How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

54 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Can anyone confirm if this is the individual who launched the attack that killed the little girl in Vinnytsia? I ask because when I hear the name Anton Gerashchenko I become a little suspicious, because as @Haiduk pointed out what he says is not always accurate. 

 

I've seen this info on other resourses, so I can't say Gerashchenko was first. So this info can be reliable. 

[Haiduk]

Alchevsk, Luhansk oblast was HIMARSed. Reportedly two missiles struck the building and trolleybus depo, where Russian troops were deployed.

Edited July 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I've seen this info on other resourses, so I can't say Gerashchenko was first. So this info can be reliable. 

Thank you. It's good we now have the name of this individual.

Edited July 16, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[billbindc]

Automation of moving vehicles that must do complicated tasks is never simple or straightforward, part bajillion: https://breakingdefense.com/2022/07/exclusive-air-force-scraps-b-21-drone-wingman-concept/

[womble]

14 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It's pointless to send them strike aircraft like F-15Es if you don't give the Ukrainians the training and equipment to do proper SEAD.

How does the advent of HIMARS et al on the battlefield alter the SEAD equation? Can the ultra-responsive UKR artillery ISR net drop pinpoint precision ordnance on the ground-based AD components that are denying the airspace over the battlefield to the UKR airforce? How do the ranges compare?

Can the UKR AD network, including Stinger and Starstreak et al, deny the battlefield airspace to RUF assets, if it's able to operate at full potency without worrying about RU long range fires obliterating the ground units providing the air cover (because those long range fires have been HIMARSed into impotency)?

Can proper employment of ground based assets make the job of gaining air superiority over the battlefield significantly easier (and cheaper) than it would be, trying to do it with wings alone? I get the impression that it's been the basis of the Russian approach since the days of the Cold War.

[chris talpas]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

 

About AI replacing programmers: here's a tweet that explains everything

 

Not to take this thread on too far a tangent, but here is a short video giving the current state of the art in machine coding.  Also an interesting channel on AI development in general

 

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Tried to listen interview with this guy:

Mikhail Delyagin
Deputy of the State Duma
State Duma Committee on Economic Policy (Deputy Chairman of the Committee)

Well, I endured 10 minutes. The end game of these guys is very simple - this fall Europe and US will plunge into deep catastrophic crisis. Europe will have deep energy crisis (will be frozen) + waves of immigrants (due to lack of food) will destroy it. In US Republicans are going to win November elections and will impeach Biden and Kamala. So, democrats are going to "explode" US in deep political crisis - no HIMARS for Ukraine [HIMARS got under RU skin]. And RU will suffer mild economic crisis but nothing more. 

Basically, they want to stay in the fight until fall when Europe and US collapse. Sorry, no further details - enough RU madness for today. 

Well, now we know what awaits us.

[Grigb]

Girkin wrote several posts. Nothing really interesting. Short summary:

1. RU gov changes (Rogozin<Borisov<Manturov) changes nothing as all three of them are incompetent
2. Rants about Regnum attack on Transnistria president due to his comments toward RU (he is dissatisfied that they do not get RU passports like UKR citizens)
3. Quotes Ru politician VK post about need to mobilize and grow the army.
4.  Puzzled that RU officials and propagandists are bragging about victory while soldiers and low-level officers are not.

Interesting that in the post I marked as 4 he backpedals from his initial comment after the discussion (internal discussion not shown in TG). It seems his colleagues are too boastful like they think UKR loss is imminent. It makes sense only if RU is planning victory operation.

Here is one of the articles he referenced in his posts.

Quote

The Russian Armed Forces are pulling equipment to the front line in Donbass

LUGANSK, July 16 — RIA Novosti. Russian troops are pulling more and more modern equipment to the front line in the Donbass, RIA Novosti correspondents reported.
In particular, the journalists met the Terminator BMPT moving towards the front line near Seversk.
Earlier on Saturday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu instructed the armed forces to step up actions in all directions in order to deprive the Kiev regime of the opportunity to inflict massive missile and artillery strikes on civilians and civilian infrastructure in the Donbass and other regions.

On other hand, it could be my confirmation bias.

[Eddy]

18 minutes ago, womble said:

How does the advent of HIMARS et al on the battlefield alter the SEAD equation?

