How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

48 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Don't hate me for saying this, but it is time for you to run for parliament. They need more smart people in that room who know what they are talking about.

Thanks (I think),however, I am likely about as close to the political level as I am going to get.  I basically sit behind one of the guys “in the room”.  Any further though is in the opposite direction I want to go - which is into a quiet retirement making pc war games.  But events don’t always give us what we want… 

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Just as people had begun to doubt the ~30,000 dead number we're given a new number ~37,600. The last Ukraine claim of an intercepted Russia death count that I can recall (after Russia had retreat from Kiev) was 26,000.

 

If Combat Mission has taught me anything, it is that bad commanders can get their troops killed in unbelievable numbers. Steve has always mentioned that no real world commander would do many of the truly suicidal things that the AI, or bad players attempt in CM. Except the Russian commander are TERRIBLE, and they DO treat their soldiers like bad little pixeltruppen, and so...

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

One lesson that you didn't mention here, and which I think is pretty clear at this point, is that well developed and managed IADS beats air force in a peer/ near- peer situation, perhaps second such example after Yom Kippur war. 

This stopped being discussed much, as everybody is interested in artillery duels, but UA ability to almost completely deny RU access to it's airspace is perhaps the most important UA success thus far. 

One of several new games Battlefront needs to get going on, if there is enough data to base it off off. And yes, all Ukr. success is dependent on this.

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Captured Russian or LPR soldiers in Luhansk oblast

That's 11 Russians by my count, with almost all of them lightly wounded.  That's the better part of a platoon sized force that probably found itself in a single bad spot at a single time.  Whether they got hit by mortars or small arms fire.

Steve

[Huba]

Just now, dan/california said:

One of several new games Battlefront needs to get going on, if there is enough data to base it off off. And yes, all Ukr. success is dependent on this.

But as you mentioned it your previous post, it seems that AD is not enough to enable decisive offensive maneuvers against enemy with superior airforce, which again proves true lessons from 1973.

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

5. Ukr still has not solved for Russian air attack when they attempt large scale offensive operations. Whatever exact combination of S300s,  manpads, and ? that is keeping Russian aircraft from overflying Ukr. territory just doesn't seem to work when the Ukrainians try a mechanized advance. So most of their offensive operations have to move at the tempo of marching light infantry. 

This is another good one; what in the sweet name of Billy Bishop is going on with AirPower in this war?  We have discussed at length the realities of unmanned systems, which are making air superiority at low levels simply impossible.  MANPADS and AD seem to be making any air superiority at medium altitudes also nearly impossible.  We have been holding out for SEAD but that is not a cheap or easy capability, that does not work against MANPADS that can hit at 20k feet nor UAVs.  Like heavy mech I also suspect that air cannot deliver on surprise and are being picked up well out from the areas they want to effect. 

I keep wondering if this is not some weird air asymmetry situation we have not accounted for because superiority, let alone supremacy seem like a fond dream of a gentler time.  I am not sure what to make of traditional AirPower, and it is a matter of time until someone figures out how to gun tape a Stinger to UAV.  A swarm of short-range MANPADS on UAS, sounds like a freakin 21st century nightmare.  We are definitely entering into an age of denial and firepower, which may mean the Defensive may be shifting towards primacy…or until a week or two from now when someone pulls off operational offensive and we all wonder “what the hell just happened”…again.

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Curious. That is also with Czech former Communist military? I attanded several meetings of veterans of Polish People Army in the past-some of them were forcefully dragged into operation Danube- and almost all despised Soviets to the point of swearing. No doubt they would rather shoot Soviets in the back whenever they could than attack anybody in real war.

