How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

On the Polish twitter there was information about protests by soldiers of Ukrainian 93  mechanised and 79 airborne brigades rotated out of line, who voiced their dissatisfaction with the conditions in which they had been fighting (lack of support, bad leadership). They had been fighting very hard, so some morale problems probably were bound to happen sooner or later.

 

[Armorgunner]

Switchblade 300 used in Ukraine! And below RK-3 Corsar hit targets x2

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

On the Polish twitter there was information about protests by soldiers of Ukrainian 93  mechanised and 79 airborne brigades rotated out of line, who voiced their dissatisfaction with the conditions in which they had been fighting (lack of support, bad leadership). They had been fighting very hard, so some morale problems probably were bound to happen sooner or later.

 

Yeah, the 79th AB had to stall and roll with the Russian left hook from Kreminna to Lyman.

This is probably an example of a fluid situation where you really need some armour 'linebackers' to support the poor bloody infantry.  Rocketeers can't do everything.

Also, pretty hard for UA logistics to keep pace with that fluid front while also sustaining the battered resistance line at Rubizhne and south.

And 93rd mech had it hard as well. Let's see how quickly that ranging boot goes onto the other foot....

 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[billbindc]

 

[Huba]

32 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

On the Polish twitter there was information about protests by soldiers of Ukrainian 93  mechanised and 79 airborne brigades rotated out of line, who voiced their dissatisfaction with the conditions in which they had been fighting (lack of support, bad leadership). They had been fighting very hard, so some morale problems probably were bound to happen sooner or later.

 

@Haiduk pasted a testimony "from the trench" a week or so ago, written in that grim spirit. Can't imagine anybody being happy after spending 2 months on the front...

[LongLeftFlank]

On 5/1/2022 at 2:44 PM, Combatintman said:

Not sure I understand the question but the original map said that the intact bridges were the green shaded area which is slightly south of the actual bridges where there is a a mobility corridor marking in blue in the correct place for the bridges.  Hopefully this answers the question ...

 

Action at that hydro site you tagged last week?

Ah, never mind. The powerhouse layout is superficially similar but the surrounding terrain is all wrong. No third act for me in imagery analysis lol.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[BeondTheGrave]

https://www.kyivpost.com/eastern-europe/kremlin-to-family-members-of-moskva-cruiser-crew-ship-sank-by-accident-no-war-compensation.html

The real reason why Russia declared Moskva an accident? 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

26 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

 

...or if you don't like 70s art rock, there's Waylon Jennings

 

Bonus Russian dark humour:

 

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[akd]

Said to be Switchblade strike:

Just before explosion, an object can be seen coming into frame and casting a shadow down onto the ground, which would indicate an airburst short of the target:

[billbindc]

 

 

[The_Capt]

10 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So what does this mean for you and your countrymen, DNS? Others here have urged you to refuse and resist as much as you can, which sure, is very easy for us to preach from our comfortable keyboards, risking no harm to ourselves or our families.

...As an expat myself, I might suggest you and other highly intelligent and 'cosmopolitan' Russians to study which metro areas of your country (hint: not Moscow or Petrograd!) are likely to do well out of the next decade, and consider relocating there with your family, formally or informally. I'd personally head for the Kuban 'sunbelt' but that's of course personal choice and costs of living there are high. Karelia or Pskov, or maybe even Belgorod might also do well

Ya, can't let this one slide.  This was a really good post but it fails right about here because it misses a major point.  First off I do not subscribe to the "every able body Russian should take their suitcases of money and flee to a less inconvenient locale (i.e. "sunbelt)".  This is frankly insensitive and demonstrates a serious western bias: when the going gets tough, well just move to Hawaii in your yacht and sip Mai Tais...it will be fine.  What about the rest who cannot afford to move?..."oh I am sure they will figure it out".

You make a solid case for a fracturing of the Russian Federation as a result of this, and a severe risk of "significant civil violence".  I will simply state it, we are talking about a significant risk of another Russian Civil War here.  You note "lack of Moscow military power" as reason this will be avoided, well 1) Will is the primary determiner of civil war, not military power.  Savage civil wars have waged with a lot less than what Moscow will have left, and 2) the unfortunate reality of a civil war in a state that has the majority of the worlds nuclear weapons.  We came close to this during the break up of the Soviet Union but saner heads prevailed; we have no guarantees this time.

I very much think that a NATO v Russia global nuclear war is an extremely low probability.  However, a nation in a civil war, cannot guarantee the security of that arsenal and even a small nuclear exchange has global impacts (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00794-y).  So what?  Well, here we need to recognize a harsh truth - none of us are "safe at our keyboards" in this thing.  The stakes are much higher than the normal western ennuie of "war somewhere over there, donate to charity, feel bad and change the channel).  So, no, do not "move to the sunbelt", try and do something about it.

