How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[rocketman]

Would be interesting to check the international ties to those who voted no. Or are they on the record of being against NATO?

[photon]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine could destroy the Kherson bridge (or render it useless) right now through one or more means.  It can not likely destroy Kerch bridge at the moment.  To do that it needs a new capability which, so far, it is not slated to get.

One thing I wonder is whether the flow of troops and material into the Kherson area is positive or negative right now? If the Russians are moving more men and equipment across the river, why not wait until they stop the flow to cut off a richer pocket? I suppose you'd have to weigh other political and strategic concerns and time dropping the bridge with other action along the southern front?

[Huba]

This wasn't posted here yet I think

 

 

[billbindc]

50 minutes ago, rocketman said:

Would be interesting to check the international ties to those who voted no. Or are they on the record of being against NATO?

In order to refrain from a partisan bun fight, let's just say that most of them vote that way even when the larger GOP caucus is supportive of a natsec bill. It's mostly driven by the political considerations of their niche.

[Calamine Waffles]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

In order to refrain from a partisan bun fight, let's just say that most of them vote that way even when the larger GOP caucus is supportive of a natsec bill. It's mostly driven by the political considerations of their niche.

They're basically the isolationist MAGA wing of the Republican Party. There is a similar kind of wing on the Democrat left side, but they are not *that* isolationist.

Edited July 19, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[cesmonkey]

56 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

They're basically the isolationist MAGA wing of the Republican Party. There is a similar kind of wing on the Democrat left side, but they are not *that* isolationist.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3565022-the-18-house-republicans-who-voted-against-a-resolution-to-support-finland-sweden-joining-nato/

[FancyCat]

I think the main reason why Ukraine is not rushing to blow the Kherson crossing points is right now, Russia is stuck reinforcing and holding a very poor position on the western bank of the Dnipro with a frontline on the outskirts of Kherson all the way matching nearly all of Kherson oblast borders. My thoughts are that Russia, both to prep for future offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv and to seize full control of the oblast borders for annexation is now stuck in a position where only two crossing points exist for the reinforcement of such a long front line that they cannot withdraw due to political and strategic reasons.

If I'm Ukraine, I want to take advantage of this situation to destroy as much Russian hardware as possible. If I were Russia, I would withdraw all forces from the western bank except for a group of last stands in Kherson, pull back over to the Eastern bank, where I think I can better fight back against Ukrainian long range artillery and have better logistical movement than literally two crossing points.

But that means giving up the occupation and annexation of Kherson oblast. A extremely costly decision, one that cannot be handwaved away in the domestic or foreign sense.

Furthermore, shipments of the rest of long range NATO artillery have not arrived yet. This is the appetizer. We have the rest of summer for Ukraine to launch the offensive, and they will use that time to more safely degrade Russian capability in Kherson with less risk for their own units.

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

They're basically the isolationist MAGA wing of the Republican Party. There is a similar kind of wing on the Democrat left side, but they are not *that* isolationist.

Yeah, the left is more about being anti-war than isolationist, the right is more isolationist than anti-war.  Both sides want to stay out of conflicts with nations that they feel some sort of ideological kinship with.  The list of Republicans who voted against that measure are on the record as being sympathetic towards (if not outright supportive of) Russia generally and Putin specifically.  Their vote on this particular bill is largely consistent with votes on other bills to hold Putin accountable.  The Hill article cited above touches on some of them.

This is not an attempt to bash the Republican Party but to explain to non-US political watchers what is going on.  These individuals are not influential when it comes to US national security matters.  Their votes should not be seen as relevant to gauging the US' support of Ukraine.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I think the main reason why Ukraine is not rushing to blow the Kherson crossing points is right now, Russia is stuck reinforcing and holding a very poor position on the western bank of the Dnipro with a frontline on the outskirts of Kherson all the way matching nearly all of Kherson oblast borders. My thoughts are that Russia, both to prep for future offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv and to seize full control of the oblast borders for annexation is now stuck in a position where only two crossing points exist for the reinforcement of such a long front line that they cannot withdraw due to political and strategic reasons.

If I'm Ukraine, I want to take advantage of this situation to destroy as much Russian hardware as possible. If I were Russia, I would withdraw all forces from the western bank except for a group of last stands in Kherson, pull back over to the Eastern bank, where I think I can better fight back against Ukrainian long range artillery and have better logistical movement than literally two crossing points.

