How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cargo-plane-crashes-near-greeces-northern-city-kavala-2022-07-16/

There are speculations that final destination could be Ukraine. Serbia is also selling arms to UA but secretly as it is a long Russia ally. First they said it was heading to Jordan, then Bangladesh. But why an Ukrainian plane with 8 Ukrainian crew members would be busy in times of war, transporting soviet compatible ammo to Bangladesh. 

Edited July 17, 2022 by panzermartin

[Haiduk]

46 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cargo-plane-crashes-near-greeces-northern-city-kavala-2022-07-16/

There are speculations that final destination could be Ukraine. Serbia is also selling arms to UA but secretly as it is a long Russia ally. First they said it was heading to Jordan, then Bangladesh. But why an Ukrainian plane with 8 Ukrainian crew members would be busy in times of war, transporting soviet compatible ammo to Bangladesh. 

This An-12 belonged to commercial air company. I think, despite the war, they continue to work according contracts. Russian airlifters havn't access to EU airspace, and UKR airlifters prices obviously more attractive than western. It's enoug long way for logistic to deliver mortar shells to Ukriane via Bangladesh. Though, all can be possible

Edited July 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

ITV news reportage from frontline near Sloviansk:

- T-72M1(R) fire indirectly

- DSHKM-TK HMG work (though, gunner do it not very good)

- 82 mm mortar

- Javelin

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Probably Russians really hve some trubles with own pontoon raiway bridge and railways near Kupyansk

 

[Haiduk]

Russians are moving further to the rear their large ammunition dumps out of HIMARS/Tochka-U ranges. Also they now trying to disperse own command centers, creating false and reserve command points, also new field command centers they will be dig in deeply. 

Of course, redeploying of ammunition dumps in the deep rear will demand more trucks, more fuel for continuous supply of BTGs  

Here the assesment of DefMon how will increase the time of supply on different directions

[fireship4]

Something occurs to me about the longer logistical routes - I have little knowledge on the subject and would be happy to be corrected.  I get the impression that this should affect the ability of the logistics system to respond to changes, but not necessarily affect throughput except where transport vehicles are a limiting factor.

If there are plenty of vehicles and demand stays the same, then the supply will arrive at the same rate: the rate at which they are sent out (allowing for mistakes along the way which will increase with more distance).  The journey time will be longer but this will have more effect if units use their own (likely more limited) number of vehicles to go and collect what they need from supply points, as they will be able to make fewer trips in the same amount of time.

Am I on the right track and does anyone know how resupply is handled in the Russian system?

Edited July 17, 2022 by fireship4

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian paramedic takes care of a soldier injured during a bombardment on the front line, as part of the Russian attack, July 17, 2022. GLEB GARANICH / REUTERS"

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russians are moving further to the rear their large ammunition dumps out of HIMARS/Tochka-U ranges. Also they now trying to disperse own command centers, creating false and reserve command points, also new field command centers they will be dig in deeply. 

Of course, redeploying of ammunition dumps in the deep rear will demand more trucks, more fuel for continuous supply of BTGs  

Here the assesment of DefMon how will increase the time of supply on different directions

I wonder when some ER-GMLRS from initial production batches will arrive there and ruin their day again....

[akd]

They are really leaning into this whole Nazi thing:

 

[poesel]

35 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

Am I on the right track and does anyone know how resupply is handled in the Russian system?

I also don't know how the Russians do it, but there are some general considerations.

If the last depot is further away from demand (the guns) then you need more trucks in total to keep up the same supply rate. Because those trucks might share the same roads, you may not have the capacity to keep up the supply rate to every gun (basically a bandwidth problem).
Those trucks might break down or be destroyed, creating even more congestions.
Then, due to the greater distance, you get lag: every request now needs more time than before. To compensate, you would need to stack more ammo at the gun itself. Which is problematic in two ways: you are more vulnerable to fire and if the ammo stacked at the gun is needed elsewhere you have to transport it again (buffer bloat).

So, if everything runs perfect and your roads have unlimited capacity and your trucks don't break down and nobody shoots at you - then it doesn't matter how close to the front your depot is.

 

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, poesel said:

I also don't know how the Russians do it, but there are some general considerations.