After the Cold War ended there was some confirmation of mid 1980s assessments that if the Soviet Union tried to launch a war against NATO that there was serious doubt if the Warsaw Pact countries would all go along with it.  IIRC the one they thought might not even try to fight was Poland, whereas East Germany and Czechoslovakia might put up some fight and then quickly withdraw.  After the curtain came down it was clear that *NONE* of the Warsaw Pact countries were in any state to fight a high intensity conflict.  So whether it was local commanders figuring out that they were out matched or it was a hatred of the Soviets or a combo, I don't know, however in the context of a shooting war they reasons for defections wouldn't be relevant.  Only the defections would be.

Steve

[Grigb]

Interesting detail of 1 phase fighting.

Quote

I talked here with [RU] specialists in automated control systems-automated control systems. They are responsible for the operation of computers, servers and surveillance systems. Interesting details of the first days of SVO [RU euphemism for the war] have come to light.

In Ukraine, there is/was a network of the "Smart City" type. Video cameras on streets, roads, communication towers, billboards, poles and even road signs were used for fighting.

That is, when they noticed a military column, they calculated its speed of movement and used it for aiming. And they had success.

[EDIT] Civilian surveillance systems is something that for sure needs to be taken in to account when fighting in the cities.

Edited June 19, 2022 by Grigb

[billbindc]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

After the Cold War ended there was some confirmation of mid 1980s assessments that if the Soviet Union tried to launch a war against NATO that there was serious doubt if the Warsaw Pact countries would all go along with it.  IIRC the one they thought might not even try to fight was Poland, whereas East Germany and Czechoslovakia might put up some fight and then quickly withdraw.  After the curtain came down it was clear that *NONE* of the Warsaw Pact countries were in any state to fight a high intensity conflict.  So whether it was local commanders figuring out that they were out matched or it was a hatred of the Soviets or a combo, I don't know, however in the context of a shooting war they reasons for defections wouldn't be relevant.  Only the defections would be.

Steve

I remember from that era hearing that one real problem for any contemplated Russian invasion of Western Europe was that they needed to be and couldn't be sure of which side the Poles would take if the balloon really went up. And this was *before* they realized that significant elements of the UB (Polish Ministry of Public Security) were already actively cooperating with Western intelligence agencies.

[Cederic]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 I am not sure what to make of traditional AirPower, and it is a matter of time until someone figures out how to gun tape a Stinger to UAV.  A swarm of short-range MANPADS on UAS, sounds like a freakin 21st century nightmare.

Sounds hellishly expensive. Sidewinder missiles at three for a million make sense against a $400m manned aircraft but cost as much as the drone you're shooting down. Drop to options a third of the price, even Starstreak at $100k/missile still gets painful fast, because you can flood the battlefield with cheap disposable attack drones.

Drop to another third of the price, around a tenth of a Sidewinder, and strap on several stingers. $38k a shot is almost affordable. But your opponent has those too, the skies'll be raining shrapnel and UAVs for the first few hours of a shooting war.

At which point air attacks become as simple as they are now. CAS looks like it's now a drone game, but circle around the lines, go deep, take out ammunition dumps, fuel stores, HQs, rail yards, oil refineries.. air power has range and precision, and those just aren't going out of fashion.

Even now Ukraine has too many miles of front to defend. Quite why Russia can't or haven't found the gaps in air defences at the borders and front lines and used those as channels to hit strategic targets is confusing.

I think a NATO combined air assault on armed forces equipped/fighting as the two countries in Ukraine are would still succeed, and without supplies the artillery is just a heavy trailer.

[Haiduk]

It's claimed this is a photo of 24th Feb before attack on Hostomel

 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I'd want corroboration before taking this one to the bank, but still...

This is obvious fake and "Victorious news". Maybe source of theese numbers is Gerashchenko, known sh...t-newsmaker.  9457 killed PMC? With their total number in Ukraine about 8000-9000 according to Russian information? Seriously? Even official number sometime looks overestimated, especially in aviation losses. But this is just "moral booster for housewives"

Edited June 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[panzermartin]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's claimed this is a photo of 24th Feb before attack on Hostomel

 

I still can't understand how they sent all these well trained units practically unsupported and straight into the UKR artillery range in Hostomel. 

