How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

There are useful/ paid idiots who would like that very much. I'm under impression that since battle of Lysychansk ended, the calls for peace have become noticeably more numerous. Here's another "gem" like this, explaining in detail why West should push Ukraine to make peace, without any proposal how this peace could reasonably look like. Originaly pubilshed in Foreign Policy btw:

https://cis.mit.edu/publications/analysis-opinion/2022/ukraine’s-implausible-theories-victory

 

@Taranis 

On certain points I agree with him, like that this war is one of attrition and no one will be able to gain a decisive victory. The rest is BS, especially the part about negotiation, as if we're dealing with a trustworthy, honorable opponent. Against such thugs one can only fight, until one can fight no more. As long as the Ukrainians are prepared to fight on, the West shouldn't even mention negotiations. "Peace" means defeat and the certainty the Russians will be back in a couple of years for another unjustified war of terror and aggression. 

This indeed isn't just a war. It's a life changer like ww2 was and nothing will ever be the same, although that message still has to reach the dumb masses of the West.

Edited July 13, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It is ridiculous that anyone would prioritize a PC wargame over the events we are seeing unfold on the ground in Ukraine.  These events have global impact - we have seen this already, and it is just the start, and merit staying informed about as much as possible.  Why?  Because if you live in a democracy in the western world, at some point you will be asked to use the phenomenal power of your vote to influence this war and it is your responsibility to understand what that means...or at least it should be.

The lack of sacrifice I am referring to is on anyone who is not willing to put aside hobbies and free time and actually devote that time to staying informed about this war as much as they are able.  Everyone on this thread is willing to put that work in, and yes, sacrifice time, in many cases money, and it at least one case volunteer for military service. These are very small sacrifices compared to what the average Ukrainian is going through (Haiduk's dedication and ability to keep us informed while his country is being torn apart is frankly humbling) but everyone here is at least willing to do that much, along with personal donations etc.  

Based on your posts, you are not even willing to sacrifice a distraction from a wargaming hobby.  Now, I do not know your personal circumstances - perhaps you are a humanitarian aid worker who has to deal with the cost of this war on a daily basis, and just want to come here to get away from it all.  I get that, but for the rest of us here is where we go to put the time in and do our small part.

I appreciate the shout out for CMCW, we had a lot of fun doing that title and have future plans - trust me.  However, right now I would prefer you respect what is going on here as something more than a bunch of "war-porn voyeurism"; it is a communities' efforts to understand what is going on and support each other while it happens.  We did the same after 9/11, and Iraq '03, and Afghanistan, and the Crimea...and now the Russo Ukrainian War.  CM will be there after this war is over, it has survived a lot in the last 20 years, but for now this is bigger than my hobby.  If it is not based on your personal circumstances, hey we get that, however, there is no need to come here and make trouble for those that are just trying to sort through the mountains of information (good, bad, and ugly) and make sense of it.

Well said.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Speaking as a historian before I was a game designer, and a historian since, I can safely say this is the most important war since WW2.

I can't force people to talk about our games either.  So it is what it is.  I don't really know what you expect me to do about it.  Shut down this thread, ban people from talking about the war, and then hope that everybody goes back to talking about the games instead of what they obviously really want to talk about?

Steve

Grey Fox, I am still playing at my usual slow pace.  This thread does take up a lot of space on the forum.  but add up all the pages on non-game specific discussion of WW2 and see if it's not 1000+ pages.  And that war was over 77 years ago.  This war is live so the discussion is much more condensed.  This community has a lot to offer anyone interested in the war.  And there will one day be a module covering this war -- I bet it's already getting some attention, at least in planning stages.  It's not slowing down releases of new content; BFC was always slower than we all wanted, this is status quo slowness.

Keep playing.  Between work, vacation, computer burnout and sore arm tendons (from work) I am still playing.  Last session before a week vacation I stupidly lost 2 bradleys and half a squad -- so I am definitely right where I've always been w CM.  

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

On certain points I agree with him, like that this war is one of attrition and no one will be able to gain a decisive victory. The rest is BS, especially the part about negotiation, as if we're dealing with a trustworthy, honorable opponent. Against such thugs one can only fight, until one can fight no more. As long as the Ukrainians are prepared to fight on, the West shouldn't even mention negotiations. "Peace" means defeat and the certainty the Russians will be back in a couple of years for another unjustified war of terror and aggression. 