According to the RUSI report ( Ukraine at War: Paving the Road From Survival to Victory | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org) ) it doesn't much. HIMARS relies on the the AD defences being spotted by drone, but because of EW the drones can't be used, unless they go on pre-programmed flights and the data is downloaded after the drone has RTB, by which time the AD could well have moved.

They suggest the priority military aid should be anti-EW weapons to unlock drones, which then unlocks HIMARS for attacking AD resources along with CB and other stuff.

 

If you've got the time I'd give the report a read. It's really illuminating.  

[Calamine Waffles]

21 minutes ago, womble said:

How does the advent of HIMARS et al on the battlefield alter the SEAD equation? Can the ultra-responsive UKR artillery ISR net drop pinpoint precision ordnance on the ground-based AD components that are denying the airspace over the battlefield to the UKR airforce? How do the ranges compare?

Can the UKR AD network, including Stinger and Starstreak et al, deny the battlefield airspace to RUF assets, if it's able to operate at full potency without worrying about RU long range fires obliterating the ground units providing the air cover (because those long range fires have been HIMARSed into impotency)?

Can proper employment of ground based assets make the job of gaining air superiority over the battlefield significantly easier (and cheaper) than it would be, trying to do it with wings alone? I get the impression that it's been the basis of the Russian approach since the days of the Cold War.

It's not that simple. Most of these SAMs are mobile, so the kill chain may not be short enough to allow them to consistently hit them. You might be able to get the more static S-300/S-400 systems, but they are much farther back than something like the Buk-M1/2/3 would be. These SAMs are also denying the airspace to Ukrainian drones, so it will be hard for them to use those to find them in the first place.

It is possible, yes, once the Russian artillery has been mitigated/neutralised, but Ukraine doesn't have nearly enough SAMs (especially medium/long range ones) to do that currently.

[akd]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

In particular, the journalists met the Terminator BMPT moving towards the front line near Seversk.

AFAIK, a small group (2x platoons at most) of BMPT was operating with the 90th Tank Division BTGs since they started their attempted encirclement of Severodonetsk / Lysishansk.  For over a month at least.  Nothing new here.

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Eddy said:

According to the RUSI report ( Ukraine at War: Paving the Road From Survival to Victory | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org) ) it doesn't much. HIMARS relies on the the AD defences being spotted by drone, but because of EW the drones can't be used, unless they go on pre-programmed flights and the data is downloaded after the drone has RTB, by which time the AD could well have moved.

They suggest the priority military aid should be anti-EW weapons to unlock drones, which then unlocks HIMARS for attacking AD resources along with CB and other stuff.

 

If you've got the time I'd give the report a read. It's really illuminating.  

I am probably missing something. But it seems to me that more problematic EW has to emit like a huge navigation beacon to do anything. So just triangulate the emissions and keep sending Himars to those coordinates until they are smashed or too frightened to turn on. To repeat, what am I missing?

EDIT: A nice radar homing loitering munition would be nice, and perhaps more efficient, but it doesn't seem necessary 

 

Edited July 16, 2022 by dan/california

[Calamine Waffles]

You need the appropriate receivers and have them located in the right places to triangulate those signals.

[Eddy]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am probably missing something. But it seems to me that more problematic EW has to emit like a huge navigation beacon to do anything. So just triangulate the emissions and keep sending Himars to those coordinates until they are smashed or too frightened to turn on. To repeat, what am I missing?

EDIT: A nice radar homing loitering munition would be nice, and perhaps more efficient, but it doesn't seem necessary

There also this, which I missed this morning when I read it:

"Another challenge faced by Ukrainian troops is that Russian direction finding is highly capable and where it is not possible to suppress UAVs, it is often possible to target the ground control station"

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Eddy said:

According to the RUSI report ( Ukraine at War: Paving the Road From Survival to Victory | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org) ) it doesn't much. HIMARS relies on the the AD defences being spotted by drone, but because of EW the drones can't be used, unless they go on pre-programmed flights and the data is downloaded after the drone has RTB, by which time the AD could well have moved.

They suggest the priority military aid should be anti-EW weapons to unlock drones, which then unlocks HIMARS for attacking AD resources along with CB and other stuff.

 

If you've got the time I'd give the report a read. It's really illuminating.  

