How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

15 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Where do you stand on body armor?

 

Saddens me greatly there's a need for this.

Agreed, although at least Ukraine has a good reason for putting kids in body armour.

[Huba]

Here are some interesting numbers regarding public support for Ukraine in US. I don't think these were brought up here during the discussion about it's future after midterms:

Quote

Majorities continue to support US economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia
(80%), accepting Ukrainian refugees into the United States (76%), providing additional
arms and military supplies to the Ukrainian government (72%), and giving economic
assistance to Ukraine (71%).
• Nearly 4 in 10 support sending US troops to defend Ukraine (38%).
• By a six-to-four ratio, Americans say the United States should support Ukraine for as
long as it takes, even if American households will have to pay higher gas and food prices
in consequence. However, there are significant partisan differences.
• Nearly two-thirds think the invasion sets a precedent that other countries can launch
wars for territorial gain (64%).
• An even larger majority believes the Russian invasion will encourage China to invade
Taiwan (76%).

Original study: Few signs of "Ukraine Fatigue" among American public

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by Huba

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

There's some real move towards confiscating frozen RU assets (estimated at $300B) and using it for financing Ukraine (tweets are from a convenient UA aggregator, but it was reported by various more reliable sources too):

 

Ukraine needs about $5 billion a month to fund itself. It would be fairly straight forward to take the lowest hanging fruit of Russian assets to fund its needs. And elegant, too, as there will be some extremely bitter feelings in Russia towards Putin for gutting their overseas nest eggs with his war.

[OldSarge]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here are some interesting numbers regarding public support for Ukraine in US. I don't think these were brought up here during the discussion about it's future after midterms:

Original study: Few signs of "Ukraine Fatigue" among American public

 

Thanks! I hadn't seen that article before. It does tend to track with what I hear from folks around here, but most people I know are veterans or have family currently serving so a slightly biased group.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Ukraine needs about $5 billion a month to fund itself. It would be fairly straight forward to take the lowest hanging fruit of Russian assets to fund its needs. And elegant, too, as there will be some extremely bitter feelings in Russia towards Putin for gutting their overseas nest eggs with his war.

I'm too lazy to look it up now, but there's also talk about EU providing Ukraine with 1.5B Euro per month during 2023. Combined with similar pledge from US, and other sources of financing, it should see them through hopefully. But yeah, unlocking these funds would be a game-changer, and realistically the only form of reparations they could count on.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Huba

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

Thanks! I hadn't seen that article before. It does tend to track with what I hear from folks around here, but most people I know are veterans or have family currently serving so a slightly biased group.

The issue isn’t public support..which has remained steady. The issue is that parts of the likely incoming majority in the House are pushing to lower aid and the likely Speaker isn’t…shall we say…made of the sternest stuff. McConnell is signaling that a large bipartisan coalition in the Senate won’t have it no matter who is in charge but like me, he’s not counting on public opinion to sway a large section of Republican House members: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/21/gop-congressional-leaders-split-on-ukraine-aid

[Beleg85]

25 minutes ago, Huba said:

Here are some interesting numbers regarding public support for Ukraine in US. I don't think these were brought up here during the discussion about it's future after midterms:

Interesting find, I hope Republicans will know how to read polls.

 

Rememeber this "Maginot Line" disscused lately? Well, it may not be that big it seems...

 

[OldSarge]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The issue isn’t public support..which has remained steady. The issue is that parts of the likely incoming majority in the House are pushing to lower aid and the likely Speaker isn’t…shall we say…made of the sternest stuff. McConnell is signaling that a large bipartisan coalition in the Senate won’t have it no matter who is in charge but like me, he’s not counting on public opinion to sway a large section of Republican House members: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/21/gop-congressional-leaders-split-on-ukraine-aid

Yes, I certainly agree with that. The early indicators are that the House will be at best stalled, especially if they apply the 'Hastert' rule. It won't be a very productive House and as you say, they won't be concerned with public opinion. Instead focusing on the revenge tour. H.L. Mencken is somewhere saying 'I told ya so!'.

Edited October 21, 2022 by OldSarge
Got the rules mixed..

