How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[paxromana]

2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

+1 for the D&D reference!!  Been playing D&D in its various incarnations since 1974.  

As have I! Around the same time I subscribed to S&T Magazine and bought Panzerblitz! Loing time roleplayer and wargamer (tho much better at the former than the latter). 

[Battlefront.com]

You guys might find this interesting, or maybe not   I wrote this on February 23rd, 2015.  That was only a few days after the official conclusion of the Battle for Dabaltseve.  This was based on OSINT and discussions in our Black Sea Beta Forum.  I have not edited even one word of this:

=============

Article posted by Tymchuk about Briukov's assessment of the battle, with obvious support from Tymchuk:

http://inforesist.org/smi-poteri-texniki-vsu-za-2014-god/

I do not agree with one of the two main points. The point about "a few more things like this and we'll have no vehicles left" is a fair one. However, saying that Debaltseve is comparable to Ilovaisk in terms of net results is way off the mark. There is no question, at all, that Ilovaisk was a disaster because of three factors:

1. Major losses of both equipment and personnel for Ukraine

2. Major losses of territory, including portions that were of strategic importance to Ukraine's war effort (i.e. the border area)

3. Minor losses of equipment and personnel for Russia and the separatists

In Debaltseve the opposite is the case for points 2 and 3. Separatist and Russian losses in the Debaltseve and airport battles were very large indeed. For point 2, Ukraine lost no territory that was of major significance to the war effort, and the territory lost was quite small. In fact, straightening out the front is beneficial to Ukraine. Further, advocating a pull back a while ago would have amounted to the same thing, so obviously even those who agree with Tymchuk's report do not consider the loss of the terrain itself important.

So that leaves us with point 1. This is more difficult to assess. Were the losses at Debaltseve and the airport overall an acceptable exchange for the damage caused to the separatist and Russian forces, or more generally to the Russian war effort on the world stage? This is not easily arrived at. However, my inclination is to say a qualified "yes".

I think Ukraine could have done a better job supporting the Debaltseve salient earlier in January. While it is true that Ukraine arrested, and severely punished, the attempts to cut it off at the neck, there really needed to be a serious counter attack to widen the path to Debaltseve. Militarily the position was not viable for several weeks and the amount of pain being inflicted on the Russian/separatists should not have been the reason for staying put. In other words, the path should have been improved or there should have been a withdrawal sooner. This is in agreement with the poor thinking about the logistics side of the force in the salient. If their equipment can't be kept operational, then collapse is inevitable.

A week or so before the withdrawal one of our testers asked why the separatists/Russians had switched to attacking Debaltseve directly. I said that it appeared to be because they found the going too tough at the neck because of tight terrain and very good Ukrainian artillery. Neither situation existed down at the other end and so it presented the better opportunity for success. And clearly that was the case.

To me the obvious plan was to keep the neck sufficiently constricted so as to weaken the Debaltseve force as it was directly assaulted. Eventually the frontal attacks would sap the force of its ammo and functional equipment. Eventually there would come a tipping point and they would slaughter the Ukrainian forces as they retreated. That part, thankfully, did not happen and so the Russian/separatists were left with a fairly poor net result IMHO.

I do hope we see Ukraine move to a more proactive war of mobility instead of these fixed battles. As much as they have helped Ukraine kill off a large number of the enemy, it's not going to win the war. But I do understand that Ukraine's best chance for success in a war of mobility is like it was back in July. And that is to hit the line pretty much everywhere concurrently. There is no way for the separatists alone to resist such an attack and the net result will have to be another major commitment of Russian forces. This time, however, Ukraine should be on guard for that better than it was before.