I am a veteran of two separate wars, both civil in nature, and know exactly what risks we are asking Russian's to take here. However, the risks of "not doing anything" is frankly what got them into this fix in the first place.  And there is a risk of a lot more than "trouble over there" at stake here.  This is why I keep coming back to "Russia needs to figure out how to lose this war and survive".

As to resistance, well simply coming on this board and being exposed to the truth, or at least "other facts" is a first important step.  DMS lives in a country where publicly saying "war" is outlawed and they are being lied to daily on their mainstream media.  My advice is to "get the word out" any way you can as an important first step.  There is opposition to this war in Russia, and there is opposition to the current regime...it needs all the help it can get.

We are a small little wargame forum in a great big dangerous world.  But it is a platform to exchange ideas and voice apolitical opinions freely (well we do have limits), which in this day and age is hard to find.  In a perfect world every Russian would read this website and what we did here and at least a few would go "huh?  Wait a minute."  That would be enough for a start.

Edited May 6, 2022 by The_Capt

[LongLeftFlank]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya, can't let this one slide.  This was a really good post but it fails right about here because it misses a major point.  First off I do not subscribe to the "every able body Russian should take their suitcases of money and flee to a less inconvenient locale (i.e. "sunbelt)".  This is frankly insensitive and demonstrates a serious western bias: when the going gets tough, well just move to Hawaii in your yacht and sip Mai Tais...it will be fine.  What about the rest who cannot afford to move?..."oh I am sure they will figure it out".

You make a solid case for a fracturing of the Russian Federation as a result of this, and a severe risk of "significant civil violence".  I will simply state it, we are talking about a significant risk of another Russian Civil War here.  You note "lack of Moscow military power" as reason this will be avoided, well 1) Will is the primary determiner of civil war, not military power.  Savage civil wars have waged with a lot less than what Moscow will have left, and 2) the unfortunate reality of a civil war in a state that has the majority of the worlds nuclear weapons.  We came close to this during the break up of the Soviet Union but saner heads prevailed; we have no guarantees this time.

I very much think that a NATO v Russia global nuclear war is an extremely low probability.  However, a nation in a civil war, cannot guarantee the security of that arsenal and even a small nuclear exchange has global impacts (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00794-y).  So what?  Well, here we need to recognize a harsh truth - none of us are "safe at our keyboards" in this thing.  The stakes are much higher than the normal western ennuie of "war somewhere over there, donate to charity, feel bad and change the channel).  So, no, do not "move to the sunbelt", try and do something about it.

I am a veteran of two separate wars, both civil in nature, and know exactly what risks we are asking Russians to take here. 

This is why I keep coming back to "Russia needs to figure out how to lose this war and survive".

1.  Hmm, while I am not the veteran of two  wars, I have also seen a little of life, including teaching school to war refugee kids for a period (the country in question used to be called Burma).

And getting yourself and your loved ones out of the way of the war (and its devastating aftermath, which was my primary point) if you can possibly do so isn't merely a 'Western' thing.

Meanwhile, the poor or ill informed or merely unlucky suffer what they must.

Standing up to evil like Pastor Boenhoeffer is probably saintly and brave, but also likely to end the way he did. Not everyone is up for that.  But we are all making plans for Nigel here. He should speak for himself

P.S.  I am probably misrepresenting your response, but I think you're misrepresenting my post as well.

2.  So sure, the stakes in a civil war are substantial, possibly existential. What does that imply for the war aims of Ukraine and its Western backers?

Edited May 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

On the Polish twitter there was information about protests by soldiers of Ukrainian 93  mechanised and 79 airborne brigades rotated out of line, who voiced their dissatisfaction with the conditions in which they had been fighting (lack of support, bad leadership). They had been fighting very hard, so some morale problems probably were bound to happen sooner or later.

 

Looks like this is fake. 

1. watermark of TG @Holodniyyar channel, which as if belongs to 93rd brigade "Kholodnyi Yar". But this brigade doesn't use Telegram. This is fishing channel of Russian PsyOps. It's ridiculous this channel is in Russian.

2. At the start of video soldier says "We are fighters of rifle military unit [WTF?] А7085, 1st Vinnytsia rifle battalion of Armed Forces of Ukraine..."

There is no m/u A7085 in AFU. There is A0785 exists, but in Kharkiv, not Vinnytsia and this is not "rifle battalion", but Kharkiv Institute of tank troops.