[Huba]

I run across some interesting RUMINT regarding the Polish material support for Ukraine. None of this is confirmed, and most likely won't be until the war is over, but some numbers began to float in Polish twittersphere lately.
Rumor has it we sent even more BMP-1s than the declared 300 tanks. This means that away went all our legacy IFVs that were in running condition. Also, the number of delivered 2S1s is allegedly above 100 (semi-official number was about 20) - these are old of course, but modernized with world quality TOPAZ BMS.
And a cherry on top of that, there are supposedly 3 battalions of Krab in Ukraine already, meaning 54 vehicles (minus 1 confirmed destroyed).

Edited October 21, 2022 by Huba

[Beleg85]

If somebody did not see this last video from group of mobiks, it's worth to watch. Pretty funny, officers left them just like that. "Between bare steppe and star-dotted night sky..."

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

I run across some interesting RUMINT regarding the Polish material support for Ukraine. None of this is confirmed, and most likely won't be until the war is over, but some numbers began to float in Polish twittersphere lately.
Rumor has it we sent even more BMP-1s than the declared 300 tanks. This means that away went all our legacy IFVs that were in running condition. Also, the number of delivered 2S1s is allegedly above 100 (semi-official number was about 20) - these are old of course, but modernized with world quality TOPAZ BMS.
And a cherry on top of that, there are supposedly 3 battalions of Krab in Ukraine already, meaning 54 vehicles (minus 1 confirmed destroyed).

Apparently even more Krabs will go to Ukraine as part of formal deal. There are also valid rumours of specialy tailored modifications for radar and ISR equipment, and it seems we finally found our Grads at Kherson front (also in higher numbers than reported). I must admitt this policy of keeping public in the dark about almost everything that goes to Ukraine is one of few bright spots of current MoD.

Somebody in the comments regarding newly procured equipment even speculated that if war will last well into 2023, it is not excluded that we will see K239 Chunmoo being tested in Ukraine...it looked like wishfull thinking, but who knows what future will bring?

Edited October 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

37 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Apparently even more Krabs will go to Ukraine as part of formal deal. There are also valid rumours of specialy tailored modifications for radar and ISR equipment, and it seems we finally found our Grads at Kherson front (also in higher numbers than reported). I must admitt this policy of keeping public in the dark about almost everything that goes to Ukraine is one of few bright spots of current MoD.

Can't agree more, there's hardly anything to criticize in the way our gov is handling this.

 

37 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Somebody in the comments regarding newly procured equipment even speculated that if war will last well into 2023, it is not excluded that we will see K239 Chunmoo being tested in Ukraine...it looked like wishfull thinking, but who knows what future will bring?

Płatek (the Armaments Agency spokesman for the non-Poles  ) also said that on top of K239 and additional HIMARS, MoD will also continue ordering Langustas (upgraded RM-70). Now I'll be damned if these are for our own use. 
My personal pet idea is sending a battalion or two of Rosomak in Hitfist 30P version. I would nicely pave the way for actually sending western AFVs, and we just prolonged the license till 2028, so the loss could be easily made up for.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

49 minutes ago, Huba said:

I run across some interesting RUMINT regarding the Polish material support for Ukraine. None of this is confirmed, and most likely won't be until the war is over, but some numbers began to float in Polish twittersphere lately.
Rumor has it we sent even more BMP-1s than the declared 300 tanks. This means that away went all our legacy IFVs that were in running condition. Also, the number of delivered 2S1s is allegedly above 100 (semi-official number was about 20) - these are old of course, but modernized with world quality TOPAZ BMS.
And a cherry on top of that, there are supposedly 3 battalions of Krab in Ukraine already, meaning 54 vehicles (minus 1 confirmed destroyed).

By any standard in Human history Poland has done its part, and two or three other countries. Heavy Weapons, refugees fuel, name it. If the rest of Europe had done as much Ukrainian forces would be on the outskirts of Sebastopol. 

 

Edit: the Baltics have been fantastic, too, but they just don't have the same throw weight.

Edited October 21, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Interesting find, I hope Republicans will know how to read polls.

 

Rememeber this "Maginot Line" disscused lately? Well, it may not be that big it seems...

 

Is the salient sticking out in the north east going to be manned by punishment battalions, or do you have to pay to get assigned there because it will be so easy to surrender?

[Kinophile]

Concrete boulders sitting on grass. Wow.  There's the Russian military in a nutshell. 

 

[akd]

Another example of "modernized" SSh-68 helmets:

 

[Beleg85]

54 minutes ago, Huba said:

płatek (the Armaments Agency spokesman for the non-Poles  ) also said that on top of K239 and additional HIMARS, MoD will also continue ordering Langustas (upgraded RM-70). Now I'll be damned if these are for our own use. 
My personal pet idea is sending a battalion or two of Rosomak in Hitfist 30P version. I would nicely pave the way for actually sending western AFVs, and we just prolonged the license till 2028, so the loss could be easily made up for.