Steve

============

 

As for how my observations compared with learned studies after the battle, I found this study written in 2020 with a ton more details than we had at the time of the battle.  Read through it and you'll see some of the parallels to this war now that I got an inkling of while the war was happening:

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/battle-debaltseve-hybrid-army-classic-battle-encirclement

Things like this:

Quote

Six days of continuous artillery shelling finally came to an end on February 2.[61] The first phase of the battle of Debaltseve was over and with the Russian hybrid forces temporarily suspending offensive operations, the intensity of combat slowly but steadily decreased.[62] Some of the regular Russian units who had been involved in the fighting over the previous days, were identified as the 8th Guards- and 18th Guards Motor-Rifle brigades, as well as 25th Spetsnaz regiment, all deriving from Russia’s Southern Military District. Along with 5th tank- and 83rd air assault brigade all the way from Eastern Military District, some of its personnel heaving distinct Asian features.[63] The latter losing a Russian Orlan-10 drone above Debaltseve on February 3.[64] That day a one-day-ceasefire was agreed upon between the separatist forces and the Ukrainian units, although around midday salvos of Grad rockets were again unleashed upon the city’s defenders. By that time an estimated 8.000 civilians had already fled the Debaltseve area.[65] While Ukrainian forces kept separatist concentration areas under sustained artillery shelling, shortage of available combat troops forced them to maintain a static defensive posture. The Russians, meanwhile, continued pouring in fresh units and equipment, in preparation for the second phase of the battle.[66]

And this:

Quote

The following tank clash, on February 12, resulted in Russia’s 5th tank brigade losing 8 of their T-72Bs, against 4 Ukrainian T-64BMs “Bulat” tanks

And this:

Quote

With Russian forces increasingly incapable of replacing rising losses, different units were merged together and continued the attack, despite ongoing artillery shelling.[89] On February 14 therefore, elements of the 136th Guards motor rifle brigade and 25th Spetsnaz regiment who had occupied Lohvynovo, were relieved by a combined formation from 27th Guards motor rifle brigade and 217th Guards airborne regiment.[90]

Sound familiar?  I thought so   This following also sounds familiar, which is that Russian artillery is dangerous if it's not actively countered:

Quote

Early morning next day started with massive artillery strikes all along the Frontline, leading to a record number totalling 101 artillery strikes on February 16th, including by a number of massive 203mm 2S7 “Pion” self-propelled guns.[96] Ukrainians claimed that for every salvo they fired, they received 10 to 15 salvos in return. The Russians especially demonstrated their advanced Reconnaissance Fire Complex, culminating in an increased sensor-to-shooter capability. Effectively linking artillery to intelligence, resulting in precision targeting in near-real time through the employment of radars for conducting counter-battery fire, Electronic Warfare systems and especially UAVs.[97] Accounts of Ukrainian soldiers being targeted by artillery, just seconds after being spotted by a UAV or after making use of their phones, were numerous over the course of the battle.

There's a lot more good stuff in that article.  It shows, pretty clearly, the lessons Ukraine took away from the battle and used to shape the force that met Russia almost exactly 7 years later to the day.

Steve

[BlackMoria]

8 minutes ago, paxromana said:

As have I! Around the same time I subscribed to S&T Magazine and bought Panzerblitz! Loing time roleplayer and wargamer (tho much better at the former than the latter). 

Damn!  I have a library of over a hundred SPI games/games from S&T magazine.  We obviously ran in the same type of gaming circles, just on different continents.  Salute to a fellow wargamer/roleplayer.  

[dan/california]

https://www.leonardodrs.com/what-we-do/products-and-services/m-shorad/

We need to send half the inventory of these new Shorad Strykers to Ukraine. There isn't anything supersecret on them that I can tell. It actually sounds like they are stop gaps until lasers, or some other technology matures.

[FancyCat]

As an article from a U.S official noting a peace deal is likely circling around, a reminder how much it may or may not come true.

 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

As an article from a U.S official noting a peace deal is likely circling around, a reminder how much it may or may not come true.

