How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3100301/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-and-chairman-of-the-joint-chiefs-of-sta/

Transcript of press conference from yesterday concerning the Ukraine Contact Group (countries providing support to Ukraine), with Defense Secretary Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Milley.

Special notes I am highlighting, the UK, Baltics, Czechia, Australia, Norway, Poland are stated by name in the conference as providing support to Ukraine. 

The last meeting which was last month, HIMARS were inbound to Ukraine and training ongoing. In one month, General Milley highlights that the UKR use of them HIMARS has been quick and significant on the battlefield. 

Quote

So for the last 90 days, the Russians have massed their ground maneuver forces in that region and the Ukrainians have fought a very effective mobile defense in depth -- an area of defense in depth anchored on very strong points in -- in urban and village areas, and they have fought the Russians very effectively.

So for 90 days, the Russian advances have amounted to maybe six to 10 miles, something of that range.  It's not very much.  It's very intense, a lot of violence, tens of thousands of artillery rounds every 24-hour period, lots of casualties on both sides, lots of destruction of -- of villages and -- and -- and so on.  But in terms of actual ground gain, very, very little by the Russians, relative to all of Ukraine.

As you know, the Ukrainians conducted a controlled, deliberate, planned withdrawal from Severodonetsk.  They conducted a rearward passage of lines and conducted a rear river crossing and they set up a new line generally to the west of Severodonetsk, and they are continuing significant resistance.

So the bottom line is, the cost is very high, the gains are very low, there is a grinding war of attrition that is occurring in the -- in the Luhansk, Donbas region, Luhansk, Donetsk, the two (inaudible) of Donbas, and to answer your question about is the Donbas lost, no, it's not lost yet.  The Ukrainians are making the Russians pay for every inch of territory that they gain.  And -- and advances are measured in literally hundreds of meters on a -- on a -- some days, you might get a kilometer or two out of the Russians, but not much more than that.  So high cost, battle of attrition, grinding, not lost yet in -- in -- in the Donbas, and the Ukrainians intend to continue the fight.

 

[Vacillator]

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

New batch of UK support

()

Edited July 21, 2022 by Vacillator

[JonS]

12 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I would vote for mix of: money + structural coercion + unique Russian fatalism.

By and large, money is a terrible motivator. It's a great way to get people to start something (new job, sign a contract, join the army) but it's not what keeps people in the game when the game gets tough.

Motivation is a famously tricky and slippery concept though, which folks have been pondering for quite a while.

"in any 20-man platoon, there will be 6 gutful men who will go anywhere and do anything, 12 'sheep' who will follow a short distance behind if they are well led, 4-6 who will run away."
LTCOL Lionel Wigram, 1943

https://books.google.co.nz/books?id=We1HZDUTpdEC&pg=PA238&lpg=PA238&dq=wigram+gutful+men&source=bl&ots=HeHzOzGH1K&sig=ACfU3U315irwUvSjZBZ4knb_nj1dkaxg3A&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwisgOy79Ir5AhVF6nMBHWH3BSEQ6AF6BAgiEAM#v=onepage&q=wigram gutful men&f=false

Wigram was the guy who started battle drill in the UK, early in WWII. He recognised that the existing training was wildly inappropriate, and while he was developing and running his battle schools he had occasion to think abut combat effectiveness, a lot. He had even more chance to think about it after he annoyed Montgomery, was demoted, and sent to lead a rifle company in Italy. Wigram was killed in action there. Gutfully.

Edited July 22, 2022 by JonS

[Haiduk]

After Russian trooper, destroying abandoned S-300 with PKM point-blank shot, here the next Russian "superman", which shot PFM-1 antipersonnel mine with AK from five steps. Though, you can see the power of explosion. This is scary weapon, which hasn't enough HE to kill, but enough to tear off the foot or leg under the knee. Russians are sowing remotely big areas with different types of PFM mines, using Uragan MLRS with missiles, containing dozens of theese mines. Usually PFMs has self-destruction timer, but some types havn't it and many outdated mines this timer don't work. So, PFM clearing will be big problem in Ukriane for years. Even enemy side write, that own PFMs create a big trouble for own units and recon groups movement on captured territories - all treeplants and fields often dotted with theese mines

 

Edited July 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

MT-12 AT-guns still in action. Rare opportunity to see how it hit the target - Russian  MTLB. This is in Borshchova, 12 km NE from Kharkiv, not Kherson oblast

 

 

Edited July 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

My instincts say consolidation will win out, but only richer nations will have the means to do so somewhat effectively.  However, for a longer war in the stage the current Ukraine war is in, spreading out might be the better solution.  At least for Russia as it doesn't seem Ukraine has the same degree of vulnerability as Russia does.

