How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

Aristiovych for the number, and yes I know he isn't the most reliable source in world. Description is mostly from a story Steve referenced above that is first hand Ukrainian account. And the Russians were apparently abandoning their wounded, which drives the KIA number through the roof. They broke and ran and got chased HARD, like everything else in this war we won't know all the details until well after if ever. 

 

Found the first hand account again. 

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/

[chuckdyke]

Enough said about washing machines. 

 

[Grossman]

5 hours ago, billbindc said:

Of interest (read full thread): 

I think the premise of this thread is pretty solid. Putin, amidst miscalculating everything else, went to the CTSO expecting to hear about how China was going to help him. Instead, he realized they saw him as an anvil to be cut loose. He panicked and escalated. That was also the week that CTSO states started fighting each other and began the process of throwing off Russian treaty entanglements. It's absolutely logical this would have sent him into a tailspin. So...the long war he thought he could win with China's help now must be wrapped up before the Russian public  has had enough and/or before Ukraine takes it all back. The nuclear threats...and hesitation to use them in fear of China's reaction...all make sense. 

Interview at Deutsch Well here: https://www.dw.com/en/former-adviser-sees-influence-by-chinese-president-xi-jinping-in-putins-recent-decisions/a-63217909

 

Hugely interesting and significant ( the views of Andrei Illarionov). It means Putin is a very loose cannon on the deck. His "allies" are prepared to cut him loose. Hence the recent warnings from the US on the very heavy response should be use nuclear in any form. ( the US must have had intel on the Chinese conversations)

[Grossman]

Also I note Putin is moving 20,000 troops into Belarus. For what reason we don't know, maybe to stabilise Lukashenko, as he fears a mutiny in his military? Or maybe a feint to draw UKR forces to the Belarus border?  At some stage the Poles might detach a few brigades to defend the Belarus/Ukraine border. That seems the most logical first step for deployment if the Ukrainians ask for it.  

[The_MonkeyKing]

Now live started an hour ago (rewindable):

including Kofman

Pretty interesting event as a whole. https://helsinkisecurityforum.fi/hsf-2022/

[Grossman]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

While driving around today I had a think about the Izyum and Lyman situations in terms of traditional pocket battles.  I think this says a about how utterly terrible the entire Russian military system is, from squad level right on up to Putin.  Here's what I mean...

The German Wehrmacht from 1942-1944 increasingly found itself facing situations where large units were cut off and/or fully encircled.  If you look at how the Germans responded you'll likely see more successful escapes than outright defeats (gut feeling, I've not done some sort of statistical analysis).  For sure those escapes often had huge losses of men and equipment, but few resulted in wholesale death/surrender.  Why?  Here are some thoughts:

• military professionalism
• quality leadership at all levels
• flexible command structures and experience with improvising
• a belief in shared sacrifice
• genuine concern for their fellow soldiers

When a large force was cut off, the Germans organized an all around defense with whatever forces were available.  Command structures were modified, as needed, to ensure a unified command of the forces within.  Likewise, a linkup force was designated to breakthrough and that one was under its own uniformed command with, as much as possible, coordination between the command breaking out and the one trying to link up.

The forces trapped in the pocket understood that their best hope of getting out alive was to act together.  The cut off forces would task reorganize in order to offer the whole of the group the best chance of survival.  Armored vehicles, artillery, heavy weapons, supplies, and everything else were put together to form groups within that had specific responsibilities, such as breaking through, counter attacking breaches of the lines, etc.  Recon would be conducted within the pocket to identify potential escape routes and to assess what would be needed to exploit them.

Many of the pocket battles went very poorly for the Germans, but it took a lot to break one apart.  When that did happen the forces would retask themselves to suit conditions.  However, the idea was to keep the units as large as possible so that they could do achieve more than they could dispersed.  Only in the last phase of a defeated pocket would forces break down to sub-platoon sized groups.

Compare this to the Russians.  Everything I just said above is the exact opposite of how the Russians handle this situation.  They fight in their positions until they realize that they're cut off or perhaps just before.  The units seem to quicikly fragment into fairly small, disorganized groups.  It is every man for himself.

