How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Markus86]

You must watch until the end. 

 

[Beleg85]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ages ago (i.e. several weeks) I argued that Ukraine needs to think long and hard about taking back pre-2022 territory, especially Crimea.  I never said they shouldn't do it, I just said that they have to be super careful to take into consideration what Russia might do in response.  Which will be nearly impossible to do, but it has to be at least attempted.  If Ukraine didn't think Russia would do something to retaliate against this particular attack then they hopefully will learn a lesson from it.  If they did anticipate Russia's next move, then I hope they guessed correctly.  If they did, then I expect they have something else planned.

Steve

It's difficult to tell, but something tells me this particular attack could not have best cost/benefit outcome if we consider political factor.

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, so WHY is all of this hair splitting important?  Because of what TheCapt has been banging on and on about in his polite Canadian way... we have to be very careful to not presume that Russia is predetermined to Suck or at least Suck as badly as it has been so far.

We all agree that Putin has made some horribly bad decisions and we think horribly bad information was a big part of it.  If those decisions were simply "delusional", then it's probable that this aspect of the war will continue.  Delusional people tend to become more delusional, not less, in stressful situations.

However, if Putin is not delusional, but merely poorly informed, there's a chance he'll figure this out and take steps to secure better information to base decisions on.  If that happens it is logical to presume it will make the war more difficult to fight as Russia should then make fewer mistakes or at least lessen the severity of the mistakes. 

In fact, I think we're already seeing this happening.  My tea leaf reading concludes that Russia's catastrophic losses and limitations are being presented to Putin fairly accurately.  I also suspect someone is telling him a reasonable picture of Ukraine's capabilities, militarily and as a nation of people.  This was likely achieved by putting the fear of windows and lead poisoning into people who previously reported crap info to him.  Which means things like Bakhmut attacks and partial mobilization are the result of informed decisions, not delusions.  The difference is important because it may mean Bakhmut and cannon fodder are knowingly part of a larger strategy which we aren't aware of yet, not the product of abject stupidity and/or egos.

Steve

There are several other super important factor beyond information constraints  if we try to reconstruct tyrant's vision of military reality. One is internal power struggles. Bakhmut assault may be good example of this intra-apparatus rivalry. Other is inherent fear of loosing face, which can be deadly to any autocrat. Both may have (and did have) massive influence how Putin wage this war.

So while Putin may be more rational now- mobilization, industrial efforts, unififed command, real war instead of fancy SMO- all tell that unfortunatelly Russians start to get their pieces together. Still two other constraints are there; let's hope they will bring doom on this botoxed midget.

[chuckdyke]

 

[Beleg85]

13 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

You must watch until the end. 

Version with ENG subs:

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1586662972386156544

Strong Abu Hajaar vibes.

 

Note 950 Muscovite casualties claimed by AFU, largest in one day. Of course it is much infalted, but may mean significant increase in killed Russians. People speculate that it may effect of Russian microoffensive on Vuhledar axis. Crews of damaged ships were probably not included.

[Bulletpoint]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Version with ENG subs:

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1586662972386156544

Strong Abu Hajaar vibes.

 

Note 950 Muscovite casualties claimed by AFU, largest in one day. Of course it is much infalted

Maybe the number is not that much inflated, when you compare to the clown car video you just posted... it's not hard to imagine that an army that can't even drive straight down a road would suffer heavy losses in actual combat.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Haiduk]

The flight of UKR Su-24M. Before the war theese aircraft were in 7th tactical aviation brigade - two bomber squadrons per three flights of 4 Su-24M and one recon-bomber squadron - three flights of 4 Su-24MR. Total 24 Su-24M and 12 Su-24MR.

According to Orix 12 Su-24M/MR already lost. 

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

Nice demonstration of the demining process with the UR-77 'Meteorit'

[Beleg85]

13 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe the number is not that much inflated, when you compare to the clown car video you just posted... it's not hard to imagine that an army that can't even drive straight down a road would suffer heavy losses in actual combat.