But that means giving up the occupation and annexation of Kherson oblast. A extremely costly decision, one that cannot be handwaved away in the domestic or foreign sense.

Furthermore, shipments of the rest of long range NATO artillery have not arrived yet. This is the appetizer. We have the rest of summer for Ukraine to launch the offensive, and they will use that time to more safely degrade Russian capability in Kherson with less risk for their own units.

 

I don't seen a military advantage for leaving the Russians on the western side of the river a day longer than necessary.  The amount of forces there aren't very large and would be instantly cut off if the bridge is dropped.  The dam bridge is not rated for heavy equipment from what we've discussed, so at best it might get some guys coming over on foot.  That would be almost as embarrassing as losing them.  Azov didn't retreat when they had the chance, right?

Dropping the bridge would give Ukraine a pretty quick and significant military victory.  Meaningful, coordinated Russian defenses would likely break down immediately and soon after would there would be a large chunk of that would abandon their positions.  There would be a ripple effect that would convince middle-of-the-road Russian forces that resistance isn't possible and they would join the rabble leaving.  The hardcore Russians that remain would be quickly isolated and destroyed, which might shorten the list of Russians willing to stay and fight.  This is Ukraine's chance to bag hundreds, perhaps a few thousand, Russian POWs.

Regardless, both sides would benefit from being on opposite sides of the river.  Shortens the front by a lot and reduces the amount of daily contact fighting.  This is good for Ukraine as well as Russia.  However, the PR and morale benefit clearly benefits only Ukraine.

Aside from all of this, Russia's southern front now has it's flank exposed to all kinds of new threats.  Artillery able to fire into the rear of the forces putting pressure around Zaporizhia for one.  A long expanse of river frontage that "subversion groups" could infiltrate.  It's a great way to aid partisan activities.  Right now such actions require breaking through a conventional frontline, moving well into its rear, then mounting a dangerous crossing.  Not viable to move much more than individuals over the river that way.  To combat this Russia would have to keep almost as many troops as it has on the western side of the river positioned along the eastern side to defend against such moves.

Ukraine, on the other hand, really has nothing to worry about.  Russian artillery threat would still be there, but there wouldn't be anything of value to hit because Ukraine, unlike Russia, wouldn't need to keep as many forces there.  Oh, I'd guess Ukraine could redeploy more than half of their existing forces elsewhere while Russia would likely have to keep about 80% available and they would likely need to be new units as the existing ones would be decimated.

I can see no downside for doing this and doing it soon.

Steve

[Huba]

UA releasead a "thank you" video about AHS Krab:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1008343476539139

Also, UA deputy-MoD rattles his sabre at Russians. This guy is rather not well know for doing it, last time he made such declaration, UA retook the Snake Island.

Oh, and if anybody missed that, tomorrow the Ramstein-4 meeting will take place, as usual it is expected that the bag of weapons for UA will be opened even wider.

Edited July 19, 2022 by Huba

[Taranis]

Explosions in Kherson :
"Explosions reported in Kherson, smoke visible"

"Explosions reported near Chornobaivka"

 

 

Kharkiv area :
"Russian attack near Udy failed, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report"
https://t.me/lumsrc/2147


Bakhmut area :
"Ukrainian military repelled all Russian attacks towards Semyhirya, Vershyna, Pokrovske and Vuhlehirsk power station, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine says in the morning report"

https://t.me/lumsrc/2153

Russian aviation :

Seems quite active today from Kharkiv to Donetsk (according to liveuamap news)
Will the Russians rely more on the air force to bomb because of the reduction in the use of their artillery (destroyed supply depots? Shortage of supply? Maintenance of guns? Reorganization?)

Edited July 19, 2022 by Taranis

[Grigb]

20 minutes ago, Huba said:

UA releasead a "thank you" video about AHS Krab:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1008343476539139

Small detail - the UKR guys from the video seem to have a certain affection for Krab.

[Huba]

Just now, Grigb said:

Small detail - the UKR guys from the video seem to have a certain affection for Krab.