The RUSI report is very good; however it does not discuss space-based ISR feeds being pushed to the UA.  One thing I am very confident of, is that the UA knows exactly where the Russians are in high resolution.  The problem they are having is enough deep strike capability to exploit that ISR advantage.

As to SEAD, I am not sure what that looks like in 2022 to be honest.  Against Russia traditional SEAD would likely work to an extent but the combination of MANPADS, ISR, communications and UAS means that control of airspace is likely much more negotiable than before.  One can see and hit IADS larger SAMs and radars; however hitting a bunch of MANPADS that can deny airspace at 15k feet, or small UAS is basically impossible at scale.

The UA have a better chance and HIMARS could be employed to support this; however right now the priority is to cripple Russian logistics in order to stop their advances.  And with only 8 systems (we are at 8, right?) the UA is going to prioritize.  Now if the UA had 40 systems…deep precision strike is acting like cavalry of old, wreaking havoc in the rear.  Except now one cannot send forces back to deal with it, you have to either use your own deep strike/ISR or breakthrough, and Russia really does not have those choices; the trick to game changing weapons is knowing which are and are not, and how they change the game.

[Calamine Waffles]

If you can suppress the bigger SAMs and you have good ISR, enough PGMs, and decent aircraft, you can operate outside of MANPADS ceiling and drop PGMs. But you will also need escort for the strike packages to deal with enemy interceptors.

I don't think there is any MANPADS in Russian service that can deny airspace up to 15k feet. The effectiveness will be drastically lower, especially vs. a fast mover, and they will need early warning as well, which if you suppressed the radars will be difficult.

Edited July 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am probably missing something. But it seems to me that more problematic EW has to emit like a huge navigation beacon to do anything. So just triangulate the emissions and keep sending Himars to those coordinates until they are smashed or too frightened to turn on. To repeat, what am I missing?

EDIT: A nice radar homing loitering munition would be nice, and perhaps more efficient, but it doesn't seem necessary 

 

Key word in that report on this “cheap”.  HIMARS and their ammunition are not cheap and likely very tightly controlled.  Using them on EW is likely too low down on the HVT list right now - it is like that video early on is the UA soldier firing a Javelin at a truck, kind of a waste.  A cheap self-loitering or even ground based EM homing makes a lot more sense right now; that or give the UA 50 more HIMARS with all the ammo.

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

You need the appropriate receivers and have them located in the right places to triangulate those signals.

I am fairly certain those exist, and if they don't they would be much easier to turn out relatively quickly than a new loitering munition. Indeed I would think that the constellation of NATO aircraft of the Polish border, and the black sea track them continuously.

[Calamine Waffles]

Just now, dan/california said:

I am fairly certain those exist, and if they don't they would be much easier to turn out relatively quickly than a new loitering munition. Indeed I would think that the constellation of NATO aircraft of the Polish border, and the black sea track them continuously.

Polish border is too far away, they would be below the horizon of those signals, I think.

[MikeyD]

One thing that F-16 can do, one supposes, that donated Russian-built fighters can't do is fire AGM-88 HARM, high speed anti-radiation missiles. This is something the Ukraine would find useful. HARM is in use in 16 countries already so its not like we're risking super-secret proprietary technology. I don't know if Ukraine fields/fielded the Russian version, the Kh-58.

[Calamine Waffles]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Key word in that report on this “cheap”.  HIMARS and their ammunition are not cheap and likely very tightly controlled.  Using them on EW is likely too low down on the HVT list right now - it is like that video early on is the UA soldier firing a Javelin at a truck, kind of a waste.  A cheap self-loitering or even ground based EM homing makes a lot more sense right now; that or give the UA 50 more HIMARS with all the ammo.

You'd basically need a ground-launched AARGM...and you'd need another stage to give it enough range from a ground launch, like the Kilshon (Israeli ground-launched Shrike)

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Grigb said:

As a result of that discussion Murz wrote another rant. This time is it really angry. The main topic is heinous British bombed German cities at night in WW2 killing a lot of civilians so we have right to indiscriminately strike UKR targets regardless of civilian casualties. 