Probably. Of course, the cost of spreading out is an awful lot of self-induced friction in your own log chain. That will mean accepting a much slower tempo, or conducting operations with a lot more risk. Or, most likely, both.

[Beleg85]

24 minutes ago, JonS said:

Wigram was the guy who started battle drill in the UK, early in WWII. He recognised that the existing training was wildly inappropriate, and while he was developing and running his battle schools he had occasion to think abut combat effectiveness, a lot. He had even more chance to think about it after he annoyed Montgomery, was demoted, and sent to lead a rifle company in Sicily. Wigram was killed in action there. Gutfully.

Yep, one of legends behind modern military psychology of combat. Also, one of only several non-Americans in the field.

However, in current Russian context money can be motivation why they generally tend to stay at the front. If you are fresh contractor/PMC money is probably only reason why you joined, and it is simply non-viable to ask for leave and go back to your wife with empty hands. This also can be connected to machismo culture Steve wrote before. But even if you die, don't worry, as your wife in brand new White Lada will visit your (symbolic) grave. So in wider family context, it's win-win.

What an occassion.

35 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here the result of strike. Locals tell there were tents for personnel. Looks like one drone burned the tent with canteen. This happened several days ago - I've seen posts of locals in twitter, about some unknown mess in Russian deployment near nuclear plant and as if they suffered some losses  

Interesting. Warmate has very small warhead not exceeding heavy granade, probably taking out small tent is maximum of its capabilities; but it seems in this case it burned quite sizeable area.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

https://euro-sd.com/2022/07/articles/exclusive/26879/spain-3/

An update regarding Spain sending those Leopard 2A4s to Ukraine.

[Letter from Prague]

More drama on the EU front.

EU asked all members to commit to conserving gas. The countries that are not using Russian gas predictably said no.

This is especially fun for Spain and Portugal, because they have pipeline from Africa and a lot of LNG terminal capacity, but their gas network isn't connected to rest of Europe for some reason - they have been trying to connect it for decades, but France and Germany always rejected it (didn't want competition for NordStream I guess?).

As an extra bit of juiciness, in the rejection statement, the third prime minister of Spain (I'm not going to pretend I understand how that works) said "unlike someone, we haven't been living above our means, energy wise" quoting a speech they were given when they had austerity measures imposed on them.

I think this is great example of how EU Army idea is a complete nonsense.

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

More drama on the EU front.

EU asked all members to commit to conserving gas. The countries that are not using Russian gas predictably said no.

This is especially fun for Spain and Portugal, because they have pipeline from Africa and a lot of LNG terminal capacity, but their gas network isn't connected to rest of Europe for some reason - they have been trying to connect it for decades, but France and Germany always rejected it (didn't want competition for NordStream I guess?).

As an extra bit of juiciness, in the rejection statement, the third prime minister of Spain (I'm not going to pretend I understand how that works) said "unlike someone, we haven't been living above our means, energy wise" quoting a speech they were given when they had austerity measures imposed on them.

I think this is great example of how EU Army idea is a complete nonsense.

Poland and the Baltic Countries managed to get independent from RU gas just in time, I imagine idea of hurting anyway won't be very popular either... 

Edited July 21, 2022 by Huba

[acrashb]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Poland and the Baltic Countries managed to get independent from RU gas just in time, I imagine idea of hurting anyway won't be very popular either... 

It will be like with Covid vaccines early on: every country for itself.  This is human nature.  The governments in each country are accountable to their voters, not to the EU.