I didn't understand that much, but they sounded quite happy with them ;). I read an interesting piece of information regarding the one Krab that was destroyed. Reportedly it happened due to crew ignoring the safety and firing too fast for too long, resulting in powder charge backfiring. Crew managed to bail out, taking heavily burned loader with them (fire suppression system saved them), but the charge continued too burn, resulting in catastrophic fire and ammo detonation. Or at least that's what our chief "twitter expert" Wolski said.

[Zeleban]

it seems that in the Ukrainian General Staff they read our forum. The Antonovsky Bridge has just been struck. Unfortunately, the video is too big and cannot be attached to the message. The bridge appears to have received minor damage.

[Huba]

Just now, Zeleban said:

it seems that in the Ukrainian General Staff they read our forum. The Antonovsky Bridge has just been struck. Unfortunately, the video is too big and cannot be attached to the message. The bridge appears to have received minor damage.

Here it is (or at least a part of it). It looks like multiple additional hits would be needed to really make the span collapse - OTOH, few more hits like that, and you wouldn't convince me to drive a tank on it...

 

[DesertFox]

5 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

it seems that in the Ukrainian General Staff they read our forum. The Antonovsky Bridge has just been struck. Unfortunately, the video is too big and cannot be attached to the message. The bridge appears to have received minor damage.

Good news if true.

[Grigb]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

I didn't understand that much, but they sounded quite happy with them ;).

Narrator was describing Krab overall capabilities (mainly wiki style - speed, rotation, rate of fire). Two crew men were describing "luxury stuff" - first young one described that, if necessary, Krab can act independently from Command post. Second one, commander, described a bit of Krab command console. He gets all the required information there and pass it down without voice commands (if I understood properly). 

It is like drivers of soviet style Lada with manual gearbox got proper western car with automatic transmission and all modern stuff.   

Quote

I read an interesting piece of information regarding the one Krab that was destroyed. Reportedly it happened due to crew ignoring the safety and firing too fast for too long, resulting in powder charge backfiring. Crew managed to bail out, taking heavily burned loader with them (fire suppression system saved them), but the charge continued too burn, resulting in catastrophic fire and ammo detonation. Or at least that's what our chief "twitter expert" Wolski said.

War is war. When your brothers-in-arms are dying you feel compelled to ignore safety rules. 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

RU Brain draining

• The second wave of emigration, according to experts, will be longer, more numerous, and also more diverse in composition. There will be many businessmen, the same IT specialists, professional specialists, as well as representatives of the academic environment...

Quote

Russians are packing their bags: the second wave of emigration will take 2 million people out of the country

A count to millions
On March 8, Konstantin Sonin, a professor at the University of Chicago, roughly estimated the number of those who left — about 200,000 people. Now this figure is much higher, according to Zhanna Batalova, senior political analyst at the American Institute for Migration Policy. After all, tens of thousands continued to leave for the same Georgia and Armenia, Turkey, Israel, the Baltic states, she told CNBC. And this is not counting the Russian diaspora abroad, whose representatives decided simply not to return after the outbreak of the war (Batalov estimates the number of such people at about 100,000).

According to the assessment of the Russian Association of Electronic Communications published on March 22, 50,000-70,000 IT specialists left the country in the first month of the war, and another 70,000-100,000 were expected to leave in April...

One of the trends in the emigration wave, judging by conversations with those with whom The Moscow Times spoke, is the departure of her husband abroad in order to settle down and then take out a family with children. That is, Russia will not only lose professional specialists, but in the longer term its demographic potential will noticeably deteriorate. Moreover, they leave not only from large cities: one of the interlocutors moved to Western Europe from a town in the Chelyabinsk region...

It is not the quantitative, but the qualitative consequences of emigration that are more important, he adds:

It is those who connected the Russian scientific world with global science who are leaving, and this loss will seriously affect the prospects for the development of science and higher education in the country...

 

[Lethaface]

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Completelly off-topic, but I came on very interesting discussion about reality of Mission Command. This scholar argue that whole concept is post-factum rationalization of certain trends in the army that were not fully clear even when in full motion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaUUV3Udu2s

On holidays so no time to watch the video, but it is my understanding that after the lost battle of Jena the Prussian army performed an analysis of what went wrong. Conclusion was that traditional planning and control were simply not realistic as high command was basically trying to manage a war based on info that was already outdated before it reached them. The battlefield was chaos and trying to control it in detail from higher up didn't make stuff any better or probably rather worse.

