How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

An interesting rumor mill going on

In comments, Damian Ratka who is a Polish armor expert points out that this is M1A2SEP3 - none of these are in Poland, only SEP2. This is photo from some training elsewhere, cross is photoshopped or it was an OPFOR mark.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

In comments, Damian Ratka who is a Polish armor expert points out that this is M1A2SEP3 - none of these are in Poland, only SEP2. This is photo from some training elsewhere, cross is photoshopped or it was an OPFOR mark.

Yeah, still was fun while it lasted

[akd]

That white cross looks very photoshopped.

[Huba]

Wolski doing something he's good at, instead of playing grand strategist. According to him, UA GS mention of Russians abandoning some Kherson settlements is about them withdrawing to positions around Kherson city that can be supported by artillery from the other shore. Makes a lot of sense.

Edited September 11, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

RUMINT - RU realistic assessment of UKR losses-500 KIA up to 2000 WIA.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Wolski doing something he's good at, instead of playing grand strategist. According to him, UA GS mention of Russians abandoning some Kherson settlements is about them withdrawing to positions around Kherson city that can be supported by artillery from the other shore. Makes a lot of sense.

I agree with DefMon3 that it's prep for an attempted orderly withdrawal. It doesn't help them much except to increase the density of their lines and the risks attendant to a local breakthrough rise geometrically with every lost kilometer between the front and the river behind it.

[Haiduk]

About today missile strikes

At the morning Russians launched several Kh-22 missiles from Tu-22M3, some objects were hit - one of them located in Voznesensk, Mykolaiv oblast (airfield?)

At the evening 11 cruise missiles were launched, 9 were intercepted. 7 of the over Dnipropetrovsk oblast - 5 Kh-101 from Tu-95 and 2 Kalibrs, launched from Black Sea. Two unknown type missilles were intercepted near Kremenchuk, Poltava oblast. Two missiles hit thermal power plant in Kharkiv and some power infrastructure in Kharkiv oblast. As result blackout happened in most of districts of Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava and some in Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Now electricity is restored in Sumy and Poltava oblasts.

Also several Iskander missiles hit private cotatdgas area in Pokrovsk town, Donetsk oblast. There are many destructions, at least 9 civilians killed. 

Bakhmut city was also shelled with MLRS and probably Iskander too 

Edited September 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Wolski doing something he's good at, instead of playing grand strategist. According to him, UA GS mention of Russians abandoning some Kherson settlements is about them withdrawing to positions around Kherson city that can be supported by artillery from the other shore. Makes a lot of sense.

Except the part where those RA guns get spotted from space and lit up by HIMARs.

[Huba]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Except the part where those RA guns get spotted from space and lit up by HIMARs.

It is the next step in RU demise, no doubt. But from RU POV this is quite reasonable I think, for sure better than just standing there without artillery support and dying.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I agree with DefMon3 that it's prep for an attempted orderly withdrawal. It doesn't help them much except to increase the density of their lines and the risks attendant to a local breakthrough rise geometrically with every lost kilometer between the front and the river behind it.

So this is a concern, not a huge one based on what we are seeing, taking ground is great but this is about neutralizing as much Russian combat power as possible.  Things are really turbulent right now and we have rumours of PoWs and video of abandoned captured RA kit - a Dunkirk is good too. But the RA pulling back in anything that resembles an orderly fashion means they will likely dig in further back.

Let's all cheer for Russians withdrawing in a dis-orderly fashion.

Edited September 11, 2022 by The_Capt

[Beleg85]

Ok, but if Russians can take out so much electricity by two missiles, I think we can expect terror campaign of this type soon. Let's hope Ukrianians remain steadfast.

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

Wolski doing something he's good at, instead of playing grand strategist. According to him, UA GS mention of Russians abandoning some Kherson settlements is about them withdrawing to positions around Kherson city that can be supported by artillery from the other shore. Makes a lot of sense.

I think he should stay at discussing eqipment and his chillout evenings with Kamizela, which are really fun btw. But his star shines not so bright now, especially since he is so adamant to defend his view that "Kherson offensive failed".

 

Edited September 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

So this is a concern, not a huge one but taking ground is great but this is about neutralizing as much Russian combat power as possible.  Things are really turbulent right now and we have rumours of PoWs and video of abandoned captured RA kit - a Dunkirk is good too. But the RA pulling back in anything that resembles an orderly fashion means they will likely dig in further back.

Let's all cheer for Russians withdrawing in a dis-orderly fashion.

I suspect we'll get a mix of all of the above with the caveat that everything that can't be carried by a single man is going to be left behind.

[Huba]

Talking about orderly withdrawal, if RU indeed withdrawn to these lines around Kherson city, it means the the whole shore including vicinity of both bridges is now in range of UA 155mm artillery...

[The_Capt]

Just now, Huba said:

Talking about orderly withdrawal, if RU indeed withdrawn to these lines around Kherson city, it means the the whole shore including vicinity of both bridges is now in range of UA 155mm artillery...

And we can all say it together: "Russian defensive options spaces are....collapsing! Ukrainian options spaces are expanding" just as God, nature and billions of dollars of western weapons intended.

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Talking about orderly withdrawal, if RU indeed withdrawn to these lines around Kherson city, it means the the whole shore including vicinity of both bridges is now in range of UA 155mm artillery...

Yes. And the increased density will simply make targeting for significant effect easier. Of course, that's how it goes when you are losing. You take options out of necessity that create other problems.

[Huba]

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I think he should stay at discussing eqipment and his chillout evenings with Kamizela, which are really fun btw. But his star shines not so bright now, especially since he is so adamant to defend his view that "Kherson offensive failed".

