How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grossman]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another "this" to add to this "this".

Poland is smart.  Very smart.  They won't ask for Article 5 unless they think, for sure, that Russia did it deliberately.  Given only one missile hit Poland, it was part of a huge wave of missions on Ukrainian targets, Russian's are running out of their better missiles, and even those suck most likely means this was accidental.  No way is anybody going to risk WW3 by overreacting to a single accidental incident.  Poland wouldn't even try IMHO.

We've talked about Russia likely not wanting NATO to be directly involved as it is an instant defeat for them.  Poking Poland would be a very bad idea in that case.

However, accident or not there will be a response.  I would not rule out a no-fly zone over Ukraine as it is appropriate for the circumstances.  Kinda like taking a toy away from a child after it hurts someone.  And if Russia challenges it, well then things are going to get very interesting very quickly.

Steve

One can assume NATO has worked through all scenarios. A likely response to a stray missile scenario might be to speed up the supply of missile defence systems to Ukraine; NATO sees provision essential to the protection of life and property. A 2nd option is the provision of F-15's to the Ukrainians. A third option is a no fly zone 100 km from the battlefield, in essence protecting Ukrainian major cities. It depends on the collective mood of NATO members. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

11 minutes ago, Grossman said:

One can assume NATO has worked through all scenarios. A likely response to a stray missile scenario might be to speed up the supply of missile defence systems to Ukraine; NATO sees provision essential to the protection of life and property. A 2nd option is the provision of F-15's to the Ukrainians. A third option is a no fly zone 100 km from the battlefield, in essence protecting Ukrainian major cities. It depends on the collective mood of NATO members. 

I think NATO might solve the problem of Russia firing missiles near POL border. UKR intercepting these has a risk of landing in Poland like now happened. Also Russian missile malfunctions are a risk.

This might mean some sort of air and missile intercept zone for NATO lets say within 100km of Polish border. Taken care of with NATO airpower and air defence.

[Battlefront.com]

If it was a S-300 then it was from Ukraine and they should have waited until NATO made a determination before extending one of their own.  A rare mistake of Ukraine's messaging.  Haven't seen a goof like this since snubbing the German President's visit, though ultimately I don't think it hurt them any.

On the other hand, still don't know enough.  There's a chance, though probably small, that the S-300 went into Polish airspace because a Russian missile was over the line?

Whatever the case, I agree with FancyCat and The_MonkeyKing that Ukraine would be wise to fess up to the mistake and then to switch to "We're sorry for the misfired SAM, but if we had better air defenses maybe something like this could be avoided in the future.  Even better would be stopping Russia from continuing terror strikes on our civilians".

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

BTW, it is still within reason for Poland to call up Article 4 even if this was a Ukrainian missile.  Russia is ultimately responsible for the hit on Poland because no war would mean no hit.  Article 4 is about a threat to security, not necessarily a direct attack.  Poland and the Baltics called for Article 4 after Russia invaded Crimea, for example.

Steve

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Ukrainians humiliated themselves with the FM and PM statements. Lets see how they walk these back.

If they didn't jump the gun yesterday, today there would have been the angles of "we have old ****ty missiles, give use new ones" and "the Russians are firing their missiles along the UKR-POL border, so Russia is at fault, this was inevitable".

I say pretty small change it was a Russian fired missile at this point. All that remains to be known to be sure is the type of missile.

A bit zealous I suppose but ultimately Ukraine is dealing with (check tweet below)

And I saw someone make a good point, a furor over the polish deaths, from one missile tho obviously tragic, must be prevented, is important, is overshadowing the fact Ukraine is fending off hundreds of missiles and drones without the ability to strike launch platforms or command and center in Russia and Belarus.

Hope these are false alarms or that the amount of missiles is lower but I feel like Russia may decide to capitalize on Ukraine misfires, is entirely possible for them to pursue to drive a wedge into the Polish - Ukrainian unity and will seek now to cause further damage by focusing missiles on western Ukraine.

I hope all our posters here from Ukraine are safe and remain so.

 

[Zeleban]

 

As far as I remember, it was stated that two missiles hit the territory of Poland? But the wreckage was presented only from one. Where did the second rocket go and what type was it?

