How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here's a possible explanation why the missiles were flying in this area in the first place. After a preliminary verification, it seems that this map is not very accurate - there is around 40km between the Dobrotvir TPP and Przewodów. 

 

Now THAT might mean something. Intentionally targeting Electrical infrastructuure in Poland is i believe "an act  of war" in pretty much every book, ever. Do we know how close they got? Would it have hit the powerline if wasn't for the Ukrainian S-300? I realize we might not get that answer for a day or three.

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by dan/california

[womble]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

100Nobody gives a damn what propagandists say other than for joke. Officially they are not involved.

 

Also, I interpreted that particular mendacity as blaming the Ukrainians for the attack. Obviously, Poland should expect no better from its ally than to be targeted during a false-flag attack meant to escalate the war.

Of course, it's nonsense. But it's the kind of sick kick the scumbags that support Putin's adventurism get off on.

As to Article 5 and looking weak, there's a whole lot of difference between a stray missile killing NATO citizens on the territory of a NATO member state and a missile deliberately aimed to do the same thing. As it stands, I'd (if forced) bet on "screw-up" rather than "deliberate". We've seen drones go much further astray, IIRC. Russia continuing to deny, once there's evidence that it was their birds, just swings the pointer nearer to "deliberate" and demands a response.

Though I, too, wish this could be some sort of trigger to get behind the brave defenders of our way of life, properly, and with some actual conviction and understanding that this is a war to determine the world order for the next generation (or until China starts coming off the rails and begins to think that a "short victorious war" across the Taiwan Strait is just the thing to distract their mutinous population from their woes).

[dan/california]

Shipping Ukraine a hundred ATACAMS seems like a perfectly reasonable response.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

I don't Zelenskyi could lie here. The truth will be verified by the west very soon.

So I say Ukrainian government is 100% it was not anything Ukrainian.

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Shipping Ukraine a hundred ATACAMS seems like a perfectly reasonable response.

We can hope. Maybe in this next Ukraine aid top off.

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, kraze said:

And that's a huge mistake. They are an official position of Kremlin, every single word they say goes through a dozen of filters personally selected by putin.

Goebbels was even more official than the moustached guy himself after all

No, they are not. Simonian could serve as occasisonal Putin's mistress and inform half of the world she ate a dinner with Tsar week ago, but she is even less relevant than Lavrov at this stage.

I am sure people in NATO intelligence are aware of that and is processing things...

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Here's a possible explanation why the missiles were flying in this area in the first place. After a preliminary verification, it seems that this map is not very accurate - there is around 40km between the Dobrotvir TPP and Przewodów. 

Normally I avoid Sumlenny (he advertized nuclear attack at the start of the war...), but he seems to be on right trackso we need to wait. Office of PM said they will have a govenrment meeting at 9pm. I am frankly most troubled that crisis of this scale is beyond managiing capabilities of our current government and spokesmen. It's not the league of Muller and other PiS officials.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

We can hope. Maybe in this next Ukraine aid top off.

So it seems that Biden intends to take no chances and have the funds secured before the changes in the House? That is reassuring for 2023, but if that drags on longer, it might be a problem later on...

Also, tomorrow morning Sweden will announce it's military aid package to Ukraine, and there are strong rumors about Archers finally being delivered - fingers crossed for that!

[Huba]

So the session of BBN (Bureau of National Security) is over. For now the gov spokeperson confirmed that there was an explosion (duh!). Some army units are put on higher alert. President is consulting with NATO Secretary General about calling Article 4. Meanwhile, emergency government session is delayed but should start soon.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Huba

[Beleg85]

And we have 3-min announcement. Nothing new.

2 people killed, explosion, services are working and determining cause (!), president spoke with NATO Secretary General, ble bla. Terrible information policy... they really need to tell people something more or at least be there to cut some speculations. But no, they run away. Sorry for them being such amateurs folks, but we will need to wait for some meaningful info.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

And we have 3-min announcement. Nothing new.

2 people killed, explosion, services are working, president spoke with NATO Secretary General, ble bla. Terrible information policy...

The politicians know that they must

1) be seen to take action

2) take no action

3) wait a few days till everybody forgets about it

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

And we have 3-min announcement. Nothing new.

2 people killed, explosion, services are working, president spoke with NATO Secretary General, ble bla. Terrible information policy...

Maybe not, it is worth getting NATOs ducks in row instead of putting out something they will have to take back. Obviously that could change if Russia does something completely batbleep crazy like shooting more missiles anywhere near Poland. But as it stands a response with twice or four times the weight tomorrow is worth more than a light one today. And I m the guy who has been advocating for NATO to just join the war from the beginning, and still do.

[Markus86]

I read somewhere that one option is, to deploy additional nato troops for an enhanced air defense. Maybe even covering some part of Ukraine / border region.  

[Cpl Steiner]

I knew this thread would be red hot right now. Is this likely to be an accident? The explosion was in farmland.

[Beleg85]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Maybe not, it is worth getting NATOs ducks in row instead of putting out something they will have to take back. Obviously that could change if Russia does something completely batbleep crazy like shooting more missiles anywhere near Poland. But as it stands a response with twice or four times the weight tomorrow is worth more than a light one today. And I m the guy who has been advocating for NATO to just join the war from the beginning, and still do.

People in villages along the border freak out (I know, just called family there), some want to run away. Gov. told literally nothing new and actually raised echo for speculations. Spokesman is panicked (not his league). "Let's keep calm and wait till Prime Minister confere with his cabinet, Goodbye. "...like anyone in the cabinet who isn't already there would have anything to say on the matter. People are left without guidance.