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I still can't understand how they sent all these well trained units practically unsupported and straight into the UKR artillery range in Hostomel. 

Their mech.units were delayed on the border, in Chornobyl and Ivankiv, until reached Hostomel. Russians didn't expect there to be serious resistance. Despite our troops had only light screens on the border of 72nd mech.brigade, border guards and small-numbered National Guard battalion of Chernobyl nuclear plant security, but they could foil Russian plans and synchronization.

Edited June 19, 2022 by Haiduk

[Suleyman]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

The analysis of this war is greatly complicated by the fact that neither side has been able to assemble what NATO considers a full spectrum of capabilities. In the Donbas this has resulted in a weird asymmetric near stalemate with massive attrition on both sides.

1. If the initial Russian failure proved anything it is that modern tech/missiles have increased the cost of protecting supply lines by an order of magnitude, maybe more than one. This factor by itself may make an offensive war like the U.S. conducted in Iraq impossible. This is a LARGE strategic shift.

3. The Israelis have been acutely aware of this lack of strategic depth for forever. They have a stated policy that if an army from outside Syria crossed into Syria with even possible intentions of attacking Israel, that the Israeli air force would commence attacks the minute it crossed the Syrian/IRAQI border. I am quite sure they would feel even more strongly about it if the tanks were Iranian.

4. A lot of the early Russian success on the Southern front was due to the FSBs coop/subversion planning working there. There were SEVERAL key betrayals in and around Kherson in particular. I expect the Ukrainians to hunt those people for FOREVER.

5. Ukr still has not solved for Russian air attack when they attempt large scale offensive operations. Whatever exact combination of S300s,  manpads, and ? that is keeping Russian aircraft from overflying Ukr. territory just doesn't seem to work when the Ukrainians try a mechanized advance. So most of their offensive operations have to move at the tempo of marching light infantry. 

I'm sure our forces would be taking heavy (for our standards) losses too just minus the incompetent losses that the Russians took, which makes up a big portion of losses. The Ukrainian meme where the guy says "we are so lucky they are stupid" comes to my mind. lol.. but I think that had to due with inexperience more so than stupidity actually maybe a little bit of both. The Ukrainians have smart leadership all across the board, where as the Russians have to learn on the job. 

As for the Israelis, what they say on theory sounds good, considering as of lately they just occupy people that don't even have an active insurgency going around, or the occasional bombing of the Syrian government forces. It's desert and open terrain for the most part in Syria and Iraq it's way easier to detect and engage forces with artillery and aviation there. I also don't believe the Iranians have the ability to invade Israel. I get the idea though, engage them before they can be a threat. Not really applicable to the style of fighting the Russians and Ukrainians got going on. The Russians just blitzed through Northern Eastern and Southern Ukraine, but didn't really prepare for heavy attrition.

The Ukrainians deny Russians air superiority not because of an integral air defense but because they use passive style, a BUK or S-300V system hiding and waiting can do some major damage to Russian aircraft who is unsuspecting. The Russians cannot afford to lose their top tier aircraft let alone CAS to the defenses of the Ukrainians. I agree that this is a major success on the Ukrainian side, if it wasn't like this it would be hell for Ukrainian defenders, the Russians got a lot of dumb bombs. If they could have SU-25s and SU-24s just using their CCIP to drop bombs from mid range I'd have to assume they would be having way more success in advancing.

 

 

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Sounds hellishly expensive. Sidewinder missiles at three for a million make sense against a $400m manned aircraft but cost as much as the drone you're shooting down. Drop to options a third of the price, even Starstreak at $100k/missile still gets painful fast, because you can flood the battlefield with cheap disposable attack drones.

Drop to another third of the price, around a tenth of a Sidewinder, and strap on several stingers. $38k a shot is almost affordable. But your opponent has those too, the skies'll be raining shrapnel and UAVs for the first few hours of a shooting war.