[Yet]

hello echo-chamber,

- if it was an ukrainian (also no NATO) missile, should NATO then wipe the UA? 

ofcourse not, so no. for a stray missile NATO wont get involved other than maybe increased airdefence, increased borderpresence etc. 

though it is all speculation: it makes sense that it was a russian rocket that overshot Dobrotvirska target with UA airdefence coming behind. 

 

---

Im happy to read 10/10 shakheeds are down. good to hear only 10 were launched, and that all 10 were taken out  it shows the improvement in airdefence, and might also shine a light of the future of (dumb/cheap offensive) drones vs airdefence that was discussed earlier. I wonder which systems were used to take what down. 

---

a no-flyzone has specifics about what cannot fly. May aircraft? rockets? himars? drones?

An all-in nofly over whole ukraine might be counterproductive

 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Yet

[Zeleban]

Be that as it may, it is very unfortunate that the civilians of Poland are also suffering because of this war unleashed by the Putin regime.

[Zeleban]

 

[Tux]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Whatever the case, I agree with FancyCat and The_MonkeyKing that Ukraine would be wise to fess up to the mistake and then to switch to "We're sorry for the misfired SAM, but if we had better air defenses maybe something like this could be avoided in the future.  Even better would be stopping Russia from continuing terror strikes on our civilians".

It’s worth remembering as well that Poland isn’t some neutral neighbour who Ukraine have to avoid provoking.  There are few countries in the world who are as supportive of Ukraine’s fight.

In my opinion there’s no need to over-do the excuses, here:  A plain, heartfelt apology and a high-ranking Ukrainian official visiting the bereaved families and willing to attend the funerals of those killed could easily undo the damage caused by yesterday’s premature denials and allow Ukraine to maintain its image as the mature and civilised party in this war.

The Poles know very well why Ukraine had SAMs in the air.  The best Ukrainian response now is to support Poland in their mourning and thank them for their ongoing support.

If it was a Ukrainian missile, of course.

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Tux
Typo and qualifier

[Hapless]

So, my quick 2p on the Polish Missile Incident while we wait for more facts to come out:

On the one hand, it seems likely that it was an accident, or at least unintentional (which is not quite the same thing). Missiles can do funny things in flight- I don't think it's unreasonable to think that a Russian cruise missile got lost somehow, that a Ukrainian air defence missile missed it's target and keep going west, or that a Russian missile was damaged by a Ukrainian one and went off course.

We've got some spectacular footage of a missile in Luhansk deciding to do a 180 and return itself to sender- it's not a stretch to think that one might be damaged or off by a small error when fired and end up miles off target.

On the other hand... it seems like there's a lot of potential deniability to this and thus uncertainty. The fact that missiles malfunction and get lost, the fact that Russia and Ukraine both use similar weapons, the fact that the missile hit a random location in Poland rather than a specific target... this is all leads to a pretty murky picture (at least, right now).

Does that deniability and murkiness make it more likely that it's actually some kind of Russian signalling attempt? The timing is interesting- NATO leaders are split between Europe and Bali because of the G19 (those in Indonesia, including Biden having to be roused at stupid o'clock over there to be briefed) and the Russians have just suffered a significant set-back at Kherson.

They certainly blew the Nordstream pipeline after the Kharkiv Offensive took off in what was almost certainly a signalling attempt... that obviously did not warn NATO off, so are the Russians taking a step up the escalation ladder? Just drop a missile somewhere on the Polish border at random- enough to pass off as a malfunction, or ideally a Ukrainian error- but also enough to say "Look guys, we can hit the cross-border supply routes. You've been warned."

Signalling? Coincidences? Or the unfortunate but natural result of firing a hundred cruise missiles at Ukraine? Of course, it stands to reason that it could be both, with the risk of missile malfunction generating this kind of incident accepted as an opportunity to send a signal.

But, too early to know yet. We'll see.

[kraze]

There are only two ways a SAM missile would ever go towards Poland:

a) it was launched there deliberately in an "artillery mode"

b) it was chasing a target going towards Poland

It can't be an 'a' for a ton of obvious reasons, so only 'b' is reasonable.

But even if it was a russian missile alone - it's also reasonable that NATO will want to downplay the issue and kind of shift the blame without actually shifting the blame because the only other option is war with Russia and a lot more dead Polish citizens.

Realpolitik sucks and as I said there will be no response even if it's 100% of russian doing.