This indeed isn't just a war. It's a life changer like ww2 was and nothing will ever be the same, although that message still has to reach the dumb masses of the West.

And support for Ukraine must be redoubled, and redoubled again. If the Germans just can't get their heads out of the completely bleeped place they have stuck them the U.S. needs to start pulling Abrams and other vehicles out of storage in the desert and shipping those to National guard units. Because the Guards units gear needs to be on the way to Ukraine SOONEST.

[poesel]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Is the oil/ fuel situation an actual issue either in France or Germany? It's not easy to diversify from pipeline gas, that's understandable, but I thought oil coming via ship is less of a problem?

First of all: when I speak of gas, I mean the gas that is gaseous. Not the gas that is fluid and usually put in cars. Whoever named that...

Fuel is not a problem in Germany, you can buy oil from many places. But there is one refinery (of two) in former East-Germany that is literally connected to a Russian pipeline ('Drushba' IIRC). This refinery has only one other supply line, which is too small to run the refinery at capacity. This creates a logistical problem but nothing else.

Gas (natural gas) is a completely different thing. 50% of households use it for heating, and it is used in the industry all over the place. There is not enough non-Russian pipeline capacity available, and we don't have our own LNG terminals. Even if we had, there is not enough LNG on the market. We buy what's available, but that's not exactly cheap. Even worse, we take away the LNG from other countries who need it, too.
Hence, the understandable criticism of the global south that they have to suffer because of a war and sanctions they have nothing to do with.

Ironically, we have a new government since late last year where one parties main goal is to get rid of fossil fuels. But you cannot reverse in half a year what has been the status quo for decades.

[Huba]

US M113 are finally in Ukraine - took a while, hopefully even more will follow (Truha, I know, but they have this nice shot with setting sun  ). 

Also, Iran denies any drone deals with Russia - its only word of course, but one can imagine that the last thing they need is US backing Israel military action against their nuclear program, when they are on the verge of success (this was reported by multiple media btw). 

 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, poesel said:

First of all: when I speak of gas, I mean the gas that is gaseous. Not the gas that is fluid and usually put in cars. Whoever named that...

Fuel is not a problem in Germany, you can buy oil from many places. But there is one refinery (of two) in former East-Germany that is literally connected to a Russian pipeline ('Drushba' IIRC). This refinery has only one other supply line, which is too small to run the refinery at capacity. This creates a logistical problem but nothing else.

Gas (natural gas) is a completely different thing. 50% of households use it for heating, and it is used in the industry all over the place. There is not enough non-Russian pipeline capacity available, and we don't have our own LNG terminals. Even if we had, there is not enough LNG on the market. We buy what's available, but that's not exactly cheap. Even worse, we take away the LNG from other countries who need it, too.
Hence, the understandable criticism of the global south that they have to suffer because of a war and sanctions they have nothing to do with.

Ironically, we have a new government since late last year where one parties main goal is to get rid of fossil fuels. But you cannot reverse in half a year what has been the status quo for decades.

OK, thanks, that's in line with what I know of the situation. Often when talking about energy, there's some confusion about what it is about precisely.

I looked up the numbers regarding gas a while ago, and it turns out that less than 50% of German gas comes from RU, rest is NL or NO. In 2021, buildings (residential, services, and agriculture) accounted for 44% of the gas consumption; this is trailed by the industrial (30%) and power sectors (21%)(link). What it means that with some help you should have just enough for heating and power generation ( buying electricity from French nukes + restarting coal plants helps), but the industry is really effed. I read recently that many of the industries cannot do with limited supplies at all, cause some processes are continuous (like smelting) and cannot be scaled down - it's either all the way or full stop. And there's A LOT of industries dependent on the chemical industry (car makers included), that cannot easily source the materials elsewhere. That sucks and there's hardly anything that can be done to avoid a temporary plunge I'm afraid  

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Grey_Fox said:

I think you'll find that almost all activity on this forum is contained in this thread. The forum isn't about CM any more, it's about the Russo-Ukraine war.

Apparently what people feel like doing, do you want to force them to do something you feel like instead?

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Butschi said:

For fuel, availability doesn't seem to be a problem but prices have skyrocketed - though still lower than in, e.g. the Netherlands.

