How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

To restore balance:

 

[Letter from Prague]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

Soo, some Czech media report that there's a deal made with South Korea, that will sell up to $3B worth of armaments to Ukraine, using Czech intermediaries. The article I found is behind paywall unfortunately, but the visible part mentions artillery ammunition( a no-brainer really) and KP-SAM MANPADS. @Letter from Prague did you hear anything about it? Any corroboration from other CZ media?

https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/domaci/ukrajina-valka-korejske-zbrane-pres-cesko-dodavka-zasoby-usa.A220928_175118_domaci_albe?zdroj=top

Some confirmation:

https://see.news/s-korea-to-send-weapons-worth-2-9-bln-to-ukraine/

ROK has a brigade worth of T-80U and BMP-3, I wonder if they would be willing to sell these, an interesting opportunity for sure.

I tried to dig around, but didn't really see much. I should note that DNES is mostly a tabloid owned by oligarch (who has one of his businesses in biofuel so we always play the game "spot the weekly 'electric cars are bad' article on DNES).

But it is also supposed to be secret deal, so who knows. I'll keep an eye out, but the more investigative journalism types have not said anything about this as far as I can see.

[Huba]

19 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I don't think Putin would be affected much by the entry of limited NATO forces at this point. That's not to say he wants it but he's already escalating at NATO with things like the pipeline sabotage. And as you note, in some ways it would help him at home...to mobilize, etc...not necessarily as an escape clause.

I find it extremely unlikely for NATO intervention to take any other form than an air campaign, focused on RU forces inside Ukraine itself. And seeing the debacle the RU AF is, it's hard to imagine how it wouldn't be decisive. 

[acrashb]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Well now…

This is the effect of mobilization on the populace:
 

 

[acrashb]

And as others have suggested, mobik's don't need to be in the front-line meat grinder to help the RA.  They just need to free-up experienced soldiers to go to the front line:
 

 

[Huba]

The plot thickens. Either RU wanted to (crudely) convey a message, or just failed at destroying the cable, an SW - PL electric interconnector. Let's wait for the reaction, but either way  our gov won't be amused. 

 

[Ultradave]

58 minutes ago, dan/california said:

They can go home and whine that at least they lost to NATO, or Russia can cease to exist.

Cease to exist how? We're not going to invade and roll all the way to Moscow and depose the Russian government. It could cease to exist on an entity on it's own as a result of being beaten back by Ukraine. 

[dan/california]

 

Kamil Galeev seems to think that Russia just can't bear to get beaten by Ukraine, it has to get beaten by US/NATO to give up. Galeev says tactical nuke is a means to achieve this. My point is we can skip that step and launch a full scale air war on the Russians in Ukraine. In three days the ones who are still alive can go home and say it was NATO, there was nothing we could do. If we do it now we don't even have to slaughter a 100,000 thousand mobiks.

Edit: Maybe start by just killing every Russian vehicle in the Kherson pocket, just as a proper warning.

Edited September 29, 2022 by dan/california

[riptides]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Kamil Galeev seems to think that Russia just can't bear to get beaten by Ukraine, it has to get beaten by US/NATO to give up. Galeev says tactical nuke is a means to achieve this. My point is we can skip that step and launch a full scale air war on the Russians in Ukraine. In three days the ones who are still alive can go home and say it was NATO, there was nothing we could do. If we do it now we don't even have to slaughter a 100,000 thousand mobiks.

Insanity.

Someone needs to get the message that the US was indeed the first, last and only user of atomics to end a war.

We ran the numbers back then, we have run the numbers up until now. If Putin chooses to use a tac-nuke it will be the end of the Putin/Russian populace for all-time. He will cement his place in history beyond anything evil up to this point.

[billbindc]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Kamil Galeev seems to think that Russia just can't bear to get beaten by Ukraine, it has to get beaten by US/NATO to give up. Galeev says tactical nuke is a means to achieve this. My point is we can skip that step and launch a full scale air war on the Russians in Ukraine. In three days the ones who are still alive can go home and say it was NATO, there was nothing we could do. If we do it now we don't even have to slaughter a 100,000 thousand mobiks.

I put this in the category as the "escalate to deescalate" takes. Galeev is making the mistake of trying to project a frame onto Putin and what is unknowable going on in his head. It's smarter and safer, imho, to simply pay attention to what Putin is doing. And what he's doing is escalating in a step by step fashion across a broad range of theaters of conflict. He is making no case at all to the Russian people that NATO or the US is unbeatable. Quite the opposite, in fact.

