How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Today's Rybar post is very interesting:

Quote

Two different crossings, two different rivers (Oskil and Seversky Donets) and one section of the front: the east of the Kharkiv region.

The first crossing was presumably made in the area between Kupyansk and Oskil (we put it on the zone south of Kupyansk-Uzlove). The second one is in Izum - crossing to the highway to Kamenka (estimated coordinates 49.193070, 37.271337).

AFU is crossing without any problems. And this is understandable regarding Izum [crossing] — after all, up to Svyatohirsk, the land is under the control of the Ukrainian side - but the crossing south of Kupyansk suggests something else.

For example, that [RU command] could not fully organize the defense along the left bank of the Oskil River. And also [it reminds] about getting a significant number of Russian weapons and military equipment into the hands of the AFU — for example, a modern T-90M "Breakthrough" battle tank.

We really hope that what is happening is evidence of a local failure, and not system issues and inability to learn from them.

Notes:

• There is no continuous RU defense along Oskil river. UKR already has a safe bridgehead to push toward Svatove.
• Mashkovets indirectly confirms it by explaining RU is building defenses just in front of Svatove and from Svatove to South toward Kreminna 
• When Rybar (or rather propaganda team behind the name) writes critical posts about Ru military it is not because he is trying to be objective. RU propagandists like him are usually linked to Prigozhin (RU military is too incompetent to hire them). It is just part of Prigozhin campaign for power. 

[Grigb]

There is another interesting Rybar post. In my previous comment I said Rybar is Prigozhin asset. Now I will show why.

Rybar likes to criticize RU military but let's check what he says about clown-zeks:

Quote

Ukrainian resources have published footage of fire damage ecorded by a drone on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut (Artemovsk).

The video captures the hits of the AFU positions in a residential building along Patrice Lumumba Street, 600 meters from the positions of the Russian Wagner PMCs.

The entire eastern outskirts of Bakhmut has been turned into one fortified area, where the defense is occupied by units of AFU and territorial defense.

Coordinates: 48.60004200734502, 38.058079067787986

 Sounds nice for RU - RU arty is pounding UKR position in front of Wagnerites. Except reality is different - it is Wagnerites defeat and Rybar explicitly hides it (unlike with RU military Oskil defense issue).

It is easy to see the place of hits with both videos and provided coordinates - it is Lumumba street buildings that Wagnerites captured at the beginning of August (right hand side of the map next to road to Pokrovske):

So, UKR counter attacked and captured positions among these buildings.

But here is more - Rybar claims the distance between UKR positions and Wagnerites is 600 meters. Let's put this on the map:

Well, it seems UKR troops kicked Wagnerites out of town.  

But wait - there is still more to it. There is something interesting at the distance of 600 meter - outskirts of Dacha cooperative.

It looks like that Wagnerites probing attack toward Dacha Cooperative wasn't probing attack but rather retreat. Under threat of UKR counterattack Wagnerites retreated to most sensible position - Dacha Cooperative full of cottages to hide in and lots of tree lines for cover.

And propagandist Rybar using mix of facts and fiction converted Wagnerites retreat into not so glorious but still good enough advance.

Even RU Wagnerites are retreating now. The internal state of RU forces is worse than we think. Well, yes, I am being Captain Obvious here because we basically already know it.

[UPDATE] I want to add that apart from RU situation I think there was (or is) dramatic increase of UKR power at the front line. Just a month ago we talked about UKR fightint retreat and now Wagnerites were simply kicked out without much fuss. 

Edited September 19, 2022 by Grigb

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Not necessarily. He could spin it like the defeat of the 6th Army at Stalingrad: The Wehrmacht actually made good progress in Stalingrad but it were Romanians who didn't hold the flanks (weak, unreliable, you name it). I've heard that version rather often. Same could work here. The Russian army itself would have held but... And now the army is forced to consolidate the front which is ok because it Luhansk's fault anyway.

Weak, unreliable? No. The Romanian MBT was pretty much a ww1 tank without anything larger than a MG to fight with. They were just hopelessly out-teched by the Russians, and could barely rely on their flanks. The Italians, and the Hungarians were in the exact same boat. Even better, the Romanians and Hungarians would rather fight each other than the Soviets. Fall Blau was a disaster from the beginning!