[Beleg85]

13 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

As an extra bit of juiciness, in the rejection statement, the third prime minister of Spain (I'm not going to pretend I understand how that works) said "unlike someone, we haven't been living above our means, energy wise" quoting a speech they were given when they had austerity measures imposed on them.

I think this is great example of how EU Army idea is a complete nonsense.

Yep, Spain/Portugal/Greece has finally occassion for some cutting rhetoric in the subject. 

EU Army would basically demand whole Europe becoming federal state. Absolutelly impossible under current conditions, too many contradictory interests. However, if Germany and several others finally cut off ties with Russia in let's say 5-7 years (they are on right track), I don't see entire project as complete nonsense in longer time. At some levels we are actually pretty close already, but throught NATO structres. History can often turn overnight.

Look how fast this thing can be.

[Letter from Prague]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Look how fast this thing can be.

Yes, but shouldn't it be going sideways?

[akd]

Can't remember if this was linked already, but an important article hinting at the scale of refuseniks.

136th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade - 300 refuseniks

5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade - 150 refuseniks

205th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade - approx. 300 refuseniks

Quote

 

"Mass trials of servicemen will raise public outcry. Then you have to admit that during the “operation” something went wrong. The command does not want to deal with such risks, ”says the lawyer. 

Therefore, between the command and refuseniks there is something like a "tacit agreement" on silence in exchange for a quick dismissal, Grebenyuk claims. 

 

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2022/07/18/tisyachi-rossiiskih-voennih-pitayutsya-uvolitsya-iz-armii-a22360

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

115th mech.brigade. ...

Command ordered them to turn back and dig in, but battalion rejected because "we are former civilians and havn't combat experience, so we just will die there". 

Ah, yes, those guys.  Sorry fellas... you signed up to be part of the army.  You do not get to decide on your own which orders to follow.  As we saw there, as well as Popasna, others are going to have to pay the price with their lives for such insubordination.  Whether senior command made the right decisions or not is a separate issue.

I poked around and found a huge amount of Russian propaganda in the usual sock puppet websites talking about how the entire brigade deserted and other things that are not true.  I found a couple of sources debunking the claims, but this one seems to have it right:

https://mythdetector.ge/en/does-the-115th-brigade-have-enough-weapons-and-who-refused-to-continue-fighting/

According to this it was the 3rd Battalion only and it seems the unit is not reflective of the rest of the brigade's will to fight.

Not that it matters.  According to official Russian military spokesman, the entire 115th Mech Brigade was "destroyed" (600 casualties... wow, small brigade!) in the Seversk area.  The Russians must really suck at fighting because even with this "destroyed brigade" their attacks failed.

It is also fun to note that Russia also "destroyed" a battalion of the 241st Territorial Defense Brigade.  Yet another unit that Ukraine never had is removed from the fantasy battlefield!  You people in Poland should be scared that you're next!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

By and large, money is a terrible motivator. It's a great way to get people to start something (new job, sign a contract, join the army) but it's not what keeps people in the game when the game gets tough.

Seems this isn't as true for the Russian culture as others.  One reason is early on it became clear that if you broke your contract you weren't going to get paid what was owed to you.  There was quite a lot of high profile bitching about guys IN THE TRENCHES who didn't get their money and were told they would only get it when they finished up or some other such nonsense.

It seems easy money is a significant motivator for many Russians.  The looting was not isolated.  The recruitment billboard showing a Russian soldier with a washing machine was not accidental.

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Probably. Of course, the cost of spreading out is an awful lot of self-induced friction in your own log chain. That will mean accepting a much slower tempo, or conducting operations with a lot more risk. Or, most likely, both.

For sure spreading out is really inefficient, which is why consolidation is the standard for all forms of logistics.  However, if faced with losing all your artillery rounds in concentrated depots, and having absolutely nothing to shoot, the inefficiencies of spreading out start making sense.

Steve

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is also fun to note that Russia also "destroyed" a battalion of the 241st Territorial Defense Brigade.  Yet another unit that Ukraine never had is removed from the fantasy battlefield!  You people in Poland should be scared that you're next!

Spokesmen of Russian GenStaff doesn't have even half the swag Baghdad Bob had, but when comes to fantasy claims he probably already surpassed him.