That is because our government likes taxes

[Aragorn2002]

58 minutes ago, dan/california said:

And support for Ukraine must be redoubled, and redoubled again. If the Germans just can't get their heads out of the completely bleeped place they have stuck them the U.S. needs to start pulling Abrams and other vehicles out of storage in the desert and shipping those to National guard units. Because the Guards units gear needs to be on the way to Ukraine SOONEST.

I agree. But let's be honest now. Would the US support be the same when it would have the consequence of seriously damaging the US economy?

[danfrodo]

13 minutes ago, Huba said:

OK, thanks, that's in line with what I know of the situation. Often when talking about energy, there's some confusion about what it is about precisely.

I looked up the numbers regarding gas a while ago, and it turns out that less than 50% of German gas comes from RU, rest is NL or NO. In 2021, buildings (residential, services, and agriculture) accounted for 44% of the gas consumption; this is trailed by the industrial (30%) and power sectors (21%)(link). What it means that with some help you should have just enough for heating and power generation ( buying electricity from French nukes + restarting coal plants helps), but the industry is really effed. I read recently that many of the industries cannot do with limited supplies at all, cause some processes are continuous (like smelting) and cannot be scaled down - it's either all the way or full stop. And there's A LOT of industries dependent on the chemical industry (car makers included), that cannot easily source the materials elsewhere. That sucks and there's hardly anything that can be done to avoid a temporary plunge I'm afraid  

Whatever happens w the war, it's clear that Europe must be free of dependence on RU resources.  That will take time & pain and hopefully voters won't be so stupid as to think there's some magic, simple answer to this complex problem and vote in clowns.  This is a pivot point that is a terrible challenge but also an opportunity.  Some sectors will continue to need fossil fuels, some things can be transitioned away over time to other resources, but many can't.  Fools (yeah, that's me included) who hoped that mutually dependent trade would mostly tame Putin have learned our lesson.  

And while I am reviling dependence on evil Putin, I suppose there's those nasty Saudis that deserve mention.  Weaning off fossil fuels is not just for lefty tree huggers -- it's a military strategic imperative.  We'll need fossil fuel still, but we certainly don't need to use it for nearly as much as we do now.  

[danfrodo]

back on the main subject:  any news from Kherson front today???

[Grigb]

Reportedly RU is sending reinforcement to Kherson.

Translation of the post is below but I do not trust much this channel (it has ТРУХА vibe).

Quote

An endless column of the Russian army is moving through Melitopol to Kherson. The situation in Melitopol is heating up every day. Explosions and automatic [rifle] bursts are heard in the city. The occupants have noticeably intensified [their actions] and are transferring equipment in the Zaporozhye and Kherson directions, strengthening their positions.

In order not to endanger the civilian population, the Prime Minister - Minister for the Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories Irina Vereshchuk called on the residents of Melitopol to evacuate by all available means. She urged citizens to travel in any direction, even through the occupied Crimea. Since today, the invaders have blocked the passage through Vasilevka in order to hide behind Melitopol residents [and use them] as a living shield. Many preferred to go to Kirillovka at least for a while.

At the same time, in Melitopol, on Ivan Alekseev Street, a long column of enemy equipment is being observed today, which is moving towards Kherson.

 

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I agree. But let's be honest now. Would the US support be the same when it would have the consequence of seriously damaging the US economy?

The Germans are really, MASSIVELY under rating the risks of losing here. They also seem to have zero imagination for the upside of winning.

 

[Grigb]

Nice surprise

 

[UPDATE] it seems M777s got a lovely nickname - Manun'ka

Edited July 13, 2022 by Grigb

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Whatever happens w the war, it's clear that Europe must be free of dependence on RU resources.  That will take time & pain and hopefully voters won't be so stupid as to think there's some magic, simple answer to this complex problem and vote in clowns.  This is a pivot point that is a terrible challenge but also an opportunity.  Some sectors will continue to need fossil fuels, some things can be transitioned away over time to other resources, but many can't.  Fools (yeah, that's me included) who hoped that mutually dependent trade would mostly tame Putin have learned our lesson.  

And while I am reviling dependence on evil Putin, I suppose there's those nasty Saudis that deserve mention.  Weaning off fossil fuels is not just for lefty tree huggers -- it's a military strategic imperative.  We'll need fossil fuel still, but we certainly don't need to use it for nearly as much as we do now.  