Edited September 19, 2022 by Artkin

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Weak, unreliable? No. The Romanian MBT was pretty much a ww1 tank without anything larger than a MG to fight with. They were just hopelessly out-teched by the Russians, and could barely rely on their flanks. The Italians, and the Slovaks were in the exact same boat. Even better, the Romanians and Slovaks would rather fight each other than the Soviets. Fall Blau was a disaster from the beginning!

You misread my post. That's not my interpretation of historical events but a possible narrative to explain the current situation. I meant to say that Putin could spin the disaster like the Wehrmacht did it with Stalingrad. Blame all on the Romanians (and Italians and Slovaks) who didn't do their jobs. It was easy because Romanians and Slovaks were known as Untermenschen, anyway, and the Italians as cowards. Also Göring was to blame, of course, because the Luftwaffe never managed to deliver enough supplies.

Replace Romanians, Italians, Slovaks with LDPR, have some additional scapegoat close to Putin (Shoigu?), there you go.

[Artkin]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

You misread my post. That's not my interpretation of historical events but a possible narrative to explain the current situation. I meant to say that Putin could spin the disaster like the Wehrmacht did it with Stalingrad. Blame all on the Romanians (and Italians and Slovaks) who didn't do their jobs. It was easy because Romanians and Slovaks were known as Untermenschen, anyway, and the Italians as cowards. Also Göring was to blame, of course, because the Luftwaffe never managed to deliver enough supplies.

Replace Romanians, Italians, Slovaks with LDPR, have some additional scapegoat close to Putin (Shoigu?), there you go.

Oh sorry about that.

LPR and DRP both have pretty crap equipment compared to the RU army, thought they seem more experienced... they have lost the least amount of ground throughout the war. Then again that area of the conflict is probably the most dug in and fortified with building materials.

The RU army rolled over defensive lines but defeated itself in doing so... Nothing new for the Russians at all.

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the possible explanation I was thinking of too.  The thing I don't like about it is this only works if Putin decides he's going to publicly lay the blame for the failures on the Army's shoulders.  That's extremely risky because he's the head of the government that makes the military and has been telling everybody how great they are for the last 20+ years (not to mention the last 6 months).  He could try and cash in on the Russian tradition of never holding the Tzar responsible for the things he is in fact responsible for, but that's an shaky theory these days.

Yet what else can explain what seems to be doing very little to hold the new frontage while at the same time continuing to fight in Donetsk?  I don't believe gross incompetence or confusion is at play by this point.  Even the lethargic and counter productive general staff has shown, repeatedly, that it isn't that out of touch with reality when things become bad.

There has to be an explanation for the behavior and right now the most likely one is that Putin has decided to let Luhansk "sink or swim" pretty much on its own.

Steve

Tom Cooper had this impression also,  as early as the 11th.

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-11-september-2022-a-review-8f87459fb47e

[Butschi]

9 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Oh sorry about that.

Nah, I should have written it clearer.

[Kinophile]

14 minutes ago, Artkin said:

LPR and DRP [...] have lost the least amount of ground throughout the war. 

Well... Not anymore, for LPR >:) 

Plus, UKR wasn't attacking until now so I'm not sure them losing ground was a metric in any sense. 

Not to sound snarky, I hope. 

Edited September 19, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

SIDE NOTE 

THE SAGA OF THE LAPTOP, vol. 45.

@Haiduks laptop is still in Poland with my mother-in-law,  who, get this, has the idea in her head that he's a potential Russian agent. 

I sh*t thee not. 

I've told her to drop the idea, her own son has told her and she's talked with Haiduk on the phone! I don't really think she's really serious (I think...). 

Plus she doesn't trust couriers or Polish mail. The idea was she'd get to Przemsyl with the stuff and hand off to a friend or family of Haiduk. 

However She had other ideas, strong and unusual ones, that I learned of from her son in a call at 11pm at night (hes not part of the madness, she just badgered him incessantly). 

She wanted to pass the package to a music band, just before they went to Kyiv for a concert. Now, it's Kozak System, who are known but...eh of all the people that Customs might take a long hard look at,  I'm pretty sure Musicians and their Entourage are near the top of the list. Plus she literally knew no one on the band, and they were leaving that evening. Somehow she got in contact with,  I think, a guitarist (?) and they agreed. Sure, ok, I guess? But not really. Fine, the guitarist (who's name I never learned)  but what if a hanger-on takes a shine to this expensive,  well wrapped packages? I'm sure the Musicians are decent people, but a concert tour is not the way to get a $1700 value package across the damn border! This was all extremely last minute, and untraceable. 

