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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

This is RU propaganda. I am not sure the guy is being paid but he says word for word what RU propagandists said. The facts are the following:

  • The tank was captured by UKR in March and nobody said otherwise.
  • Nobody said RU used rubber instead of explosives. It is obvious they are part of ERA bricks. 
  • UKR did not cannibalize ERAs explosive because you cannibalized them together with rubber plates. Rubber plates indicate they were untouched by UKR.
  • UKR tanker explicitly confirmed they were empty when captured
  • Murz confirmed that lack of explosives in ERA block does happen often in RU army.

 

Thank you for your advice. I don't think he is a RU propagandist because he is a bit critical of all tanks and especially Russian tanks. But perhaps he actually relies entirely on the statements of RU propagandists and therefore relays their propaganda. I think his remarks did not start from a bad intention. Maybe he just wanted to point out that we are not sure that the tank was exactly in this state when it was captured, but who knows...

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2 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Almost eighty years now but the Sherman had the best radio, optics, and stabilizer. 

Yeah, so when he did a video about the Ukrainian T-64BV obr. 2017 he was complaining about things like "oh, it doesn't shoot any APFSDS better than 3BM42 Cold War era ammunition, its engine is still the same so it's underpowered"

He briefly acknowledges that it has satnav, but he doesn't mention that the satnav has BMS (battlefield management system) integration AND it has a far superior encrypted radio to the Russian tanks.

He also doesn't mention that to upgrade a T-64BV to the 2017 level it can be done in army repair workshops (rembat or remrot; repair battalions or repair regiments), whereas to upgrade a T-72B to T-72B3 standard it's back to Uralvagonzavod the tank goes.

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2 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

T-72B to T-72B3 standard it's back to Uralvagonzavod the tank goes.

No way, I am an expert on armored warfare. What I understand is basically the T64 all the way up to the T80 are the same tank they just update optics electronics etc.  

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56 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I recall a speech by Putin preinvasion where if I was reading a correct analysis of it, Russians who live in the west and adopt anti-Russian positions are traitors, but as long as your mentally for Russia and against the west, your fine, feel free to live there, stash your riches, enjoy the beaches. Couple that and the fact every single Russian elite and aspiring seems to have a house or more in Europe, and the bank accounts to go with it....and how much they are complaining about being banned....I feel like paying some minor fee won't have much a effect or deterence at all on visitors.

The elites all probably have a "golden passport" from Cyprus or Malta already so that horse has bolted long ago. I think the visa restriction discussions now are mostly about RU tourists (at least in Finland that is the case).

Yes, the fee would be symbolic more than anything else, but those who would feel offended about funding Ukraine even symbolically would be free to remain in Russia..

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After other countries, Czech Republic is also calling for not giving Russians visas and letting them in EU-wide. (Czech Republic itself stopped giving and extending visas right after the invasion started. Quite a few Russians already had to leave the country because they previous visa expired.)

https://www.perild.com/2022/08/11/the-czech-foreign-ministry-called-for-the-introduction-of-an-eu-ban-on-issuing-visas-to-russians/

This is Russia's response:

 

But of course, Germany is against it, talking about "punishing innocent Russians".

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany-rejects-calls-for-eu-ban-on-tourist-visas-for-russians/2659057

I have noticed a lot of propaganda about this. At both reddit and twitter, every time someone mentions not letting Russians into EU, immediately bunch of people shows up repeating copy-pasted lines about "collective punishment", etc. That is of course bull**** - not longer being invited for a party is not a punishment, nor is there any human right to be able to go as tourist to countries that your government is threatening to nuke three times a week.

But it seems it has high priority for Russian bot farms - seems like more confirmation that this would be bad for the regime. Meaning we should for sure do it.

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What does the Geneva convention say about meme-ing as hard as Ukraine does? Certainly, their media accounts aren't taking any prisoners.

 

Probably the best social media since Wendy's went rogue and reshaped what was expected of corporate accounts. In the face of something so calamitous as a war of aggression by barbarians, it takes some big balls for official MoD accounts to start joking around.

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1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

The Washington Post. Nobody takes the credit for this masterpiece of an operation.

Ukraine's special forces undertook Crimea attack, official says - The Washington Post

One of the signature attributes of SOF is an ability to create negative decision.  I am not convinced that this was a SOF op, but the effect is obvious.  Deep SOF infiltration, especially in a nation where one speaks the language and understands the culture, has no maximum range.  This is the kind of thing that keeps enemy executive leadership up at night.

It will be interesting to see what Russian internal security does in the coming weeks.  Heavier hands to protect from Ukrainian ghosts just reinforces any organic resistance in the country and makes things worse, especially when the economy starts hurting.

If it was a SOF Op, it ranks with Op Gunnerside.

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5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 Deep SOF infiltration, especially in a nation where one speaks the language and understands the culture, has no maximum range.  

Like me going to the Netherlands? I lived there for the first 15 years of my life, I bet after 30 minutes they will figure I don't live there permanently. It is easier said than done. 

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3 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Like me going to the Netherlands? I lived there for the first 15 years of my life, I bet after 30 minutes they will figure I don't live there permanently. It is easier said than done. 

Which is 30 minutes longer than you last in Sudan.  It is not easy by any stretch, that’s why they are called “special”.

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3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Officially, Transnistria is part of Moldova. Ukraine's invasion of Moldova does not sound very realistic. Unless if Moldova officially asks Ukraine to send troops to Transnistria...

Thanks - I missed that detail. I thought it belonged to nobody.

Well, both are aspiring EU members. Why not start to work together right now? :)

Ok, let's see if and when it happens. Then I'll have my 'told you so' moment. :D

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One of the higher officers of UA General Staff gen. O. Hromov tell that already 13 thousand of members of Belarussian security forces and military declared intent to take part in the war. Motives are almost exclussivelly materialistic.

Interesting is that he stated they were small groups of of volunteers from countries like Syria, Cameroon, Mali or Tajikistan gathered in Belarus to show "international support" for Kremlin (Putin's fantasy of being the champion of marginalized "third world countries" rebellion against US-led global order).  They will not probably have any impact on the battlefield, but it is worth to note their presence.

 

Also, interesting developments around Zaporizhzhia NP "talks". Kremlin clearly weights heavily on this asset in their war, but their intent is not clear. Do they want to secure electricity for Crimea ?Perhaps they treat these negotiations as probe and platform for possible future ceasefire? They do a lot of provocations and blackmails at highest level, so it clearly has priority.

Edited by Beleg85
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8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 It is not easy by any stretch, that’s why they are called “special”.

It is not only the language, but also the way you look and body language. It may be easier nowadays we live in a multicultural world. Every country got its share of expatriates. Happy gaming.

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