Hear hear, that's what has to be done. Plus side is that this by no mean is a permanent situation. And after UA war we might have access to their considerable deposits (4 years from now maybe?). Apart from transport and chemical industry, there really isn't any need to use fossil fuels anymore. and even that can be reduced with time.

In other news, 20+ minutes long internviewe with German chief of artilery school, talking about training UA on PzH2000 (auto translation needed):

 

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Just launch a new module and watch this thread die.

LOL! Yeah, we desperately need some BAOR troops for CMCW.

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

Reportedly RU is sending reinforcement to Kherson.

Translation of the post is below but I do not trust much this channel (it has ТРУХА vibe).

 

gunfire & explosions heard in Melitopol??  what is that?  Partisan activity?  That's a long way from the front.  

So RU sounds like it's going to send more into Kherson.  I guess Putin doesn't want the bad PR from losing the north side of the river.  But can he really hold it?  If UKR drops the bridge all the troops & gear there is trapped, what a coup for UKR -- talk about bad PR!  Seems like the kind of decision Putin would make, classic dictator running the war.  I'd leave that potentially untenable region in order to hold the rest of the territory I've stolen.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

Reportedly RU is sending reinforcement to Kherson.

Translation of the post is below but I do not trust much this channel (it has ТРУХА vibe).

 

A saw a video that was claimed to be that column, or part of it. It was all supply trucks. Which would make some sense if ammo stores on the west side of the Dinipro have been completely wrecked by the Ukrainians. I would NOT want to be a driver in that convoy. 

No one can claim the Russians are rational at this point. But it might not make sense to send more actual forces if they can't move enough supplies to support them. But maybe the Russians really are too stupid to realize those bridges are vulnerable.

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

gunfire & explosions heard in Melitopol??  what is that?  Partisan activity?  That's a long way from the front.  

Well, that's why I said be careful with the text - it has Tryxa vibe. I translated it in case somebody wanted to know what the text under video says.

[Harmon Rabb]

I was hesitant to even knowledge some of these Twitter clowns that believe this idiotic Russian propaganda. I'm looking forward to Russia showing off all these recently purchased CEASAR and HIMARS artillery that they probably managed to buy for a Ruble a piece. 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Grigb]

Girkin wrote two posts with black humor jokes. They are so-so. If you want me to translate them, please tell me. Overall, it looks like Girkin is at the stage of acceptance and joking about it.

[Huba]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

A saw a video that was claimed to be that column, or part of it. It was all supply trucks. Which would make some sense if ammo stores on the west side of the Dinipro have been completely wrecked by the Ukrainians. I would NOT want to be a driver in that convoy. 

No one can claim the Russians are rational at this point. But it might not make sense to send more actual forces if they can't move enough supplies to support them. But maybe the Russians really are too stupid to realize those bridges are vulnerable.

Yeah the decision to hold to right-bank Dnipro has to be political. Retreating, apart from raising the stench of defeat and weakness, would also mean admitting that any push to Odessa and Transnistria is never going to happen, unless the whole Ukraine is defeated. Boss might not want to hear that...

If RU keeps reinforcing it, it might as well turn into another meatgrinder, but this time UA holds all the cards and Russians have to pour troops into another Chornobaiwka. No way they can deploy their artillery like in Severodonetsk, geography alone prevents it from happening. Actually, not re-taking Kherson yet, before UA is able to push elsewhere (Zaporozhiya?) might well play into UA advantage at this point, bleeding RU again in unfavorable conditions. And UA can stop any moment they want by just dropping the bridges. And they can probably track anything that crosses the bridges in Kherson, both with UAVs, and help of the locals. Looks like a nasty trap to me...

 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Huba

[G.I. Joe]

Without wishing to carry on the derailment too much further, I will add this. I have made only two posts elsewhere on this forum since this thread began, but that is two more than I had made in the previous two years that I have had an account here. I have little enough time to play CM that posting about it had never gained priority, but once this war is over I expect I will stick around this board. The community is gaining participants as a result of this discussion.

[Lethaface]

21 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Germans are really, MASSIVELY under rating the risks of losing here. They also seem to have zero imagination for the upside of winning.

 

I think you are reading to much VISEGRAD stuff and harshly condemn Germany, mainly because of imagination.

Geopolitics isn't as easy as sending a couple of hundred of Leo2A4s, which is also not as easy as you think. At least I think so