 

There is very clearly a peace faction in the U.S. government. Hopefully they keep on being the smaller faction. Russia has to lose and be seen to lose. It is the only way to discourage them from trying this again. How they can think Ukraine can't win after Kharkiv, and with Kherson in the process of falling is beyond me. The off the scale war crimes demand no less. Not to mention the entire non proliferation regime. I suspect at least ten or fifteen countries have the finger hovering over the button to start a maximum effort program to join the nuclear club if they decide it is the only way to avoid a similar experience to the one Ukraine has just had. That will NOT make the long term prospects better.

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

 

[FancyCat]

 

 

[kraze]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Debaltseve

Just to put some things into perspective about how our army still was at the time of Debaltseve

One of my friends was serving in the battalion of Kulchytsky at the time. Because it was the first 'new' battalion of the army that came to be and started enlisting as early as March of 2014 - it was also the longest target for all the volunteer help, so guys had the best personal equipment among whole AFU in 2015: american uniforms and boots, consumer grade IR vision, hunting aiming sights, piccatini rails for AKs etc - basically anything a civilian could legally buy here. You can tell they looked impressive compared to most of the army wearing Dubok and old AKs.
So during the battle of Debaltseve in the middle of the night they were called to the local HQ on short notice - turns out a superimportant general had a secret visit to share the battle plan that will be put into action immediately. So that general and whatever supporting officers were showing everybody present the map and talking about how different types of forces will do A, B and C depending on the role. And the most important and toughest task was to be performed by specops that included high risk behind the lines sabotage. Because it's so important - everybody is ordered to leave but Kulchytsky's guys, so the general absolutely seriously explains their "specops" orders to them then says "godspeed" and leaves.

Apparently he was told they had specops guys in the area by a whatever guy in the chain of command that had to organize the presence of said specops but because actual 'specops' were in short numbers to put it very lightly - he simply pointed at the best equipped guys they had that did look like specops. Kulchytsky's were yesterday's civilians with 8 months of combat experience gained with little to no prior training in the very best case.

Of course he was laughing while telling that story after the fact, but obviously you can tell at the time anything in AFU was held together nigh literally by the yellow duct tape and it was quite grim.

Edited November 10, 2022 by kraze

[Haiduk]

Snihurivka liberated - troops of 131st separate recon battalion in the town.

Interesting that white cross sign on their Kozak-2, probably they were moved to Kherson direction from Kharkiv oblast.

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Haiduk

[Maciej Zwolinski]

While it is perfectly understandable, why the Russians are pulling out of the Kherson bridgehead, I am not sure why Shoigu and Suroviking thought it is a good idea to publicly declare this on the TV, while the withdrawal is still underway. The Ukrainians gained some additional clarity on the Russian plans and and it could not have been good on morale of the Russian troops.

Did they want to make the declaration for political purposes, to try to spin  it as another "goodwill gesture"? Or a tacit offer of semi-truce to Ukrainians, alolng the lines of "if you do not shoot now, we will go quietly anyway"? 

 

 

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers near the front line in the Kherson region. STRINGER/REUTERS"

[Zeleban]

 

Who said that the Humvee is vulnerable to a mine explosion?

The following tweet has a top view of this event. Judging by the force of the explosion, it was an anti-tank mine

[Pete Wenman]

Useful thread on what RU has being doing to cross the Dnipro at Kherson

 

 

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, sross112 said:

If they do move on it, it will be fog eating snow urban style. The Russians on the other hand, I agree with Kraze here, will smash the city with everything they can throw at it no matter what. 

Very good point here and there is a precedent-Mosul. The combined Iraqi and western forces used a very incremental hybrid approach in that battle.  The city was largely destroyed and it took 9 months but casualties were minimized compared to other urban nightmares.

