How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Grigb said:

It is crumbling slowly

Hard landing...

Looks to have come pretty close to smashing into a dense residential area.  Here's a newly uploaded video:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vjmbyo/the_russian_il76_military_plane_crash_in_ryazan/

Steve

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

One thing that struck me about the manual is it's pretty simple stuff, but someone trying to do this from scratch would definitely benefit from it. 

As far as i understood it is first iteration. They are going to extend it later. But even this version helps them to spread the experience. They are trying to spread the program to the whole RU Army.  

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like some footage of irregular warfare, though not sure if they are partisans or not:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vjpgll/format_18_we_conducted_reconnaissance_burned_two/

Steve

[dan/california]

Google maps and Cyrillic alphabet are fighting me, but I think the above implies the Ukr are making real progress towards the dam above Kherson.  

[FancyCat]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Google maps and Cyrillic alphabet are fighting me, but I think the above implies the Ukr are making real progress towards the dam above Kherson.  

Sadly they are not.

He's referring to this village, near Kryvyi Rih.

 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Back on subject:  What is the deal w the contractor nowadays?  I've seen reports of 3 months contracts, etc, and soldiers w contracts expiring.  If RU simply not letting them leave when their contracts are done?  

It is not very clear, but RU cannot legally prevent them from leaving. Even drafted soldiers can desert and most likely will not be legally punished. So, probably we have the following situation:

A lot of them indeed either refuse to go to battle or simply leave. Girking said in some units it up to 60%. But it did not cause collapse, or any catastrophic effects outsiders expected.  Why? Because Ru army is not a western army.

Let's say your unit has 60% of refusniks. In NATO army it is catastrophe, in RU Army it is just another day at frontline. You still have 40%. You still have bunch of officers and support cadre. You still can do some tasks like lying to your superiors that you are attacking. And your superiors will lie to his superiors that offensive operation is continuing. And your unit will be marked as combat capable on the map somewhere. And everybody will act as if nothing happened confusing western analyst who thought RU Army is going to collapse.

[Battlefront.com]

We all know that a good military operation requires things like balance, redundancy, and sustainability.  People thinking "ah, Russia has figured out how to beat Ukraine" seem to forget that heavily leaning on a single type of equipment (artillery) in a single way (massed fire) is neither balanced, redundant, or sustainable.  It won't take much for it to suddenly cease being effective.  And then what will Russia do?  We might soon find out... more evidence that Russia is running out of ammo:

 

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We all know that a good military operation requires things like balance, redundancy, and sustainability.  People thinking "ah, Russia has figured out how to beat Ukraine" seem to forget that heavily leaning on a single type of equipment (artillery) in a single way (massed fire) is neither balanced, redundant, or sustainable.  It won't take much for it to suddenly cease being effective.  And then what will Russia do?  We might soon find out... more evidence that Russia is running out of ammo:

 

Well that would seem to reduce the odds of Belarus opening another front any time soon. 

 

Edit: I bet the storage conditions in Belarus were great, too.

Edited June 24, 2022 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

Another one from Schlottman:

OK, we all know better than to believe Russian numbers.  They are always fanciful and no reason to think this one is any different.  To think that Ukraine had as many men in that small a space as they did in Mariupol is just silly.  Especially if the RUMINT that Ukraine withdrew is even partially accurate.

To me this feels like Debaltseve again.  The pro-Russians were so excited about the "kettle/cauldron" they fought so hard to achieve.  IIRC they were talking about having surrounded several thousand Ukrainians, yet in the end they came away with about 120 (including those taken prisoner during the battle itself) and a piece of ground soaked mostly in their own blood.

Still, it would appear that all Ukrainians didn't get out.  We have Haiduk's post showing that roughly 50 were captured to back that up.

Steve

[Probus]

3 hours ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

This is the first time I've seen a thread with over 1 million views.  Amazing conversation, amazing and insightful contributors.  Must be the best non-professional source on the war online.

I just wish it was for a happier subject Bill. 

[Artkin]

11 hours ago, Huba said:

MLRS (?) launch gone wrong:

Holy crap I've never seen anything like that ever before. The MRLS' rocket came back toward it and destroyed it? That is absolutely insane. Was it a guided munition or just coincidence the rocket hit the launcher?

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Holy crap I've never seen anything like that ever before. The MRLS' rocket came back toward it and destroyed it? That is absolutely insane. Was it a guided munition or just coincidence the rocket hit the launcher?

Pretty sure it was a SAM system, and it only almost hit the launcher. Though I also suspect the crew used their contracts to wipe their pants and just started walking home.

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Holy crap I've never seen anything like that ever before. The MRLS' rocket came back toward it and destroyed it? That is absolutely insane. Was it a guided munition or just coincidence the rocket hit the launcher?

This was AA-missile, look my post above.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Artkin said:

Holy crap I've never seen anything like that ever before. The MRLS' rocket came back toward it and destroyed it? That is absolutely insane. Was it a guided munition or just coincidence the rocket hit the launcher?

 A very respected guy from other forum claims it is a Buk - I'm inclined to believe him, it also explains the manouverability of the missile. What is strange is how many other launches there were. Maybe they were countering a Tochka salvo?