19 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

3) wait a few days till everybody forgets about it

Would like to believe being 3 option and delibarete silence. But it is not, they don't know what to do so wait till crises pass away. Typical for this government, btw.

...Oh, and I see panickers aound the world already scrammble NATO jets from non-existing airfields. Splendid...

Edited November 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[The_MonkeyKing]

Ukraine government getting extremely specific that this not anything Ukrainians launched.

Meanwhile(I am not convinced it was S300):

 

[Huba]

Just now, Beleg85 said:

Would like to believe being 3 option and delibarete silence. But it is not, they don't know what to do so wait till crises pass away. Typical for this government, btw.

I mean, if they didn't have a contingency plan for this exact scenario ( no matter if it was RU or UA missile) , I'd be truly lost for words. Especially after 9 friggin' months! But it seems you are right, they seem a bit panicked

[Letter from Prague]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

...Oh, and I see panickers aound the world already scrammble NATO jets from non-existing airfields. Splendid...

I mean my friend who lives near Čáslav Air Force Base claims to have seen four of our Grippens take off and fly East. Bit far to Russia tho 

[Beleg85]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

I mean, if they didn't have a contingency plan for this exact scenario ( no matter if it was RU or UA missile) , I'd be truly lost for words. Especially after 9 friggin' months! But it seems you are right, they seem a bit panicked

They wait for Kaczyński and approval from Ziobro, that's what. They probably have continency plans, but this information policy is a joke.

They will work whole night figuring out how to use it in internal politics while being very vague about response; I expect large shift in public debate, on the scale of crossings of border by illegal migrants or accident of President's airplane at Smoleńsk.

ED. But wait, there a phone call between Duda and Biden takin place...perhaps there will some adult in the room finally. And I don't mean the former.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Beleg85

[JonS]

In all the breathlessness, let's not forget this little delight.

Cliffnotes: deliberate targeting of a government building, causing three deaths, which did not lead to war. Sane people know that accidents happen, and that accidents - even careless ones - aren't a great reason to dial it up to 11

Edited November 15, 2022 by JonS

[Tenses]

When I first saw the crater this looked big. But on second thought, if this would be full 500kg or 400kg warhead, I don't think that we would see what standed there. Really curious what was that exactly.

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[Beleg85]

7 minutes ago, JonS said:

In all the breathlessness, let's not forget this little delight.

Cliffnotes: deliberate targeting of a government building, causing three deaths, which did not lead to war. Sane people know that accidents happen, and that accidents - even careless ones - aren't a great reason to dial it up to 11

+1.

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

Good find.

There is also a village called "Ameryka" a dozen kms or so in the same district...just mentioning . Frankly I would not be surprised given Russian bardak.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

... by not supplying the Ukranians with any military materiel.

Or deciding SOMEDAY to actually win. As in game over, Russia is defeated and gone. No more pussyfooting that “they didn’t mean it”, or “only civilians were killed”, or they might attack us with their mighty ferocious devastated military”, “or the best, “Ukraine can attack Russians with our weapons, but only in Ukraine because Russia is sacred.” 
 

We’ve had lengthy debates about nukes here, and lengthy discussions about how much Ukrainian territory is wise to regain so as not to upset the fragile Russian psyche. We’ve applauded the delivery of much Western or compatible Soviet weapon systems to keep Ukraine fighting, while lamenting the lack of war winning weapons - even those that would only be used within Ukraine; however intrinsically bizarre that rule is. Speaking of which, Russia gets to lay waste to the largest entirely European country without compunction while Ukraine is saddled with a variety of rules it must follow in order to remain in favor. And it must demonstrate that it can have some victories too. “Don’t back slide, or show lowered morale while you are being tortured and bombed into freezing rubble, and saways remember those Brit stiff upper lips in WWII - you must too! Or we might get tired of supporting you and demand appeasement of Russia.”

 

No apologies for being blunt. This how many MONTHS of relentless war crimes, crimes against humanity,, sheer mass human suffering? And no ATACMS? No official designation of Russia as a Terrorist State? I sincerely appreciate the finely reasoned abstractions about the need for caution, carefully laid out here by our best minds. I really do. And the absolutely admirable and correct defense against demonizing all Russians, because many are not demonic and doing so lowers us to their level. 
 

But there comes a time…do you doubt it?

Edited November 15, 2022 by NamEndedAllen
Spelling!

[akd]

IF the missile fragment shown is actually from the scene of the explosion (and we don’t actually have any proof they are connected other than Israeli twitter account posting them together without attribution) then most obvious explanation is errant Ukrainian S-300 missile from defense of Dobrotvirska TPP not far to other side of border.  Surprising that people are rushing to deny this as if this puts the “blame” on Ukraine.  If Russia is attacking civilian infrastructure right next to Polish border, they are responsible.

Edited November 15, 2022 by akd

[NamEndedAllen]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Cliffnotes: deliberate targeting of a government building, causing three deaths, which did not lead to war. Sane people know that accidents happen,

That was a case of incredible precision weapons missing (or not?) a target within a small area in one city. This is in another freaking COUNTRY. After months of claiming we will defend every INCH of NATO soil. 
 

I do appreciate your reminder to stay calm and not overreact. But can we not feel the water getting warmer and warmer and warmer? Recall all the other “accidents” and denials, as well as the ongoing cyber warfare waged against all Allied nations. Even now. In my opinion, humble as it may be, there comes a time when a clear and strong reaction must be made, that even “accidents” - perhaps *even* accidents will absolutely not be tolerated.