He was quite good in tracking the movements of the frontlines, and especially of RU units positions, I'll readily give him credit for that. The interpretations are a different pair of shoes...

Oh, and this speech by Zelenksy was spot on! He's getting more and more churchillian every day

Edited September 11, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

Talking about orderly withdrawal, if RU indeed withdrawn to these lines around Kherson city, it means the the whole shore including vicinity of both bridges is now in range of UA 155mm artillery...

I have been saying for weeks that once the whole river is 155 range it is all over but the crying, and the dying. Amount of fire on the crossing points goes up 100x. And counter battery risk to those  155s goes way down. There will be a gesture of good will attempted within 48 hours. Probably followed by the mass surrender of the survivors.

[poesel]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And our God Money will save us!  Here is the problem with that particular spin - there are people out there that hate us more than they love money.  Trust me, I have met them. 

Oh yes, no doubt. But I'm pretty sure the money lovers vastly outnumber the crazies in Russia.

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And 6000 loose nukes is very bad...as in very very bad.  Because even if only a few squeak out of our "nuke for bucks" plan the entire game changes. 

I would guess that maintaining and firing an ICBM or even something small like a SS-20 is beyond the capabilities of a terrorist group. So we are talking about state actors. There is only one I can think about which both wants them and is able to manage it, and that would be Iran.
That would indeed be very, very bad.

We need to make sure that we pay enough so that the greedy will slay the crazy first.

2 hours ago, kraze said:

History shows time and again that you can't appease an empire after defeating it - it will always want revenge.

I know they can be annoying, but please give the Austrians a break!

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think the US should give Ukraine ATACAMS with a restriction to limit it to targeting Russian utilities, tit for tat.  Russia knocks out a power station, Ukraine knocks out two on Russian soil.

That is not tit for tat - that is called escalation

[Huba]

Just now, dan/california said:

I have been saying for weeks that once the whole river is 155 range it is all over but the crying, and the dying. Amount of fire on the crossing points goes up 100x. And counter battery risk to those  155s goes way down. There will be a gesture of good will attempted within 48 hours. Probably followed by the mass surrender of the survivors.

Yup, I think so too. If they don't surrender and try to run en masse, it has all the potential to turn into true massacre.

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

He was quite good in tracking the movements of the frontlines, and especially of RU units positions, I'll readily give him credit for that. The interpretations are a different pair of shoes...

True, but I think he tracked them with the help of other accounts.

Which speaks to larger problem of popular military analysts (also to others around)- it's difficult to meet competent OSINT-er with all assigned methodology and classical military analysts in one person, with intimate knowledge of organization, equipment and staff work on high levels. And almost impossible to  marry them into specific of both Russian and especially Ukrainian military, without knowledgeable person on the ground.

Edited September 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, poesel said:

I would guess that maintaining and firing an ICBM or even something small like a SS-20 is beyond the capabilities of a terrorist group. So we are talking about state actors. There is only one I can think about which both wants them and is able to manage it, and that would be Iran.
That would indeed be very, very bad.

That is one massive assumption.

So those warheads can come off, right?  I mean we all read Sum of All Fears.  So first problem is the people who are qualified to maintain and operate the things go into the wind and can be picked up and hired by anyone, plus their country just fell apart and they are looking for work.  They probably are a little sore to at country collapsing thing and might even get onboard with the grudge thing.

Then there is the talent to take warhead off missile and put in a truck, boat or airplane - pretty sure non-state can find the talent to drive those.

My point being that loose nukes open up a lot of very bad scenarios that our blessed money and hopes that the things will stay conveniently on missiles in their silos, or people in a country that just fell apart will behave rationally, do not adequately address.  It in fact become a C-WMD problem which are some of the nastiest we have, and have been wrestling with for about 20 years.  Rogue state, pseudo state, non-state + nuclear weapons = bad with no easy button.

 

[kevinkin]

I was a bit surprised to read Poland is buying a large number (96) of AH-64Es. What did we used to call them; "flying tanks"? While technically not heavy systems, they have become very vulnerable to MANPADs and emerging tactical air defense systems. Their employment in the gulf wars produced mixed results when organized into battalion sized formations. I suppose the terrain in western Europe is better suited for hide and seek tactics by pairs of choppers and their speed might ensure some level of protection. But given what we are witnessing in Ukraine, who, what and where are those Apaches going to fight? Maybe they will replace aging tanks producing a more balanced force for the next decade or so. Also, the Apache is being fielded/tested with maritime capabilities which might interest Poland. 

[Cederic]

I'm a big fan of political street art.

 

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I was a bit surprised to read Poland is buying a large number (96) of AH-64Es. What did we used to call them; "flying tanks"? While technically not heavy systems, they have become very vulnerable to MANPADs and emerging tactical air defense systems. Their employment in the gulf wars produced mixed results when organized into battalion sized formations. I suppose the terrain in western Europe is better suited for hide and seek tactics by pairs of choppers and their speed might ensure some level of protection. But given what we are witnessing in Ukraine, who, what and where are those Apaches going to fight? Maybe they will replace aging tanks producing a more balanced force for the next decade or so. Also, the Apache is being fielded/tested with maritime capabilities which might interest Poland. 

Last decisions of MOD make little sense to anyone around here as well. They are so odd that many people believe there is actually a method in whole endevour on high strategic levels, and it may be connected to Ukraine's future.

Edited September 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[Letter from Prague]

As far as I know, Russia might have 6000 warheads but it for sure does not have 6000 ICBMs - most of the nuclear bombs are actual bombs to be loaded to planes and dropped. A lot of them are warheads compatible with iskanders, etc, but need to be installed.