Later on von Moltke developed the concept (and afaik coined the phrase 'no plan survives first contact with the enemy') mainly as a better way to deal with the chaos and other challenves large scale modern war brought.

 

[Doc844]

Interesting that quite a few news sites are stating that Putlin is heading to Iran for face to face meetings with Khameni.  Seems a dangerous time politically to leave the country, many a leader have been deposed when out of the country, especially autocratic ones.  Anyone have any further info on this?

[Grigb]

Girkin wrote several posts.

• Link to blog article of anonymous linked to FSB. The author ranted about RU traitorous liberals who are stubbing in the back RU armed forces. (It is indication of growing split between RU Nats and RU liberals. Most likely RU civil war will be fought along the lines of this split)
• Various short clips from his interview of Naval "Girkin" (Klimov - the guy who declared that in RU-UKR war it was US that lost. I'm still trying to watch it, but the level of madness is too high)
•  Photo of Wagnerites who wrote Ork on their truck. Girkin ranted that it is stupid because it looks like low level RU fighters accepted that they came to punish UKR not liberate. But I will quote the last paragraphs because the rumor that RU army is emulating Wehrmacht looks like true [It was discussed for a long time in RU mil history circles that BTGr concept was attempt at emulate German Kamph group of WW2]. 

Quote

In general, if someone likes "war for the sake of war" with the attributes of a "tough mercenary", then in this most difficult military campaign there is no place to demonstrate their own "macho cool complexes". We need to fight for the hearts and minds of the Russian population of Novorossiya and Little Russia. And they look, among other things, at the emblems.

Not only that, our idiots in the Ministry of Defense, instead of the normal traditional distribution of troops on the FRONTS, created the groups "South", "Center", "North" - apparently with "zakos" [emulation] under the Wehrmacht and the song of V.Vysotsky's "Soldiers of the Center Group are walking through Ukraine" - so also "at low level" [now] someone wants to look not like liberators, but punitive ubermens....

• Link to article - The Bryansk governor reported the second shelling from Ukraine in a day and rant that everything is according to the plan
• Short clip (from interview I wrote above) comparing UKR attempts to up armor vehicles in 2014 and RU similar attempts now. I am posting except from my notes from full video: 

Quote

RU war supply issues cannot be quickly solved. It requires serious organizational changes.  Applique armor (very small number) for BMP-2 ordered in 20-21 were delivered to frontlines after two months of war. RU were laughing at UKR attempts to up armor vehicles in 2014 but it allowed UKR to decrease the losses. RU on the other hand failed

While I was writing he added two more posts describing what he thinks needs to be done. Will translated as soon as I can for reference.

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

13 minutes ago, Doc844 said:

Interesting that quite a few news sites are stating that Putlin is heading to Iran for face to face meetings with Khameni.  Seems a dangerous time politically to leave the country, many a leader have been deposed when out of the country, especially autocratic ones.  Anyone have any further info on this?

There are rumors that with personal visit he is finalizing purchase of 300 Iranian drones Shahed-191 and Shahed-129. RU badly needs drones. It looks like it is the only way to get them hence the reason for personal visit.

[panzermartin]

I wonder Iran facing the danger of war with Israel and US, would be really reluctant to provide these. Although it seems its producing them in big numbers.

The visit seems bigger than just drones, otherwise he wouldnt go in person I think. Turkey is also involved and this is a bit worrying.

[Grigb]

Here is Girkin proposal of what to do now [aka manifest of igniting RU civil War]. 

Quote

"Criticize - offer!"

It has been a long time since I wrote about what needs to be done in military-political terms in order to count on victory in the current war.