If the last depot is further away from demand (the guns) then you need more trucks in total to keep up the same supply rate. Because those trucks might share the same roads, you may not have the capacity to keep up the supply rate to every gun (basically a bandwidth problem).
Those trucks might break down or be destroyed, creating even more congestions.
Then, due to the greater distance, you get lag: every request now needs more time than before. To compensate, you would need to stack more ammo at the gun itself. Which is problematic in two ways: you are more vulnerable to fire and if the ammo stacked at the gun is needed elsewhere you have to transport it again (buffer bloat).

So, if everything runs perfect and your roads have unlimited capacity and your trucks don't break down and nobody shoots at you - then it doesn't matter how close to the front your depot is.

 

Great post!

[Huba]

47 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Great post!

Indeed! I have a few follow up questions to that, perhaps silly but I'm a layman:

- In the described system, would there be low level storage depots too, say at battalion/ company/ battery level, or is fuel/ ammunition loaded straight on the unit's own vehicles? I'm thinking about artillery ammo especially here.

- How do you determine what to deliver, when and how much? I imagine that's a BIG question bu at least in a broad sense, is it the units that make requests for stuff to the high logistical echelon, or is it top-down, with stuff being pushed to units based on some tables or general expectations of usage?

 

Also, there's new weekly Perun's video, this time about Belarus. To sum it up - they won't invade and are not a threat except for serving as a staging area for the Russians.

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

40 minutes ago, Huba said:

Indeed! I have a few follow up questions to that, perhaps silly but I'm a layman:

- In the described system, would there be low level storage depots too, say at battalion/ company/ battery level, or is fuel/ ammunition loaded straight on the unit's own vehicles? I'm thinking about artillery ammo especially here.

- How do you determine what to deliver, when and how much? I imagine that's a BIG question bu at least in a broad sense, is it the units that make requests for stuff to the high logistical echelon, or is it top-down, with stuff being pushed to units based on some tables or general expectations of usage?

 

Usually battalion level ammo dump deployed in the rear of battalion and some number of ammunition shared between companies ammo dumps. In the companies and battalion HQs exist a duty of officers, which responsible for accounting of ammunition level and it timely supply. From platoons level reports about wasted ammunition go to comapny HQ, from there - to battalion HQ and battalion ammo dump, from where the chief of the dump (comamnder of battalion supply unit) gives ammunition according to the order of battalion HQ. Delivering of ammunition to battalion ammo dump is a task of regimental/brigade supply unit, which takes it on regimental/brigade ammo dump

Number of needful ammunition calculates by higher officer of RAV service (RAV - missile and artillery armament). I don't know how it's in Russia, probably their RAV officers this is a level of regimental/brigade HQ, but in Ukraine at least since 2019 each battalion HQ has own RAV officer.   

Edited July 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

In some sobering news, the OSCE has submitted a document detailing the results of investigations into war crimes, violations of international and humanitarian law from April 1 to June 25, tho events only uncovered within this period are also discussed from prior time. The war crimes are sanctioned, extensive.

https://www.osce.org/odihr/522616

Russia did not bother to assist the investigation nor communicate back to the OSCE regarding it.

For a much condensed summary, the U.S has one with helpful page references.

https://osce.usmission.gov/response-to-moscow-mechanism-report-on-ukraine/

Mark Hartling puts it quite well. May I add that for a UN Security Council permanent representative nation to so openly conduct war crimes and actions violating international law, and one that was looked upon as to counter balance Western domination on the world stage is a deeply disappointing and terrifying reality if you worried about western hypocrisy and counted on balance to maintain international humanitarian law.

There can be no peace without the withdrawal of Russia from all of Ukraine, and the restoration of its citizens back to their borders.

 

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Usually battalion level ammo dump deployed in the rear of battalion and some number of ammunition shared between companies ammo dumps. In the companies and battalion HQs exist a duty of officers, which responsible for accounting of ammunition level and it timely supply. From platoons level reports about wasted ammunition go to comapny HQ, from there - to battalion HQ and battalion ammo dump, from where the chief of the dump (comamnder of battalion supply unit) gives ammunition according to the order of battalion HQ. Delivering of ammunition to battalion ammo dump is a task of regimental/brigade supply unit, which takes it on regimental/brigade ammo dump

Number of needful ammunition calculates by higher officer of RAV service (RAV - missile and artillery armament). I don't know how it's in Russia, probably their RAV officers this is a level of regimental/brigade HQ, but in Ukraine at least since 2019 each battalion HQ has own RAV officer.   

Thanks! That's what I wanted to know.

In other news, looks like UA lost a frist Krab  Had to happen, but a sad sight anyway.

