How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

From: https://planesandstuff.wordpress.com/2022/08/09/novofedorivka-saky-air-base-attack-satellite-imagery/

if you go to the website, you can get the more higher resolution version of it. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Emerging picture of potential blastwave. The last tweet, I have no idea if that is truly where the fuel/ammo depot is, but if true, that would have wrecked a lot of planes. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Two things from these tweets...

First the shockwave was able to knock windows and their frames out of place some 750KM+ distance.  Even if nothing else hit the planes out on the tarmac, they would likely have suffered damage.  But it seems like more hit them so destroyed or seriously damaged appears likely.

Second is the 1km distance between what likely produced the two very large explosions indicates, as I suspected, at least three hits.

Steve

[Hapless]

I feel like the Russian's biggest concern right now is cutting the internet connection to Crimea and getting a barrage battalion to the Kerch bridge to stop all those tourists disappearing into the Motherland with footage.

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

AFAIK it only has INS with terminal radar homing, but if it has TERCOM like Tomahawk that would be surprising to me.

Ah, I meant Neptun can hit targets, located close to the coast. Airbase in Novofedorivka corresponds to this. I don't know about TERCOM analog in Neptun, but was claimed it can hit ground targets, so at least it should be do this not worse, than Kh-35U. 

If the missile has GPS homing as option and terrain is flat, there is no much obstacles to hit ground targets not far from seacost

Also I added about Sapsan/Hrim-2

Edited August 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Ah, I meant Neptun can hit targets, located close to the coast. Airbase in Novofedorivka corresponds to this. I don't know about TERCOM analog in Neptun, but was claimed it can hit ground targets, so at least it should be do this not worse, than Kh-35U.

Also I added about Sapsan/Hrim-2

My knowledge of this stuff is pretty limited, but I don't think it is very difficult to have a fairly flat trajectory missile flying at low altitude do a nose dive onto a horizontal surface at a given location.  That should be practical for hitting targets close to the coast, but the further you go inland the more topographical variables come into play and it doesn't sound like the Neptune is capable of handling them.  Which makes sense because this missile is designed to fly over water, not complex terrain like a cruise missile.

In a way maybe it is like a NLAW.  It doesn't have the Javelin's complex targeting and flight systems, but it gets the job done within a more limited set of circumstances.

Steve

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Hapless said:

I feel like the Russian's biggest concern right now is cutting the internet connection to Crimea and getting a barrage battalion to the Kerch bridge to stop all those tourists disappearing into the Motherland with footage.

that is a really good point.  These videos are gonna be all over RU social media.  

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Personally, I think it is unlikely Neptun was used for these strikes: they are too valuable as a deterrent against the Black Sea Fleet and they do not have TERCOM for land-attack (similarly, Harpoon only has very limited land attack capability)

If it was a Ukrainian missile system, I'd probably conjecture it was Sapsan, which was reported to be 80% complete in February 2021:

https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/weapon_and_tech/otrk_sapsan_dlja_zsu_u_minoboroni_rozkrili_shljah_priskorennja_prijnjattja_na_ozbrojennja-2847.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

 

You know five months is just about how long it would take to ship ship a bunch of equipment to the most anonymous warehouse in Poland, put it back together and start making rockets. Assuming you had the FULL support of the Polish Government, and maybe a tiny bit of help from a U.S.defense contractor, or a South Korean one.. I am sure Poland will be joyously happy with the new joint production line. I also wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they are working on a second stage to put this thing up in the thousand mile range territory. The Russians really should quit while before the hole they have been digging collapses.

All complete speculation, but.....

[Calamine Waffles]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ah, I meant Neptun can hit targets, located close to the coast. Airbase in Novofedorivka corresponds to this. I don't know about TERCOM analog in Neptun, but was claimed it can hit ground targets, so at least it should be do this not worse, than Kh-35U. 

If the missile has GPS homing as option and terrain is flat, there is no much obstacles to hit ground targets not far from seacost

Also I added about Sapsan/Hrim-2

That would be viable for the targets near the coast, but I don't know if they are accurate enough to hit specific targets on an airfield.