At which point air attacks become as simple as they are now. CAS looks like it's now a drone game, but circle around the lines, go deep, take out ammunition dumps, fuel stores, HQs, rail yards, oil refineries.. air power has range and precision, and those just aren't going out of fashion.

Even now Ukraine has too many miles of front to defend. Quite why Russia can't or haven't found the gaps in air defences at the borders and front lines and used those as channels to hit strategic targets is confusing.

I think a NATO combined air assault on armed forces equipped/fighting as the two countries in Ukraine are would still succeed, and without supplies the artillery is just a heavy trailer.

U.S. is doing a LOT of work on lasers for anti drone work. It is the only way to get the range needed at a bearable cost per shot. In the meantime the applicable cost ratio is not the value of the drone that you are shooting the expensive missile at, but the cost of belling shelled by drone observed/corrected artillery fire, which can be rather high. That is just the current state of play.

The Russian air force has just not been capable of complex operations in this war. The several zillion dollar question whether that is because of corruption and incompetence, or has the balance shifted, and Iraqi Freedom type air ops just aren't possible anymore.

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

I'm sure our forces would be taking heavy (for our standards) losses too just minus the incompetent losses that the Russians took, which makes up a big portion of losses. The Ukrainian meme where the guy says "we are so lucky they are stupid" comes to my mind. lol.. but I think that had to due with inexperience more so than stupidity actually maybe a little bit of both. The Ukrainians have smart leadership all across the board, where as the Russians have to learn on the job. 

As for the Israelis, what they say on theory sounds good, considering as of lately they just occupy people that don't even have an active insurgency going around, or the occasional bombing of the Syrian government forces. It's desert and open terrain for the most part in Syria and Iraq it's way easier to detect and engage forces with artillery and aviation there. I also don't believe the Iranians have the ability to invade Israel. I get the idea though, engage them before they can be a threat. Not really applicable to the style of fighting the Russians and Ukrainians got going on. The Russians just blitzed through Northern Eastern and Southern Ukraine, but didn't really prepare for heavy attrition.

The Ukrainians deny Russians air superiority not because of an integral air defense but because they use passive style, a BUK or S-300V system hiding and waiting can do some major damage to Russian aircraft who is unsuspecting. The Russians cannot afford to lose their top tier aircraft let alone CAS to the defenses of the Ukrainians. I agree that this is a major success on the Ukrainian side, if it wasn't like this it would be hell for Ukrainian defenders, the Russians got a lot of dumb bombs. If they could have SU-25s and SU-24s just using their CCIP to drop bombs from mid range I'd have to assume they would be having way more success in advancing.

 

 

I would disagree rather strongly that the Ukrainians don't have an integrated air defense.  That is WHY the VKS just cant fly over Ukr territory at all. I have a lot of question about how it works, but they are not going to answer those until the war is over, and they have a new one built with NATO tech.

[Suleyman]

Just now, dan/california said:

I would disagree rather strongly that the Ukrainians don't have an integrated air defense.  That is WHY the VKS just cant fly over Ukr territory at all. I have a lot of question about how it works, but they are not going to answer those until the war is over, and they have a new one built with NATO tech.

Better that I say like active installations, for example a S-300 site where the Russians could detect it and engage it with stand off range SEAD, and cruise missiles. I'd like to think closer to the front it's way more passive, hiding and waiting for the opportunity which in my opinion is more dangerous.

[Suleyman]

52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's claimed this is a photo of 24th Feb before attack on Hostomel

 

Question, what happened there? The Russians (VDV) took the airport then got surrounded before their ground forces came is what I heard. But I don't know the truth

Edited June 19, 2022 by Suleyman

[Haiduk]

UKR tactic of single gun usage. Several shots a crew is leaving position

 

[SeinfeldRules]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

This is obvious fake and "Victorious news". Maybe source of theese numbers is Gerashchenko, known sh...t-newsmaker.  9457 killed PMC? With their total number in Ukraine about 8000-9000 according to Russian information? Seriously? Even official number sometime looks overestimated, especially in aviation losses. But this is just "moral booster for housewives"