Yet she doesn't trust a signed courier service. 

I love her as family but, lol... Oh man. 

https://giphy.com/gifs/snl-l46CoyPN7mdW3C1Fe

Anyhow, I'm going to take this madness in hand and pay to get the package couriered to a family friend of Haiduk.

*siiiiigggghhhhhhhhh*

Edited September 19, 2022 by Kinophile

[Taranis]

"Russian tanks adorned with Ukrainian flags, near the city of Izium, in the Kharkiv region, on September 19, 2022. GLEB GARANICH / REUTERS"

[TheVulture]

A few reports from both sides that Ukraine has control of Bilohorivka:

 

 

Edited September 19, 2022 by TheVulture

[The_Capt]

40 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

SIDE NOTE 

THE SAGA OF THE LAPTOP, vol. 45.

@Haiduks laptop is still in Poland with my mother-in-law,  who, get this, has the idea in her head that he's a potential Russian agent. 

I sh*t thee not. 

I've told her to drop the idea, her own son has told her and she's talked with Haiduk on the phone! I don't realy think she's really serious (I think...) , but when she's on her own she can get a little...fast n loose with reality... 

Plus she doesn't trust couriers or Polish mail. The idea was she'd get to Przemsyl with the stuff and hand off to a friend or family of Haiduk. 

However She had other ideas, strong and unusual ones, that I learned of from her son in a call at 11pm at night (hes not part of the madness, she just badgered him incessantly). 

She wanted to pass the package to a music band, just before they went to Kyiv for a concert. Now, it's Kozak System, who are known but...eh of all the people that Customs might take a long hard look at,  I'm pretty sure Musicians and their Entourage are near the top of the list. Plus she literally knew no one on the band, and they were leaving that evening. Somehow she got in contact with,  I think, a guitarist (?) and they agreed. Sure, ok, I guess? But not really. Fine, the guitarist (who's name I never learned)  but what if a hanger-on takes a shine to this expensive,  well wrapped packages? I'm sure the Musicians are decent people, but a concert tour is not the way to get a $1700 value package across the damn border! This was all extremely last minute,  untraceable and, tbh,  classic MIL. 

Yet she doesn't trust a signed courier service. 

I love her as family but, lol... Oh man. 

 

https://giphy.com/gifs/snl-l46CoyPN7mdW3C1Fe

Anyhow, I'm going to take this madness in hand and pay to get the package couriered to a family friend of Haiduk.

*siiiiigggghhhhhhhhh*

div widget

You can't make this stuff up.  I swear parents are worse than the kids at this age.

[Probus]

48 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

SIDE NOTE 

THE SAGA OF THE LAPTOP, vol. 45.

@Haiduks laptop is still in Poland with my mother-in-law,  who, get this, has the idea in her head that he's a potential Russian agent. 

I sh*t thee not. 

I've told her to drop the idea, her own son has told her and she's talked with Haiduk on the phone! I don't realy think she's really serious (I think...) , but when she's on her own she can get a little...fast n loose with reality... 

Plus she doesn't trust couriers or Polish mail. The idea was she'd get to Przemsyl with the stuff and hand off to a friend or family of Haiduk. 

However She had other ideas, strong and unusual ones, that I learned of from her son in a call at 11pm at night (hes not part of the madness, she just badgered him incessantly). 

She wanted to pass the package to a music band, just before they went to Kyiv for a concert. Now, it's Kozak System, who are known but...eh of all the people that Customs might take a long hard look at,  I'm pretty sure Musicians and their Entourage are near the top of the list. Plus she literally knew no one on the band, and they were leaving that evening. Somehow she got in contact with,  I think, a guitarist (?) and they agreed. Sure, ok, I guess? But not really. Fine, the guitarist (who's name I never learned)  but what if a hanger-on takes a shine to this expensive,  well wrapped packages? I'm sure the Musicians are decent people, but a concert tour is not the way to get a $1700 value package across the damn border! This was all extremely last minute,  untraceable and, tbh,  classic MIL. 

Yet she doesn't trust a signed courier service. 

I love her as family but, lol... Oh man. 

 

https://giphy.com/gifs/snl-l46CoyPN7mdW3C1Fe

Anyhow, I'm going to take this madness in hand and pay to get the package couriered to a family friend of Haiduk.