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Cease to exist how? We're not going to invade and roll all the way to Moscow and depose the Russian government. It could cease to exist on an entity on it's own as a result of being beaten back by Ukraine. 

I meant if they really do want to lose a nuclear war. 

[pavel.k]

29 minutes ago, Huba said:

The plot thickens. Either RU wanted to (crudely) convey a message, or just failed at destroying the cable, an SW - PL electric interconnector. Let's wait for the reaction, but either way  our gov won't be amused. 

 

Russians usually screw up everything and have a very bad karma now. Is it possible they was using maps without gas pipes and blow up them accidentally?

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I put this in the category as the "escalate to deescalate" takes. Galeev is making the mistake of trying to project a frame onto Putin and what is unknowable going on in his head. It's smarter and safer, imho, to simply pay attention to what Putin is doing. And what he's doing is escalating in a step by step fashion across a broad range of theaters of conflict. He is making no case at all to the Russian people that NATO or the US is unbeatable. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Then at some point he is going to have to get a very painful lesson, I am simply stating we might want do that on our timing, instead of his.

Edit: We have been boiling this frog slowly for a long time, it might be time to blow the pot out of the building. There is an endless slow escalation with zero indication that Putin has the sense to quit, or that someone else in Russia has the sense to shoot him.

Edited September 29, 2022 by dan/california

[Ultradave]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I meant if they really do want to lose a nuclear war. 

Then we would cease to exist as well. There's no realistic full nuclear war scenario where Russia is destroyed and the US and Western Europe are not. Even if we could somehow achieve some kind of surprise or their ICBMs are crap, their submarines still exist with enough warheads to destroy the US and a lot of Europe. Just as we have the same. 

Dave

[dan/california]

11 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU Nuke missiles issue

And the confirmation of this tragic circumstance is the problems with the adoption of the strategic missile "Sarmat", although V.Putin has repeatedly stated that these missiles will be on combat duty this fall. But the R-36M strategic missiles (which are very much feared in the West and which have been given the nickname "Satan" there) have already repeatedly exhausted their resource and need to be urgently replaced by "Sarmats". And there is nothing to replace them with, since only one test launch of the Sarmat has been carried out so far and there have been no more launches, i.e. it has not yet passed the state testing.

This is not exactly a ringing endorsement of the state of Russias nuclear deterrent. FWIW

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Then at some point he is going to have to get a very painful lesson, I am simply stating we might want do that on our timing, instead of his.

playing chicken with a guy that we are pretty sure already has a crap reliable intel network and may not be playing with a full deck doesn't seem like a good recipe for success.

Edited September 29, 2022 by sburke

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Then we would cease to exist as well. There's no realistic full nuclear war scenario where Russia is destroyed and the US and Western Europe are not. Even if we could somehow achieve some kind of surprise or their ICBMs are crap, their submarines still exist with enough warheads to destroy the US and a lot of Europe. Just as we have the same. 

Dave

I realize that, but the the thing that has held the peace for eighty years is convincing the Russians they can't just wave their magical nuclear stick and conquer Europe one country at a time. One way or another we have to make it clear we still mean it.

[Zeleban]

Interesting fact. The video describes the breakthrough of the fortified areas "Moscow" and "Piter", while the main role was played by 4 tanks, which were controlled by the tank company commander, who used a quadrocopter to control and not the control method when the commander is directly in combat formations. The fighters described this method of control as very effective. (unfortunately the video has no english subtitles)

[Haiduk]

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Define that term.  What are you proposing exactly?

What does derashizied mean?  And how would you propose doing it?

Oh, this requires many writing, but this is impolite to ignore a question, so... 

On my opinion, rashism is a new form of agressive expansionistic and revanсhist ideology, offered by ruling elites to wide mass of Russians as state ideocratia.  This ideology based on of Euro-Asian philosophy of Dugin, "Russian World", "Moscow is Third Rome", USSR 2.0 conceptions. Motivation - whishes of revanchism and domination of Russain elites, which want a redistribution of economical and political influence spheres in the world, contesting the West in hybrid way in the form of restoration of lost Russain Empire (even not USSR) influence sphere and its expanding on other countries. 

Derashization will be VERY long process, which will take maybe two next generations and like said Poesel it will be almost useless for most of curerntly living population, because people over 35-40 years with big difficalty can change own mind settings. 

Because rashism is a product of symbiothic system of power and people's aspirations it has two forming components - outer and inner. Thus, to derashize a nation we have to strike on two components simultainously. Germans in most, I think, were affected only by outer component of nazism. German nation was more civilized and educated, than nations of USSR in 30th. So, German way: punish nazi + force demonstration to Germans consequenses of nazism + "don't ask don't tell" will be insufficient, because in Russian case big role plays inner factors of Russian mentality. So, I think, more proper example should be Japan, where local militaristic ideology also leaned on local mentality and traditions.    