Given how much paranoia was projected upon Lukashenka by one PL border guard using kid's sling to shot down cameras on Belarussian side, I think we could erect brigade of dummy scarecrows in uniforms at the border to give him nice, never-ending feeling of being mortally threatened.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Seems this isn't as true for the Russian culture as others.  One reason is early on it became clear that if you broke your contract you weren't going to get paid what was owed to you.  There was quite a lot of high profile bitching about guys IN THE TRENCHES who didn't get their money and were told they would only get it when they finished up or some other such nonsense.

Of course they're bitching - the thing they agreed to isn't being honoured. I'd be bitching too, as would you. Again, the money is why they joined, but it isn't a good motivator. If they got themselves into a Mariupol-like situation, I highly doubt they - or anyone - would stand and die for the sake of $400/day, or a washing machine.

To put this another way, money is a good motivator to get people to take the first step, but it won't motivate them to take the last step.

Edited July 22, 2022 by JonS

[Butschi]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Attack is harder than defence - a human being will naturally defend themselves, moving out from safety to attack takes some working up to particularly if you know the opponent is ready.  The "insecure superiority complex" could go a long way to explain some of what we have seen in this war.

That is a possible explanation but maybe not necessary. German soldiers the 1944 Ardennes Offensive were highly motivated. And not (only) because they were fanatic Nazis but because they were finally attacking again. It gave them hope that maybe there was a chance to still win this war.

Plus, just speculating here, definding in this war basically means waiting for the often invisible drone to find you followed by death raining from above without much you can do about it. This situation is in a way similar to soldiers in a trench in WW1. Although casualties, overall, weren't higher than in WW2, the number of traumatized soldiers was. The word "Kriegszitterer", something like shell shocked in english, was specifically used during WW1, WW2 had this much less because although fighting was no less fierce at least the front was moving.

So, although attacking is probably still way more dangerous than defending, it at least gives a small sense of taking fate in your own hands.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Plus, just speculating here, definding in this war basically means waiting for the often invisible drone to find you followed by death raining from above without much you can do about it. This situation is in a way similar to soldiers in a trench in WW1. Although casualties, overall, weren't higher than in WW2, the number of traumatized soldiers was. The word "Kriegszitterer", something like shell shocked in english, was specifically used during WW1, WW2 had this much less because although fighting was no less fierce at least the front was moving.

So, although attacking is probably still way more dangerous than defending, it at least gives a small sense of taking fate in your own hands.

Oh, definitelly. And "Fear of the drone" on modern battlefield (and immediatelly behind frontline) is actually interesting, new topic in itself from point of view of military psychology. It's curious how much soldiers of both sides can rationalize and internalize this fear and still do their work. Since those little buggers can still spot/kill you 30 km behind main lines, we should observe massive "uneasiness" even among soldiers whoe are deep in the back, not directly at the lines of contact.  Yet, judging by  most videos of this war, I would say people in warzones aren't especially moved by this "silent threat" until very last moment, when shells start to rain on their heads.

So this threat is probably processed by our brains as a kind of distant passive danger, like possibility of car accident ("it won't happen to me", "what I can't see, won't kill me") and rationalized as "**** happens" without too much overthinking? Maybe it is too "potential" and not so wrecking for nerves as we previously discussed here?

On the other hand, soldiers directly and visibly threatened by drones can be very moved by their presence- we all probably see videos of whole squads taxing sky nervously. In one interview an Ukrainain Int. Legion volunteer said that on combat patrol they have 1-2 guys that are always scanning space above them, and that they don't even wear helmets to be more efficent (he also curiously remarked that they had problems with marching and nausea, as they couldn't figure out how to walk on their foots and observe at the same time). But this is combat zone with special rules, but what about areas directly behind? Do this have any significant effect on overall morale? Maybe doctors on both sides already are forced to find a new taxonomy to diagnose soldiers with "dronophobia" (well, Ukrainian doctors, Russians most probably don't care about such nuances)?

Actual vital quesions if Ukrainains want to put pressure on Russians in Kherson by deep fires alone.

