How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russian forces are very spread out and isolated.  My expectation is that frontline units surrendering will yield fairly small number of POWs at any one spot.  Like the 7 that were shown a couple of days ago.  However, because the way Russia's defenses are structured even "small" surrender events can have locally catastrophic implications for Russia's defenses.

exactly!!  Say Steve's estimate of ~5000 fighting soldiers in the pocket.  That's 30 per km for the ~170km front.  But if only half are in the first line, that's 15 rifles/km.  So we'd expect to see basically squad or fireteam sized units all over the place, w hundreds of meters between them.  Even if the higher numbers of ~20k troops, w 10k of those being 'rifles', it's a platoon per km.  Isolated w irregular supply and perhaps poor communication, lacking proper NCOs and officers, this sounds like a front ready to collapse.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

We have gaining not only near Balakliya. 

Today UKR troops are continuing to expand own zone of control on northern bank of Siverskyi Donets. There was reports about intensive fire near Dibrova village next to Ozerne, liberated recently. Resuly unknown.

Hey, I was happy to know that two SBOR units are likely going to be removed from the field, so this news makes me even happier

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Also appeared first confirmation UKR troops entered to Staryi Karavan village

The thing I like about this video... campaign rucksacks!  These guys are not on a raid and return to base, these guys are looking to relocate.  This is not something a unit decides, this is something senior command determines.  And if senior command has determined this, then we can pretty much count on more fun to come.

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

Looks like UKR forces is seizing forest massive between Lyman and Yampil'

I like the sounds of this a lot!

As I keep saying, it is entirely possible that Ukrainian diversionary attacks in the Donbas and Kharkiv area could develop into significant localized problems for Russia.  Localized problems in multiple locations at once then turns into a strategic problem.

Steve

[Beleg85]

40 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Together with Samara oblast SOBR, their comrades from Bashkiriya Republic SOBR also in encirclement. 

On the screens  - both SOBRs claimed they will not going to surrender. Samara SOBR already doesn't get in touch. Bashkirians said last farewell. 

Russian propaganda will soon make up another "28 panfilovtsy" story from this, you will see.

Thread about ammo assessment in Russian stocks:

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As I keep saying, it is entirely possible that Ukrainian diversionary attacks in the Donbas and Kharkiv area could develop into significant localized problems for Russia.  Localized problems in multiple locations at once then turns into a strategic problem.

Edited September 6, 2022 by danfrodo
edit

[Grossman]

 

[danfrodo]

above, meant to actually say something.  Assuming our beliefs about RU manpower are correct, and assuming Putin keeps moving soldiers to his Donbas 'offensives' and to the west, it's easy to see how UKR diversionary attacks could find almost nothing in their way, leading to significant gains.  And imagine the panic as RU mobile units are thrown around all over the place, back and forth, trying to plug the holes.  

Yeah, this is getting good.

[akd]

Well then…

 

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, akd said:

Well then…

 

Yeah, Girkin, how you like Ukraine now you murderous POS. We can only hope that somehow you get caught up in the collapse.  Could get very very ugly for the warmongers.

[Beleg85]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Yeah, Girkin, how you like Ukraine now you murderous POS. We can only hope that somehow you get caught up in the collapse.  Could get very very ugly for the warmongers.

This is strangely edited Girkin video, you can check in the comments; probably is not fresh.

 

 

[sburke]

17 minutes ago, akd said:

Well then…

 

Wonder if he is standing near a window...

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

What could carry Rosgvardiya armored car to make such BOOM?

Driver dropped his cigarette?

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

A few more officers…

Maj. Vladimir Kholin, unit unknown:

Maj. Alexander Starchkov, unit unknown (patch might be recognizable if a larger version of the VK post photo can be accessed):

Maj. German Yudin, deputy battalion commander, unknown unit (Yaroslavl is home to 34th Railway Brigade?):

Edited September 6, 2022 by akd

[Beleg85]

Basically half of the road to E40 Highway north...

[chuckdyke]

The Babushkas won't be happy. Once you have arthiritis a washing machine is a must.

 

[chuckdyke]

A good contribution in regards the use of tanks in the Ukraine.

 

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Basically half of the road to E40 Highway north...

Well, well, well.

Grigb has picked up chatter about RU Nat's concerns about the Kharkiv direction for some time now.  We've seen them react to the news of today with "I told you so!  Kharkiv is the real focus for Ukraine, not Kherson!"

What I make of this is Ukraine planned a significant, but still secondary, offensive for the Kharkiv area to expand upon pressure already being applied and to take advantage of Russia thinning their lines.  The Ukrainians made sure the Russians had some reason to believe this to be true so as to distract their attention from Kherson.  Finding that Russia did not reinforce the area with anything significant, they pushed ahead and are (at least for now) probably doing better than they expected.

Steve

[Beleg85]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, well, well.

