How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Are you ready to start a thread on what the next modern game might look like?

Not yet   But I can tell you that behind-the-scenes the discussions have been going on since the war started.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

the two opposing versions of socialism. National Socialism was socialism only for Germany Soviet Socialism was global. It failed because free enterprise-based economies produced better products.

Unstable systems do not produce stable results.  Neither hard right or hard left are stable systems, therefore both always fail.  It's just that sometimes they take a VERY long time to change completely.  China today, for example, is nothing like the China of Mao.  Unlike the Soviet Union it managed to morph into something that was more market based while still mostly sticking to Communist dogma.  Though it seems to me that more recently China is morphing into something that is closer to a traditionally right based autocratic state.  The line between hard left and hard right is extremely thin and very ill defined.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

The line between hard left and hard right is extremely thin and very ill defined.

it looks like China has given up on the old Mao Leninists model and follows the Nazi Germany model. I understand it as extreme right. The old communist model is followed by the new left movements. Interested in their Utopian view of the world, based on fantasy. 

[chrisl]

23 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Are you ready to start a thread on what the next modern game might look like? In particular, and related to the above, do most scenarios just have to assume that both side unmanned ISR bubbles have more or less annihilated each other in order to have an interesting game? The lesson of the Ukraine War seems to be that if one side has a drone in communication with 155/120mm mortars, and the other side doesn't that pretty much decides a given tactical action right then and there. So to build a decent scenario, either both sides have it, and things play rather quickly, or neither side does. And it is worth pointing out that for the most part neither side in the current war are using drones that are anywhere close to the state of the art. 

https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/the-spy-in-the-sky-that-sees-backwards-in-time/21809102

There are MUCH better sensor packages out there that to my (limited and public only) knowledge have not been deployed in Ukraine by either side. The Nato strategic level ISR that is being supplied to Ukraine is a different question. But for the most part they are not circling directly over the Donbas and passing intelligence in real time. 

 

Based on a lot of the video I've seen it should be a first & third-person shooter where the player cruises around in a drone-view and has the option to call in various types of scenario dependent artillery, or do a first-person attack by firing on-board rockets or dropping on-board bombs.  You can also place and move ATGM teams.  In larger scenarios you get to tab around for the view from different drones and loitering munitions and ATGM teams.  The other player gets to drive along roads or, if they want cover, into mud that immobilizes their vehicles, but never sees anything to shoot, and gets to fire rockets and artillery at scenario defined targets.  

[Battlefront.com]

This is interesting.  Some decently valid opinions expressed on Russian media:

 

[LukeFF]

On 5/6/2022 at 4:57 PM, panzermartin said:

I swear if I ever read again that the Red army was equally evil with the SS and the Wehrmacht that made my father starve as a kid and his friends getting killed while painting slogans on walls, I'm going to delete my account here. There was nothing evil with the T 34s rolling down the streets of Berlin in 1945....Their crew could have been Ukrainian, Polish, Czech... Too bad I once had fun making mods for CMBB. Some had crosses, some had red stars, noone was actually offended.

It's still a WW2 monument, not a stazi agent bust. 

Yep - they raped and pillaged the more and more as they moved westward into German territory.

Sorry if that offends your sensibilities, but the Red Army of 1945 was hardly an army of saints on white horses spreading freedom and justice wherever it went.

Edited May 8, 2022 by LukeFF

[Battlefront.com]

Related to the monument destruction discussion, an interesting compare/contrast.  Here is Russia destroying Ukrainian monuments on Ukrainian soil during a war of aggression:

Ukrainians are moving further and further away from their Soviet past, thanks to Russia's aggression:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/05/07/ukrainians-hate-stalin-see-russian-aggression-as-a-genocide/?swcfpc=1

Quote

An example of this is the rate of nostalgia for the collapse of the USSR: in Russia, it has mostly been increasing over the past ten years (since 2010, this indicator increased from 55% to 63%), while in Ukraine, it decreased (from 46% in 2010 to 11% in 2022). As a result, Ukrainian national heroes and symbols have begun replacing once significant and imposed by Soviet propaganda historical figures. Thus, as of the end of April 2022, the lowest level of nostalgia for the collapse of the USSR over the history of observations was recorded in Ukraine (11%). The vast majority of the respondents – 87% – do not miss the USSR.

 

[Battlefront.com]

This should please our Ukrainian friends here... the word is getting out in the West that Russia's primary desire is to wipe out Ukraine in all ways and take its territory/resources for its own uses:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/essay/the-war-in-ukraine-is-a-colonial-war

Steve

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

My guess is these guys are part of the hardline nationalists who have worked to rewrite Soviet history to provide modern Russia with a proud history from which to tie the current regime directly to.  This is akin to social conservatives (of any nation, BTW) creating a very distorted view of their own history to promote themselves.  "Here is our glorious past and only with our leadership and guidance can we again return to better times!"