 

 

[Butschi]

22 minutes ago, Hapless said:

So, my quick 2p on the Polish Missile Incident while we wait for more facts to come out:

On the one hand, it seems likely that it was an accident, or at least unintentional (which is not quite the same thing). Missiles can do funny things in flight- I don't think it's unreasonable to think that a Russian cruise missile got lost somehow, that a Ukrainian air defence missile missed it's target and keep going west, or that a Russian missile was damaged by a Ukrainian one and went off course.

We've got some spectacular footage of a missile in Luhansk deciding to do a 180 and return itself to sender- it's not a stretch to think that one might be damaged or off by a small error when fired and end up miles off target.

On the other hand... it seems like there's a lot of potential deniability to this and thus uncertainty. The fact that missiles malfunction and get lost, the fact that Russia and Ukraine both use similar weapons, the fact that the missile hit a random location in Poland rather than a specific target... this is all leads to a pretty murky picture (at least, right now).

Does that deniability and murkiness make it more likely that it's actually some kind of Russian signalling attempt? The timing is interesting- NATO leaders are split between Europe and Bali because of the G19 (those in Indonesia, including Biden having to be roused at stupid o'clock over there to be briefed) and the Russians have just suffered a significant set-back at Kherson.

They certainly blew the Nordstream pipeline after the Kharkiv Offensive took off in what was almost certainly a signalling attempt... that obviously did not warn NATO off, so are the Russians taking a step up the escalation ladder? Just drop a missile somewhere on the Polish border at random- enough to pass off as a malfunction, or ideally a Ukrainian error- but also enough to say "Look guys, we can hit the cross-border supply routes. You've been warned."

Signalling? Coincidences? Or the unfortunate but natural result of firing a hundred cruise missiles at Ukraine? Of course, it stands to reason that it could be both, with the risk of missile malfunction generating this kind of incident accepted as an opportunity to send a signal.

But, too early to know yet. We'll see.

Just for the sake of completeness, although I don't believe in this theory, going by cui bono Ukraine also has a lot to gain from NATO getting involved, so could have staged this incident. (It would also be reckless because it could harm relations to the West immensely, so really unlikely)

While this kind of speculation is a lot of fun, just like with the Nord Stream pipelines I'll advocate for keeping calm and waiting what a thorough investigation brings to light. Jumping to conclusions that can't be proven in the end only helps Russia.

And I know some of you guys have wet dreams about a NATO intervention, so take a cold shower (if only because hit showers get so damn expensive these days...). Article 5 is not triggered automatically, it needs a unanimous vote from all members. The chance of that happening over such an incident is close to zero and it won't just be Germany that isn't marching along.

[Tux]

27 minutes ago, kraze said:

There are only two ways a SAM missile would ever go towards Poland:

a) it was launched there deliberately in an "artillery mode"

b) it was chasing a target going towards Poland

It can't be an 'a' for a ton of obvious reasons, so only 'b' is reasonable.

But even if it was a russian missile alone - it's also reasonable that NATO will want to downplay the issue and kind of shift the blame without actually shifting the blame because the only other option is war with Russia and a lot more dead Polish citizens.

Realpolitik sucks and as I said there will be no response even if it's 100% of russian doing.

 

 

c) missile malfunction..?

d) accidental/mistaken launch?

If it was a Russian missile there will be some response. At least enough of one that Russia should be quietly wary of risking it happening again.

Edited November 16, 2022 by Tux
Minor rephrasing

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, Tux said:

c) missile malfunction..?

d) accidental launch?

If it was a Russian missile there will be some response. At least enough of one that Russia should be wary of risking it happening again.

e) Some kind of "demo mode". There has to be some mode for testing the missile without an actual target, at least during development. Working for a company that was involved in Dieselgate, I know how such pieces of software can end up in the final product. 

[TheVulture]

BBC reporting that the Polish president is saying the explosion was most likely Ukrainian air defences:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855

Blast 'very likely' caused by Ukrainian air defence - Polish president

More now from a press conference by Polish President Andrzej Duda.

He says it's "very likely" that a missile explosion in a Polish village late last night was caused by Ukrainian air defences.

Ukraine was attempting to defend against a barrage of Russian strikes. It has denied it was to blame for the blast in the Polish village.