So, outer factors:

- Neo-imperial phylosophy.  New authorities must recognize and condemn publicly Euroasian/ Russian World/ USSR 2.0 conceptions as neo-imperialistic and colonial. Their place should be near Mein Kampf for learning by hystorians.

- Ideocracy. Rashism now is a obligue state ideology like communism of USSR time. All state media provide only ideocratic messges. Alternmative thoughts and critic allowed only for minor aspects. If oppopse thougts appear on state TV as opponents of state mainstream, it's usually give like marginals and freaks. Remedy -  ideocracy must be destroyed. Returning real pluralism in media, like this was in early Yeltsin's times. Media have to show widely crimes of former Russian elites - both against other nations and against Russian people. Though, I must point that several investigations of independent Russian journalists about Putin's palaces and luxury life of oligarchs, which posessed almost all Russian actives and have been turning  income in own huge palaces and yachts, instead to develop Russia, almost didn't have responce from society. Most of Russians consider this is natural order of things for Russia. Though, anyway,  the big role in quick falling of USSR ideology played a role of Gorbachov's "glasnost", when millions for relatively short time learned about communist crimes and that West is not "rotten", but much more successfull, that Soviet paradise.

- "Ruling and ordering" party. Like Communist Party in USSR, modern "Unite Russia" plays the same role, providing ideocracy to regions. All other parties just a puppets, imitating democracy, even they criticize main party, lile Communists or LDPR. Remedy - establishing in future of real diffrent democracy political platforms. But on the time of "crossing period" Russian have to be ruled by "steel hand in velvet glove", leaning on some political force.

- Educational system. Ideocracy complete occupied all education system - from kindergardens to univercities. The vertical region government - educational department - director - teachers maintains state ideology line. Kids from small years have been learning "Russian supremacy" ideology, based on lessons of hystory, when Russia always held just wars for the sake of defending of oppresed, carry enlightmnent and freedom and always won, glorifying Russian weapon. All this backed up with endless cult of war with dressing in WWII uniform, kids "military parades" and as final stage membership in state paramilitary organizations like "Junior Army" or cossacks, studing in numerous classes in many usual scholls with reinforcement military and phisical training. All this also to the statemant "kids are not guilt". Of course, their choice can be caused by parents or teachers, but membership in "Junior Army" usually their deliberate choice. On other hand teachers are obedient performers of election falsifications, because voting points mostly located in schools and teachers usually are most of committee members. So the remedy - demilitarisation of schools, new course of history, releasing of teachers from the brutal pressure of officials, demanding to execute.

- Orthodox church. Despite in Russian Constitution claimed separating of church from the state, but indeed like in Tsar times, Church became a lean of state ideocracy and a tool of state power sacralization. The Church is a main conductor of "Russian world" and "Moscow is a Third Rome" conception as well as huge amount of weird anti-semith conspiracy. Church blesses Russian agreesision, Church is a provider of intolerance to other Christainic confessions and intolerance to other thinking. Church supports the cult of war - all can recall real devilish Main Military Cathedral, which looks like a God of War temple. The Church interferring more and more in everyday life of Russians. Church more and more sneak to education system, but not for some sort ethic or religion knowledges, really need for youngsters, but for implementing of "Russian world" ideology and typical Russian life principles, which form inner factors of rashism. Remedy - changing of Church leaders on more moderate, real expelling idecracy influence of Church from educational system.

- Cult of war and Great Victory. All Russian life pierced with mentions about wars and victories, public interactive demonstrations of weapon, parades, rallies like "Immortal regiment" etc. As I told cult of war tied with education and church. And Great Victory Cult now became the secob religion in Russia.  All this should be completely removed especailly on cross period. History of wars and role of Russian in its have to be studied based on science, not on ideocracy. 

Inner factors. There is very tough to fix moods and patterns, composed during centuries.

- Church role. Russian version of Orthodox faith provide several dangerous mind settings - do not rise against powers (sacralized power!) and be obedient to powers, abasement of person with a word "slave of the God", suffering and humility is a right way (so Russian belives that their dads and fathers sufferes and built great country, so they have to suffer for the some great goals), "pray, all the Will of God" (brings up life passivity and expectation some high-ranked official or some happen will help in their question), do not keen to achieve mundane goods and modern knowledges (for example several years ago Church representative stated the learning of English and other languages is really do not need for true Orthodox and number of school lessons of foreign languages in schools should be shortened). And in the same time Church leader lives in luxury mansions, use luxury cars and spent own time on yachts. This is Russia. 