From my own country this is similar to the movement of social conservatives in the 1970s and 1980s to promote a return to the 1950s "Family Values".  A time, as they argued, when the American family was strong and cohesive.  Never mind that women were expected to be submissive and stay at home.  Never mind that men cheating on their wives was culturally acceptable as long as they didn't get caught.  Never mind that wives and children were systematically abused mentally and/or physically without much recourse.  Never mind that a large portion of the marriages were loveless and the wife stayed only because she felt she had no choice.  Never mind that families that were mixed race or religions were discriminated against, if not outright illegal.  Never mind... well... I think you guys get my point.  In case you don't, movements like Putin are not dissimilar from other hard right movements in pretty much any country out there.

And if any of you are thinking I'm picking on the political right, you are wrong.  Putin's government is Fascist and Fascism is the extreme personification of what is generally classified as "conservatism".  The two are not separable.  In fact, if you look at Putin's government's stance on Russian family you will see that it is nearly identical to the American "Family Values" movement.  That is not a coincidence.

Now, if if Russia was an extreme Socialist (left) state then I'd be talking about how it mimics the hard left movements in other countries.  They rewrite history as well, but not in the same way.  Left extremes tend to spend most of their time envisioning the future instead of dwelling on the past.  Rewriting the past is generally done to justify major change to the status quo.  It is, in no small way, the exact opposite of conservatism.  Which is why it is not applicable to this conversation.

Steve

“Nothing is more responsible for the good old days than a bad memory.”

-Generally attributed to Franklin Pierce Adams, but multiple potential alternate original sources.

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Unstable systems do not produce stable results.  Neither hard right or hard left are stable systems, therefore both always fail.  It's just that sometimes they take a VERY long time to change completely.  China today, for example, is nothing like the China of Mao.  Unlike the Soviet Union it managed to morph into something that was more market based while still mostly sticking to Communist dogma.  Though it seems to me that more recently China is morphing into something that is closer to a traditionally right based autocratic state.  The line between hard left and hard right is extremely thin and very ill defined.

Steve

Definitely. Dogmatic mindsets, stifling dissenting voices that might have something of value to add and believing one's own propaganda are not, to put it in evolutionary terms, adaptive traits. Over time, the cracks set in...

As for China, I think they might currently be about as close as one can get to the midpoint of the proverbial "horseshoe." Kind of the the hard-authoritarian middle of the road if you will...

Edited May 8, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Aragorn2002]

On 5/7/2022 at 1:57 AM, panzermartin said:

I swear if I ever read again that the Red army was equally evil with the SS and the Wehrmacht that made my father starve as a kid and his friends getting killed while painting slogans on walls, I'm going to delete my account here. There was nothing evil with the T 34s rolling down the streets of Berlin in 1945....Their crew could have been Ukrainian, Polish, Czech... Too bad I once had fun making mods for CMBB. Some had crosses, some had red stars, noone was actually offended.

It's still a WW2 monument, not a stazi agent bust. 

The Red army was equally evil with the SS and the Wehrmacht. Bye bye.

[Reclaimer]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is interesting.  Some decently valid opinions expressed on Russian media:

 

It was super jarring to watch that comparatively sober assessment against their constant backdrop of “look how powerful we are” military footage (with the video even projected onto the floor!).

[Aragorn2002]

7 minutes ago, Reclaimer said:

It was super jarring to watch that comparatively sober assessment against their constant backdrop of “look how powerful we are” military footage (with the video even projected onto the floor!).

Suspicious as I am, I wonder why they are showing this. Is this guy really that brave or is he part of preparing the people for the next phase? You never know with Russians.

[Offshoot]

More likely he is a part of trying to pacify the masses against mobilization hysteria.
I guess Russia doesn't want another rush for the border.

[Battlefront.com]

From May 7th ISW update:

Quote

This Ukrainian offensive is likely intended to push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv city and drive to the border of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast. As ISW previously forecasted, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is forcing Russian units intended for deployment elsewhere to redeploy to the Kharkiv front to halt Ukrainian attacks. Given the current rate of Ukrainian advances, Russian forces may be unable to prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border, even with additional reinforcements. Ukrainian forces are not directly threatening Russian lines of communication to Izyum (and ISW cannot verify claims of a separate Ukrainian counteroffensive toward Izyum at this time), but the Ukrainian counteroffensive demonstrates promising Ukrainian capabilities and may set conditions for further offensive operations into northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.

It seems that ISW is confirming what we've concluded here, which is Russia's lines are thinly held by poor quality troops.  They are unable to withstand concentrated offensive operations on their own and functional reinforcements are simply unavailable.  Just like Kyiv, Russia has a choice of withdrawing with some hope of retaining their forces or probably losing a large portion by ordering them to stay in place.

People who are surprised by rapid shifts in battlefield reality don't seem to understand that it happens quite often.  We already saw it happen in the north of Ukraine when Russia retreated from it.  Another way terrain shifts quickly is when a relatively small force acts boldly against an opponent that is unprepared/unable to defend its frontage.  The small attacking force can't be stopped and that in turn unhinges a much larger section of front.  When that happens the attacker does not need a equally bold, or even equal quality, force to advance along a broad front.  It just needs enough equipment and logistics for rapid advance.  Leadership is quite critical here as well because time is precious.  Hesitation, for any reason, increases the chances of missed opportunities.