Not one Murz. Several Russian propagandists in social media started "to push in masses" narratives that victory is impossible without heavy strikes on civilaian infrastructure, big losses among civilians - because this can cause unrest and pressure on Zelenskyi to accept Russian terms for the sake of deaths and destructions stopping. This is first "throw in", next I, think, "heavy artilery" on TV will start to pump this opinion among wide masses of population. Among this message "we have to kill civilians" propagandists push another - "Russia can't loss the war, because prestige of country and army at stake, so we must acieve the victory with any methods and any cost"

So, I think, in nearest time we should be ready to "missile terror". Today, for example, Russians deployed Grads on the territory of nuclear plant in Energodar and shelled Nikopol' city through the Kakhovka reservoir on Dnieper (9 km). 13 houses were damaged, 2 civilians killed, 1 wounded. Also was shelled town Chuhuiv in Kharkiv oblast - 3 killed, in the town Kostiantynivla, Donetsk oblast two ballistic missiles ruined two dozen rural houses, 2 killed. 

Not only propagandists sound this message. Here the audio from the meeting of colonel Oleg Korotkevich, acting commander of 41st CAA with parents of servicemen of 35th MRB  (which lost own BTG during Siverskyi Donets crossing)

I translate some of his sentences:

- Can our president say tomorrow on TV: "Yes, I made a decision to stop special military operation" ? Yes, he can. But what then happens? All that is done, is all in vain? This is first. And all this nationalism, which will remain unfinished, will come here through the year. And it will be here, in Aleysk, Novoisibirsk, Tomsk, Tyumen', Moscow, anywhere... Only just because our state, like a beaten dog will have to leave from there, do you understand? We canno't afford it to ourselves, no matter how hard it is.

Also he told that after heavy losses, 261 servicemen of brigade rejected to fight and they already dismissed, they will not receive own money and they will not get status of combat participators, which allow to have some privilege. Also, Korotkevich blamed paretnts and familiars of servicemen, issuing of information in internet about brigade losses - because of this they can't to form new battalion, because many people, who want to sign a contract, go to other brigade in Yurga (74th MRB)

Edited July 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

22 minutes ago, akd said:

AFAIK, a small group (2x platoons at most) of BMPT was operating with the 90th Tank Division BTGs since they started their attempted encirclement of Severodonetsk / Lysishansk.  For over a month at least.  Nothing new here.

New is that instead of R&R in the rear due to operational pause, Terminators (and other AFV) are moving toward the frontline again. 

[Calamine Waffles]

 

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Not one Murz. Several Russian propagandists in social media started "to push in masses" narratives that victory is impossible without heavy strikes on civilaian infrastructure, big losses among civilians - because this can cause unrest and pressure on Zelenskyi to accept Russian terms for the sake of deaths and destructions stopping. This is first "throw in", next I, think, "heavy artilery" on TV will start to pump this opinion among wide masses of population. Among this message "we have to kill civilians" propagandists push another - "Russia can't loss the war, because prestige of country and army at stake, so we must acieve the victory with any methods and any cost"

So, I think, in nearest time we should be ready to "missile terror". Today, for example, Russians deployed Grads on the territory of nuclear plant in Energodar and shelled Nikopol' city through the Kakhovka reservoir on Dnieper (9 km). 13 houses were damaged, 2 civilians killed, 1 wounded. Also was shelled town Chuhuiv in Kharkiv oblast - 3 killed, in the town Kostiantynivla, Donetsk oblast two ballistic missiles ruined two dozen rural houses, 2 killed.

It will be an excellent way to waste precious cruise missiles...but then again, Russian has virtually zero target-finding capability past the near-FEBA, so what are they going to use them on anyway in Ukraine?

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Key word in that report on this “cheap”.  HIMARS and their ammunition are not cheap and likely very tightly controlled.  Using them on EW is likely too low down on the HVT list right now - it is like that video early on is the UA soldier firing a Javelin at a truck, kind of a waste.  A cheap self-loitering or even ground based EM homing makes a lot more sense right now; that or give the UA 50 more HIMARS with all the ammo.

Wouldn't most of the anti drone EW actually need to be in range of Caesar or PZH 2000 to be useful? Those are surely much cheaper. And we should certainly give the AFU a LOT more HIMARS and the missiles to shoot from them. If someone can put an EW homing drone together, or already has send Ukraine ALL of them and build a huge new factory to build more. What is expensive is this bleeping war going on and on. It is chewing the bleep out of both combatants and the entire world economy. Ukraine needs the support to end it a more or less total victory ASAP.