- povetry breed to the craving to ostentatious wealth and envy to prosprity nations. Despite Church influence, all people want to live in prosperity. Though children of generations, who lived in communal flats with one toilet and kitchen on dozens persons and stood in long queus for Yugoslavian high boots inherited this wish to show own success, posession of expensive things and as a consequence own higer place in social hierarchy - from poor Buriatian village inhabitant, which son brought looted washing machine to middle class, to Russian businessmen and oligarchs, buying up expensive real estate around the world in order each can see his success. So, povetry traumas born an envy to prosperity nations and whishes to stockpile of wealth. Putin, for example, because of his tough childhood has this mind trauma.

- swaggering and feeling of own supremacy. This feature of national menthality was discribed many times by Russian classic writers. Because of "Special mission of Russian nation - nation of God-Bearers" ideas of Russian World concept, most of Russians believed they are special "spiritual" people, all around owes them ("because we won in WWII"). Even if he is "poor Buriatian", which took bank loan to spent own vacation in Egypt or Turkey he will behave himself as a middle-east sultan. He will be humilitate personnel or demonstratively disrespect the culture of other country or nation. Even Russian middle class, which fled to Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan is rescenting that there no road things in Russian, no Russian-speaking service (you must know Russian! Are you russophobs?), no employment if you doesn't know local langauge, no cinema in Russian, no school in Russian and too much "non-Russian" around at all, but well, we will change here everything soon!  So, this fearture of mentality is good soil for growing of chavinism.

- cruelty and inner agression. Despite "humanistic Russian culture", the value of life in Russia didn't cost even broken penny. Tough life, hard work, povetry, small salary, especially in deep province have been generating inner agression, developing into carving to alcohol and drugs, showdowns, crimes, harrasments in families, bullings in scholls. In many regions of Russia in last years developed "A.U.E." mass jail cruel sub-culture, involving teenagers. Such spite of so embitterd people enough easyly to support by agressive rhethoric on TV, steering in right direction, blaming in their misery "anglo-saxes", "US and FRS", "Eurogays", "NATO", "jude-massons conspiracy against Holy Russia ", "khokhols, traitors of Russian World" etc.

This list can be continued, but I stop here. There is need to re-educate at least two generations to fix some mentality bugs and instill humanistic values in order to turn the country of Orwel's 1984 into normal peaceful and potentially prospering state. Else the cycle depicted on the cartoon below will be endless

 

[Cederic]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

looks to be a new recruit for the dead list.  Any idea what his rank would have been?

Hmm. No. I foolishly assumed a 41 year old commander with combat deployments to four countries would be reasonably senior but a quick hunt around suggests that Wagner don't really do ranks so a 'commander' could go anywhere from a 14 man detachment to a company. They do have people referenced as 'senior commander' so I'm guessing they have battalion level responsibilities.

It does though seem to be a bunch of heavily armed mercenaries with no discernible structure.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Yegor "Volga" Gorshkov, (as of 2017) deputy battalion commander (Maj. posting), DPR Separate Spetsnaz Battalion "Khan":

Maj. Oleg Tashmatov, unknown VDV unit:

Maj. of Medical Service Magomed Kurbanov, probably a battalion doctor in unknown unit:

 

[Cederic]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

[ many writing ]

That articulates the culture that you feel needs changing. It doesn't address what I understood to be core challenge, which is how.

Knowing what needs to change in Russia doesn't help us deliver that change. Given how hard it is to effect material cultural change anywhere (typically a multi-decade, often multi-generational activity, almost always requiring a degree of oppression and internal control) trying to impose cultural change on Russia from outside its borders doesn't feel viable.

That approach has been tried on North Korea for several decades with success rates hovering around 'none'.

[Kinophile]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

playing chicken with a guy that we are pretty sure already has a crap reliable intel network and may not be playing with a full deck doesn't seem like a good recipe for success.

Like playing chicken with a half deaf, semi-blind rottweiler.

It's still a rottweiler.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

can anybody find the oryx page that listed the 2014-2015 OSINT verified equipment losses?

Can't find it for the life of me

Better to see it on LostArmour. Despite this is Russain resource, but since 2016 and up to 2021, several Ukranian OSINT researchers shared information with pro-Russain OSINTers to count both sides losses as accurate as possible. 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Like playing chicken with a half deaf, semi-blind rottweiler.

It's still a rottweiler.

It is also just a little bit rabid, and loose in the neighborhood. Perfect options seem lacking.