 

On other note, first reports that some Russians were sorrounded at Vysokopilya in Kherson. Probably we will know more tomorrow.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure spreading out is really inefficient, which is why consolidation is the standard for all forms of logistics.  However, if faced with losing all your artillery rounds in concentrated depots, and having absolutely nothing to shoot, the inefficiencies of spreading out start making sense.

Oh yeah, it really does make sense: stop doing the thing that hurts.

What I was getting at is a version of the old OODA loop - maybe call it the OOLA loop? Observe - Orient - Logistics - Act. If your logistics are spread out because otherwise they keep turning into impromptu Guy Fawkes displays, then the L part of your loop is going to be really slow. While that would make Patton sad, it doesn't really matter as long as sides are broadly under the same constraint. But if the other guy can keep his logistics consolidated, or at least more consolidated than you can, then he's going to be running rings around you.

This is an element and example of war-is-negotiation that The Capt keeps talking about.

Edited July 22, 2022 by JonS

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

More drama on the EU front.

EU asked all members to commit to conserving gas. The countries that are not using Russian gas predictably said no.

This is especially fun for Spain and Portugal, because they have pipeline from Africa and a lot of LNG terminal capacity, but their gas network isn't connected to rest of Europe for some reason - they have been trying to connect it for decades, but France and Germany always rejected it (didn't want competition for NordStream I guess?).

As an extra bit of juiciness, in the rejection statement, the third prime minister of Spain (I'm not going to pretend I understand how that works) said "unlike someone, we haven't been living above our means, energy wise" quoting a speech they were given when they had austerity measures imposed on them.

I think this is great example of how EU Army idea is a complete nonsense.

Mississippi and New York are not so very fond of each other either, and yet we have shambled on for ~250 years. Granted there was that one outbreak of unpleasantness, but even so.

 

24 minutes ago, JonS said:

Oh yeah, it really does make sense: stop doing the thing that hurts.

What I was getting at is a version of the old OODA loop - maybe call it the OOLA loop? Observe - Orient - Logistics - Act. If your logistics are spread out because otherwise they keep turning into impromptu Guy Fawkes displays, then the L part of your loop is going to be really slow. While that would make Patton sad, it doesn't really matter as long as sides are broadly under the same constraint. But if the other guy can keep his logistics consolidated, or at least more consolidated than you can, then he's going to be running rings around you.

This is an element of war-is-negotiation that The Capt keeps talking about.

It is also worth pointing out that spread out is just about impossible if the civilian populace doesn't like you much. The battle for Kyiv being exhibit A in some regards.

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

MT-12 AT-guns still in action. Rare opportunity to see how it hit the target - Russian  MTLB. This is in Borshchova, 12 km NE from Kharkiv, not Kherson oblast

Did Russian parked this MTL in wrong neighbourhood or your guys somehow managed to move AT Gun into range? Surprisingly such vintage equipment is still usable outside fixed fortifications. Anyway, congratulations for good work.

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Yes, but shouldn't it be going sideways?

You mean why he does not move by road? Hard to tell. But looks very intimidating and epic, especially in those sunflowers.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Of course they're bitching - the thing they agreed to isn't being honoured. I'd be bitching too, as would you. Again, the money is why they joined, but it isn't a good motivator. If they got themselves into a Mariupol-like situation, I highly doubt they - or anyone - would stand and die for the sake of $400/day, or a washing machine.

To put this another way, money is a good motivator to get people to take the first step, but it won't motivate them to take the last step.

For sure the bitching was warranted.  I guess I didn't make my point about that very clear, so here goes..

The guys who joined up for money and yet were being stiffed wound up staying to fight even though the money they were promised wasn't paid as it should have been.  You or I, and probably anybody on this Forum, would have left the scene entirely.  As you say, money is not a good motivator in the first place, so why risk life and limb for someone that isn't even living up to what they agreed to pay?  And yet the Russians stayed fighting.  Makes me think that there's something different going on with their culture compared to ours.

I do agree that under extreme circumstances monetary motivation isn't likely going to be the make or break part of the equation.  If they stay then they're staying for reasons other than money.

Steve

[JonS]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

You mean why he does not move by road?

Crabs on the move, by road:

Note: sideways movement