[kevinkin]

Well if it was Ukrainian ordinance, they are making up for it by some shots going out the other way with a bit more accuracy. 

https://metro.co.uk/2022/11/15/sniper-takes-out-russian-from-1-7-miles-in-worlds-second-longest-combat-kill-17759807/

Condolences to the Poles and thanks for being a great member of NATO. 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

As far as I remember, it was stated that two missiles hit the territory of Poland? But the wreckage was presented only from one. Where did the second rocket go and what type was it?

It was very early rumour from journo that was around, but his witness probably panicked (note, missile fell 200 m from school with probably somebody still inside).  So far we can 100% sure there was one missile, one cannot simply hide KH 101 if landed in the field or forest.

 

I don't get information policy from Ukraine, they were so good by now with PR. Nobody normal would have pretensions for them if that would be accident, it is understandable they wage a war and missiles can misfire. Say sorry, pay reparations, promise they do everything to invastigate etc. Case closed.

But now they push this denial even more. It should be fairly simple to check which battery shot it- S-300 do not fly just like that on regular basis. This will be absolute feast fro Russian propaganda and already Ukraino-sceptics here are raging.

 

Technical explanation from expert on why missile flied so high (worth to autotranslate):

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

Just now, Beleg85 said:

I don't get information policy from Ukraine, they were so good by now with PR. Nobody normal would have pretensions for them if that would be accident, it is understandable they wage a war and missiles can misfire. Say sorry, pay reparations, promise they do everything to invastigate etc. Case closed.

But now they push this denial even more. It should be fairly simple to check which battery shot it- S-300 do not fly just like that on regular basis. This will be absolute feast fro Russian propaganda.

Yeah, they are turning it into PR quagmire from the very beginning, and do not show any sign of willing to stop. It's strange, given that Duda and Biden reportedly spoke to Zelensky yesterday evening already. Unless there's an angle here that we don't see yet, it seems that it will be a ru propaganda win

[kevinkin]

Some back peddling from Milley's comments and "principle vs bodies" come up in this one today:

 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/14/u-s-ukraine-milley-negotiations-00066777?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

[kevinkin]

Maybe NATO can get Putin to overspend on the artic. That would really tick him off. And China has some interest up there, so maybe its a good time for NATO to shore up that region. 

https://news.yahoo.com/nato-allies-wake-russian-supremacy-113953199.html

Edited November 16, 2022 by kevinkin

[Butschi]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I don't get information policy from Ukraine, they were so good by now with PR. Nobody normal would have pretensions for them if that would be accident, it is understandable they wage a war and missiles can misfire. Say sorry, pay reparations, promise they do everything to invastigate etc. Case closed.

But now they push this denial even more. It should be fairly simple to check which battery shot it- S-300 do not fly just like that on regular basis. This will be absolute feast fro Russian propaganda.

Indeed. Even if they are 100% certain it wasn't their missile, they could just say "We are convinced it wasn't one of ours but of course in war nothing is certain and we owe it to victims to investigate."

Oh well, easy to judge from afar...

 

[Zeleban]

Chernobaevka airport after release

[Seminole]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

There are only two ways a SAM missile would ever go towards Poland:

a) it was launched there deliberately in an "artillery mode"

b) it was chasing a target going towards Poland

It can't be an 'a' for a ton of obvious reasons, so only 'b' is reasonable.

But even if it was a russian missile alone - it's also reasonable that NATO will want to downplay the issue and kind of shift the blame without actually shifting the blame because the only other option is war with Russia and a lot more dead Polish citizens.

Realpolitik sucks and as I said there will be no response even if it's 100% of russian doing.

 

 

c) Malfunction.  
 

Now apply Occam’s Razor. 

[kraze]

3 hours ago, Tux said:

c) missile malfunction..?

d) accidental/mistaken launch?

If it was a Russian missile there will be some response. At least enough of one that Russia should be quietly wary of risking it happening again.

russian missiles were mass flying right in that area. An area which has power lines coming from Poland, severing which would be very in line with russian goals. So c and d are doubtful considering other variables.

Now if it was a russian missile there will be no response, just like there's no response for russian terrorist act in UK that resulted in deaths of two British citizens or killing 300 people in MH17 or shooting down Kaczynskyi's plane. Anything short of russian invasion will be downplayed for the sake of avoiding bigger war and that's exactly what happened today.

I mean russians have been doing things that couldn't be written off as accidents should the victim decided not to do it, all 3 examples above were very deliberate and a lot worse than what happened yesterday.

Nord stream attack wasn't accidental either.

Edited November 16, 2022 by kraze