 

 

[Huba]

I'm listening to a weekly podcast by a Polish journalist, and he made an interesting suggestion about the potential transfer of American planes. He claims that given that there wasn't enough time to really re-train UA pilots, the only way to get them the F16 (and even more so F-15C) would be to have them flown by American pilots of UA ancestry, who speak the language and who would got handed Ukrainian passports. Probably finding enough  such men among present and retired USAF pilots shouldn't be that hard.

This sounds perfectly logical to me, but what do people from the other side of the pond think? Any obvious reasons why it wouldn't be possible?

 

He also confirmed that there are 36 (now 35...) Krabs on Ukraine

Also confirmed that some of the  232 PT-91s are already in the Ukraine. There's no info how many, but at the moment we'll not be giving away all of them. 

And one more thing - according to him, the new UA forces raised with help of donated equipment consist of 2 armored, 2-3 mechanized and 4-5 motorized brigades. Not too shabby at all, that's a whole corps.

Link to video (in Polish)

Edited July 17, 2022 by Huba

[Machor]

RE: Mini and Micro UAV Defence

Turkey is fielding a native system named 'Şahin' (falcon) based on the Mk 19 - while they're too broke to field other systems they've advertised in numbers, I do expect this one will be prioritized for Syria and Northern Iraq:

It fires airburst grenades:

Aselsan develops Atom 40 mm high-velocity air bursting munition (HV ABM)

I remember @LongLeftFlank asking about using 40mm against drones.

 

[Machor]

15 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'm listening to a weekly podcast by a Polish journalist, and he made an interesting suggestion about the potential transfer of American planes. He claims that given that there wasn't enough time to really re-train UA pilots, the only way to get them the F16 (and even more so F-15C) would be to have them flown by American pilots of UA ancestry, who speak the language and who would got handed Ukrainian passports. Probably finding enough  such men among present and retired USAF pilots shouldn't be that hard.

This sounds perfectly logical to me, but what do people from the other side of the pond think? Any obvious reasons why it wouldn't be possible?

FWIW:

Quote

For many years, the Soviet Union never acknowledged and actively denied that its pilots flew in Korea during the Korean War and only China and North Korea took responsibility for Korean war operations. After the end of the Cold War, Soviet pilots who participated in the conflict began to reveal their role. Books by Chinese, Russian and ex-Soviet authors, such as Zhang Xiaoming, Leonid Krylov, Yuriy Tepsurkaev and Igor Seydov revealed details of the actual pilots and operations. From the beginning, Soviet pilots were ordered to avoid flying over areas in which they might be captured, which would indicate that the Soviet Union was an active combatant in the war. Soviet aircraft were adorned with North Korean or Chinese markings and pilots wore either North Korean uniforms or civilian clothes to disguise their origins. For radio communication, they were given cards with common Korean words for various flying terms spelled out phonetically in Cyrillic characters. These subterfuges did not long survive the stresses of air-to-air combat, however, when pilots often resorted inadvertently to their first language. Nevertheless, UN forces widely suspected the participation of Soviet aircrews, and intercepted radio traffic appeared to include combat pilots speaking Russian. In addition, USAF pilots claimed to recognize techniques and tactics specific to Soviet pilots, whom they referred to as "honchos" (from Japanese/Chinese terms meaning "squad leader").

 

[Huba]

Just now, Machor said:

FWIW:

 

Eagle/ Falcon/ Viper Alley - which one sounds best?

[FancyCat]

Well, i assume this is good.

 

 

[Haiduk]

16 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

The CEP of the Kh-22 is not 500 m, it's more like 3 miles (~5 km) in land attack mode. 500 m is with the radar against naval targets, which cannot be used against land targets.

They don't have an infinite number of Kh-101, Kh-555, and they can't launch all of them anyway because they need to keep some for use against NATO and/or China etc.

The Kh-22 is very much not impossible to intercept. It's a 1960s missile with 1950s technology. It's just that Ukraine doesn't have enough of the tools needed. Hopefully that will change.



 

Kh-22 had three generations and this one of first generation, which can use radar only against large ships already decomissioned from service. In present time Tu-22M3 bombers use third N-generation: Kh-22N (active), Kh-22NA (inertial with course corrections by relief) missiles, which has CEP 100 m (for Kh-22N, for NA I didn't found, but it СEP should be worse). Though, some number of second M-generation with CEP in 500 m also could be used. 