Grigb has picked up chatter about RU Nat's concerns about the Kharkiv direction for some time now.  We've seen them react to the news of today with "I told you so!  Kharkiv is the real focus for Ukraine, not Kherson!"

What I make of this is Ukraine planned a significant, but still secondary, offensive for the Kharkiv area to expand upon pressure already being applied and to take advantage of Russia thinning their lines.  The Ukrainians made sure the Russians had some reason to believe this to be true so as to distract their attention from Kherson.  Finding that Russia did not reinforce the area with anything significant, they pushed ahead and are (at least for now) probably doing better than they expected.

Steve

Yup, rather unexpected area of whole northern front to attack. If they dream of pushing in the direction of Kupyansk, a lot of open terrain awaits them. But even if it is still only local attack and ends at capturing Balakliya alone, the town itself is by far largest settlement (25 th.) Ukrainians liberated from the times they collapsed Russian axis north of Kharkiv at the end of first phase of the war.

New dynamic is clearly visible.

[Calamine Waffles]

Jack Watling of RUSI admits he got some things wrong and overestimated the Russian artillery ammunition stocks back in June
 

Quote

The problem with my methodology was that we looked at shell manufacturing and not charge or explosives manufacturing. If you look at these areas then it becomes clear that production was not as high. 7/15

Why then were the factories manufacturing the shells still churning stuff out? I would suggest that the delta between the amount of steel etc needed to make shell casings and the amount of explosive available to make complete shells is indicative of the level of corruption. 8/15

I don't believe this is due to corruption completely, or even majority. I believe Russia has underinvested in their chemical industry, just like the Soviets in the years before WW2, and just doesn't have the capacity to manufacture explosives in a sufficient capacity. During WW2, US Lend-Lease was able to compensate for it, but not today.
 

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, akd said:

Dariivsky bridge pontoon replacement and nearby warehouse were hit.

 

We've not yet discussed what the significance of this pontoon bridge hit is.  For sure this greatly complicates Russian moves of personnel and supplies between Kherson and the bulk of the rest of the Kherson forces.  However, the extent of the problems it creates is unknown because we don't know the disposition and status of remaining supplies.  We also don't know what the consumption rates are, though we can guess the further east you go from Kherson the higher the consumption.

The difficulty this bridge loss causes to Russia, therefore, is directly proportional to how much surviving supplies are concentrated in Kherson vs. to the east.  Russia loves to concentrate stuff, so I'm guessing that a disproportional amount of surviving supplies are in Kherson relative to troop deployments and consumption rates in the areas currently under the most pressure from Ukrainian forces.  If so, good

Steve

[dan/california]

If the Ukrainians are just close enough to make this a credible head fake it a big deal. If it is true I think the Russians have all but lost the war. Even if it is just trolling it is phd level and will induce huge anxiety in the Russians.

Yes I m being a little over enthusiastic, but there has been 24 hours of unrelenting good news. 

 

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If the Ukrainians are just close enough to make this a credible head fake it a big deal. If it is true I think the Russians have all but lost the war. Even if it is just trolling it is phd level and will induce huge anxiety in the Russians.

Yes I m being a little over enthusiastic, but there has been 24 hours of unrelenting good news. 

 

90% of Omar was whistling "The Farmer in the Dell".

[asurob]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Yes I m being a little over enthusiastic, but there has been 24 hours of unrelenting good news. 

 

So say we all!

[danfrodo]

38 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If the Ukrainians are just close enough to make this a credible head fake it a big deal. If it is true I think the Russians have all but lost the war. Even if it is just trolling it is phd level and will induce huge anxiety in the Russians.

Yes I m being a little over enthusiastic, but there has been 24 hours of unrelenting good news. 

 

Let's assume this is a diversionary or probing attack with a small force.  If so, I wonder if UKR has sufficient mobile forces & logistics in the area and are flexible enough to exploit this faster than RU can plug what looks like a hole.  Yeah, taking Kupyansk unhinges RU defenses in HUGE sector of the front.  Maybe won't take Kupyansk to avoid city fight but just cut the lines running SW from there.  Supplies would need re-routing, the huge amount of supplies around there taken, large numbers of units cut off for long period(week?  more?) while supplies are re-configured.  Yeah, I like it. 

[cesmonkey]

The "KP" correspondent, Alexander Kots, still disputes the Ukrainians are having success in the Kharkiv region.

Читайте на WWW.KP.RU: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27441/4643885/

Google translation:

Quote

Meanwhile, the military-civilian administration of the Kharkiv region does not consider the attack on the suburb of Balakleya an offensive

In various pro-Ukrainian channels and channels with a not very honest history of maintaining a page, you can read news about an alleged offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But it's not! Panic is deliberately induced in Telegram channels, unreliable and frankly false news are posted. Do not trust this information, - advised Tass in the CAA.

[Seminole]

Probably nothing to it, but...

All Russian telegrams simultaneously posted that there isn't any panic in Balakiya