To be fair Ukrainians also endured terrible driving accidents, and roads in autumn are now getting even more dangerous. Since artillery is so deadly in this war, many people died simply driving wildly with supplies to the frontlines. One reporter told that in quiet sectors more people may die monthly as results of this issue than in Russian strikes; real dead zone is 1-10 kms behind the trenches, where both cars and armour are forced to push the pedals to the maximum.

[Haiduk]

Rare footage of UKR naval forces in action - UKR medium landing ship "Yuriy Olefirenko" (pr.773, NATO Polnochny-С class) shelled from Ochakiv or Mykolaiv area Russian troops, deployed on Kinburn spit

Eight theese ships were designed and built in Poland in 1971-72, so as weapon they have uncommon for Soviet army 140 mm MLRS - Polish analog of old Soviet BM-14 MLRS, designed specilly for export purpose. 

Pr.773 has two launchers per 18 rockets each 

"Yuriy Olefirenko" - single landing ship, remained in UKR Naval Forces after 2014. In June this ship was under MLRS strike in Dnipro-Bug estuary, allegedly strike was conducted from Russian big landing ship, but rockets missed

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Buggy of 113th TD brigade (Kharkiv oblast)

 

[Beleg85]

Paint-job on Himars imitating meme:

 

[Taranis]

 

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

To be fair Ukrainians also endured terrible driving accidents, and roads in autumn are now getting even more dangerous. Since artillery is so deadly in this war, many people died simply driving wildly with supplies to the frontlines. One reporter told that in quiet sectors more people may die monthly as results of this issue than in Russian strikes; real dead zone is 1-10 kms behind the trenches, where both cars and armour are forced to push the pedals to the maximum.

Thnx for this info, I would never have guessed that it is such a big problem. 

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Paint-job on Himars imitating meme:

 

Looks like a more modern meme inspired take on the classic sharks mouth livery.

Like it.

[Haiduk]

Rural roads in Kherson oblast now. UKR vehicle is driving along the village street, aside the road dead Russians soldiers lay.

Background sound is "A gnat" - joke song of Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) of WWII times:

"....as has fell our gnat down to a pulpit

and has broke Moscal's ribs and bones [Moscal is ukr. equial of Moscovite].

[We] Burried the Moscal at the side of road - 

Arms are visible, legs are visible, horns are visible

[We] Burried the Moscal like a dog - 

Arms are visible, legs are visible, arse is visible"

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian trailers move dozens of concrete small bunkers, allegedly for establishing of defensive line on Kinburn spit, Kherson oblast

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

UKR is starting to get systems very comparable to Patriot. This system wins some and loses some compared to the Patriot. Also depending on the Patriot version

Max range 120km 

"TLDR, The Franco-Italian system is a more mobile design which features a shorter-range missile that is geared for the interception of high-speed and highly-maneuverable targets. The American Patriot is a less-mobile system that has much greater emphasis on theater missile defense than its European counterpart. Its missile is larger, has a much more capable seeker, but isn’t quite as maneuverable. Due to the size of the PAC-2 missile, the American battery has a smaller capacity that is ready to be fired from get-go compared to the SAMP/T (32 PAC-2 vs. up to 48 for SAMP/T)."

Link to a good comparison to Patrioit https://qr.ae/pvqka3

 

[Battlefront.com]

Nice video showing the Wagner Line defensive works and discussing what they mean for Ukrainian operations.  Note that the author makes the mistake of presuming that the line will be adequately manned by Russian forces, just how the defenses only really work if it is manned.  He also doesn't get into the low level of detail that we do in terms of what Ukraine has at its disposal to effectively neutralize manned sections.  Still, it's worth watching:

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

To be fair Ukrainians also endured terrible driving accidents, and roads in autumn are now getting even more dangerous. Since artillery is so deadly in this war, many people died simply driving wildly with supplies to the frontlines. One reporter told that in quiet sectors more people may die monthly as results of this issue than in Russian strikes; real dead zone is 1-10 kms behind the trenches, where both cars and armour are forced to push the pedals to the maximum.

True about Ukraine not being immune from driving accidents nor the reason for it.  Though in the case of the above video, the driver simply sucked at driving   That was a paved road and he allowed his right wheels to get into the shoulder, which could be a problem any time but with the soaked ground, heavy vehicle, and speed... disaster.