There's all kinds of reasons Russians don't seem to handle getting surrounded or cut off very well, but I'd say the most important factor is their inherently bad command and control.  If you don't have quality NCOs and junior officers there is no hope of keeping units together and fighting in any sort of coordinated fashion.  And that is the exact opposite of what gets forces out of pockets.

Steve

Steve. There was one other factor. Fear of the Russians, what they would do to the invaders. The individual German soldier knew what they had done to the Russians, and feared retribution.  The Russians have built up the myth of invincibility after their feats in WW2. Just about all the factors that supported that effort are missing in Ukraine. This is a new form of warfare, in the IT era, and the Russians are the invading force. 

[FancyCat]

13 minutes ago, Grossman said:

Also I note Putin is moving 20,000 troops into Belarus. For what reason we don't know, maybe to stabilise Lukashenko, as he fears a mutiny in his military? Or maybe a feint to draw UKR forces to the Belarus border?  At some stage the Poles might detach a few brigades to defend the Belarus/Ukraine border. That seems the most logical first step for deployment if the Ukrainians ask for it.  

Belarus was being prepped, whether 20k is actually moved is another idea. 

[Zeleban]

 

The embodiment of the power of the Russian Federation. In his pocket is a source of superpower

[Taranis]

8 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

The embodiment of the power of the Russian Federation. In his pocket is a source of superpower

I am impressed with all these videos. They have great difficulty in having tourniquets but I saw a video where all the guys on the bus each have a large bottle of alcohol and there is no shortage of stock 

[Taranis]

7 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

2.  French media is chuckling about General 'Lapin', Russia's fearsome 'Killer Rabbit.'

...There's a double entendre around lapin:  cuckold / complaisant / clueless / feckless, etc., but I'll leave that to an actual Frenchman to explain.

In French "Lapin" = Rabbit. It's not a very positive comparison because it's an animal that is known not to be very smart and also not a god of love in bed with women if you understand me... This animal is anything but a god of war...
The author then writes a correction and says that the real translation is not "Lapin" but "Lapine" and there it is even worse because it designates the female rabbit or if you space out "La pine", it is a slang term for the male sex...

There are also comparisons with this well-known ad aimed at children in French metros. "Don't put your hands on the doors, you risk getting pinched very hard"

Edited October 2, 2022 by Taranis

[Taranis]

"Anti-tank mines recovered and deactivated near Izium, in eastern Ukraine, on October 1, 2022. JUAN BARRETO / AFP"


"In the city of Sviatohirsk, in the Donetsk region, on October 01, 2022. STRINGER / REUTERS"


"At the site where a civilian convoy was allegedly hit, according to the Ukrainian state security service, by a bombardment by Russian troops, near the village of Kyrylivka, in Kharkiv oblast, on October 1, 2022. STRINGER / REUTERS"

"The body of a Russian soldier, in the recently liberated city of Kupiansk, Ukraine, on October 1, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP"

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Grossman said:

Steve. There was one other factor. Fear of the Russians, what they would do to the invaders. The individual German soldier knew what they had done to the Russians, and feared retribution.  The Russians have built up the myth of invincibility after their feats in WW2. Just about all the factors that supported that effort are missing in Ukraine. This is a new form of warfare, in the IT era, and the Russians are the invading force. 

Because 'russians' weren't really the ones doing the fighting during WW2, in USSR army they were the minority at the frontlines, but a majority in the rear, where they mostly did the (very brutal) occupation / reoccupation "security" (aka terrorizing locals and making sure nobody retreats)

But they did create the myth based on lies. Lots of myths.

One fun/meme part that our bloggers did over chat roulette when talking to absolutely random russians over the past 8 years was asking them where their grandpa served, of whom they are so proud of. The majority didn't even know. The few that knew - claimed it was NKVD.

It's also the reason Haiduk mentioned why "grandpas-on-sticks" end up being in garbage containers after every "great patriotic war" sect march. Reality is that their grandpas weren't ever fighting so they had to carry photos of random people.

Edited October 2, 2022 by kraze

[LongLeftFlank]

39 minutes ago, kraze said:

Because 'russians' weren't really the ones doing the fighting during WW2, in USSR army they were the minority at the frontlines, but a majority in the rear, where they mostly did the (very brutal) occupation / reoccupation "security" (aka terrorizing locals and making sure nobody retreats)

But they did create the myth based on lies. Lots of myths.