Yup, I would like to see some decent IFV's too, it is really depressing seeing Ukrainians charging throught muscovite lines in Humvees. But they will probably not give Rosomaks away unless other allies will also make some more bold decisions regarding similar equiplment, especially considering army is in short supply anyway. Info of Langustas sounds optimistic, however it may be correct; a lot of recent crazy shopping spree only makes sense through prism of support for Ukraine that is spread over time, planned for years.

51 minutes ago, dan/california said:

By any standard in Human history Poland has done its part, and two or three other countries. Heavy Weapons, refugees fuel, name it. If the rest of Europe had done as much Ukrainian forces would be on the outskirts of Sebastopol. 

The most interesting in this is fact every political force is firmly behind support; barely anybody observing domestic completelly toxic political climate in recent years would guess such united front was possible. And we both with @Huba are surprised, since PiS if famous for "heavy handling" almost any issue it touches upon, from economy, education, foreign relations etc., you name it. I suppose they are  "guided" by NATO in many areas, but nonetheless MoD is doing pretty solid work from military viewpoint. Especially OpSec of all these movements and trainings (pssst...) is impressive. Living close to one of main roads leading to Ukraine, I can tell you a lot was moving there in the last months.

 

[Vet 0369]

On 10/18/2022 at 9:54 PM, dan/california said:

They are probably trying to use the buses as human shields on the ferries. Wouldn't even be the worst thing the Ruzzians have done today.

Yeah, I can see it now, one bus of civvies and 50 mixed military trucks, tanks, and heavy weapons on each ferry (if they even have that many left)!

[sross112]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now that is interesting.  I wonder why this statement wasn't made loud and clear at the outset when there would have been more attention to it?  At the time I speculated that it could have been some sort of domestic problem for a variety of reasons, but Ukraine said it did the attack.  Which made no sense to me because even if Ukraine did do it there were good reasons to lie and say it was a domestic sourced attack.

I don't know what to make of this one statement, however I am still not comfortable with the theory that Ukraine carried out a truck bomb attack on the bridge. 

When the attack happened there were two questions raised:

1.  What caused the explosion?
2.  Who caused the explosion?

I was comfortable with missile and Ukraine, not truck bomb and Ukraine.  Now that the evidence seems to have concluded that it was a truck bomb, I'm thinking the answer to the second question is "not Ukraine".

However, as discussed earlier I don't think this was a false flag attack.  That's the obvious non-Ukraine option, but I don't think any Putin approved attack would have done something that harmful to the war effort and Putin's image as keeping Russians safe.  So not a false flag attack in the classic Russian state sense of the term.

This leaves four different options:

1.  Security apparatus (FSB)
2.  Military
3.  Political rival
4.  Internal social/ethnic/religious faction

Any one of them could have carried out the attack easier Ukraine.  No matter who did the attack it is obvious that the Russian government would blame Ukraine and only Ukraine.  The only other possible option would have been to say it was a terrible accident, which obviously Russia did not do.

The one with the least to lose would be some sort of internal terrorist act.  Yet no claims of responsibility happened, which is out of character for such a group.  I'd put that one at the lowest level of possibilities.

FSB could be looking to harm the war effort in order to get the war ended sooner, but it weakens their status within the regime because they are the guys who are supposed to prevent such an attack.

Political rival is possible, but I don't know that there is anybody strong enough to carry out this sort of attack without the backing of either FSB or the military.  Which, in my view, lands the ball in either the military or the FSB's court.

The military might want the war to wind down before there's nothing left of them and make the FSB look bad in the process.  Of the four alternatives to Ukraine, this is the one that seems most likely to me.

Steve

The big coincidence in this explosion on the bridge is the judge being next to the truck during the explosion. Was the coincidence actually the truck full of explosives being next to the judge?

The judge had powerful enemies. If they wanted him dead a car bomb would be a good way to go and something we have seen recently used in Russia. If it was a timed detonation based on knowledge that they were traveling to Crimea the fact that the explosion happened on the bridge would just be an accident (drove faster or slower than anticipated), which makes more sense than the Russians targeting the bridge. 

