it may be the only way to get the Kremlin to end its catastrophic invasion. Until then, even the realist elites have no choice but to bet on the strong state and the strongman.

Excellent ,if grim, article. Assuming the author is correct, and that is a largish assumption, there is nothing for it but to redouble support for Ukraine. If the Russian elite cannot be convinced to change course there is no choice but to kill chmobiks until they simply refuse to show up. Ukraine needs what it has needed for months. Abrams, IFVs, ATACAMS, and as much 155 as it takes. Concrete for new ammo plants needs to be poured YESTERDAY. Ukraine needs to be able to put the best part of a KILOMETER of the Kerch Bridge in the water just to make a statement of resolve. We will see what Russian elite opinion is when they simply don't have an army left.

[Beleg85]

Video of Dirlewagnerites being shelled, I think there were earlier clips from the same spot several days ago.