I challenge you to back up this assertion with credible documentary sources beyond your 'chat' group.  If not, you are entirely sh*tposting at this point.

[Butschi]

German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach reacting to philosopher Richard David Precht who continually demands negotiations to end the war (this time by NATO members vowing to veto Ukrainian NATO membership):

" Let's be honest: What is the point of genuflecting to Putin now? We are at war with Putin and not his psychotherapists. We must continue to consistently pursue victory in the form of the liberation of Ukraine. It does not matter whether Putin's psyche can cope with it."

EDIT: I do think we should take Putin's psyche into account. It would be remiss not to. What I find remarkable, though, is that a member of the German government publicly says we are at war.

Edited October 2, 2022 by Butschi

[Zeleban]

Zolota Balka, Kherson region

[Zeleban]

Some weird propagandist action movie from the LNR. 

American biolabs attached

Edited October 2, 2022 by Zeleban

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Grossman said:

Also I note Putin is moving 20,000 troops into Belarus. For what reason we don't know, maybe to stabilise Lukashenko, as he fears a mutiny in his military? Or maybe a feint to draw UKR forces to the Belarus border?  At some stage the Poles might detach a few brigades to defend the Belarus/Ukraine border. That seems the most logical first step for deployment if the Ukrainians ask for it.  

This 20 000 are mobilized and will be deployed there for training. You may be surprised, but Lukashenko tries to support all that best what had Soviet army system, so, when he called for "military trainings" own territorial defense and reservists, Belarus didn't encouter with such huge problems like now has Russia, where mobilized often spend cold nights in fields near campfires, waiting untill military officials find the place to settle them or deploy to unsuitable premises, where people forced to sleep on the floor. 

Edited October 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

According to Girkin, the Armed Forces of Ukraine reached the village of Belyaevka

[Haiduk]

National Guard special force unit "Omega" (main tasks are special operations of counter-terror, counter-insurgency, recon, securing of VIPs) ambushes with ATGM Russian armored column somewhere in Donbas. They set fire the tank, than ATGMed retreating part of column (but despite on tank hit, probably it was towed back), finally BMP-3 which took the crew of first tank was destroyed by therd missile.

 

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

According to Girkin, the Armed Forces of Ukraine reached the village of Belyaevka

Optimistic post about this with some hints from UKR soldier

 

Vitya, fu//k them tough! My friends from Kherson area tell, they will outshine Lyman and I will be ashamed, that I braged with participation here [Lyman], but not there. Please God, bro! I am only "for"!

Edited October 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

23 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Some weird propagandist action movie from the LNR. 

American biolabs attached

The "Airborne guy" on the 3rd picture had all the stuff of all Airborne in the wolrd . Note the Screaming Eagle patch . I'm surprised he not have the French Colonial Para or RCP insignia on the beret.

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, Taranis said:

The "Airborne guy" on the 3rd picture had all the stuff of all Airborne in the wolrd . Note the Screaming Eagle patch . I'm surprised he not have the French Colonial Para or RCP insignia on the beret.

 

According to the scenario, it is assumed that this is a paratrooper from the 82nd division

[TheVulture]

21 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

According to Girkin, the Armed Forces of Ukraine reached the village of Belyaevka

Looking at the map, I wonder if any Russian forces in the Velyka Oleksandrivka direction are wondering if they are about to get the Izium / Lyman salient treatment. 

[Cederic]

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

For the future scenario design files.

 

I'm missing something here.

Why do we care about that road? Why would it appear in a scenario?

What is the point or value in identifying large buildings? Oh look, a large building. Now what? It's a large building. Well done.

I don't get it. If you want to find Russian bases the observe in person, observe radio activity, observe traffic movements, observe where the Russians are.

Are those likely to be large buildings? Yes. But without the Russians, a large building is just a large building.

[chuckdyke]

5 minutes ago, Cederic said:

'm missing something here.

Why do we care about that road? Why would it appear in a scenario?

What is the point or value in identifying large buildings? Oh look, a large building. Now what? It's a large building. Well done.

You actually know how to play Combat Mission?