This person has first-hand knowledge and training on the similar Harpoon, and this is his opinion
 

Neptune does have a bigger warhead, though.

As for Sapsan, Defense Express reported in 2021 that the Ukrainian MoD restarted the Sapsan project and gave it funding, so I don't know what its status is.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_defense_ministry_to_finance_creation_of_sapsan_missile_system-1808.html

[Battlefront.com]

The effect of a Neptune on a target would be directly related to what the target was.  Fuel depot?  It's going to make an impression!  Office building?  Not impressive.

Also, I don't think there's much of a difference to a Neptune between a ship and a fuel storage tank.  Both are vertical surfaces.  As long as the tank had clear LOS to the coastline at the targeted altitude, my guess is it's totally plausible.

It seems the first hit (or other hits?) didn't strike anything explosive.  The two later hits very clearly did.  So maybe we saw a half dozen Neptunes with the first few missing and the last two hitting.  That is consistent with all information we have on hand.

Steve

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

That would be viable for the targets near the coast, but I don't know if they are accurate enough to hit specific targets on an airfield.

This person has first-hand knowledge and training on the similar Harpoon, and this is his opinion
 

Neptune does have a bigger warhead, though.

As for Sapsan, Defense Express reported in 2021 that the Ukrainian MoD restarted the Sapsan project and gave it funding, so I don't know what its status is.

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_defense_ministry_to_finance_creation_of_sapsan_missile_system-1808.html

About "catastrofic effect" - even suicide drone enough to make big boom if it impact in FAB-500 stockpile ot in oil tank). UKR attack with long-range commercial drone, turned out in kamikadze on Russian refinerty in deep rear showed, that even small HE charge can inflict serious damages. 

About Sapsan artilce, key phrase  we stated our readiness to expand funding. This never be implemented in real. All works Pivdenne and YuzhMash maintained allegedly for KSA and own funds. 

Probaly Taran called Hrim-2 as Sapsan as association with old project. I don't know why. 

[Beleg85]

Look at broken windons. Given it was working day and size of the blast, it wouldn't be surprising if at least several dozens civilians were hurt; not counting militaries at the base. I did not yet see any videos of ambulances driving to hospitals, though.

[Vet 0369]

55 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

None of this changes the strategic impact of this single attack.  Making a decision to pretend nothing happened and hope for the best is still a strategic decision.  Because if Ukraine has more of these to use, then Russia is doing nothing to cope with them.  If Ukraine never launches an attack again, the RU Nats will likely not return to the same tunes they were singing yesterday.  And what they say carries weight.  In fact, Grigb just posted something that suggests that ignoring the strike is already having some detrimental effect on the hardcore nationalists.

Steve

Strategically, I’d place the attack on the airbase in Crimea on the same level as the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo!

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile the night fell and missile exchange has begun

Explosions in Dnipro city area and Zaporizhzhia

UKR struck area of Nova Kakhovka - the dam area in the town and locations near villages nearby  - Malokahovka and Nova Mayachka.

Sounds of explosions in Nova Kakhovka

  

 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

Look at the map of Novofedorivka airbase.  Notice what is south of it.  Open, flat ground.  Provided the missiles had the maneuverability and range to overshoot the targets, then turn north, it seems terrain wouldn't be a problem.

I don't know what their penetration potential is against a hardened bunker.  One of the locations that likely exploded spectacularly looks to be a hardened bunker (two, in fact).  However, the high resolution imagery shows that there's a lot of containers arrayed outside.  Knowing Russia's natural inclination to ignore safe storage practices, it is possible they contained munitions, the missile touched those off, and from that caused a chain reaction.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Look at broken windons. Given it was working day and size of the blast, it wouldn't be surprising if at least several dozens civilians were hurt; not counting militaries at the base. I did not yet see any videos of ambulances driving to hospitals, though.