*siiiiigggghhhhhhhhh*

div widget

Oye!  That is something else!

[FancyCat]

 

[Grossman]

 

Alla Pugacheva condemns conflict

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62948146

[kevinkin]

Bit of everything in this one from on high:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/in-ukraines-maximum-peril-lies-an-opportunity-to-save-it-if-its-friends-seize-this-moment/

A small preview of the UN this week and a couple of other links to check out. But even with all the analysis, it often comes down to a gut call vs. a brain fart. Can the west "seize this moment" and go for Putin's jugular? 

 

[Letter from Prague]

The LDPR will be interesting place for years to come. I hope West will share its significant COIN experience with Ukraine.

[FancyCat]

9 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

The LDPR will be interesting place for years to come. I hope West will share its significant COIN experience with Ukraine.

If I'm not incorrect, Ukraine would have its own experience in COIN due to the conflict in the Donbas from 2014 till pre 2022 invasion no? 

[Artkin]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Well... Not anymore, for LPR >:) 

Plus, UKR wasn't attacking until now so I'm not sure them losing ground was a metric in any sense. 

Not to sound snarky, I hope. 

Of course not. In my opinion the Donbass seemed more or less a stalemate since 2014. Considering it's been occupied for 8 years they probably have very good defensive positions, not even talking about fortified, but about just knowing the terrain. 

[Letter from Prague]

Just now, Artkin said:

Of course not. In my opinion the Donbass seemed more or less a stalemate since 2014. Considering it's been occupied for 8 years they probably have very good defensive positions, not even talking about fortified, but about just knowing the terrain. 

I wonder how many of the people who fought in Donbass in 2014 on LDPR side are even alive anymore. The Russians were using them as cannon fodder since the beginning of the invasion.

[Kinophile]

https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2022/09/19/7147072/

Also some RCH 155s?  What are those like? 

[Artkin]

11 hours ago, JonS said:

Soldiers don't make for a heavy load. For one thing, their density is so low they float in water, and on the other hand they just will not stop complaining if the packing ratio gets too high.

Sure but there is presumably a full crew + a squad of men inside + 14 men on top of the rear btr. 

These soldiers with a full combat load are probably anywhere from 200-300lbs each. The BTR is 11.5 tons, or  about 25,000 lbs. 

Add 25 soldiers and that's an extra 5-7500 lbs of weight. For an armored APC (No armor would give a higher payload) with two 120hp engines, it seems like a lot. 

[Artkin]

2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I wonder how many of the people who fought in Donbass in 2014 on LDPR side are even alive anymore. The Russians were using them as cannon fodder since the beginning of the invasion.

The dead numbers for Russians is already incredible. 50,000 is 1/4 (At least) of their initial invasion force. I bet most of these are located North and East of Kiev, Kharkov, and in the Donbass.

Even WIA, these men are considered combat ineffective, which is a crazy percentage. 

[Cederic]

Russia finding out that nation state sponsored cyber warfare is no match for motivated teenagers.

 

[Kinophile]

@Grigb (et al)

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-16-september-2022-east-kharkiv-fae7688306e2

Accurate read?

Quote

"Precisely this area — the one between Izyum, Oskil, Kamyanka and Studenok — is where the crucial showdown of this offensive took place because, at least the way I understand it, its actual aim was encircling the 1st GTA, the mass of which was deployed south and south-east of Izyum. Initially, Ukrainians had too few forces to assault Izyum and were only present north-east of this town: it took them until 8 or 9 September to secure the Vesele area. Further east, lack of roads and uneven terrain slowed them down, and it was late on 9 September before they managed to reach Kamyanka."

By this narrative the UA, even moving as fast as it was, was unable to trap the elements of the 1GTA. Not dissing the UA (the Ivan dropped, rolled & ran like the wind, after all) but it says to the speed of the advance that that was the only way to get out. Or more accurately, it was due to the RUS perception of the speed of advance that the effect was functionally the same.

Interestingly the UA seems to be, well, not paused per se but has reduced the tempo of ops to prevent overextension and avoid advance/recon unit tactical setbacks.

Maybe they're prepping/re-organizing 'on-the-march' for a stage 2 - punch through the consolidating RUS line (well, agglomeration really, "line" seems to be a big word for a still discontinuous defense system) without exposing to counter-attack from the south (Luhansk city).