[Battlefront.com]

I noticed I didn't put the interesting observations of Russian artillery capabilities into my previous post, but instead pasted the same information as the previous quoted part.  Here it is:

Quote

Early morning next day started with massive artillery strikes all along the Frontline, leading to a record number totalling 101 artillery strikes on February 16th, including by a number of massive 203mm 2S7 “Pion” self-propelled guns.[96] Ukrainians claimed that for every salvo they fired, they received 10 to 15 salvos in return. The Russians especially demonstrated their advanced Reconnaissance Fire Complex, culminating in an increased sensor-to-shooter capability. Effectively linking artillery to intelligence, resulting in precision targeting in near-real time through the employment of radars for conducting counter-battery fire, Electronic Warfare systems and especially UAVs.[97] Accounts of Ukrainian soldiers being targeted by artillery, just seconds after being spotted by a UAV or after making use of their phones, were numerous over the course of the battle.

That Debaltseve document is fascinating to read now.  It has all the same elements, though with several major differences (in the positive) for the Ukrainians.  Not surprisingly, many of those differences are precisely why Ukraine is winning this war.

It was clear to me before the war, and clearer to me now, that Ukraine learned a lot of lessons from the 8 years of fighting against Russia *and* translated those lessons into meaningful policy and implementation.  Russia, on the other hand, seems to think everything went so well in 2014/2015 that it didn't need to change much of anything.  The analysts bought into the Russian view and that was the wrong thing to do.

Steve

[panzermartin]

It's rather strange that Russians having invested and held so long in Kherson area, decided to leave now just before winter frozing the front lines. 

But this could signal entering a new phase in their campaign. Intensifying the long range terror strikes against UKR infrastructure, during harsh winter, while pausing operationaly and holding just the bare necessary, guarding the access to the South and Crimea (they will comfortably hold on the left bank in Kherson for infinite time I think ) and fortifying whatever the gained in eastern Ukraine. 

Seems they are only hoping for negotiations at this point. 

 

 

[Zeleban]

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Who said that the Humvee is vulnerable to a mine explosion?

The following tweet has a top view of this event. Judging by the force of the explosion, it was an anti-tank mine

It's famous US fighter, also known from other videos. Really intense footage. Driver was KIA, unfortunatelly; I think you can see him still moving on drone camera. 

 

More videos from liberation of Snihurivka:

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1590678075020177408

Reportedly Ukrainians intensively shell Russian positions along the frontline and on river itself today; it will be interesting to see if Russians will manage to break contact on first line and witdraw inwards.

[Zeleban]

Many on this site talk about the strong moral decline of Russians caused by the abandonment of Kherson. I do not think so. I am sure that soon we will hear statements from Russian propagandists about the brilliant victory of General Surovikin, who did not allow the troops to be destroyed on the Kherson bridgehead.

[Zeleban]

 

[keas66]

So  I'm starting to get the impression that the Ukrainians are advancing  and not hanging back in the Kherson area  - Attempting to put further pressure on the Russians where they can without getting sucked into  a trap one hopes  .

Do we expect a modern day version of the retreat at Borisov  or have the Russians already gotten out everything they want to keep before making the announcement yesterday to retreat . ?

[Calamine Waffles]

14 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Many on this site talk about the strong moral decline of Russians caused by the abandonment of Kherson. I do not think so. I am sure that soon we will hear statements from Russian propagandists about the brilliant victory of General Surovikin, who did not allow the troops to be destroyed on the Kherson bridgehead.

That narrative is already forming with even Kadyrov praising the decision to withdraw.

[kevinkin]

Sorry if this was posted before, but Milley's comment are being picked up by every news source:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-europe-army-joint-chiefs-of-staff-688e99d37f25ac8340b6a96a79a89abf

He said as many as 40,000 Ukrainian civilians and “well over” 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war, now in its ninth month. “Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side,” Milley added.

“There has been a tremendous amount of suffering, human suffering,” he said at The Economic Club of New York.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday he was open to peace talks with Russia to end the war but only on the condition that Russia return all of Ukraine’s occupied lands, provide compensation for war damage and face prosecution for war crimes.

Perhaps the focus has been on Zelenskyy's heroic statement and not on the quoted Ukrainian casualties. Is the US giving Zelenskyy a (not so) gentle tap on the shoulder? 

Edited November 10, 2022 by kevinkin