[Battlefront.com]

For sure it was some form of AA missile.  Regardless, the snickering about Russian superior technology is just as valid

Eons ago I used to joke that Soviet Quality Control was neither.  Russia is the heir of all things Soviet, so it applies just as much now as it did back then.

Another joke is that the last missile was made on a Friday.

Steve

[Taranis]

T-64BV

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure it was some form of AA missile.  Regardless, the snickering about Russian superior technology is just as valid

Eons ago I used to joke that Soviet Quality Control was neither.  Russia is the heir of all things Soviet, so it applies just as much now as it did back then.

Another joke is that the last missile was made on a Friday.

Steve

The ones made in a hungover  haze on Monday morning would worry me even more.

[Haiduk]

So, Ukrainans instead to gather 5 millions $ for three Bayraktars for a week, gathered 6 millions $ for three days, so Serhiy Prytula fund will order four TB2 Bayraktars

But Back-and-Alive fund suddenly strikes back!  In this day they claimed about finishing a gathering of 8,5 millions $ for ordering of 10 UKR PD-2 UAV complexes of UKRSPETSSYSTEMS company (one PD-2 complex is control station and two UAVs), so 20 PD-2 UAVs soon will target Russian logistic hubs and artillery positions in deep rear for our PzH2000 or HIMARS. Reportedly UAvs already ordered and probably partially produced.

PD-2 was developed in 2020 as deep modernization of PD-1, which already use in UKR units (mostly in recon battalions). PD-2 can fly up to 220 km under operator control or up to 1000 km on preset route or 10 hours on 5000 m of ceiling. It equipped with thermal camera with 5x zoom and day camera 30x zoom, both are gyrostabilzed. Except optic equipment it can carry up to 3 kg of bombs load (2-3 RKG-1600, for example), so can be used as light bomber, but with more long range, than octocopter R18, using for strikes.

 

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by Haiduk

[Artkin]

Thanks! @dan/california@Huba@Haiduk I thought it was something guided, because it looked like it locked onto the launcher. MRLS being GPS or laser guided wouldn't produce that type of failure.

@Huba I thought it hit the launcher because there were some minor secondaries. The Buk only carries 4 missiles and 4 were fired. I think it's reasonable to assume it got hit. Thoughts? In my opinion it makes sense to drop 4 missiles on trying to get a plane kill, Russia has plenty of launchers and they only have a couple small jobs. Especially the longer range equipment like the buk. I didn't know that it could intercept tochka's but that would definitely be one of my primary focuses right now as the Russian AD commander.

The Buk is only 40 something years old, so that is pretty wild. Maybe it had something to do with a heavy EW environment? I don't think I would consider the Buk system to be the forefront of Russian AA tech, and maybe they didn't anticipate how it would perform in 2022.

@Haiduk I don't see what post you are talking about, I apologize.

[Letter from Prague]

Nice to see (formerly) our helicopters doing some work!

(Unless I'm misunderstanding, my Polish isn't exactly good.)

[Artkin]

When will we see drones dedicated to SEAD? Why send a pilot when you can have a drone do it. The Bayraktar's are nice and all but how many have been shot down? Their efficiency seemed great early in the war, but now things have seemingly slowed down.

I could be totally wrong. Maybe this is what that 600 kamakazi drone was designed for.

[Letter from Prague]

2 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Thanks! @dan/california@Huba@Haiduk I thought it was something guided, because it looked like it locked onto the launcher. MRLS being GPS or laser guided wouldn't produce that type of failure.

@Huba I thought it hit the launcher because there were some minor secondaries. The Buk only carries 4 missiles and 4 were fired. I think it's reasonable to assume it got hit. Thoughts? In my opinion it makes sense to drop 4 missiles on trying to get a plane kill, Russia has plenty of launchers and they only have a couple small jobs. Especially the longer range equipment like the buk. I didn't know that it could intercept tochka's but that would definitely be one of my primary focuses right now as the Russian AD commander.

I think that's the fuel, not secondaries. It looks like it went towards the camera and hit a field, not the launcher.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Artkin said:

When will we see drones dedicated to SEAD? Why send a pilot when you can have a drone do it. The Bayraktar's are nice and all but how many have been shot down? Their efficiency seemed great early in the war, but now things have seemingly slowed down.

I could be totally wrong. Maybe this is what that 600 kamakazi drone was designed for.

Well some combination of SOMETHING just pretty much eradicated the Russian forces on Snake Island, which was basically a big nest of air defense systems. So it is entirely possible that not everything Ukraine has has been disclosed.

[dan/california]

Second video makes the trajectory clearer.

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Artkin said:

When will we see drones dedicated to SEAD?

When they could fly more than 20 km with ammunition. R18 range is only 4 km. Bayraktars can be shot with Pantsyr or Osa, so it has less opportunity to break through echeloned AD, when Pantsyrs guard S-300 around.

Polish Warmate loitering munitins has 10 km of range, but I don't see videos of its succesfull usage, and at least three were shot down with small-arms, because its ceiling is just 500 m.

Edited June 24, 2022 by Haiduk