This principle has been around for eons in various forms and it works VERY well provided the circumstances on the defender's side are compatible with such an attack.  Russia assumed these conditions would exist for them when launching the war and they were wrong.  By contrast, the conditions seem to exist for Ukraine around Kharkiv and that is why they are able to secure so much territory so fast with apparently a modest sized attacking force.

I'm very curious to know how many other sectors of front resemble those around Kharkiv.  It looks like Izyum might be following the same path, maybe a few spots between the Dnepr and Donetsk.  There are likely lots of smaller spots along the rest of the front that are possibilities, but either the general Russian weakness isn't as pronounced or Ukraine doesn't have the resources to sustain a significant push.  The more confident Ukraine gets, the more it moves resources to where they are needed, the more sectors of front will fail to resist Ukrainian advances.  And the more of this that happens concurrently, the greater the chances of the Russian collapse being much more strategic in nature.

This week is going to be particularly interesting I think.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, Reclaimer said:

It was super jarring to watch that comparatively sober assessment against their constant backdrop of “look how powerful we are” military footage (with the video even projected onto the floor!).

It could be the beginning of a new push by Putin to lower expectations for full mobilization.  Prior to this the messaging is "we don't need to because we're already winning the war", now it might be shifting to "we don't need to because it won't help us win the war".  Since the first message was obviously intended to keep various Russian segments from thinking mobilization is around the corner, but with the war so obviously failing maybe he's finding that messaging isn't working.  Though this particular media assessment goes way beyond that and suggests that Russia's at a military dead end.  I see how that message helps Putin at all, so it could be this guy's views went too far or they are the views of some group looking to replace Putin.

Whatever the case might be, it certainly is an interesting thing to see on Russian state media.  Therefore, it must have significance.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

More likely he is a part of trying to pacify the masses against mobilization hysteria.
I guess Russia doesn't want another rush for the border.

Hah!  You ninja'd me

Steve

[chuckdyke]

Gettysburg revisited instead of attrition against fixed lines of defense, turn away with some of your forces to force a defender to give up his position. 

[BornGinger]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Related to the monument destruction discussion, an interesting compare/contrast.  Here is Russia destroying Ukrainian monuments on Ukrainian soil during a war of aggression:

They are just following the stupid political correctness trend that have seen statues being toppled over in other European countries, and also in USA if I'm correct. The Russians are showing that they are exactly like the rest of that rabble and hope to be taken seriously by doing this.

Edited May 8, 2022 by BornGinger

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

They are just following the stupid political correctness trend that have seen statues being toppled over in other European countries, and also in USA if I'm correct.

You are incorrect.  Taking down monuments that were erected by traitors (all Southerners who fought for the Confederacy are, by definition, traitors) and racist overlords in order to maintain psychological domination over "lesser races" should be removed because they should never have been allowed to be erected in the first place.  Taking them down is not an act of "political correctness", it is righting a wrong. 

Why the US military allowed its bases to be named after traitors who fought against the US military is astonishing.  Especially because some of those generals weren't even good at their jobs.  Purging those names was long overdue.

11 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

The Russians are showing that they are exactly like the rest of that rabble and hope to be taken seriously by doing this.

Er, are you equating Russian fascists, who have been raping, murdering, and blowing up Ukraine in a deliberate and coordinated state effort to eradicate an entire people from the face of the Earth, with people exercising their free speech and exercising legally available channels (for the most part) in democratic countries?  Just making sure I am understanding what you are saying.

Steve

[Canada Guy]

China has not been left leaning since the 1980s. There is a story of Chinese farmers coming to Canada to view Canadian farms in the 1990s to see how to improve Chinese farms. The Chinese ended up lecturing the Canadian farmers on how to make more money through diversification. 

They have become yet another hyper-capitalist right wing regime looking to make money and hold on to power. They have learned though that running a kleptocracy will lead to worse outcomes for all and so factions play lip service to leftist ideals while still running a highly stratified society. Gini is 0.481 - highly inequal. But like Russia, the military is a way for the poor to escape poverty. Those units in Tiananmen Square were not locals.

[G.I. Joe]

Since monuments came up again, this has got to be the best response to a Lenin statue ever...

Ukraine: Lenin statue given Darth Vader makeover - BBC News

[Aragorn2002]

17 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Gettysburg revisited instead of attrition against fixed lines of defense, turn away with some of your forces to force a defender to give up his position. 

Possible, but given the clumsiness of the Russian army so far probably much too complicated for them to perform. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Canada Guy said:

China has not been left leaning since the 1980s.

Not entirely from what I've noted over the years.  The Communist dogma still existed, but it's been steadily eroded by the need to develop a more market based economy (which requires a more marked orientated population).  Now it's more about the party as an entity than an ideological belief.  Worryingly, it's becoming increasingly about the Xi personally.  At least that's my take on it, though I readily admit my focus is on Russia so I could be quite a bit off on this.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Possible, but given the clumsiness of the Russian army so far probably much too complicated for them to perform. 

It's something the Ukrainian army may do. Mmmm Kursk is not too far away lol .

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Since monuments came up again, this has got to be the best response to a Lenin statue ever...

Ukraine: Lenin statue given Darth Vader makeover - BBC News

Lol!