Since May 6, when was first launch, Russian Backfires launched 46 Kh-22 missiles and 8 newest Kh-32 (latter all were launched on May 6 on Kramatorsk area).

According to some sourcs USSR produced about 1000 Kh-22 of all modifications. Kh-32 was designed for Tu-22M3M usage, but since 2016, when it was adopted Russia allegedly produced (upgraded from existed Kh-22 to be precise) 30 of theese missiles.

Because Kh-22 has too high speed (4-6M) we havn't AD assets, capable to intercept it with good probability. Only our S-300V1 has some small chanses to intercept it close to the target on final section of trajectory. Reportedly 3 Kh-22 were shot down, once even was a reportage how a soldier shot Kh-22 with MANPAD, but this is ridiculos. I think, all theese three Kh-22 rather just crashed due to technical reasons, than were intercepted. 

Also active types of Kh-22 work on single frequency, so can be supressed by EW assets, but how to know which target Russian will choose next time?    

Edited July 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[G.I. Joe]

43 minutes ago, Huba said:

Eagle/ Falcon/ Viper Alley - which one sounds best?

Or for hostile ground forces...Hog Valley.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

I also don't know how the Russians do it, but there are some general considerations.

If the last depot is further away from demand (the guns) then you need more trucks in total to keep up the same supply rate. Because those trucks might share the same roads, you may not have the capacity to keep up the supply rate to every gun (basically a bandwidth problem).
Those trucks might break down or be destroyed, creating even more congestions.
Then, due to the greater distance, you get lag: every request now needs more time than before. To compensate, you would need to stack more ammo at the gun itself. Which is problematic in two ways: you are more vulnerable to fire and if the ammo stacked at the gun is needed elsewhere you have to transport it again (buffer bloat).

So, if everything runs perfect and your roads have unlimited capacity and your trucks don't break down and nobody shoots at you - then it doesn't matter how close to the front your depot is.

 

Just to add to this:

- Means greater chance of misdrops and error.  The Russian rely on a very simple “iron mountain” stockpiling system that is designed to overload sectors with ammo up front.  By pushing them back complicates things greatly with more routes and trucks to deal with.

- More exposure.  Based on the average range of extension looking like at least 100kms, that is an extra 1-2 hours on the road for resupply.  They will be open to arty, UAS and deep strike a LOT longer, particularly if they need more trucks to sustain.  And if you check Oryx, the Russian have taken a beating on logistics vehicles (1255 at last count, at least) [aside: at some point we should look at how much it is going to cost the Russian military to rebuild all this losses].

- Greater strain on Russian logistics in general.  Greater maintenance bills, more spare parts, and much more fuel costs.  This, plus data strain to keep this all organized, on an already crappy logistics capability is nothing but bad news.

- This will do nothing good for Russian morale on the ground.

So What?  Well first this looks like a pretty good indicator (if confirmed) the effect the HIMARs have been having.  Next the US should give the longer range precision ammo because a lot of those depots are on the beach and cannot pull back any further.  Then, the UA needs a cheaper deep strike capability to hit logistics vehicles along those roads.  Finally, this will limit the Russian offensive even more because they rely so heavily on massed fires.  Not only in ranges but duration.  We will likely see pulse offensives as opposed to continuous hard pressure.

If Russian logistics are blunted and fractured we may see the UA begin to shift operational targets and we may see Russian offensives become more narrow.

[Huba]

 

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 Next the US should give the longer range precision ammo because a lot of those depots are on the beach and cannot pull back any further.

IMO if that happens, the only viable areas where RU could hope to still advance would be in the north, where they could support their forces from relative safety of their own territory, perhaps making a full on effort on Kharkhiv? The next escalation thershold to cross will then be for Ukrainians to start hitting targets inside Russia proper. 

Meanwhile, BSF is expecting ATACMS to appear unannounced and takes measures not to die suddenly:

 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

In other news, looks like UA lost a frist Krab  Had to happen, but a sad sight anyway.

Reportedly blew on mine, crew bail out but turret get blown. I saw reports that mines shouldn't be there, so it was either work of Russian specnaz/saboteur teams or long-range mine layer devices Russians reportedly use en masse. Or simply mistake and somebody forgot to inform the crew about mines.

Anyway, it's 1 Krab and 1 M109 now. Hardly massive equipment lossess described by Austrian colonel.

To not be overwhelmed with bad news, a fresh joke from Russian propaganda:

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Beleg85