"Vinnytsia rifle battalion" could be National guard unut - 40th regiment of NGU, which has rifle battalion in composition, but regiment has number m/u 3008 (without "A"), battalion hasn't own m/u number, because it not separate

Good try. But not. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

 

 

Are there ships in ARMA3? %) 

Operative command "South" made official statement three hours ago: "IN PRESENT TIME we don't confirm any ship hit near Zmiinyi"

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

40 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1.  Hmm, while I am not the veteran of two  wars, I have also seen a little of life, including teaching school to war refugee kids for a period (the country in question used to be called Burma).

And getting yourself and your loved ones out of the way of the war (and its devastating aftermath, which was my primary point) if you can possibly do so isn't merely a 'Western' thing.

Meanwhile, the poor or ill informed or merely unlucky suffer what they must.

Standing up to evil like Pastor Boenhoeffer is probably saintly and brave, but also likely to end the way he did. Not everyone is up for that.  But we are all making plans for Nigel here. He should speak for himself

P.S.  I am probably misrepresenting your response, but I think you're misrepresenting my post as well.

2.  So sure, the stakes in a civil war are substantial, possibly existential. What does that imply for the war aims of Ukraine and its Western backers?

I actually thought the majority of your post was spot on to be honest.  I am no economics expert, but a lot of the trade implications aftermath resonated.

I also get that not everyone is going to be able to start insurgency operations (although based on the industrial accident rates in Russia right now, I am starting to wonder if someone has) but “resistance to tyranny” is not only an individual choice, it is a responsibility if one wants to live in a free democracy (and frankly we in the west should pay attention as Russia is what real tyranny looks like).  How that resistance is conducted is again very much an individual effort, until it links up and then it can become something else.  My point is that unless a reader is a Russian citizen who is fine with the slow but steady decent into exactly what your post outlines very well, they need to do more than simply keep their heads down.  

Russia does not have anything like a functioning democracy so simply “voting” out a terrible and corrupt regime is off the table.  So resistance needs to happen by other means, big and small.  Russians themselves likely know what that looks like and are in a better position to do so…my point is, do so.  Russian needs “saintly and brave” to stop this war and return it to a internally functioning and contributing nation internationally before it falls apart.  Much like Ukraine is demonstrating saintly and brave everyday, Russian opposition to this war needs to step up and try and take their nation back.  I would argue this current war is more existential for Russia than it is for Ukraine right now. 
 

What this implies for the West and Ukraine is that we also need Russia to figure out how to lose this war and survive, very much preferably with Putin and his gang in prison (or the ground).  Our best case scenario right now, if Russia cannot do regime change, is the Chinese gas station, which is not wonderful.  Worst case, you pretty much outlined in your original post.

Edited May 6, 2022 by The_Capt

[c3k]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Said to be Switchblade strike:

Just before explosion, an object can be seen coming into frame and casting a shadow down onto the ground, which would indicate an airburst short of the target:

 

Honestly...not impressive. There's no way to tell where the aimpoint/desired impact point was, but if I were operating a remote-flown 40mm grenade, I'd try to drop into the fighting pit/embrasure entrance where the 2 or 3 soldiers were standing.  NOT short of the embrasure.

An airburst in front of a covered fighting position does not seem like it would have much effect. (Assumption: the overhead cover is actually "cover" and not "concealment".)

Edited to add: if there were someone under that shelter (<- to avoid characterizing it as either cover or concealment), then it seems likely that the airburst may have caused a casualty. Hard to tell with the editing. But, yes, definite airburst.

Edited May 6, 2022 by c3k

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I actually thought the majority of your post was spot on to be honest.  I am no economics expert, but a lot of the trade implications aftermath resonated.

I also get that not everyone is going to be able to start insurgency operations (although based on the industrial accident rates in Russia right now, I am starting to wonder if someone has) but “resistance to tyranny” is not only an individual choice, it is a responsibility if one wants to live in a free democracy (and frankly we in the west should pay attention as Russia is what real tyranny looks like).  How that resistance is conducted is again very much an individual effort, until it links up and then it can become something else.  My point is that unless a reader is a Russian citizen who is fine with the slow but steady decent into exactly what your post outlines very well, they need to do more than simply keep their heads down.  

Russia does not have anything like a functioning democracy so simply “voting” out a terrible and corrupt regime is off the table.  So resistance needs to happen by other means, big and small.  Russians themselves likely know what that looks like and are in a better position to do so…my point is, do so.  Russian needs “saintly and brave” to stop this war and return it to a internally functioning and contributing nation internationally before it falls apart.  Much like Ukraine is demonstrating saintly and brave everyday, Russian opposition to this war needs to step up and try and take their nation back.  I would argue this current war is more existential for Russia than it is for Ukraine right now. 
 