One source that was 20km away said they heard and felt the blast.  Yeah, that was powerful.

Steve

[akd]

Here perhaps:

45°05'58"N 33°34'47"E

Longer version:

 

Edited August 9, 2022 by akd

[Calamine Waffles]

Usually the ammunition storage at airfields is hardened, though obviously I cannot exclude Russian stupidity in handling ammunition.

As for Sapsan, well, parts of it already exist (TEL/rocket engine), so it doesn't seem impossible they may have completed it  since the last report in 2021 (1.5 years), but we will see.
 

Quote

Currently, it is known about the successful tests of the rocket's solid fuel engine and the creation of a corresponding stock of 12 units.

After all, Neptun was not yet in service when the war began either.

[Calamine Waffles]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Look at the map of Novofedorivka airbase.  Notice what is south of it.  Open, flat ground.  Provided the missiles had the maneuverability and range to overshoot the targets, then turn north, it seems terrain wouldn't be a problem.

I don't know what their penetration potential is against a hardened bunker.  One of the locations that likely exploded spectacularly looks to be a hardened bunker (two, in fact).  However, the high resolution imagery shows that there's a lot of containers arrayed outside.  Knowing Russia's natural inclination to ignore safe storage practices, it is possible they contained munitions, the missile touched those off, and from that caused a chain reaction.

Steve

Neptun has a range of only 280 km. The straight line distance from the nearest point in the frontline is already 218 km, and that route is over land.

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Neptun has a range of only 280 km. The straight line distance from the nearest point in the frontline is already 218 km, and that route is over land.

I posted a map above - the way over the sea with several turnig points with launch point in Ochakiv area is 262 km. 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

None of this changes the strategic impact of this single attack.  Making a decision to pretend nothing happened and hope for the best is still a strategic decision.  Because if Ukraine has more of these to use, then Russia is doing nothing to cope with them.  If Ukraine never launches an attack again, the RU Nats will likely not return to the same tunes they were singing yesterday.  And what they say carries weight.  In fact, Grigb just posted something that suggests that ignoring the strike is already having some detrimental effect on the hardcore nationalists.

Steve

I mean sure, doing nothing is still strategic decision. What I mean is in system like Putin's (where everybody avoid resposibility as they can), surprising amount od signals from outside can simply be ignored like they did not exist or at least downgraded to point of irrelevance; at least for some time. Now they probably try to assess what the hell happened- I do not envy the messanger who bring news to Putin's long table.

And we should be always cautious with giving Russian nationalists opinions too much of significance- as one of the few politically active parts of Russian society, they are accustomed to being slapped by Kremlin in the face and forced to sit by. They are ofc also profoundly penetrated by FSB and other services, as Grigb wrote. Hard to tell if Putin even care at all for their opinions- maybe only in broader sense of reactions of more conservative parts of Russian society.

It is paradox of sort, but in current state of things I am even inclined to believe that a marble bust of tsar dead for three centuries may have more influence on Putin's decisions than milions of people currently living in Russia.

[Calamine Waffles]

Yeah, that's about the near the limit of its range. Not saying it can't be done, but there's very little margin for error. Making maneuvers, especially at sea level, will reduce the range because the missile has to expend energy making those turns

Edited August 9, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[akd]

Possibly the fuel depot north of this location was hit, not the ammo bunkers.

Edited August 9, 2022 by akd

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, akd said:

Here perhaps:

45°05'58"N 33°34'47"E

The guy said "in those distant hangar - 6 KIA, and here was my food storage" (food? really?)

[Beleg85]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The guy said "in those distant hangar - 6 KIA, and here was my food storage" (food? really?)

Op, sorry misread his words. I think he said guys "from my squad" (?). Maybe shell shocked.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

After all, Neptun was not yet in service when the war began either.

Neptune was adopted Aug 23 2020. Before this already existed test battery set (based on KRAZ base, later Neptune has Tatra base). About dozen or more missiles were produced, partially launched during tests. Of course unknown, how much missiles or their kits were ready on Feb 24.