So that's not how I read the translated tweet provided... it's claims RuAF suffered 37, 592 "irretrievable" losses, which includes 9,457 dead within that figure, and doesn't include any data on Russian PMCs (or DPR/LPR either, presumably). I'm assuming "irretrievable" in this case means all KIA, WIA, MIA and POW. At least that's how the English version reads, not sure if the translator messed up somewhere and the context of the "dead" number is wrong

If that reading is correct, it lines up closely with Steve's post the other day on estimated casualties, once you include all branches and armies.

Edited June 19, 2022 by SeinfeldRules

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

Question, what happened there? The Russians (VDV) took the airport then got surrounded before their ground forces came is what I heard. But I don't know the truth

Hostomel was guarded with small number of personnel of 4th National Guard rapid reaction brigade. Russians seized airfield after almost all day clashes (but lost two helicopters over it and at least two more on approach). Because of mech. units were involved in fights northern, UKR forces had time to gather reinforcements and artillery and pushed off VDV (45th VDV spetsnaz brigade and 31st air-assault brigade - total 300 men in first wave) from airfield. But on next day first Russian mech.units arrived  as well as new wave of VDV, which came from Belarus on BMDs and other part probbaly again on helicopters, so after heavy fighting Russians took airfield again and seized it up to the April.    

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Interesting detail of 1 phase fighting.

[EDIT] Civilian surveillance systems is something that for sure needs to be taken in to account when fighting in the cities.

There was a very humorous video taken from one of these city systems.  It was watching a column of Russian vehicles moving through the city, then someone got smart and you could see soldiers shooting out the cameras.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

38 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Hostomel was guarded with small number of personnel of 4th National Guard rapid reaction brigade. Russians seized airfield after almost all day clashes (but lost two helicopters over it and at least two more on approach). Because of mech. units were involved in fights northern, UKR forces had time to gather reinforcements and artillery and pushed off VDV (45th VDV spetsnaz brigade and 31st air-assault brigade - total 300 men in first wave) from airfield. But on next day first Russian mech.units arrived  as well as new wave of VDV, which came from Belarus on BMDs and other part probbaly again on helicopters, so after heavy fighting Russians took airfield again and seized it up to the April.    

There is a report in US media from US military sources that Ukraine was specifically told to expect an airborne landing at Hostomel.  This could explain why the 4th National Guard unit was already in position around the airport at the time of the attack.

We also have to remember that for the first couple of days the Russians were "on autopilot", which is the normal way Russians fight.  Everything is planned in great detail and carried out according to time tables and not battlefield conditions.  To cancel or delay such an operation would require a very, very, very high level decision to be made.  The problem is that decision required the generals to realize that their plan was not going to work.  They were not mentally prepared to admit defeat only hours into their war!

Haiduk, that picture you posted is almost certainly from Hostomel assault (assuming it is not from an earlier exercise).  No other helicopter assaults of that scale were carried out.  It is an impressive display of military force!  Useless and suicidal force, but still impressive

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

So that's not how I read the translated tweet provided... it's claims RuAF suffered 37, 592 "irretrievable" losses, which includes 9,457 dead within that figure, and doesn't include any data on Russian PMCs (or DPR/LPR either, presumably). I'm assuming "irretrievable" in this case means all KIA, WIA, MIA and POW. At least that's how the English version reads, not sure if the translator messed up somewhere and the context of the "dead" number is wrong

Yes, this is how I interpreted the numbers as well.  "Irretrievable" losses is a standard way to summarize the permanent damage done to a military force.  It's the number we bean counters care most about when looking ahead to the next battle.  WIA is too vague and sometimes the totals for MIA and POW are significant.

49 minutes ago, SeinfeldRules said:

If that reading is correct, it lines up closely with Steve's post the other day on estimated casualties, once you include all branches and armies.

heh... I noticed the similarities as well

Steve