What this implies for the West and Ukraine is that we also need Russia to figure out how to lose this war and survive, very much preferably with Putin and his gang in prison (or the ground).  Our best case scenario right now, if Russia cannot do regime change, is the Chinese gas station, which is not wonderful.  Worst case, you pretty much outlined in your original post.

Yeah, and much respect to you as a better Canadian than me. It's pretty clear from reading your stuff that you could have made a lot of money with your brainpower in the private sector, but instead you chose to serve the country. Many thanks.

....So service and self sacrifice comes naturally to you, of course, which is the spirit in which I read your response after thinking about it. But that makes you an exception.

And if I can't have a million courageous martyrs, I'll settle for a million bright pragmatical cowards like me (lol) voting with their feet and not being part of the machine.

Peace out!

[Huba]

Some mobilization related documents reportedly started to circulate in Russia:

 

[Huba]

Russian MLRS strikes UA S300. Quite impressive:

 

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Some mobilization related documents reportedly started to circulate in Russia:

 

Word is that they are. I suspect that the actuality will be somewhat different than the announcement...as in 'mobilization' will mean very different things in different regions. In larger terms, Russia is going to do exactly what it is already doing in relation to the sanctions regime. That is, Putin will attempt to put off the inevitable by expending resources right away knowing that unless a deus ex machina appears Russia will suffer more for it later. 

Just imagine what hyperinflation and a bleeding ulcer of a war are going to do to the sinews of Russian state? 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

On the Polish twitter there was information about protests by soldiers of Ukrainian 93  mechanised and 79 airborne brigades rotated out of line, who voiced their dissatisfaction with the conditions in which they had been fighting (lack of support, bad leadership). They had been fighting very hard, so some morale problems probably were bound to happen sooner or later.

 

There was an important British Study in WW1 that concluded, from memory, that ~50 days in the trenches is as long as a unit can remain combat effective. The stress just literally becomes unbearable after that. These guys have been pushed to that limit, The good news is that the Ukr had the resources to rotate them out, finally. 

[Huba]

Just now, billbindc said:

Word is that they are. I suspect that the actuality will be somewhat different than the announcement...as in 'mobilization' will mean very different things in different regions. In larger terms, Russia is going to do exactly what it is already doing in relation to the sanctions regime. That is, Putin will attempt to put off the inevitable by expending resources right away knowing that unless a deus ex machina appears Russia will suffer more for it later. 

Just imagine what hyperinflation and a bleeding ulcer of a war are going to do to the sinews of Russian state? 

I read yesterday (I think it was one of Kamil Galeev's rants) that partial mobilization might be a solution, as it would have less impact overall, no pissed off recruits would be going through Moscow etc. And it would provide plenty of cannon fodder anyway. No idea if in Russia there's a legal framework for doing it piecemeal?
Tension is raising begore the 9th, that's for sure.

[FancyCat]

4 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

When does playing the guilt card against the Germans ever stop? Germany has paid a huge price, also in compensations and is now a very different country. Countries like Poland and Greece have been compensated, but their hunger for money can never be satisfied. To expect  Germany to be the financier of the rest of Europe forever is not only unjust, but also cheap.

Let the Russians pay for Ukraine.

Germany benefits a lot from the trade imbalance and EU.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eurozone-problem-country-germany-coronavirus/

Of course the above article does not apply to Ukraine, but the boatloads of Russian gas and oil that help feed Germany do, and fed Russian delusions about European inaction do.

End of the day tho, investing in Ukraine, and assisting the European south, aside from being the right thing to do, will ultimately ensure the economic growth and prosperity that the EU is associated with remains true.

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

I read yesterday (I think it was one of Kamil Galeev's rants) that partial mobilization might be a solution, as it would have less impact overall, no pissed off recruits would be going through Moscow etc. And it would provide plenty of cannon fodder anyway. No idea if in Russia there's a legal framework for doing it piecemeal?
Tension is raising begore the 9th, that's for sure.

Legal structures only really matter to the regime to the degree that they affect legitimacy in the centers of power. Coopted bourgeois in Moscow aren't going to give a damn if boys in the Caucasus are going to war while their sons are not. Is that sowing the seeds of bigger peripheral problems later? Probably. But at this point, Putin is reduced to accepting future crises if only to delay the onset of the present one.

[Huba]

Assuming that's true, Ukrainians have taken control of the direct road from Kharkhiv to Staryi Saltiv - great news!

Edited May 6, 2022 by Huba