This vehicle had an O mark on it and another had a V.  Fun to see the marks still kicking around and being mixed together.

Steve

[Haiduk]

DPR and Russian troops inreaced activity on Avdiivka and Vuhledar directions

Yestarday DPR forces - elements of 1st MRBr, recon-assault battalion "Sparta", and motor-riflle assault battalion "Somali" after intensive artilelry and MLRS fire advanced north from Donetsk airport and came to line Vodiane - Opytne villages. They managed to seize eastern part of Vodiane without anny significant resistance.

Today clashes continued, according to report of Russian TG Romanov92 in the mid of day UKR troops repelled further advance of DPR foprces in Vodiane. 

Video of 1st MRBr of DPR how they advanced to Vodiane

And their claimed gains (left - Vodiane, right - Opytne)

More tough situation on Vuhledar direction. Elements of Russian 136th MRBr (from Dagestan Republic) of 58th CAA, manned by "chmobiks" and armor together with DPR forces - 11 motor-rifle regoment "Vostok" and Operative-combat tactical  formation "Cascade" (combined group from special units from army, internal troops, police and MGB) launched massive atatck on UKR positions around Pavlivka - Vuhledar direction. 

Rybar claimed after two day of fightiing "allied" troops broke through UKR defense on 3,5 km.

Khodakovskiy, former commander of "Vostok", reported "Cascade" troops seized southern and south-eastern part of Pavlivka and mopping-up the village. But he says the assault in going hard and only for previous day his unit has 6 dead.

Locals and some UKR sources refute Russian claims and say that they just could push UKR troops from gardens area in SE from Pavlivka

 

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

Thnx for this info, I would never have guessed that it is such a big problem. 

There are a remarkable number road casualties even in peacetime exercises. Twenty year old corporals that haven't slept in two or three days are not the world's best drivers.

[dan/california]

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Khodakovskiy, former commander of "Vostok", reported "Cascade" troops seized southern and south-eastern part of Pavlivka and mopping-up the village. But he says the assault in going hard and only for previous day his unit has 6 dead.

Locals and some UKR sources refute Russian claims and say that they just could push UKR troops from gardens area in SE from Pavlivka

Thanks for detailed post, this Vuhledar offensive is a mysterious one, as Russian sources did cherished it heavily.

Btw. do you know what Ukrainians are saying about cause of rapid increase in enemy casualties? Almost 1000 a day is very sharp raise from 300-500 a day.

 

About northern front- this account try to build some picture out of scarsce source material. It seems Ukrainians are slowly getting upper hand on the hills west of Krasna river, and may be several km from Svatove (Pl, autotranslate):

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. do you know what Ukrainians are saying about cause of rapid increase in enemy casualties? Almost 1000 a day is very sharp raise from 300-500 a day.

Our twitters say many of theese losses are from Pavlivka and Bakhmut. But I think, 950 is overestimation.

PS. According to some UKR twitters situation around Pavlivka is becoming worse. Too many Russians.  

[dan/california]

50 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Thanks for detailed post, this Vuhledar offensive is a mysterious one, as Russian sources did cherished it heavily.

Btw. do you know what Ukrainians are saying about cause of rapid increase in enemy casualties? Almost 1000 a day is very sharp raise from 300-500 a day.

I saw a single tweet about a convoy of newly arrived mobiks getting a dose of the tungsten rain. Of course I can't find it again. It was in southeastern Kherson towards the limit of Himars range. Of course I can't find it again.

More generally we have all expected the pushing of utterly unprepared units to the battlefield to increase Russian casualties, We might have underestimated the size of the effect. Think about how quickly you can get a whole battalion wiped in CMBS if you do something truly stupid. Now imagine a battalion of mobiks with doddering/drunk/nonexistent officers actually doing those things.

 

Edit: found it on ISW, was Bakmuht.

" The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision strike against Russian forces, who were preparing for another attack, south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk on October 28.[45] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike killed approximately 300 Russian personnel and that Russian forces evacuated 60 wounded personnel to a medical facility in Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff subsequently did not report any Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut in either its morning or its evening reports.[47]"

"

Edited October 30, 2022 by dan/california