This theory, though less probable than some others, actually accounts for several things we've posted here. Like, why the road bridge and not the rail? Why not a missile strike? The FSB is tasked with guarding it, the MOD relies on it for logistics, terrorists didn't claim it and it is one of Putin's babies so it doesn't make sense that the bridge was a target by internal forces. 

No I don't normally wear a tinfoil hat or visit conspiracy theory forums, but something like this makes more sense. Then that brings me full circle into I've seen a lot of stuff out of Russia in the last 8 months that doesn't make much sense so who knows.

[billbindc]

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

11 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

Sounds like Stalingrad:  Commissar's House, Chemist's shop, etc.

This last one is one for the future map files.

Curious whether it is (or was) a wine shop or an actual winery:  Chateau de Azovstal? This is the region's 'sun belt', so certain hardy grapes will grow there. Never seen vineyards though, in my various map perusings.  I always thought of it as more a Sochi / Crimea thing.

Topos, a week old. River, though tiny, looks like it makes these defences tough to flank or envelop. So Ivan needs to plough straight ahead along the streets.

 

From WarMonitor3

Edited October 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

Wonder what the Austin narrative to Shoigu was? toss a nuke boys, and Crimea is 100% joining NATO....

2.  Meanwhile, on the RED team:

We will need new unit animations for the new CM game, Charles!  to go with the 'national characteristics' Steve is contemplating lol.... 

PS, these bungalows gotta provide units about *zero* in the way of hard cover. 

Edited October 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[cesmonkey]

11 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

I believe the writer of this story in that the 101st is deployed in Europe, i.e. Romania.  I don't believe that it's been nearly 80 years since they've been deployed to Europe.  Umm ... Bosnia, Kosovo?

Edited October 22, 2022 by cesmonkey

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

 

 

[I notice the BFC forum is starting to chug on all the embedded tweets or sumfink (it doesn't reliably save 'draft' posts anymore). So I need to paste something, post it and then keep updating.]

Conflicting reports: are they evacuating or reinforcing? Maybe both....

 

 

Edited October 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Concrete boulders sitting on grass. Wow.  There's the Russian military in a nutshell. 

 

As I said when this was first brought to our attention... Russians are half assing this because they half ass everything.  Someone mentioned that any engineering vehicle can easily push them aside, but it's even funnier than that... any vehicle, including a civilian 4x4, can just drag them out of the way.  Not unless the Russians thought to cut off every single rebar lift loops used to put them into place.  Which I think is safe to assume, the did not bother with.  Certainly the ones already placed in this video still have them attached.

All someone needs is a cable, chain, of sturdy tow strap and a hitch point on a vehicle.  Attach to the rebar loop, drive at an angle, drag it for a bit, stop, unhook, go back for another one.  I personally, with zero help, could clear 8 of these with my pickup truck in probably under 1/2 an hour.  Not because I'm some sort of superman, but because it would be that easy.

And this, kids, is why mom always says to make sure your dragon's teeth are backed up by manned trenches, bunkers, and artillery observation posts.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

The big coincidence in this explosion on the bridge is the judge being next to the truck during the explosion. Was the coincidence actually the truck full of explosives being next to the judge?

The judge had powerful enemies. If they wanted him dead a car bomb would be a good way to go and something we have seen recently used in Russia. If it was a timed detonation based on knowledge that they were traveling to Crimea the fact that the explosion happened on the bridge would just be an accident (drove faster or slower than anticipated), which makes more sense than the Russians targeting the bridge. 

This theory, though less probable than some others, actually accounts for several things we've posted here. Like, why the road bridge and not the rail? Why not a missile strike? The FSB is tasked with guarding it, the MOD relies on it for logistics, terrorists didn't claim it and it is one of Putin's babies so it doesn't make sense that the bridge was a target by internal forces. 

No I don't normally wear a tinfoil hat or visit conspiracy theory forums, but something like this makes more sense. Then that brings me full circle into I've seen a lot of stuff out of Russia in the last 8 months that doesn't make much sense so who knows.

I think the judge was coincidence.  Too much trouble to blow him up like that.  They'd just blow up his car like they are so fond of doing.

But yes, an attack by some Russian group does answer the question of why Ukraine didn't try to blow up a train as it would be infinitely easier to do and would have more assured destruction of the rails, which is what they really want taken out of action.  It might also answer why the detonation didn't happen at the seam of the suspension bridge section which, theoretically, could have created even more delays in reopening the bridge.

Steve