1. Policy measures.

• 1.1. Officially define the political goals of the war. I emphasize - not "SMO", but war.
• 1.1.1. The reunification of Novorossiya with the Russian Federation along the line Kharkiv-Dnepropetrovsk-Krivoy Rog - Nikolaev-Odessa (all inclusive).
• 1.1.2. The issue of immediate (after victory) reunification of the entire Slobozhanshchina (including Chernihiv and Sumy regions) should be decided in favor of reunification or temporarily postponed so that these regions later become part of the Russian Federation together with Kiev.
• 1.1.3. Liberate and denazify the whole of Little Russia at least to the "Curzon Line". In advance (right now) to create a controlled government of Ukraine-Little Russia on the liberated territory, recognize it as the only legitimate government in Ukraine, conclude agreements on military assistance with it and (immediately) begin the process of legal registration of the entry of Little Russia-Ukraine into the Union State with an eye to the subsequent (after the "quarantine period of denazification") reunification with Russia. Accordingly, by this act to deny the Kiev junta any legitimacy. In this case, it will not be necessary to declare war on the so-called "state of Ukraine" - you can continue to hide behind the "fig leaf" of the so-called "SMO" under the banner of helping the people of fraternal Little Russia. In turn, the government of Little Russia should officially return Novorossiya to the Russian Federation by concluding appropriate agreements.

2. Economic measures.

• 2.1. Immediately sever any supplies to and through the territory of "Ukraine", including gas and oil. Declare and consistently carry out an economic blockade of "Ukraine" by the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.
• 2.2. Within the Russian Federation - immediately begin the transfer of industry to military rails.
• 2.3. Immediately review all previously planned and initiated projects of a general Russian and regional scale, refusing (suspending) from those of them that are not critically important for the strategic development of the country. The released labor force should be directed to military production, military construction, to the active army, and resources for military needs.
• 2.4. For the duration of hostilities - to transfer under direct state control all enterprises that produce military and other strategically important products, foreign property - to nationalize (if the required cooperation is refused). To extend mobilization to workers of transport, energy networks and life support, prohibiting dismissals from workplaces and "reserving" employees of the most key specialties from conscription into the armed forces.

3. Military and military-political measures.

• 3.1. To carry out partial mobilization in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the mobilization of industry for the production of military products. Urgently begin the formation, equipping and training of the maximum possible number of new formations and units, as well as replenish the existing ones to full strength. To put into effect the provisions of military legislation providing for criminal liability for desertion, treason to the Fatherland and other war crimes. Abolish the moratorium on the death penalty. To impose martial law in all frontline regions and areas that may be threatened by enemy strikes, as well as wherever military necessity requires it.
• 3.2. Together with the newly created Government of Little Russia - to begin the creation of the Liberation Army, calling for service in it, including residents of already liberated regions and volunteers from among prisoners of war.
• 3.3. Officially restrict all the rights and freedoms of citizens of the Russian Federation for the duration of hostilities according to existing historical precedents. To concentrate the executive power in one hand by creating the State Defense Committee (GKO), entrusting it with all the powers and responsibility for the leadership of the state for the duration of hostilities. To create the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, entrusting her with the leadership of military operations on all fronts.
• 3.4. Consider the possibility of attracting the resources of migrant workers from the CIS countries (including, first of all, those who have already received Russian citizenship and a residence permit) to military service at the front and in the rear, providing for the necessary mobilization measures in their regard. To citizens hiding from mobilization and persons with a residence permit - apply measures on a general basis, regardless of whether they have a foreign or second citizenship. Non-citizens who do not want to serve can be used for compulsory work or immediately deported.
• 3.5. Immediately remove from all echelons of power persons who are vulnerable to recruitment by foreign intelligence services in connection with finding money, property and close relatives abroad. Close the borders of the Russian Federation for free travel abroad of all categories of citizens and non-citizens.
• 3.6. Clearly state at the international level that any intervention by any country with its own armed forces in military operations on the territory of Little Russia-Ukraine - will lead to war with the Russian Federation.

That's something like that... in short.

Does he understand that it will immediately ignite Civil War? I think yes - he is not stupid. But he (and majority of RU Nats) believe they will be able to murder enough people to force RU population into total submission.

[EDIT] Would like to add that he is going to attempt what Lenin did - wait for chaos to start killing people to force RU into submission. With his rants he is building rapport with the most extreme RU Nats who will be his fighters. He did it in UKR he will do it in RU. 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Grigb

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Here is Girkin proposal of what to do now [aka manifest of igniting RU civil War]. 

Does he understand that it will immediately ignite Civil War? I think yes - he is not stupid. But he (and majority of RU Nats) believe they will be able to murder enough people to force RU population into total submission.

Holy cow this guy is nuts. He's fun to read as long as he's analyzing the situation on the ground, but that is just pure madness. There would be revolution and/or civil war in a week since anybody started with this crap.